Let's bring in city's global head of commodities research, Max Leightton. Max, a lot has transpired since we last spoke. Welcome back.And um we mentioned your price target potentially of 90 near-term on Brent. Where are you for WTI. And how are you thinking through where the price could go.>> So the next week or so, we think we will be trading uh at 80 to90 on Brent and around $5 to $8 lower than that on WTI. I mean I I would just you know I'd really highlight that the risk is uh extremely high at the momen ...

Group 1 - The current military escalation in the region has led to increased targeting of US bases, with Iranian sources claiming 27 bases were hit, potentially driving Brent crude prices to $150 in the near term if the situation escalates further [3] - The US lacks hypersonic missile capabilities, relying instead on older nuclear missiles that do not have mid-air steering capabilities, while Iran possesses advanced hypersonic missiles that could threaten US naval assets [5][6] - Sustained military operations against Iran could deplete US missile stockpiles quickly, as precision munitions like Tomahawks are costly and produced in limited quantities, raising concerns about the feasibility of a prolonged conflict [7] Group 2 - The base case scenario anticipates a short-term disruption with Brent crude prices spiking above $100 before stabilizing in the $80-90 range, contingent on the reopening of maritime passages [8] - Price action predictions suggest Brent could reach $85 to $90, reflecting a 20% increase, with WTI expected to hit $80, indicating that the market has already priced in some of the risks associated with the ongoing conflict [10] - The focus for market participants will be on identifying optimal re-entry points for long positions as the situation develops throughout the week [11]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have increased despite an initial decline, primarily due to rising concerns over potential U.S. military actions in Iran and the associated risk of supply disruptions in the region [1][2] Group 1: Oil Price Movement - Brent crude oil prices rose by 0.7% to $65.94 per barrel, while WTI increased by 0.7% to $61.57 per barrel [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors' perceptions of upside risks in the oil market have heightened, particularly regarding military actions that could impact oil infrastructure [2] - The most significant risks to the global oil market are linked to potential military strikes or retaliatory actions by Tehran, which could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz [2]

Group 1 - Oil prices are rising due to increased tensions over Venezuela, contributing to fears of supply disruptions [1] - The recent increase marks the largest five-day gain since October 27 and the longest winning streak since March 27 [1] - Brent crude prices rose by 0.4% to $62.14 per barrel, with a total increase of 5.87% over the past five sessions [1] Group 2 - WTI crude prices increased by 0.6% to $58.71 per barrel [1] - President Trump has ordered a blockade of oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and declared the airspace around the country closed [1]