Group 1 - The current military escalation in the region has led to increased targeting of US bases, with Iranian sources claiming 27 bases were hit, potentially driving Brent crude prices to $150 in the near term if the situation escalates further [3] - The US lacks hypersonic missile capabilities, relying instead on older nuclear missiles that do not have mid-air steering capabilities, while Iran possesses advanced hypersonic missiles that could threaten US naval assets [5][6] - Sustained military operations against Iran could deplete US missile stockpiles quickly, as precision munitions like Tomahawks are costly and produced in limited quantities, raising concerns about the feasibility of a prolonged conflict [7] Group 2 - The base case scenario anticipates a short-term disruption with Brent crude prices spiking above $100 before stabilizing in the $80-90 range, contingent on the reopening of maritime passages [8] - Price action predictions suggest Brent could reach $85 to $90, reflecting a 20% increase, with WTI expected to hit $80, indicating that the market has already priced in some of the risks associated with the ongoing conflict [10] - The focus for market participants will be on identifying optimal re-entry points for long positions as the situation develops throughout the week [11]