Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ:FLY) is among the best US stocks to buy under $20. On November 20, 2025, Anthony Valentini, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, reinstated coverage on Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ:FLY) with a ‘Neutral’ rating and price target of $29, according to TheFly. This potential upside of nearly 67% is associated with the nascent space market that the company is serving. The analyst highlights in a research note that this market segment is poised to accelerate in the years ahead as it fill ...

Core Viewpoint - Firefly, a Texas-based aerospace company, became the first private U.S. company to successfully land a spacecraft on the Moon, achieving this milestone on March 2, 2025, with its Blue Ghost lander [1][10]. Company Overview - Firefly was founded by Tom Markusic, a former engineer at NASA, Blue Origin, SpaceX, and Virgin Galactic, aiming to develop a low-cost rocket for small satellite launches [7]. - After facing bankruptcy in 2017, the company was acquired by Max Polyakov's Noosphere Ventures for approximately $75 million, followed by an additional $200 million investment for restructuring [9]. - The company shifted its strategy to a comprehensive delivery model, focusing on building a complete mission system from rockets to lunar landers [9][10]. Market Environment - The commercial launch market has been significantly impacted by SpaceX, which has reduced launch costs to below $2,000 per kilogram, down from an industry average of $20,000 [3]. - Firefly's strategy diverges from price competition; it aims to establish a complete space logistics chain, integrating launch, service, and delivery [5]. Product Line and Technology - Firefly's key products include the Blue Ghost lunar lander and the Elytra spacecraft, designed for flexible orbital operations [13][15]. - The Blue Ghost is capable of operating for approximately 14 days on the Moon and can support various scientific and commercial payloads [15]. - The Alpha rocket can deliver a payload of 1,030 kg to low Earth orbit and has been involved in over 30 future missions [16][17]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Firefly reported revenues of $60.79 million but incurred a net loss of $231.13 million, indicating significant operational challenges [24]. - By Q1 2025, revenues increased to $55.85 million, a sixfold increase year-over-year, but the company still faced a net loss of $60.09 million [24][25]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company had a negative free cash flow of $96.5 million and only $205 million in available cash [26]. Orders and Contracts - Firefly has secured over $1.1 billion in orders, primarily from NASA and the U.S. military, positioning itself as a long-term supplier within the government contract ecosystem [28]. - The company’s ability to execute complex tasks has led to its inclusion in critical government projects, enhancing its credibility and market position [21][23]. IPO and Valuation - Firefly plans to go public on August 7, 2025, with an estimated valuation of $5.6 billion, a significant increase from its previous valuation of $2 billion [3][12]. - The IPO is seen as a necessary step to secure funding for ongoing projects and to signal to clients its capability to continue delivering on contracts [32][33]. Competitive Landscape - Firefly operates in a different business model compared to competitors like RKLB and SpaceX, focusing on comprehensive mission management rather than high-frequency launches or a closed-loop ecosystem [34][38]. - The company’s primary clients are U.S. government agencies, which require high-value, long-term contracts, contrasting with the broader commercial client base of its competitors [34].

Core Insights - The IM-2 mission by Intuitive Machines successfully landed the Athena lander on the moon, but its orientation is questionable, raising concerns about its operational status [1][3][26] - NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will assist in determining Athena's exact landing position [2][3] - The mission is part of NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, aimed at utilizing private companies for lunar exploration [6][12] Mission Details - Athena carries various scientific instruments, including a hopping drone and rovers, and is designed to explore the lunar surface [5][6] - The mission's landing occurred near the moon's south pole, a key area for future human exploration [12] - Athena is expected to operate for about 10 days, relying on solar power [13] Scientific Objectives - The mission includes the Polar Resources Ice Mining Experiment 1 (PRIME-1), which aims to measure ice in the lunar soil, crucial for understanding water availability for future missions [16][18] - The presence of lunar ice could provide insights into the history of the solar system and the potential for supporting life on other planets [17] Challenges and Comparisons - Lunar landings are inherently difficult due to the moon's gravity and lack of atmosphere, making soft landings challenging [23][24] - Previous missions, such as Russia's Luna-25 and Israel's Beresheet, faced failures, highlighting the risks involved in lunar exploration [22][25] - Athena's landing issues are reminiscent of past challenges faced by other missions, but there remains hope for achieving its scientific goals [26]