1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic petroleum asphalt futures options will be listed on September 10, with the first - day listing of option contracts corresponding to BU2512 and BU2601 [1]. - It is expected that both supply and demand of asphalt will increase. The supply in Q4 is expected to maintain year - on - year growth but with a lower growth rate compared to Q3. The destocking amplitude in Q4 will increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. The average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is estimated to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $63 per barrel. The subsequent operating center of BU2512 is expected to be around 3400 yuan/ton. Different option strategies are proposed for the short - and long - term [4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Contract Design Rules - Contract subject: Petroleum asphalt futures contract (10 tons) - Contract types: Call options and put options - Trading unit: 1 lot of petroleum asphalt futures contract - Quotation unit: Yuan (Renminbi)/ton - Minimum price change: 0.5 yuan/ton - Daily price limit: The same as that of the underlying futures contract - Contract months: The nearest two consecutive - month contracts, and subsequent months will be listed on the second trading day after the open interest of the underlying futures contract reaches a certain value after settlement, with the specific value to be announced by the exchange - Trading hours: 9:00 - 11:30 am, 13:30 - 15:00 pm and other times specified by the exchange - Last trading day: The fifth - last trading day of the month before the delivery month of the underlying futures contract, which can be adjusted by the exchange according to national legal holidays - Expiration date: The same as the last trading day - Exercise price: It covers the price range corresponding to 1.5 times the daily price limit of the settlement price of the underlying futures contract on the previous trading day. When the exercise price ≤ 2000 yuan/ton, the exercise price interval is 20 yuan/ton; when 2000 yuan/ton < exercise price ≤ 5000 yuan/ton, the interval is 50 yuan/ton; when the exercise price > 5000 yuan/ton, the interval is 100 yuan/ton - Exercise method: American style. The buyer can submit an exercise application during the trading hours of any trading day before the expiration date, and can submit an exercise or waiver application before 15:30 on the expiration date - Trading codes: Call options: BU - contract month - C - exercise price; Put options: BU - contract month - P - exercise price - Listing exchange: Shanghai Futures Exchange [3] 3.2 Asphalt Market Outlook 3.2.1 Demand - Taking the "Golden September" as a boundary, the cumulative shipments of 54 asphalt sample refineries in August increased by 8% year - on - year, breaking the 7% growth bottleneck in June - July. The shipment rhythm in the first week of September slowed down compared to August, but considering the peak road construction season lasting until the mid - late fourth quarter, the impact of the slowdown is expected to be short - term. The demand for road construction is most prosperous from September to October, and the demand in the north will gradually decline in November while the south still has support. Special bonds are expected to have an incremental increase from September to October 2025, and their boost to asphalt demand is expected to be reflected in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.2.2 Supply - In terms of refinery supply, the significant increase in asphalt cracking spread means that the profit of refining asphalt by independent refineries with crude oil quotas has recovered, and the production profit of asphalt is better than that of other oil products. The supply of asphalt by independent refineries with quotas has increased significantly year - on - year. For example, the average monthly output of Jingbo Hainan's asphalt has been around 200,000 tons since 2025, a significant increase compared to the level of 8,000 tons in most months in 2024. As of the end of July this year, the cumulative import of diluted asphalt decreased by 45% year - on - year. Independent refineries without crude oil quotas face the problems of high discounts on diluted asphalt and low tax deductions, resulting in serious losses in processing diluted asphalt, and their supply has been suppressed. In terms of major refineries, Sinopec's asphalt supply has been declining year - on - year due to the shift towards deep - processing, and the decline rate has been increasing month by month, offsetting the incremental supply of PetroChina and CNOOC to some extent. The supply in Q4 is expected to maintain year - on - year growth, but the growth rate will be lower than that in Q3. The low base in Q3 2024 contributed to the high year - on - year growth rate of supply in 2025. The supply in Q3 2025 is expected to increase by 26% year - on - year (+1.6 million tons), but the monthly output of asphalt in Q4 2024 increased, and there is still a certain constraint on the increase rate considering profit and historical supply levels [6]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The estimated result of the supply - demand balance sheet shows that the destocking amplitude of refineries in Q4 2025 will be lower than that in 2024. Within the year, the destocking amplitude of the asphalt industry chain in Q4 is the strongest, with a significant increase compared to Q3. October and November are the periods with the fastest destocking speed within the year. It is expected to continue destocking in December, but the destocking amplitude will decrease significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. Considering that the inventory of the asphalt industry chain has been at a relatively low level this year, the inventory level at the end of the year is expected to decline year - on - year [10]. 3.3 Option Strategies - Taking the options corresponding to the BU2512 contract as the strategy target, combined with the fundamental forecasts of crude oil and asphalt, the subsequent operating center of BU2512 is expected to be around 3400 yuan/ton. In the short - to - medium term, there are still seasonal supporting factors for the asphalt fundamentals. After the decline of crude oil stabilizes, shallow out - of - the - money put options can be sold according to the volatility. If the futures price weakens again, a spread strategy can be adopted, that is, buying deep out - of - the - money put options for protection. In the long - term, different from the end - of - year tail - up market in 2024 caused by the unexpected destocking during the traditional off - season under the deep production cuts by refineries, the support provided by the fundamentals at the end of this year may be weaker than that in 2024 due to the year - on - year increase in refinery supply. Therefore, shallow out - of - the - money put options can be bought after the high - level decline of crude oil and the weakening of the seasonal support of asphalt fundamentals. For spot enterprises, this can control the depreciation risk caused by price drops while still retaining the opportunity to benefit from the phased upward market [10].