Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the inventory of five major steel products has started to increase. Rebar production has increased while demand has decreased, with inventory rising month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation pressure is limited due to the low absolute quantity. The decline in hot - rolled coil inventory has narrowed, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising, and the short - term inventory contradiction is limited. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from overseas (Australia and Brazil) has decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume has increased. The daily output of hot metal continues to rise, supporting the restocking demand. However, port inventory has further increased, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside is limited [4]. - For coking coal and coke, supply has gradually recovered as some coal mines resumed production, and downstream transactions have improved. With the continuous increase in the daily output of hot metal, there is a certain support for coking coal and coke, and they are expected to operate in a strong - oscillating manner [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the macro - environment improved, but the industrial supply - demand structure weakened. Rebar inventory started to increase, and the decline in hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed. Steel prices lacked upward momentum and showed an oscillating pattern [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar weekly output was 191.04 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 4.20% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 305.51 tons (up 0.33% month - on - month and up 0.53% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar increased, and the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces also increased. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased [14][15][25]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 174.96 tons (down 12.71% month - on - month and down 5.50% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 308.34 tons (down 0.78% month - on - month and up 2.41% year - on - year). The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [33]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory started to increase, with both factory and social inventories rising. Hot - rolled coil inventory decline slowed down, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising [34][39]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, both the commercial housing and land markets showed a month - on - month decline. In the automotive market, in November 2025, automobile production and sales continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year [44][47]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2606.4 tons (down 5% month - on - month and down 0.7% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2920.4 tons (up 5.95% month - on - month and up 24.59% year - on - year) [56]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 229.5 tons (up 2.07 tons month - on - month and up 5.13 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 323.27 tons (down 0.60% month - on - month and down 0.92% year - on - year) [61]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 16275.26 tons (up 1.91% month - on - month and up 8.10% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8989.59 tons (up 0.48% month - on - month and down 10.77% year - on - year) [66]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.34% (up 7.17% month - on - month and down 2.52% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.90 tons (down 11.27% month - on - month and up 10.11% year - on - year) [72]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 95.12% (up 21.42% month - on - month and up 37.72% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 85.85% (up 24.26% week - on - week and up 32.89% year - on - year) [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 45 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.69% (up 1.35% month - on - month and down 0.63% year - on - year) [81]. - **Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory decreased month - on - month, and coking plant inventory increased. Coke port inventory increased slightly, and coking plant inventory decreased [82][88]. - **Spot Price**: After the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, the price remained stable, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued [94]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil slightly contracted. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread oscillated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore slightly contracted [100][105].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The price is significantly supported by the double reduction in supply and demand, combined with the transmission effect of rising coal prices and photovoltaic industry chain prices. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise slightly with small fluctuations. The recent cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for the photovoltaic industry may stimulate polysilicon rush exports in the short term. However, due to the still sluggish demand and huge inventory, the price increase momentum is limited. The market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and the downstream production capacity is accelerating the clearance [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On January 27, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,895 yuan/ton and closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, a change of (-70) yuan/ton or (-0.78)% compared to the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 242,625 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on January 26, 2026, was 13,115 lots, a change of 144 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of January 22, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 556,000 tons, an increase of 0.18% compared to the previous week [1]. - The supply side showed a contraction trend, with the January output decreasing by nearly 20% month-on-month, and the industry operating rate dropping to a historical low [2]. - The demand side: The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13,800 - 14,000 (0) yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the photovoltaic VAT export tax rebate policy is expected to increase the short-term demand for polysilicon, and the strong polysilicon exports are expected to boost the demand side of industrial silicon. The operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly, and the organic silicon maintained the peak-shifting emission reduction policy. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed a marginal weakening trend, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be mainly stable and weak [2]. Polysilicon - On January 27, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and rose, opening at 51,990 yuan/ton and closing at 51,900 yuan/ton, a change of 0.42% in the closing price compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 41,439 (41,290 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 11,224 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N-type material was 48.00 - 57.00 (-1.50) yuan/kg, and the price of n-type granular silicon was 48.00 - 51.