February 25, 2026 10:00 PM GMT Rowdy Robot | North America Picks & Shovels Robot Plays: Bearings In our view, bearings offer diversified, architecture-agnostic exposure to the secular robotics theme, with content scaling alongside robot complexity with relatively limited substitution, in-sourcing, or obsolescence risk. We forecast a ~300x growth in the robot bearings market through 2050. | M Rowdy Robot North America Picks & Shovels Robot Plays: | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Equity Analyst Adam.Jonas@morgansta ...

Timken Company (NYSE: TKR) 2026 Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Timken Company - **Industry**: Machinery and Industrial Components - **Date of Conference**: February 18, 2026 Key Points Company Position and Financial Health - The company is experiencing strong cash generation and has a healthy balance sheet, indicating a solid financial position at the bottom of the industrial cycle [4][21] - Timken has made significant progress in divesting from automotive businesses and is now focused on growth opportunities [4][5] Strategic Priorities - The 80/20 strategy is a key focus, aiming to concentrate resources on the most profitable segments while discontinuing less profitable ones [6][10] - The company plans to simplify operations and customer mix to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [7][8] - Timken is committed to organic growth while also considering inorganic growth through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) [12][22] Growth Opportunities - The company is targeting growth in sectors such as automation, renewable energy, and defense, which are expected to drive demand [20][23] - Timken's industrial motions portfolio is positioned for global expansion, particularly in linear motion and lubrication businesses [13][14] Market Outlook - The company anticipates a 2% organic sales growth for 2026, driven by a combination of pricing and volume increases [35] - Key growth markets include aerospace and defense, renewable energy (with a focus on wind), and rail, while agriculture remains slow [39][40] Capital Allocation and M&A Strategy - Timken has maintained a disciplined capital allocation strategy, with a leverage target of 1.5-2.5 times [21][22] - The company has repurchased over 25% of its shares since 2013 and continues to view M&A as an attractive opportunity [22][23] - The M&A pipeline includes both smaller strategic acquisitions and potential transformative deals, focusing on macro trends like automation and electrification [23][24] Cost Management and Margin Outlook - Timken expects to be price-cost positive in 2026, with efforts to recapture margins lost due to tariffs [44][46] - The company is implementing cost-saving measures and has closed plants to reduce stranded costs, which will positively impact margins [46][49] Future Developments - The upcoming Investor Day will outline both short- to medium-term performance improvements and long-term transformation strategies [64][66] - The focus will be on elevating current performance and aligning technologies with macro trends to drive future growth [66][67] Automation and Labor - Timken is leveraging automation in its manufacturing processes, particularly in new state-of-the-art facilities in Asia [60][61] - The company is addressing labor challenges by enhancing automation and improving operational efficiencies [60][62] Conclusion - Timken Company is well-positioned for growth with a strong financial foundation, strategic focus on high-growth markets, and a commitment to operational efficiency and innovation. The upcoming Investor Day is expected to provide further insights into the company's future direction and growth strategies [66][67]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Third quarter net sales were $461 million, a 17% increase year-over-year [4] - Consolidated gross margin for the quarter was 44.3%, with an adjusted gross margin of 45.1% [4][13] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $3.04, representing a 30% improvement from $2.34 a year ago [4] - EBITDA increased to $149.6 million, up 22% from $122.6 million last year [4][16] - Free cash flow for the period was $99.1 million, with a conversion rate of 147% [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerospace & Defense (A&D) sales increased by 41.5% year-over-year, with commercial aerospace expanding by 21.5% and defense by 86.2% [5][13] - Industrial business grew by 3.1%, with industrial distribution up 1.5% and OEM sector up 7% [10][11] - A&D gross margins were 40.1%, or 42.2% on an adjusted basis, while industrial margins were 47.5% [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 56% of revenues were from industrial sectors, while 44% came from A&D [5] - The company has exceeded a $2 billion backlog, indicating strong demand across A&D sectors [5] - The semiconductor industry showed significant demand growth, contributing positively to order trends [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its A&D revenues by adding machinery and staff to support growth [10] - A five-year plan is in place to enhance production capabilities across existing sites [10] - The company aims to maintain a capital allocation strategy focused on deleveraging and paying off debt [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management described the A&D sector's outlook as extremely robust, driven by national defense