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全球造船业:分两阶段的长期上行周期-Global Shipbuilding_ A prolonged upcycle with two stages
2025-09-03 13:23
Summary of Global Shipbuilding Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global shipbuilding industry is experiencing a prolonged upcycle, expected to last until 2032, driven by decarbonization and the replacement of aging fleets [1][8][9] - The total addressable market (TAM) for global shipyards (excluding naval ships) is projected to be 441 million CGTs (compensated gross tonnage) with a value of US$1.2 trillion from 2025 to 2032 [8][22] Key Drivers of the Upcycle - **Decarbonization**: Stricter environmental regulations are anticipated to increase operating costs for conventional fuel vessels, making alternative fuel vessels more competitive by 2035 [11][22] - **Replacement Demand**: A significant portion of the fleet will exceed 20 years of age by 2029, necessitating replacements with greener vessels [9][21] Orderbook and Pricing Dynamics - The orderbook is expected to remain elevated, with a forecast of new ship orders increasing significantly from 2029 due to replacement demand and stricter regulations [10][12] - Newbuild prices are projected to remain high, with only a slight retreat of 12% from the peak in 2024 due to disciplined capacity and strong demand [10][25] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - Chinese shipyards are expected to regain market share from 2026 onwards, despite short-term losses attributed to tighter capacity and higher US port fees for China-built vessels [12][14] - The market share of Chinese shipyards is projected to decline in 2025 but is expected to recover due to competitive pricing and capacity expansion [12][14] Earnings and Valuation - Earnings are expected to boom from 2025 to 2028, driven by high-value orderbooks and lower steel prices, despite a potential decline in profitability for container shipping and LNG carriers [10][15] - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is highlighted as a preferred investment due to its attractive valuation metrics, including the lowest price-to-book ratio and highest return on equity among peers [15][14] Future Projections - The global shipbuilding capacity is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 2% from 2025 to 2027, primarily driven by Chinese shipyards [13][25] - The orderbook cover years are projected to remain above 2.5 years, indicating a healthy backlog for shipyards [10][13] Conclusion - The global shipbuilding industry is positioned for a robust upcycle driven by environmental regulations and the need for fleet modernization. Investment opportunities are particularly favorable in Chinese shipyards, with Yangzijiang Shipbuilding being a standout choice for investors looking for growth in this sector [8][15][12]
SFL - Second Quarter 2025 Results
Globenewswire· 2025-08-19 10:08
Core Viewpoint - SFL Corporation Ltd. announced preliminary financial results for Q2 2025, reporting a net income of $1.5 million and a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share, reflecting ongoing efforts to strengthen its charter backlog and improve operational efficiency [1][4][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net income of $1.5 million, equating to $0.01 per share for the second quarter [7]. - Charter hire received in the quarter totaled $194 million, with approximately 87% from shipping and 13% from energy [7]. - Adjusted EBITDA from consolidated subsidiaries was $104 million, with $97 million from shipping and $7 million from energy, plus an additional $8 million from associated vessel owning companies [7]. Strategic Actions - SFL has taken decisive steps to enhance its charter backlog by securing agreements with strong counterparties and investing in cargo-handling and fuel-efficiency upgrades [3]. - The company has divested older, less efficient vessels, which has improved the operational and fuel consumption efficiency of its fleet [3]. - A five-year time charter extension for three 9,500 TEU container vessels with Maersk is expected to add approximately $225 million to the backlog from 2026 through 2031 [7]. Dividend Information - The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share, to be paid on or around September 29, 2025, with a record date of September 12, 2025 [5][6]. - Since its inception in 2004, SFL has distributed a total of $2.9 billion to shareholders through 86 consecutive quarterly cash dividends [5]. Market Conditions - The market for the legacy drilling rig Hercules remains challenging due to recent market uncertainty and oil price volatility, which has delayed new employment opportunities [4]. - The company is optimistic about finding new employment for the rig while exploring strategic opportunities [4].