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 33.00, a change of 2.80% month-on-month, the silicon wafer inventory was 26.78GW, a change of 8.07% month-on-month, the weekly polysilicon output was 20,500.00 tons, a change of -4.65% month-on-month, and the silicon wafer output was 10.86GW, a change of 0.28% month-on-month [3]. - In terms of silicon wafers: The price of domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.30 (-0.03) yuan/piece, the price of N-type 210mm was 1.63 (-0.03) yuan/piece, and the price of N-type 210R silicon wafers was 1.40 (-0.03) yuan/piece [3]. - In terms of battery cells: The price of high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half-cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [4][5]. - In terms of components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N-type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N-type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short-term range operation. - Inter - period: None. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short-term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight oscillatory rise in the short term. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [6].

Core Viewpoint - Methanol futures have shown a significant upward trend, with the main contract rising by 2.69% to 2292.00 CNY/ton as of January 23 [1] Inventory and Production - As of January 22, methanol inventory at East China ports was 587,900 tons, down from 647,300 tons on January 15, a decrease of 59,400 tons [2] - Domestic methanol production facility operating rate was 77.41%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points week-on-week, but an increase of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Prices - On January 22, methanol prices in the external market increased: CFR Southeast Asia methanol closed at 321.5-322.5 USD/ton, FOB US Gulf at 94.5-95.5 cents/gallon (up 3 cents), and FOB Rotterdam in Europe at 269.5-270.5 EUR/ton (up 4 EUR) [2] Institutional Perspectives - Chaos Tiancheng Futures holds a bullish mid-term view, expecting short-term strength driven by the chemical sector, while noting limited upside above 2300 CNY due to significant feedback pressure [3] - Zhongcai Futures indicates that methanol futures are in a volatile state, with geopolitical tensions easing and supply remaining ample, leading to high inventory levels at ports and inland [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil price continues to fluctuate and consolidate. The geopolitical situation in Iran has significantly eased, and geopolitical factors have temporarily receded. The supply - demand pattern of the chemical industry is complex, and it is recommended to adopt a volatile mindset for investment [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Variety - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and oil prices continue to oscillate. The supply - surplus pattern persists, but geopolitical factors remain the short - term focus. The outlook is for a volatile trend [8]. - **Asphalt**: High valuations are gradually being revised downwards. The market is affected by factors such as OPEC+ production policies and Venezuelan oil supply, with a long - term bearish outlook and a short - term trend of volatile decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical premiums have declined. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply exerts long - term pressure, but short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The outlook is for a volatile trend [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price fluctuates widely. It is affected by factors such as the expected release of Venezuelan oil and the substitution of green energy. The current valuation is low, and it follows the movement of crude oil. The outlook is for a volatile trend [12]. - **PX**: The fundamentals are under continuous pressure, lacking upward drivers. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with PXN expected to be sorted within the range of [300, 350] [13][14]. - **PTA**: Cost support is insufficient, and downstream negative feedback is strong. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with attention paid to the support level around 5000 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port has significantly reduced inventory, and the price has risen strongly. Although high inventory may limit the increase in the short term, there is a quarterly improvement. The outlook is for a volatile trend [16][18]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand are tight, and the commodity atmosphere is favorable. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. If there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, the upward trend may continue [19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The main port inventory continues to accumulate, and the situation is difficult to reverse. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with limited rebound height [20][22]. - **Short - Fiber**: Demand sustainability is insufficient, and it fluctuates within a range. The price follows the movement of upstream raw materials, and processing fees are under some pressure [23][24]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is being compressed, and there is an expectation of processing fee repair. The absolute value follows the movement of raw materials, and the long - short position of "long PR03 and short TA03" can be continued [25][26]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is weak, and there is a long - short game in the coastal area. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [27]. - **Urea**: Agricultural demand slows down, and industrial demand is rigid. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with attention paid to downstream purchasing behavior and production enterprise order digestion [28]. - **LLDPE**: Maintenance has decreased, and the price has declined. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, with limited downward space [32]. - **PP**: There is still macro - expectation support. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, with attention paid to the impact of profit changes on maintenance willingness [33]. - **PL**: Supply has tightened. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, with weak downstream demand support [34]. - **PVC**: "Export rush" provides support, and the downward space is limited. In the long term, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the market is expected to be volatile [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is expected to run weakly. Inventory pressure is high, and profits may be squeezed [36][37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report provides inter - period spread data for multiple varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in spreads [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse receipt data for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices [39]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on inter - variety spreads such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., are presented, showing the relative price relationships between different varieties [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. With both supply and demand decreasing, combined with the upward price transmission effects of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain, price support is evident. There is short-term potential for demand growth, which will boost prices. The upward price limit depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward limit is restricted by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates in the photovoltaic industry may stimulate short-term polysilicon exports, but it may also deplete medium- and long-term demand. After polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the hope for coordinated price support was dashed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with downstream production capacity accelerating to clear. In the short term, attention should be paid to new silicon wafer quotes and the January production plan; in the medium to long term, focus on the recovery of demand and inventory clearance progress [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,605 yuan/ton and closed at 8,845 yuan/ton, a change of 140 yuan/ton (1.61%) from the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the 2605 main contract was 235,167 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on January 18, 2026, was 11,283 lots, a change of 144 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of January 15, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 555,000 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week [1]. - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. This week, polysilicon production cuts continued, providing limited support for industrial silicon demand. Organic silicon maintained a staggered peak emission reduction policy and continued self - disciplined production cuts, also providing weak support for industrial silicon demand. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable to slightly weak. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics may bring upward momentum to the demand side [1]. Supply - On the same day, a major factory in Xinjiang announced production cuts. The planned production in January is expected to decline significantly, which will positively impact the industrial silicon price. If the production cuts are effective, the supply of industrial silicon will contract significantly, and the inventory will shift from accumulation to depletion [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated upward, opening at 50,200 yuan/ton and closing at 50,505 yuan/ton, a 0.63% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The position of the main contract reached 44,571 lots (46,220 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 12,235 lots [3]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg [3]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory also increased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 321,000 tons, a 6.29% change from the previous period, silicon wafer inventory was 24.78GW, a - 5.53% change from the previous period, polysilicon weekly production was 21,500 tons, a - 9.66% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer production was 10.83GW, a 2.95% change from the previous period [3]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.49 yuan/piece [4]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.41 yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W [6]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.74 - 0.77 yuan/W [6]. - Recently, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to the minimum opening volume of the polysilicon futures 2701 contract, changing the minimum opening order quantity from 1 lot to 10 lots. The reduction of speculative funds makes the market fluctuations more in line with the supply - demand fundamentals, stabilizes the hedging effect, and strengthens the influence of industrial customers on prices [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, with the main contract expected to maintain a weak oscillation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to remain in a high - level volatile market supported by cost, and it is recommended to hold long spreads. PTA is also in a high - level volatile market driven by cost, and long spreads operation should be maintained. MEG has limited upside space and faces medium - term pressure, and short spreads operation is advised [1][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 7260, 5110, 3803, 6514, and 432.2 respectively, with daily changes of - 56, - 34, - 44, - 50, and - 3.9, and daily change rates of - 0.77%, - 0.66%, - 1.14%, - 0.76%, and - 0.89% [2] - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 894 dollars/ton, 5097 yuan/ton, 3678, 530.12 dollars/ton, and 60.98 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: The previous day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread were 363.88, 361.63, 120.64, 43.68, and - 4.34 respectively [2] 3.2 Market Dynamics - **PX**: As of January 4, the domestic PX plant operating rate was 90.4%, and the Asian PX operating rate was 80.9% [2] - **PTA**: The PTA load was 78.1%. Dushan Energy's 250 - million - ton plant restarted, Zhongtai's 120 - million - ton plant restarted at a low load, and Weilian Chemical's 250 - million - ton plant increased its load [3] - **MEG**: A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Henan stopped for catalyst replacement at the end of December 2025, with an expected duration of about 2 weeks. A 615,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Kuwait plans to stop for maintenance on January 9, with an expected maintenance duration of about one month. As of January 4, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.73% (a 1.58% increase from the previous period), and the operating load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) to ethylene glycol was 75.86% (a 0.51% decrease from the previous period) [3][4] - **Polyester**: The operating load of large domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained basically stable, with the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn at around 75% (starting from January 2026, the production capacity base of polyester industrial yarn is 3.28 million tons). As of Sunday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 90.8%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of less than 40% as of 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 57% as of 3 pm [4] 3.3 Terminal Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang - **Operating Rates**: The comprehensive operating rate of texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 74%, the comprehensive operating rate of looms dropped to 59%, and the comprehensive operating rate of dyeing remained at 69% [5] - **Raw Material Stockpiling**: Terminal factories mainly consumed raw material stocks this week, and raw material purchases were mainly for new orders. The raw material purchase volumes of terminal factories varied widely. Currently, the stockpiles of production factories are concentrated between 1 - 3 weeks, and some with more stockpiles still have 1 - 2 months' worth [5] - **Orders and Prices**: New orders in the weaving sector remained weak, with some foreign trade and spring - summer new orders being slightly followed up. The inventory of grey fabric continued to