priorities and commercial aircraft build rates [6][10] - The company expects continued margin improvement in A&D due to increased efficiencies and better pricing on contracts [14] - For the fourth quarter, revenue guidance is set at $495 million to $505 million, representing year-over-year growth of 13.1% to 15.4% [17] Other Important Information - The company paid down an additional $81 million of debt during the third quarter [5][16] - Interest expense decreased by 8.5% year-over-year, reflecting improved leverage and lower interest rates [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on the industrial business outlook for Q4 and 2027 growth? - Management expects Q4 growth to be similar to Q3, with positive PMI trends indicating a bullish sign for the business [20] Question: What is the composition of the backlog and its relationship with revenue? - Over 90% of the backlog is from the A&D market, with some contracts extending beyond 12-24 months [28] Question: How do you view the growth potential for the missile business relative to commercial aerospace? - Management indicated that while missile business growth is significant, it is not expected to surpass the commercial aircraft business [48] Question: Can you clarify the production rates for Boeing and Airbus programs? - Boeing is increasing production rates, with the 737 aiming for 60 units per month in the near future [57] Question: What is the expected capital expenditure for the upcoming periods? - Capital expenditures are expected to remain around 3.5% of revenue, with modest investments to meet demand [75]

Core Viewpoint - Sotera Health Company has appointed Richard G. Kyle as a new independent director to its Board of Directors, enhancing its leadership team with his extensive experience in operations and governance [1][2][3]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Richard G. Kyle will serve on the Leadership Development and Compensation Committee and the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee [1]. - His previous role was as President and CEO of The Timken Company, where he led financial transformation and strategic diversification [2]. - Kyle's selection is based on his experience in leading global operations and strong financial acumen [2][3]. Group 2: Leadership Insights - Michael B. Petras, Jr., Chairman and CEO of Sotera Health, expressed excitement about Kyle's appointment, highlighting his leadership experience as a public company CEO [3]. - Kyle continues to serve on Timken's Board and has been on the Board of Sonoco Products Company since 2015, where he holds multiple committee roles [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Sotera Health is a global provider of sterilization solutions, lab testing, and advisory services for the healthcare industry [4]. - The company operates through three business segments: Sterigenics, Nordion, and Nelson Labs, with a commitment to safeguarding global health [4].

Group 1: Aerospace/Defense Segment - RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) is experiencing strong momentum in the Aerospace/Defense segment, driven by robust growth in orders from both OEM and aftermarket verticals [1] - The company has a solid backlog and is effectively executing incremental orders in the commercial aerospace market, which is expected to be beneficial [1] - Increased demand for bearings and engineered components in the defense market, particularly in marine, helicopter, and missile applications, is anticipated to support growth in the upcoming quarters [1] Group 2: Industrial Segment - RBC is also benefiting from stable demand in the Industrial segment, particularly for highly engineered bearings and precision components across various markets including metals and mining, warehousing and logistics, forest products, and food and beverage [2] Group 3: Acquisitions and Product Portfolio - The acquisition of VACCO Industries in July 2025 enhances RBC's capabilities in engineered valves, regulators, and manifolds, expanding its offerings in defense, space, and commercial markets [3] - The acquisition of Specline, a precision bearings manufacturer, in August 2023 has broadened RBC's aerospace product offerings and increased production capacity [4] Group 4: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - In fiscal 2025, RBC paid preferred stock dividends of $17.2 million and repurchased shares worth $9.5 million, demonstrating a commitment to rewarding shareholders [5] - Over the past year, RBC's shares have risen by 37.1%, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 3.6% [6] Group 5: Cost Challenges - The company is facing rising costs, with cost of sales increasing by 8.3% year over year in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, alongside a 9.3% rise in SG&A expenses due to higher personnel, stock compensation, travel, and professional fees [10] - These increasing costs may adversely impact RBC's margins and profitability if not controlled [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter sales were $436 million, a 7.3% increase year over year, driven by strong performance in Aerospace and Defense (A&D) and solid industrial business performance [5][15] - Consolidated gross margin for the quarter was 44.8%, down from 45.3% in the same period last year, while adjusted diluted EPS was $2.84, up from $2.54, representing an 11.8% year-over-year growth [5][17] - Free cash flow