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Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in soda ash inventory since mid-August and the recent price rebound may not indicate a fundamental improvement in the industry, as supply remains excessive and effective destocking has not occurred [1][2][3][5]. Group 1: Inventory Trends - Soda ash factory inventory has decreased for four consecutive weeks, reaching 1.7975 million tons, down 113,300 tons or 5.93% from the historical peak of 1.9108 million tons [2]. - However, social inventory has increased to 540,000 tons, up 90,000 tons from 450,000 tons in early August, indicating a transfer of inventory rather than effective destocking [2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - There is a slight improvement in downstream demand as glass prices strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, leading to an increase in glass production [3]. - Daily production of float glass rose to 160,175 tons, up 600 tons from August, while photovoltaic glass production also increased by 600 tons to 88,780 tons [3]. - Despite the overall increase in glass production, light soda ash inventory has been accumulating, indicating limited improvement in its downstream demand [3]. Group 3: Export Considerations - Soda ash exports have significantly increased, with a total of 1.154 million tons exported from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 128.38% [4]. - However, rising domestic prices may hinder export growth, as the export price in July was approximately 1,260 yuan per ton, which could lead to diminished export profits and exacerbate domestic oversupply [4]. Group 4: Production and Supply Outlook - The summer maintenance period for soda ash plants is ending, leading to a rise in operating rates and production levels, with a record output of 761,100 tons reported [5]. - The weekly demand for heavy soda ash from glass production is estimated at 348,500 tons, indicating a surplus of approximately 73,200 tons [5]. - With new production capacities coming online and the production season starting, soda ash supply is expected to remain high, and factory inventories may begin to accumulate again [5].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged, consumption shows positive signs, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season is clear. With the weak US data and strong interest - rate cut expectations, the consumption at home and abroad is expected to strengthen seasonally. Pay attention to the destocking rhythm [6]. - The supply of alumina continues to increase, resulting in a surplus situation. Although the cost support is relatively strong and the further decline of the futures price is limited, the surplus pattern is difficult to change, and there is currently little upward momentum [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with its price following the aluminum price. The tight supply of scrap aluminum and primary aluminum supports the price, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities may be affected by the activity of aluminum alloy [9]. Group 3: Key Data Summaries Aluminum - Spot prices: East China A00 aluminum price is 20950 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Central China A00 aluminum price is 20820 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures prices: On September 15, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21140 yuan/ton, the closing price is 21020 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - Inventory: As of September 15, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 63.7 million tons, up 1.2 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory is 75085 tons, up 2616 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory is 485275 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina - Spot prices: On September 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 3015 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 2980 yuan/ton, in Henan is 3050 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 3200 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 3220 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 340 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures prices: On September 15, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 2916 yuan/ton, the closing price is 2935 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change of 0.44% [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On September 15, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminum is 16200 yuan/ton, the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminum is 16400 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation is 20600 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 7.08 million tons, and the in - plant inventory is 6.05 million tons [4]. - Cost and profit: The theoretical total cost is 20373 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 27 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic petroleum asphalt futures options will be listed on September 10, with the first - day listing of option contracts corresponding to BU2512 and BU2601 [1]. - It is expected that both supply and demand of asphalt will increase. The supply in Q4 is expected to maintain year - on - year growth but with a lower growth rate compared to Q3. The destocking amplitude in Q4 will increase month - on - month but decrease year - on - year. The average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is estimated to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $63 per barrel. The subsequent operating center of BU2512 is expected to be around 3400 yuan/ton. Different option strategies are proposed for the short - and long - term [4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Contract Design Rules - Contract subject: Petroleum asphalt futures contract (10 tons) - Contract types: Call options and put options - Trading unit: 1 lot of petroleum asphalt futures contract - Quotation unit: Yuan (Renminbi)/ton - Minimum price change: 0.5 yuan/ton - Daily price limit: The same as