Visitors visit the "the monsters Convenience Store" themed exhibition created by POP MART with IP LABUBU as the selling point, Shanghai, China, July 23, 2025. Shares in Chinese toymaker Pop Mart saw volatile trading on Wednesday, a day after the company posted a near-400% surge in net profit, driven by booming global demand for its Labubu dolls. Pop Mart dropped as much as 4.7% before paring losses to climb above 2% as of 10.45 a.m. local time (10:45 p.m. ET Tuesday) Pop Mart's revenue jumped 204.4% year on ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive view on the long-term structural story of the Chinese equity market, suggesting potential for fund inflows over the next 6-12 months [17][21]. Core Insights - Market volatility is expected to rise in the near term due to several upcoming global trade and tariff events, which could impact market risk appetite [3][9]. - The upcoming 2Q results season may reignite concerns over earnings, although the expectation is for results to be in line with previous quarters [10][11]. - Investor sentiment may be dampened by the expiration of lockup periods for high-momentum stocks, prompting preemptive reductions in exposure [12]. - The likelihood of major stimulus measures being introduced at the July Politburo meeting is low, with expectations shifting towards September or October for potential policy adjustments [14][15]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The report highlights critical dates in July and August that could lead to increased market volatility, including the expiration of tariff pauses and ongoing trade negotiations [3][4][9]. - The report notes that while the Chinese market has shown signs of recovery, uncertainties surrounding trade negotiations and earnings results could lead to temporary profit-taking [11][22]. Earnings Outlook - The report anticipates that the 2Q earnings results will align with expectations, following a trend of normalization in earnings delivery since late 2024 [10][11]. - Concerns over earnings may be exacerbated by the timing of results coinciding with tariff negotiations, potentially leading to skepticism in the second half of 2025 [11]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced investment approach, advocating for exposure to high-quality tech and Internet companies while maintaining some dividend yield plays [21][22]. - The removal of Pop Mart from the focus list and the addition of PICC P&C is recommended due to its attractive yield and resilience during market volatility [13]. Long-term Outlook - Structural improvements in the Chinese equity market remain intact, with MSCI China trading at a fair valuation compared to other major indices [17][19]. - The report emphasizes the potential for global capital to gradually return to China's market as investors seek diversification amid a slower macro outlook [17][21].