Core Insights - The caprolactam market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance due to substantial capacity expansion over the past few years, leading to intensified competition and a continuous decline in product prices [1][2] - As of November 3, the market price for caprolactam has dropped to 8,050 yuan per ton, marking a 28% decrease from the year's high of 11,225 yuan [1][2] - The industry is expected to face ongoing price declines in 2025, with analysts noting a pattern of "high opening, continuous decline" in market trends [2] Price Trends - From 2020 to 2024, the caprolactam industry's capacity is projected to increase from 4.33 million tons to 6.95 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 12.56% [2] - The price of caprolactam peaked at 11,225 yuan in mid-February 2023 but has since entered a prolonged downward trend due to weak downstream demand and external market pressures [2] - Despite temporary price increases from May to August due to favorable factors, the overall price trajectory remains downward due to significant de-stocking pressures in downstream sectors [2] Regulatory Impact - New EU regulations on per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have imposed strict limits on residual solvent content in caprolactam products, exacerbating domestic supply-demand mismatches and further driving down prices [3] Industry Profitability - The persistent low prices have severely impacted profitability across the entire caprolactam supply chain, with significant losses reported in both upstream and downstream sectors [4] - As of mid-November, the caprolactam industry is facing substantial losses, with per-ton losses exceeding 600 yuan in the latter half of the year [4] - The entire supply chain is experiencing negative margins, with upstream cyclohexanone and downstream nylon 6 products also reporting losses [4] Supply Adjustment Measures - In response to the challenging market conditions, caprolactam producers are implementing voluntary supply adjustments, including a 20% production cut to alleviate inventory and price pressures [5][6] - The industry is transitioning from a state of excess inventory to a more balanced supply-demand situation, with expectations of further price stabilization and potential increases in the near future [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, the short - term is in an adjustment phase, and there is expected to be no strong driving force in November [3]. - For copper, when the copper price drops to around 85,000 yuan/ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases, and the price has strong support at this level. However, whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient [17]. - For aluminum, the recent price increase is driven by speculative funds due to potential future supply - demand mismatches, but it contradicts the current fundamentals. The price of alumina may be weak in the short - term due to oversupply [37]. - For zinc, the TC in November has dropped significantly due to intense competition for ore at the smelting end. There is a possibility of inventory reduction in November, and the low inventory provides support for the price [60]. - For the nickel industry chain, the price of nickel ore may be supported during the rainy season in the Philippines. The new energy sector is in the peak season, but there is no upward driving force for prices. Nickel iron prices have been continuously lowered, and stainless steel spot sales are weak [76]. - For tin, the supply is weaker than demand, and the raw material problem at the supply end is difficult to solve in the short - term, so the Shanghai tin price will maintain a high - level shock [91]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply increment is stable, the demand is strong in November, and the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a shock - upward trend in the short - term [105]. - For the silicon industry chain, there is an expectation of production reduction at the industrial silicon supply end, and the demand has not improved. The fundamentals of polysilicon are still weak [116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold, and the gold - silver ratio [4]. - **Factor Analysis**: Analyzes the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, and the relationship between gold and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds [8][15]. - **Inventory Situation**: Shows the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper are provided [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotong, etc., as well as the spot premium and discount data are presented [23]. - **Import and Processing**: The copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper refined - scrap price difference are given [28][32]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory are provided [33][35]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures, LME aluminum, and alumina futures are presented [39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of East China aluminum, Foshan aluminum, etc., as well as the basis data are provided [46]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts are given [54]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [61]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SMM 0 zinc and SMM 1 zinc, as well as the premium and discount data are presented [69]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory are given [73]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures are provided [77]. - **Spot Data**: The average price of nickel spot is presented [82]. - **Downstream Situation**: The price and inventory of nickel ore, the profit rate of downstream products, and the price of nickel pig iron are analyzed [83][85][89]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium and discount, etc., are presented [96]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory are given [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided [106]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium - related products are presented [110]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and lithium carbonate social inventory are given [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures are provided [116][117]. - **Polysilicon and Downstream Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented [122][123][124]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan are given [129][141][144].