that of the underlying futures contract - Contract months: The nearest two consecutive - month contracts, and subsequent months will be listed on the second trading day after the open interest of the underlying futures contract reaches a certain value after settlement, with the specific value to be announced by the exchange - Trading hours: 9:00 - 11:30 am, 13:30 - 15:00 pm and other times specified by the exchange - Last trading day: The fifth - last trading day of the month before the delivery month of the underlying futures contract, which can be adjusted by the exchange according to national legal holidays - Expiration date: The same as the last trading day - Exercise price: It covers the price range corresponding to 1.5 times the daily price limit of the settlement price of the underlying futures contract on the previous trading day. When the exercise price ≤ 2000 yuan/ton, the exercise price interval is 20 yuan/ton; when 2000 yuan/ton < exercise price ≤ 5000 yuan/ton, the interval is 50 yuan/ton; when the exercise price > 5000 yuan/ton, the interval is 100 yuan/ton - Exercise method: American style. The buyer can submit an exercise application during the trading hours of any trading day before the expiration date, and can submit an exercise or waiver application before 15:30 on the expiration date - Trading codes: Call options: BU - contract month - C - exercise price; Put options: BU - contract month - P - exercise price - Listing exchange: Shanghai Futures Exchange [3] 3.2 Asphalt Market Outlook 3.2.1 Demand - Taking the "Golden September" as a boundary, the cumulative shipments of 54 asphalt sample refineries in August increased by 8% year - on - year, breaking the 7% growth bottleneck in June - July. The shipment rhythm in the first week of September slowed down compared to August, but considering the peak road construction season lasting until the mid - late fourth quarter, the impact of the slowdown is expected to be short - term. The demand for road construction is most prosperous from September to October, and the demand in the north will gradually decline in November while the south still has support. Special bonds are expected to have an incremental increase from September to October 2025, and their boost to asphalt demand is expected to be reflected in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.2.2 Supply - In terms of refinery supply, the significant increase in asphalt cracking spread means that the profit of refining asphalt by independent refineries with crude oil quotas has recovered, and the production profit of asphalt is better than that of other oil products. The supply of asphalt by independent refineries with quotas has increased significantly year - on - year. For example, the average monthly output of Jingbo Hainan's asphalt has been around 200,000 tons since 2025, a significant increase compared to the level of 8,000 tons in most months in 2024. As of the end of July this year, the cumulative import of diluted asphalt decreased by 45% year - on - year. Independent refineries without crude oil quotas face the problems of high discounts on diluted asphalt and low tax deductions, resulting in serious losses in processing diluted asphalt, and their supply has been suppressed. In terms of major refineries, Sinopec's asphalt supply has been declining year - on - year due to the shift towards deep - processing, and the decline rate has been increasing month by month, offsetting the incremental supply of PetroChina and CNOOC to some extent. The supply in Q4 is expected to maintain year - on - year growth, but the growth rate will be lower than that in Q3. The low base in Q3 2024 contributed to the high year - on - year growth rate of supply in 2025. The supply in Q3 2025 is expected to increase by 26% year - on - year (+1.6 million tons), but the monthly output of asphalt in Q4 2024 increased, and there is still a certain constraint on the increase rate considering profit and historical supply levels [6]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The estimated result of the supply - demand balance sheet shows that the destocking amplitude of refineries in Q4 2025 will be lower than that in 2024. Within the year, the destocking amplitude of the asphalt industry chain in Q4 is the strongest, with a significant increase compared to Q3. October and November are the periods with the fastest destocking speed within the year. It is expected to continue destocking in December, but the destocking amplitude will decrease significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. Considering that the inventory of the asphalt industry chain has been at a relatively low level this year, the inventory level at the end of the year is expected to decline year - on - year [10]. 3.3 Option Strategies - Taking the options corresponding to the BU2512 contract as the strategy target, combined with the fundamental forecasts of crude oil and asphalt, the subsequent operating center of BU2512 is expected to be around 3400 yuan/ton. In the short - to - medium term, there are still seasonal supporting factors for the asphalt fundamentals. After the decline of crude oil stabilizes, shallow out - of - the - money put options can be sold according to the volatility. If the futures price weakens again, a spread strategy can be adopted, that is, buying deep out - of - the - money put options for protection. In the long - term, different from the end - of - year tail - up market in 2024 caused by the unexpected destocking during the traditional off - season under the deep production cuts by refineries, the support provided by the fundamentals at the end of this year may be weaker than that in 2024 due to the year - on - year increase in refinery supply. Therefore, shallow out - of - the - money put options can be bought after the high - level decline of crude oil and the weakening of the seasonal support of asphalt fundamentals. For spot enterprises, this can control the depreciation risk caused by price drops while still retaining the opportunity to benefit from the phased upward market [10].

