Summary of Global Automobiles Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global BEV Sales Growth**: In September 2025, global Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) sales increased by +31% year-over-year (y/y), reaching approximately 1.5 million units, marking a historic monthly high. For 3Q25, sales totaled 3.9 million units, reflecting a +32.4% y/y growth [1][2] - **Regional Performance**: The US led global growth in 3Q25 with a +33% y/y increase, attributed to pre-buying before the expiration of EV credits on September 30, 2025. Europe followed with a +32% y/y growth despite a seasonal decline of -2% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) [1] - **Future Projections**: Global BEV sales are expected to grow by +27% y/y in 2025, but growth will slow to approximately +14% y/y in 4Q25, primarily due to a potential sales decline in the US of -10% y/y or more after subsidy cuts [1] OEM Performance - **Tesla**: Gained market share in September 2025 (+120 basis points), with expectations of continued strength due to new entry-level models. However, a reversal is anticipated post-EV pre-buying in the US [2] - **BYD and Geely**: Experienced significant market share losses (-60 basis points and -100 basis points respectively) due to increased local competition and slower growth in China [2] - **US OEMs**: Celebrated the end of EV credits, pushing forward in the market [2] - **German Premium OEMs**: Mixed results; only Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz gained market share, with Audi's global BEV sales up by +55% y/y in Q3 2025, while BMW saw a decline of -16% y/y [2] FY26 Outlook - **Sales Growth Expectations**: Global BEV sales growth is projected to decrease to approximately +17% y/y in FY26, down from +27% y/y in FY25, with total sales expected to reach around 16.9 million units [3] - **US Market Dynamics**: Anticipated zero growth in BEV sales in the US for FY26 due to the removal of purchase subsidies and changes in regulations [3] - **China's NEV Market**: Expected to see a reduction in purchase tax exemptions, leading to only a +1 million unit increase in BEV sales y/y, with intensified price pressure [3] - **European Market**: Projected to grow by +30% y/y, with BEV penetration reaching approximately 24%, supported by subsidy schemes in Italy and Germany [3] - **Chinese OEMs' International Expansion**: As domestic sales slow, Chinese OEMs like BYD plan to expand internationally, with new plants in Hungary and Türkiye set to open in 2026 [3] Additional Insights - **Model Launches**: Key model launches in FY26 include VW Polo/Cross, Hyundai Ioniq 3 & 9, Renault Twingo, BMW iX3/i3, and others [3] - **Market Share Trends**: Tesla's market share increased to 14.2% in September 2025, while BYD's decreased to 14.7%. Geely's market share fell to 7.1% [19] - **PHEV Sales Surge**: Anticipated surge in Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) sales in China due to new EV rules, with PHEVs accounting for 40% of all passenger electric vehicle sales in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting a +35% y/y increase [8][9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the global automobile industry, particularly focusing on BEVs and the competitive landscape among OEMs.

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is adjusting its pricing strategy to cater to more price-sensitive consumers while attempting to maintain profit margins, especially in light of expiring government credits [2][4][8]. Pricing Strategy - Tesla has reduced prices by approximately $5,000 but has increased costs by about $2,000 compared to the previous week, with many buyers ineligible for a $7,500 credit [1]. - The company is focusing on the lower end of the market to attract cost-conscious buyers while preserving its profit profile [2]. Margin Management - Tesla's margins have faced pressure but showed improvement last quarter, beating expectations by about 150 basis points [5]. - There is potential for margins to remain stable or improve in the upcoming quarters, with expectations of a 50 to 100 basis point beat [6][12]. Competitive Landscape - Tesla is facing intense competition from Chinese EV brands, which prioritize market share over profitability [9][10]. - The Chinese EV market is producing high-quality vehicles at lower prices, posing a challenge for Tesla in maintaining its brand loyalty and market position [11][15]. Long-term Outlook - Investors are focused on Tesla's long-term opportunities in AI, robotics, and autonomous vehicles, which are seen as key growth areas [16][20]. - Despite short-term pressures, Tesla is expected to remain a leader in the EV market, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, as traditional automakers retrench [19].