accumulate. The prices of conventional grey fabric varieties declined locally, and the nominal cash - flow losses of grey fabric widened [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX and PTA is 1, while that of MEG is 0 [6] 3.5 Views and Suggestions - **PX**: With strong cost support, long spreads should be held. After the US air - strike on Venezuela on January 3, oil prices are expected to rise in the short - term, supporting the valuation of PX. The 1 - million - ton plant of Fujia Dahua restarted, and India's GAIL purchased Middle - East PX supplies for its planned start - up in March - April. The domestic PX operating rate is 88%. For domestic PTA plants, the processing fee of the 05 contract on the futures market has risen to over 300 yuan/ton. The 2.5 - million - ton plant of Xin Fengming Phase 1 and the 1.2 - million - ton plant of Zhongtai Chemical restarted, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The overall operating rate is expected to remain at around 78% [6] - **PTA**: In a cost - driven market, the bullish pattern is difficult to disprove for now, and long spreads operation should be maintained. The situation of PTA domestic plants is the same as that mentioned for PX. The profits of polyester filament factories have been declining, leading to a decrease in operating enthusiasm, but the current decline in polyester operating rate is not significant. Coupled with the large - scale export of PTA to India in December, the PTA segment is still in a state of continuous inventory reduction [6][7] - **MEG**: Although it is affected by the rising valuation of oil and coal prices in the short - term, its medium - term trend remains weak, and short spreads operation is recommended. The domestic ethylene glycol supply remains at a high level of 73.73%. The 200,000 - ton plant of Guangxi Huayi restarted. Overseas, plants in Taiwan, China (720,000 tons), Kuwait (530,000 tons), and Iran (400,000 tons) are under maintenance. The import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline marginally in January - February. The operating rate of polyester plants is 90.8%, and the rigid demand for ethylene glycol is decreasing. The polyester load is expected to drop from 89% in January to 84% in February [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The commodity futures market shows a complex situation with different trends and investment opportunities in various sectors such as basic metals, black industry, agricultural products, and energy - chemical [1][3][4]. - Different commodities face different supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including strategies like buying on dips, short - term and long - term trading strategies, and waiting and watching [1][3][4]. 3. Summaries by Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply remains tight, and after price adjustment, the discount narrows. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 1.60%. Supply capacity increased slightly, and demand weakened. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [1]. - **Alumina**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.98%. The running capacity of alumina plants is stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants operate at high loads. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract fell 0.62%. Supply and demand are stable, and the market is expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and watch [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2605 closed unchanged. Supply increased in December but is expected to decline in January. Demand in the power sector is in the off - season, and it is expected to oscillate at high levels. It is advisable to wait and watch [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract rose 0.05%. Supply and demand are in a complex situation. The price is expected to rise, but it is recommended to wait for price corrections to enter the market [2]. - **Tin**: Market performance on Friday was weak with oscillations. Supply is tight, and inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2605 contract closed at 3122 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and watch and try to short the 2605 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2605 contract closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak, and it is advisable to wait and watch [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2605 contract closed at 1115 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and watch and try to short the 09 contract [4]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian market closed lower. Supply is in seasonal decline but increased year - on - year, and demand decreased. Oils are expected to oscillate weakly with variety differentiation [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are falling. Supply is loose in the near - term and in large supply in the long - term. The trading strategy is to trade the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America [4]. - **Corn**: Futures prices fell, and spot prices were mostly stable. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [4]. - **Sugar**: ICE and Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. The market is expected to follow the decline of international sugar, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated narrowly. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices rose. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated strongly, and spot prices fell. Supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Apples**: Futures prices fell. The total output is low, and the quality is poor. It is recommended to wait and watch [5]. Energy - Chemical - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply pressure eases, and demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **PVC**: V05 rose 0.3%. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply is tight in the short - term. It is recommended to maintain a long - term long position in PX and look for opportunities to long the processing margin of PTA 05 [7]. - **Glass**: FG05 rose 1.3%. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened. It is advisable to wait and watch [7]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short at high prices [7][8]. - **Crude Oil**: There are geopolitical events, but supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Styrene**: The main contract oscillated slightly before the holiday. Supply and demand are weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - **Soda Ash**: sa05 rose 0.6%. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints Manufacturing - Overall: In December, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 57.6%, with a change of 37.3%. Four industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 4 less than the previous month and 3 less than the same period last year [4]. - Supply: Slightly declined. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in December was 50.5, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, while 10 industries declined [4]. - Demand: Still needed improvement. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 49.6, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Three industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 12 industries declined [4]. - Inventory: Continued destocking. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in December remained flat at 47.9. Five industries saw inventory increase, and 10 industries saw inventory decrease [4]. Non - Manufacturing - Overall: In December, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 22.0%, with a change of 10.2%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 5 more than the previous month and 1 more than the same period last year [5]. - Supply: Employment remained at a low level. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in December was 45.5, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Both the service and construction sectors increased by 0.4 percentage points [5]. - Demand: Still needed improvement. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 46.3, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service sector's new orders increased by 0.2 percentage points, and the construction sector's new orders increased by 1.7 percentage points [5]. - Inventory: Continued destocking. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in December was 45.3, with no change from the previous month. The service sector's inventory remained unchanged, and the construction sector's inventory increased by 0.8 percentage points [5]. Summary by Directory Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 57.6%, with a change of 37.3%. Four industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 4 less than the previous month and 3 less than the same period last year [10]. - Non - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was at 22.0%, with a change of 10.2%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, 5 more than the previous month and 1 more than the same period last year [10]. Demand - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 49.6, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Three industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 12 industries declined. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in December was 46.3, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service sector's new orders increased by 0.2 percentage points, and the construction sector's new orders increased by 1.7 percentage points. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 10 industries declined. Pay attention to the improvement in textiles and pharmaceuticals and the decline in petroleum [16]. Supply - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in December was 50.5, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 10 industries declined. The manufacturing PMI employee index in December was 48.3, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Five industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 10 industries declined. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in December was 45.5, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service and construction sectors both increased by 0.4 percentage points. Eleven industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 3 industries declined. Pay attention to the decline in non - ferrous metals and农副食品 and the improvement in ferrous metals [25]. Price - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI ex - factory price index in December was 48.2, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. Seven industries saw their ex - factory prices improve, and 8 industries declined. In terms of profit, the profit trend in December increased by 0.4 percentage points, and the overall continued to converge. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in December was 48.3, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The service sector increased by 0.3 percentage points, and the construction sector decreased by 0.2 percentage points. Eight industries showed month - on - month improvement, and 7 industries declined. In terms of profit, the profit in December remained unchanged. The service sector decreased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction sector increased by 0.5 percentage points. Pay attention to the improvement in non - ferrous metals and the decline in petroleum [34]. Inventory - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in December remained flat at 47.9. Five industries saw inventory increase, and 10 industries saw inventory decrease. The manufacturing PMI raw - material inventory in November decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.5. Seven industries saw inventory increase, and 8 industries saw inventory decrease. - Non - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in December was 45.3, with no change from the previous month. The service sector's inventory remained unchanged, and the construction sector's inventory increased by 0.8 percentage points. Five industries saw inventory increase, and 10 industries saw inventory decrease. Pay attention to the destocking of non - metallic products and the increase in construction inventory [42]. Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts - The report provides data on the PMI of various manufacturing industries, including general equipment, special equipment, automobiles, computers, motors, pharmaceuticals,农副食品, textiles, non - ferrous metals, petroleum, chemicals, ferrous metals, non - metallic products, metal products, and chemical fiber and rubber products, showing values, month - on - month changes, three - year averages, and year - on - year changes [53][54][57][58][59][66][67][68].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Profit Trends - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 13.1% year-on-year, a significant drop from the previous value of -5.5%[5] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in November was approximately 5.7%, which is significantly lower than seasonal levels[12] - The total profit for industrial enterprises in November was 676.6 billion yuan, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2021[12] Price and Cost Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in November fell by 2.2% year-on-year, widening from a decline of 2.1% in October[9] - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue for industrial enterprises increased to 85.5 yuan, up by 0.16 yuan year-on-year[29] - The unit revenue expense for the first eleven months was 8.39 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.01 yuan year-on-year[32] Inventory Insights - As of the end of November, the inventory of finished products for industrial enterprises increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with a 0.9 percentage point rise from October[33] - The actual inventory growth rate, excluding PPI effects, was 6.8%, slightly up from 5.8% in October[33] - The PMI data indicated a divergence, showing a decrease in inventory while actual inventory levels were still rising, suggesting unclear signals regarding destocking[33] Sector Performance - The upstream mining sector showed significant improvement with revenue growth of 5.3% and profit growth of 24.4% in November[23] - The midstream intermediate goods manufacturing sector faced challenges, with revenue and profit growth rates of -10.7% and -21.2%, respectively[26] - The downstream consumer goods manufacturing sector reported a profit margin of 11.7%, but revenue and profit growth were both negative at -12.2% and -22.6%[27]