Consumption Trends - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes have increased, reflecting a positive shift in consumer sentiment, with year-on-year comparisons turning from negative to positive[6] - Tourism and movie attendance have seen a resurgence, with the tourism price index in Hainan rising by 5.6% month-on-month, indicating strong demand[6] - Textile and apparel sectors are experiencing a seasonal downturn, with sales volumes declining compared to previous weeks[6] Investment Insights - As of August 9, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 2.84 trillion, with a slowdown in issuance noted in the first week of August[17] - Real estate transactions in 30 cities have shown a month-on-month decline, with new home sales still in negative growth territory, although the rate of decline has slightly narrowed[17] - Construction progress remains slow, with asphalt construction rates falling and cement shipment rates decreasing year-on-year[17] Trade and Export Dynamics - External demand is weakening, as evidenced by the July Markit Manufacturing PMI for the US dropping to 49.8%, indicating contraction[21] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.6% week-on-week, reflecting a broader trend of declining shipping costs[21] Production and Inventory Changes - The steel industry has shown marginal improvements in production rates, with rebar and wire rod output increasing[31] - Overall inventory trends indicate a focus on destocking, particularly in the cement and asphalt sectors, while steel inventories are rising due to increased production[42] Price Movements - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a marginal decline, with most categories experiencing price drops except for seasonal increases in vegetable prices[44] - Producer Price Index (PPI) has also decreased, with industrial prices falling across most categories, particularly in construction materials[44] Liquidity and Interest Rates - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by 1.7 basis points to 1.69%, reflecting a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy[48] - The US dollar index has fallen by 42 basis points, contributing to a slight appreciation of the RMB against the dollar, from 7.21 to 7.18[48]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The steel industry is experiencing a phase of "anti-involution," which shows improvement but relies on demand support and self-driven supply-demand turning points [1][3][5] - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, with a global supply decrease of over 100,000 tons in the first half of the year, leading to a weak supply-demand balance [10][17] Key Points and Arguments Steel Industry - The steel sector performed well in the first half of 2025 due to self-driven profit points, coking coal concessions, and policy expectations [1][5] - The second half of 2025 is expected to enter a phase of anti-involution execution and production cuts, leading to a new round of profit improvement [5][6] - Current macro conditions are similar to 2021, with a demand downturn and policy speculation, but the market has found a bottom, reducing reliance on policy support [1][6] - The average daily pig iron output has not significantly decreased, indicating that production cuts have not yet been effectively implemented [6] Copper Market - The 232 tariff policy has led to high copper inventories in the U.S., resulting in a proactive destocking cycle and weakening global demand [9] - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate between $9,000 and $9,500, with a potential for a new upward cycle in 2026 if major economies experience liquidity easing [11][17] Aluminum Market - Significant increases in aluminum rod and electrolytic aluminum inventories, with weekly production nearing peak levels, may lead to price corrections, but prices are unlikely to fall below 20,000 RMB/ton [12] - High-dividend companies in the aluminum sector remain attractive for investment [12][18] Small Metals Market - Cobalt is entering a supply contraction and price increase phase, while rare earth materials are in short supply, leading to expected price increases [15][19] - Lithium carbonate and nickel are at cost support bottoms, requiring attention to supply-side changes for potential recovery [20] Other Important Insights - The current market environment is characterized as a "mid-game pause," with expectations for a turnaround in fundamentals in the second half of the year [5][7] - Investors are advised to focus on asset allocation opportunities, particularly during the economic bottoming process and under significant PPI pressure [7] - The overall sentiment in the gold market is cautious, with prices expected to remain in a range due to macroeconomic conditions [13][14] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics within the steel, copper, aluminum, and small metals markets, along with investment strategies and macroeconomic considerations.

