Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU) with a 12-month price target of $96.00, indicating an upside potential of 14.4% from the current price of $83.92 [1]. Core Insights - The management aims to accelerate the AI search revamp, targeting a penetration rate of AIGC search results to reach 70-80% by the end of 2025, which is expected to lead to a near-term advertising revenue decline of over 10% year-on-year in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [1][16]. - The cloud business is expected to maintain solid growth, with a 42% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, driven by recurring subscription-based revenue despite fluctuations in project-based revenue [1][18]. - Margin pressure is anticipated in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 due to operating deleverage from advertising headwinds and investments in AI initiatives [1][20]. Advertising Outlook and AI Search Revamp - Management is focused on enhancing the AI search revamp, with expectations of a significant decline in advertising revenue in the near term due to the transition to AIGC search results [1][16]. - The advertising revenue for Baidu is projected to decrease from Rmb 72,849 million in 2024 to Rmb 67,261 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8% [16]. Cloud Business Momentum - Baidu's cloud revenue is expected to grow significantly, with management highlighting the GPU cloud as a supply-constrained market where Baidu has a competitive edge [1][17]. - The cloud revenue is projected to reach Rmb 27,950 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28% [23]. Margin Dynamics - The report indicates that group-level margin pressure is expected due to a mix of slower advertising growth and faster growth in cloud and autonomous driving segments [1][20]. - Management anticipates that both the cloud and autonomous driving segments will see incremental margin improvements in FY25 [20][21]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from Rmb 133,125 million in 2024 to Rmb 135,929 million in 2025, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 2% [23]. - EBITDA is expected to decline from Rmb 34,907.5 million in 2024 to Rmb 31,420.6 million in 2025, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 10% [23]. Price Performance - The report notes that Baidu's stock has underperformed relative to the NASDAQ Composite, with a 12-month absolute return of -16.3% [12].

Core Insights - Baidu reported earnings for the first fiscal quarter that significantly exceeded Wall Street's low expectations [1] - The company's Cloud segment experienced a revenue surge of 42% year-over-year, driven in part by the utilization of AI products [1] Financial Performance - Baidu's overall performance in the first fiscal quarter was robust, indicating strong operational execution [1] - The substantial growth in the Cloud segment highlights the increasing importance of AI technologies in driving revenue [1]

15 Apr 2025 Baidu (BIDU US) Expecting steady cloud revenue growth For 1Q25E, we expect Baidu Core business revenue could reach RMB24.0bn, up 1% YoY, and would be 3% better than Bloomberg consensus, mainly driven by likely better-than-expected cloud revenue growth boosted by strong AI- related demand. Aided by solid cloud revenue growth, we are anticipating non- GAAP operating profit of RMB4.5bn for Baidu Core, 1% better than consensus. Baidu is still proactively driving business transformation, embedding mo ...