Group 1 - The IAA Mobility 2025 showcased a significant presence of both Chinese and European automotive manufacturers, highlighting the ongoing rivalry between Europe and China in the automotive sector [2][3] - A notable number of Chinese OEMs were present, including Aito, BYD Auto, Changan, Chery, Dongfeng, FAW, GAC Group, Leapmotor, and Xpeng, while European manufacturers also increased their participation [2] - The availability of Chinese models in Europe is uncertain, with many models displayed requiring reconfiguration for the European market, indicating potential delays in market penetration [4] Group 2 - The homologation process for Chinese models is lengthy and costly, which may hinder the rapid introduction of these vehicles into the European market [4] - The evolution of models, such as the BYD Seagull to the Dolphin Surf, exemplifies the adjustments needed for compliance with European standards [4]

Core Insights - The electric vehicle (EV) market is becoming more competitive, with a focus on affordability as a key driver for mainstream adoption [1] - BYD Co Ltd is leading the charge in the affordable EV segment with significant price cuts and a vertically integrated supply chain [1][4] Group 1: BYD's Market Position - BYD's cheapest model, the Seagull, has seen a price reduction from 69,800 yuan ($9,500) to 56,800 yuan ($7,800), making it more accessible to budget-conscious consumers [2] - The Seagull has been well-received, and its recent upgrade with the "God's Eye" smart driving system adds further appeal without additional cost [3] - In Q1 2025, BYD sold over one million new energy vehicles (NEVs), achieving a 60% year-over-year growth, indicating strong sales momentum [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Toyota has launched its most affordable EV, the bZ3X, priced around $15,000, which is 30% cheaper than its bZ3 sedan, directly competing with BYD [5] - Tesla plans to introduce a more affordable EV in the first half of 2025 to enhance its competitiveness amid slowing sales growth and increasing price sensitivity [6] Group 3: Financial Performance - BYD's shares have increased approximately 21% year-to-date, contrasting with a 16% decline in the industry [8] - The forward price-to-sales ratio for BYD is 0.85, slightly above the industry average, and it holds a Value Score of B [10] - Earnings estimates for BYD indicate a year-over-year increase of 33% for 2025 and 19% for 2026, although the 2026 estimates have seen a downward trend recently [12]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's brand image has significantly deteriorated due to Elon Musk's political affiliations and actions, leading to declining sales and increased public backlash [1][4][5]. Group 1: Sales and Deliveries - Tesla reported 336,681 deliveries in Q1 2025, a decrease from 495,570 in Q4 2024 and 386,810 in Q1 2024, indicating a substantial drop in consumer interest [3]. - In February 2025, Tesla's sales in Germany plummeted by 76% to just 1,429 units compared to 6,038 in February 2024, reflecting a broader decline in European sales, which fell 44% year-over-year [31][32]. Group 2: Political Impact - Musk's political activities have transformed Tesla into a "symbolic pariah," with record-high trade-ins and calls for boycotts from foreign leaders, resulting in the stock price losing about half its value since December [4]. - A study indicated that the likelihood of Republicans purchasing a Tesla increased from 7% to 10.2% following Musk's endorsement of Trump, suggesting a shift in the brand's customer base [8]. Group 3: Brand Perception and Protests - The "Tesla Takedown" movement aims to discourage purchases and encourage Tesla owners to trade in their vehicles, with peaceful protests occurring nationwide [22][24]. - Vandalism and violent protests against Tesla properties have been reported, with some incidents involving Molotov cocktails and gunfire [17][19]. Group 4: Competition and Market Position - BYD, a major competitor, has made significant advancements in EV technology, including a new charging system that allows for five-minute charging, and has surpassed Tesla in revenue, reporting $107 billion compared to Tesla's $97.7 billion in 2024 [33][35]. - BYD's "God's Eye" advanced driver assistance system will be included at no extra cost in its entire EV lineup, further intensifying competition against Tesla [34]. Group 5: Product Issues - Tesla's aging product lineup has been a concern, with the Cybertruck facing eight recalls since its launch in November 2023, including a recent recall of 46,000 units due to a manufacturing defect [36][38].