（8月4日）全国PTA价格一 上一交易日，PTA2509主力合约下跌，跌幅2.02%，华东现货现价在4750元/吨，基差率为0.13%。 8月1日，郑商所PTA期货仓单27731张，环比上个交易日减少2007张。 PTA周均产能利用率79.67%，较上周-1.09%。国内PTA产量为142.61万吨，较上周-1.89万吨。 分析观点： 正信期货研报：8月，在检修增加的预期下，PTA市场有望由累库转向去库。尽管7月份存在部分装置检 修，但PTA供应充裕，下游需求疲软，导致库存累积。PX成本支撑也因库存压力大而显得乏力。随着8 月更多PTA装置进入检修期，预计开工率下降，供应过剩的局面将得到缓解。同时，考虑到"金九银 十"传统需求旺季即将来临，下游聚酯及纺织行业的需求有望回暖，将进一步促进库存消耗。因此，如 果检修计划兑现，并且终端需求再旺季时恢复，8月PTA市场有望实现去库，PTA价格重心或呈现窄幅 上涨。 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | | | | 等级:优等品 | ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed a significant decline, with the main contract for paraxylene (PX) opening at 6912.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of 2.44% during the trading session [1] - The price of PX fluctuated between a high of 6914.0 CNY and a low of 6804.0 CNY, indicating a weak market performance [1] - New Lake Futures noted that the fundamentals remain stable with upstream and downstream operations steady, while terminal operations show signs of recovery [1] Group 2 - Donghai Futures highlighted that the PX market remains tight, but external price declines and reduced PTA processing fees could lead to negative feedback risks for downstream operations [1] - The processing fee for PTA has dropped to a six-month low of around 150, prompting some large facilities to reduce their operating rates [1] - Wukuang Futures indicated that while PX load remains high, the end of the PTA maintenance season and recovering polyester operations suggest limited short-term negative pressure on PX [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of USD 3.14 billion for H1 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 7.7% [1]. - Normalized EBITDA for the same period was USD 980 million, reflecting a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year [1]. - The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 470 million, down 14.1% compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue was USD 1.68 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 4.6% [1]. - The report highlights ongoing inventory reduction and pragmatic adjustments in operations [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, total revenue is projected at USD 6.246 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -9.0% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024A is estimated at USD 726 million, reflecting a decline of 14.8% year-on-year [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024A is expected to be USD 0.05, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19 [2]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately HKD 109.4 billion [3]. Regional Performance Insights - In the Asia Pacific West region, revenue declined by 2.7% year-on-year in Q2 2025, while normalized EBITDA showed a slight increase of 1.4% [6]. - The Asia Pacific East region experienced a revenue drop of 8.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, primarily due to a high base effect and preemptive price increases [6]. - The report anticipates continued adjustments in Q3, with a potential return to stable growth in Q4 due to low base effects [6]. Future Outlook - The report projects a recovery in growth rates for Q4 2025, driven by ongoing adjustments and inventory management strategies [6]. - The normalized net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are USD 762 million, USD 823 million, and USD 871 million respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18, 17, and 16 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the near - end TA start - up is stable, polyester load rises slightly, inventory accumulates, and basis weakens. TA will remain in a state of inventory accumulation, but the absolute inventory level is not high. Polyester start - up is expected to stabilize and has upward elasticity. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term bargain - hunting positive spreads. PX is still in a de - stocking trend with a guaranteed valuation floor [3]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic coal - to - MEG start - up rises, overseas Saudi plants restart, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. In the short term, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the far - end may accumulate inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the satellite restart progress [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up increases slightly, production and sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases slightly. The demand side is still weak. The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, and the processing fee is in a low range. Pay attention to the subsequent start - up status of polyester yarn [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. - For styrene, the domestic profit of styrene has certain fluctuations, and the profit of EPS has increased significantly [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of PTA inner - market spot changed from 4775 to 4800, and the PTA processing difference changed from - 207 to - 46. The basis of daily average transaction is 2509(-8) [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA start - up is stable, polyester load rises slightly, inventory accumulates, basis weakens, and spot processing fee decreases again. PX domestic start - up decreases slightly, overseas load is stable, and PXN strengthens [3]. - **Outlook**: TA remains in a state of inventory accumulation, but the absolute inventory level is not high. Polyester start - up is expected to stabilize and has upward elasticity. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term bargain - hunting positive spreads. PX is still in a de - stocking trend with a guaranteed valuation floor [3]. MEG - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the MEG outer - market price changed from 525 to 528, and the MEG coal - to - profit changed from 687 to 684. The basis is around 09(+52) [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end domestic coal - to - MEG start - up rises, overseas Saudi plants restart, and port inventory is expected to accumulate. Downstream stocking levels rise, basis remains the same, and the benefit - comparison further expands [3]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the far - end may accumulate inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the satellite restart progress [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber changed from 6640 to 6675, and the short - fiber profit changed from 37 to 47 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The start - up increases slightly, production and sales improve slightly, and inventory decreases slightly. The demand side is still weak, with stable start - up of polyester yarn, slightly increased raw - material stocking, and accumulated finished - product inventory [3]. - **Outlook**: The inventory pressure of staple fiber is acceptable, and the processing fee is in a low range. There is no obvious upward driver, and attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up status of polyester yarn [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot changed from 1800 to 1800, and the price of Shanghai full - latex changed from 14660 to 14665 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price rebounds [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [3]. Styrene - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 22 to July 28, the price of styrene (CFR China) changed from 920 to 908, and the domestic profit of styrene was 24 on July 25 and 28. The profit of EPS increased from 150 to 285 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The prices of raw materials and downstream products have certain fluctuations, and the domestic profit of styrene has certain fluctuations, while the profit of EPS has increased significantly [6].