reached a record $104.3 million, with a conversion rate of 152%, compared to $88.4 million and 144% last year [5][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - A&D sales increased by 10.4% year over year, with commercial aerospace growing by 9.6% and defense by 11.9% [6] - The industrial segment grew by 5.5% year over year, with distribution and aftermarket up by 10% [6][7] - Industrial gross margins were 46%, while A&D margins were 42.3%, with adjusted industrial gross margins at 47.1% [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog exceeded $1 billion for the first time, with $100 million attributed to industrial products [8] - The U.S. GDP expansion of 3% confirmed a strong industrial economy during the period [7] - Demand for products in the defense sector is expected to expand in the high single to low double digits for many quarters [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on organic growth through product innovation and market development, identifying new opportunities monthly [9] - The recent acquisition of VAACO is expected to enhance capacity and meet expanding customer requirements, particularly in the marine business [11][12] - The company has a well-defined five-year outlook and is positioned to achieve growth objectives through operational excellence and innovative product development [13][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing unprecedented demand in several market areas and a strong balance sheet [13] - The company anticipates revenue growth of $445 million to $455 million for the next quarter, representing year-over-year growth of 11.8% to 14.4% [18] - Management noted that the recent tax treatment for capacity investment is expected to positively influence demand for products in the industrial sector [8][26] Other Important Information - Interest expense decreased by 29.1% year over year to $12.2 million due to debt payments and reduced interest rates [17] - The company plans to use generated cash to pay off a $200 million drawdown by the end of the fiscal year [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: What parts of the five-year outlook can you share? - The company aligns historical sales by account with customer outlooks, focusing on major aerospace customers and planning capacity to meet demand [22][23] Question: Will you need to spend more on CapEx? - The company is currently airfreighting manufacturing equipment to expand capacity and expects to maintain CapEx in the 3% to 4% range [26] Question: How will the infrastructure bill impact your business? - The bill is expected to positively affect demand from smaller industrial customers, while its impact on larger aerospace customers may be limited [28] Question: Can you provide details on VACCO's revenue contribution? - VACCO is expected to contribute approximately $10 million to $11 million monthly, with all revenue going into the A&D segment [31][35] Question: What are the trends in commercial aerospace? - The company expects to expand content per build rate and is negotiating contracts with OEMs for the next five years [36][37] Question: What is the duration of the $1 billion backlog? - The backlog is expected to last multiple years, with a chance of doubling in the next twelve months, primarily driven by defense programs [46][47] Question: How do you see the integration of VACCO progressing? - The integration is expected to improve margins over 18 to 24 months, similar to past acquisitions [50][52] Question: Are there any supply chain constraints anticipated? - The company has secured extensive inventories of exotic materials and does not foresee significant issues in production capacity [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter sales were $436 million, a 7.3% increase year over year, driven by strong performance in Aerospace and Defense (A&D) and Industrial segments [4] - Consolidated gross margin for the quarter was 44.8%, down from 45.3% in the same period last year, while adjusted diluted EPS was $2.84, up from $2.54, representing an 11.8% growth year over year [4][16] - Free cash flow reached a record $104.3 million, with a conversion rate of 152%, compared to $88.4 million and 144% last year [4][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - A&D sales increased by 10.4% year over year, with commercial aerospace growing by 9.6% and defense by 11.9% [5] - The industrial segment grew by 5.5% year over year, with distribution and aftermarket up by 10% [5] - Industrial gross margins were 46%, while A&D margins were 42.3%, with adjusted industrial gross margins at 47.1% [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog exceeded $1 billion for the first time, with $100 million attributed to industrial products [7] - The U.S. GDP expansion of 3% confirmed a strong industrial economy, with expectations for positive demand influenced by recent tax treatments for capacity investments [6][7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on organic growth through product innovation and market development, with plans to expand capacities to meet customer demands [8][9] - The recent acquisition of VAACO is expected to enhance capabilities in marine and defense sectors, with strong synergies anticipated [10][11] - A well-defined five-year outlook is in place, with strategic planning based on historical sales and customer demand forecasts [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing unprecedented demand in key market areas and a strong balance sheet [12] - The company anticipates continued growth in the defense sector, projecting high single to low double-digit expansion for many quarters [8] - Management noted that the industrial distribution business saw a 10% increase, indicating a positive trend in the industrial economy [45] Other Important Information - The company plans to use generated cash to pay off debt and maintain a focus on deleveraging [17] - Guidance for the second quarter projects revenues between $445 million and $455 million, representing year-over-year growth of 11.8% to 14.4% [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: What parts of the five-year outlook can be shared? - The company is aligning historical sales by account and assessing capacity needs based on customer demand forecasts [23][24] Question: Will more CapEx be needed for capacity expansion? - The company plans to maintain CapEx in the range of 3% to 4% of depreciation, with some real estate consolidation expected [26][28] Question: How will the recent infrastructure bill impact the business? - The bill is expected to positively affect demand from smaller industrial customers, while its impact on A&D is less clear [30] Question: What is the expected revenue contribution from VACCO? - VACCO is anticipated to contribute approximately $10 million to $11 million monthly, with all revenue going into the A&D segment [33][37] Question: What are the trends in commercial aerospace? - Build rates are stabilizing, and the company expects to expand content on existing contracts with OEMs [38][39] Question: Is there confidence in sustainable industrial expansion? - The company sees positive signs in industrial distribution, with expectations for growth driven by recent tax changes [44][70] Question: How is the integration of VACCO progressing? - The integration is expected to enhance margins over 18 to 24 months, similar to past acquisitions [50][51] Question: Will supply chain constraints affect growth? - The company has secured extensive inventories of exotic materials to mitigate supply chain challenges [62][63]

Group 1 - The rise of humanoid robots is creating new opportunities for the bearing market, as bearings play a crucial role in key components such as reducers, lead screws, and motors [2][3] - The demand for bearings is expected to increase significantly, with an example of Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus potentially generating over 3 billion yuan in additional bearing demand if production reaches 1 million units [2] - The global bearing market is projected to grow from 121.3 billion USD in 2021 to over 243.03 billion USD by 2030, indicating substantial market potential [3] Group 2 - Domestic companies are making progress in technology research and market share, with the domestic bearing industry achieving a revenue of 218 billion yuan and producing 20.2 billion sets in 2023 [3] - The complexity of bearing processing involves multiple steps, and the grinding machine is a key piece of equipment, with a significant portion of production costs attributed to grinding [4] - The domestic market for high-end grinding machines is still reliant on imports, with a localization rate of less than 50%, indicating a need for breakthroughs in this area [4]

Group 1: Aerospace/Defense Segment Performance - RBC Bearings Incorporated (RBC) is experiencing strong growth in the Aerospace/Defense segment, with revenues up 15.5% year over year in the first nine months of fiscal 2025, driven by solid momentum in the commercial aerospace market and increased demand from OEM and aftermarket verticals [1] - The demand for bearings and engineered component products in the defense market is expected to positively impact the segment's performance in the upcoming quarters [1] Group 2: Industrial Segment Recovery - The Industrial segment is witnessing a recovery, with revenues increasing by 2.7% year over year in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, supported by stable demand in various markets including mining, food and beverage, and power generation [2] - For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, RBC anticipates net sales to be between $434 million and $444 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.9% to 7.3% [2] Group 3: Acquisitions and Business Expansion - RBC Bearings is focused on strengthening its business through acquisitions, having acquired Specline, Inc. in August 2023, which enhances its aerospace product offerings and production capacity [3] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company is committed to rewarding shareholders, having paid dividends of $17.2 million and repurchased shares worth $8.6 million in the first nine months of fiscal 2025 [4] - In fiscal 2024, RBC repurchased shares valued at $11 million and distributed preferred dividends totaling $22.9 million [4] Group 5: Cost and Expense Challenges - RBC is facing rising costs, with the cost of sales increasing by 1.8% year over year in the first nine months of fiscal 2025, driven by higher raw material costs [8] - Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose by 9.6% year over year during the same period due to increasing personnel and stock compensation costs [8] Group 6: Stock Performance - Over the past six months, RBC's shares have increased by 16.9%, contrasting with a 15.4% decline in the industry [7]