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities report indicates that Wuliangye's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1-Q3 of 2025 is 21.511 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.72%, with Q3 net profit at 2.019 billion yuan, down 65.62% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The financial statements show increasing pressure, with a significant decline in net profit for both the overall period and specifically in Q3 [1] - The company is facing external demand pressures due to a deep adjustment in the liquor industry [1] Group 2: Strategic Response - In response to external uncertainties, the company aims to consolidate its development certainty and is actively pursuing channel transformation [1] - The company is exploring new cross-border marketing models in collaboration with corporate group purchasing clients to leverage its specialized company system advantages [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Considering the relatively slow recovery of high-end demand and the company's increased efforts in inventory clearance, there is potential for a certain degree of profit recovery in the medium to long term [1] - The report maintains a "buy" rating, suggesting that the company's short-term inventory clearance efforts will help solidify its long-term development foundation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: On hold [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is still relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to significant inventory reduction in China. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous sector, lead prices may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$33.80/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 30 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,520 yuan/ton, closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 57,175 lots, a decrease of 24,547 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 77,635 lots, a decrease of 6,760 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,540 yuan/ton and a low of 17,340 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,370 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 229,675 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The absolute price strategy is neutral, and the option strategy is to wait and see [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices rose slightly, with a continued loss in domestic refined copper spot imports. Due to the US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets, the copper market is cautious. Copper prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - economic developments and the market's reaction to Fed rate cuts [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated weakly, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina has weak support at the bottom and is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum is driven by both macro and micro factors, with strong overall momentum, and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum remains tight, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel fell, while SHFE nickel rose slightly. The pressure on primary nickel inventory is increasing, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and macro - economic disturbances [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices rose, and domestic prices increased slightly. The US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets make the copper market cautious. Copper prices will likely oscillate within the current range in the short term. LME inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 521 tons to 314,341 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and BC copper remained at 12,965 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina oscillated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,814 yuan/ton, a 0.32% decline. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina's supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum has strong driving forces and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.46% to 15,140 US dollars/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.03% to 121,190 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 402 tons to 250,878 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is stable, and the new energy industry chain has a tight raw material supply. Primary nickel inventory pressure is increasing, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 770 yuan/ton to 84,935 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.5 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,080 yuan/ton. SHFE lead warrants decreased by 3,156 tons to 24,977 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20,960 yuan/ton, and the price in Nanhai increased by 20 yuan/ton to 20,890 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 2,127 tons to 67,270 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.2 million tons to 62.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons, and social inventory increased by 4,014 tons to 47,708 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 21,990 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 16.29 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 280,940 yuan/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides historical data charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It shows historical data charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Presents historical data charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Displays historical data charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Provides historical data charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Includes historical data charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience in commodity research. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The valuation is neutral, and short - term risk appetite may be affected. With the resurgence of Sino - US tariff disputes, the black sector may be affected by market risk appetite. In the short term, attention should be paid to APEC, trade negotiations, the Fourth Plenary Session, and the 15th Five - Year Plan. In the industry, it is expected that steel will return to de - stocking next week, and the demand intensity in the "Silver October" needs to be observed. Otherwise, there may be concerns about negative feedback in the off - season [2]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: With recent macro - level negative news, the market sentiment is not optimistic, and the prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon are likely to decline. The supply of silicon ferroalloy is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is neutral. The supply of manganese silicon is high, demand is average, and inventory is at a high level. Although short - term alloy plant profits are near the break - even point, there are still medium - term concerns [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the Sino - US trade friction escalated, the market risk appetite weakened. Although the spot of coking coal and coke is strong, the expectation has turned weak. The market is cautious about terminal demand after the festival. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are still tight with some support below, but the impact of steel de - stocking on them needs to be observed [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply data has not been significantly affected. The recent intensification of trade conflicts has hit risk assets, but the impact is less than in April. If there is no production reduction, high - level hot metal in the second half of the year may lead to an oversupply of iron ore in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Category Price and Spread Information - **Futures Closing Prices**: On October 10, for far - month contracts, HC2605 was 12605 yuan/ton, JM2605 was 1819 yuan/ton, RB2605 was 3159 yuan/ton, and J2605 was 3292 yuan/ton. For near - month contracts, HC2601 was 1666.5 yuan/ton, RB2601 was 3103 yuan/ton, etc. There were also corresponding changes in prices and spreads such as cross - month spreads, disk profits, and basis [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On October 10, the price of Tangshan billet was 2950 yuan/ton, Shanghai threaded steel was 3260 yuan/ton, etc., and there were corresponding price changes [1]. Market Outlook and Strategies - **Steel**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines. For arbitrage, focus on whether the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel in the 01 contract is below 150 for long - position opportunities. Conduct rolling reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines for now [6]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: Short - position allocation on rallies is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: It is advisable to wait and see mainly [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PX: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows complex trends with different product performances. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances [2][3][5]. - There are differences in the performance of the spot and futures markets, and the basis has changed in some products [2][3]. - The supply - demand relationship is a key factor affecting prices, with some products facing supply - demand contradictions [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early - started planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the spot and futures markets and an enlarged basis [2]. - Polyolefins faced a situation of weak peak - season demand, mainly with rigid procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity led to a significant increase in domestic output, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. There was inventory accumulation during the holidays, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holidays, causing price pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price dropped, and the pure benzene futures once fell below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded with the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and Sinopec's listed price remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, and the port inventory decreased. However, high imports and expected demand decline continued to drag down the market [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower, with the overall center of gravity moving down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price during the holiday was basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost of styrene. The demand was weak during the peak season, and the supply increased significantly due to the expansion of production capacity. The inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year and has shown a trend of oscillating inventory accumulation after June, suppressing the price [3] Polyester - During the holiday, the overseas oil price dropped, causing the prices of PX and PTA to weaken in the morning and then recover with the rebound of the oil price in the afternoon. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and some East China devices reduced their loads due to reasons. In the short term, PX was under pressure, and the PTA link repaired its profit. However, in the future, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical plans to carry out maintenance, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable. The near - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials is okay, and attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation will still be under pressure in the long - term [5]. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a weak fundamental situation. The main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark. In the medium - term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread is under downward pressure [5]. - The new production capacity of short - fiber is limited, and the operation rate is at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates, and the recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It is recommended to be long in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory [5]. - The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, with the cooling weather, the demand is expected to weaken. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and the processing margin is under continuous pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises carried out centralized external procurement, and enterprises had sufficient pending orders, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. Imports are expected to remain sufficient, and the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The near - term situation is weak, while the far - month outlook is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [6]. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, with high supply and great pressure on enterprise shipments. Affected by factors such as weather and logistics, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period may have ended, and the short - term boost to the market is limited. The pattern of loose domestic supply - demand of urea is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was not high, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation mode. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and the cost support was not obvious. PVC may show a weak - oscillating trend [7]. - The caustic soda futures dropped significantly. There was still the phenomenon of vehicle detention by downstream buyers, and the purchase price may be further reduced, with the inventory increasing compared with the previous period. There are small - scale maintenance plans for caustic soda in North China and East China in October, and the supply is still under high - pressure operation due to remaining profits. The liquid - caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is high, and the downstream profit is shrinking, with resistance to high prices. The weak - reality pattern continues, but the strong expectation of possible restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The price of soda ash futures was weakly operating. Before the holiday, the inventory was mainly reduced, and it increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry has changed from decreasing to increasing, and it is expected that the ignition speed will slow down in the future, with limited incremental rigid demand for heavy soda. There are few maintenance plans in October, and the industry currently has little operating pressure, with high - pressure supply. The long - term pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but caution should be exercised near the cost [8]. - The price of glass futures fluctuated narrowly. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. Some regions raised their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some engineering orders increased. The situation of whether Shahe will centrally use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously tracked. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to weak - reality trading, but with the current low valuation, the decline is expected to be limited. A low - buying strategy near the cost can be considered in the future [8]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in soda ash inventory since mid-August and the recent price rebound may not indicate a fundamental improvement in the industry, as supply remains excessive and effective destocking has not occurred [1][2][3][5]. Group 1: Inventory Trends - Soda ash factory inventory has decreased for four consecutive weeks, reaching 1.7975 million tons, down 113,300 tons or 5.93% from the historical peak of 1.9108 million tons [2]. - However, social inventory has increased to 540,000 tons, up 90,000 tons from 450,000 tons in early August, indicating a transfer of inventory rather than effective destocking [2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - There is a slight improvement in downstream demand as glass prices strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, leading to an increase in glass production [3]. - Daily production of float glass rose to 160,175 tons, up 600 tons from August, while photovoltaic glass production also increased by 600 tons to 88,780 tons [3]. - Despite the overall increase in glass production, light soda ash inventory has been accumulating, indicating limited improvement in its downstream demand [3]. Group 3: Export Considerations - Soda ash exports have significantly increased, with a total of 1.154 million tons exported from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 128.38% [4]. - However, rising domestic prices may hinder export growth, as the export price in July was approximately 1,260 yuan per ton, which could lead to diminished export profits and exacerbate domestic oversupply [4]. Group 4: Production and Supply Outlook - The summer maintenance period for soda ash plants is ending, leading to a rise in operating rates and production levels, with a record output of 761,100 tons reported [5]. - The weekly demand for heavy soda ash from glass production is estimated at 348,500 tons, indicating a surplus of approximately 73,200 tons [5]. - With new production capacities coming online and the production season starting, soda ash supply is expected to remain high, and factory inventories may begin to accumulate again [5].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged, consumption shows positive signs, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season is clear. With the weak US data and strong interest - rate cut expectations, the consumption at home and abroad is expected to strengthen seasonally. Pay attention to the destocking rhythm [6]. - The supply of alumina continues to increase, resulting in a surplus situation. Although the cost support is relatively strong and the further decline of the futures price is limited, the surplus pattern is difficult to change, and there is currently little upward momentum [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with its price following the aluminum price. The tight supply of scrap aluminum and primary aluminum supports the price, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities may be affected by the activity of aluminum alloy [9]. Group 3: Key Data Summaries Aluminum - Spot prices: East China A00 aluminum price is 20950 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Central China A00 aluminum price is 20820 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures prices: On September 15, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21140 yuan/ton, the closing price is 21020 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - Inventory: As of September 15, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 63.7 million tons, up 1.2 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory is 75085 tons, up 2616 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory is 485275 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina - Spot prices: On September 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 3015 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 2980 yuan/ton, in Henan is 3050 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 3200 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 3220 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 340 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures prices: On September 15, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 2916 yuan/ton, the closing price is 2935 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change of 0.44% [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On September 15, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminum is 16200 yuan/ton, the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminum is 16400 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation is 20600 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 7.08 million tons, and the in - plant inventory is 6.05 million tons [4]. - Cost and profit: The theoretical total cost is 20373 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 27 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic petroleum asphalt futures options will be listed on September 10, with the first - day listing of option contracts corresponding to BU2512 and BU2601 [1]. - It is expected that both supply and demand of asphalt will increase. The supply in Q4 is expected to maintain year - on - year growth but with a lower growth rate compared to Q3. The destocking amplitude in Q4 will increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. The average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is estimated to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $63 per barrel. The subsequent operating center of BU2512 is expected to be around 3400 yuan/ton. Different option strategies are proposed for the short - and long - term [4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Contract Design Rules - Contract subject: Petroleum asphalt futures contract (10 tons) - Contract types: Call options and put options - Trading unit: 1 lot of petroleum asphalt futures contract - Quotation unit: Yuan (Renminbi)/ton - Minimum price change: 0.5 yuan/ton - Daily price limit: The same as that of the underlying futures contract - Contract months: The nearest two consecutive - month contracts, and subsequent months will be listed on the second trading day after the open interest of the underlying futures contract reaches a certain value after settlement, with the specific value to be announced by the exchange - Trading hours: 9:00 - 11:30 am, 13:30 - 15:00 pm and other times specified by the exchange - Last trading day: The fifth - last trading day of the month before the delivery month of the underlying futures contract, which can be adjusted by the exchange according to national legal holidays - Expiration date: The same as the last trading day - Exercise price: It covers the price range corresponding to 1.5 times the daily price limit of the settlement price of the underlying futures contract on the previous trading day. When the exercise price ≤ 2000 yuan/ton, the exercise price interval is 20 yuan/ton; when 2000 yuan/ton < exercise price ≤ 5000 yuan/ton, the interval is 50 yuan/ton; when the exercise price > 5000 yuan/ton, the interval is 100 yuan/ton - Exercise method: American style. The buyer can submit an exercise application during the trading hours of any trading day before the expiration date, and can submit an exercise or waiver application before 15:30 on the expiration date - Trading codes: Call options: BU - contract month - C - exercise price; Put options: BU - contract month - P - exercise price - Listing exchange: Shanghai Futures Exchange [3] 3.2 Asphalt Market Outlook 3.2.1 Demand - Taking the "Golden September" as a boundary, the cumulative shipments of 54 asphalt sample refineries in August increased by 8% year - on - year, breaking the 7% growth bottleneck in June - July. The shipment rhythm in the first week of September slowed down compared to August, but considering the peak road construction season lasting until the mid - late fourth quarter, the impact of the slowdown is expected to be short - term. The demand for road construction is most prosperous from September to October, and the demand in the north will gradually decline in November while the south still has support. Special bonds are expected to have an incremental increase from September to October 2025, and their boost to asphalt demand is expected to be reflected in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.2.2 Supply - In terms of refinery supply, the significant increase in asphalt cracking spread means that the profit of refining asphalt by independent refineries with crude oil quotas has recovered, and the production profit of asphalt is better than that of other oil products. The supply of asphalt by independent refineries with quotas has increased significantly year - on - year. For example, the average monthly output of Jingbo Hainan's asphalt has been around 200,000 tons since 2025, a significant increase compared to the level of 8,000 tons in most months in 2024. As of the end of July this year, the cumulative import of diluted asphalt decreased by 45% year - on - year. Independent refineries without crude oil quotas face the problems of high discounts on diluted asphalt and low tax deductions, resulting in serious losses in processing diluted asphalt, and their supply has been suppressed. In terms of major refineries, Sinopec's asphalt supply has been declining year - on - year due to the shift towards deep - processing, and the decline rate has been increasing month by month, offsetting the incremental supply of PetroChina and CNOOC to some extent. The supply in Q4 is expected to maintain year - on - year growth, but the growth rate will be lower than that in Q3. The low base in Q3 2024 contributed to the high year - on - year growth rate of supply in 2025. The supply in Q3 2025 is expected to increase by 26% year - on - year (+1.6 million tons), but the monthly output of asphalt in Q4 2024 increased, and there is still a certain constraint on the increase rate considering profit and historical supply levels [6]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The estimated result of the supply - demand balance sheet shows that the destocking amplitude of refineries in Q4 2025 will be lower than that in 2024. Within the year, the destocking amplitude of the asphalt industry chain in Q4 is the strongest, with a significant increase compared to Q3. October and November are the periods with the fastest destocking speed within the year. It is expected to continue destocking in December, but the destocking amplitude will decrease significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. Considering that the inventory of the asphalt industry chain has been at a relatively low level this year, the inventory level at the end of the year is expected to decline year - on - year [10]. 3.3 Option Strategies - Taking the options corresponding to the BU2512 contract as the strategy target, combined with the fundamental forecasts of crude oil and asphalt, the subsequent operating center of BU2512 is expected to be around 3400 yuan/ton. In the short - to - medium term, there are still seasonal supporting factors for the asphalt fundamentals. After the decline of crude oil stabilizes, shallow out - of - the - money put options can be sold according to the volatility. If the futures price weakens again, a spread strategy can be adopted, that is, buying deep out - of - the - money put options for protection. In the long - term, different from the end - of - year tail - up market in 2024 caused by the unexpected destocking during the traditional off - season under the deep production cuts by refineries, the support provided by the fundamentals at the end of this year may be weaker than that in 2024 due to the year - on - year increase in refinery supply. Therefore, shallow out - of - the - money put options can be bought after the high - level decline of crude oil and the weakening of the seasonal support of asphalt fundamentals. For spot enterprises, this can control the depreciation risk caused by price drops while still retaining the opportunity to benefit from the phased upward market [10].