Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific securities Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has been lowering the fixings, reaching new year-to-date lows below 7.15, indicating a potential shift in currency management strategy [4][6] - There are expectations for significant dividend payouts from Chinese companies, estimated at approximately $23 billion in July, which may create near-term resistance for the USD/CNY exchange rate [4][16] - Anticipation of domestic policy stimulus and a potential summit between President Trump and President Xi is increasing, which could impact market sentiment and currency strength [4][20] Summary by Sections Currency Management - The PBoC's recent actions to lower fixings are seen as a response to the multi-month weakness of the dollar and narrowing tariff rate differentials, allowing for a stronger CNY [4][6] - The PBoC has also relaxed capital controls, increasing the overseas investment quota for Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII) for the first time since May 2024, which may enhance capital flows [9][12] Dividend Payouts - The report highlights that heavy dividend payouts in July could exert downward pressure on the CNY, with expectations of a peak in outflows around this time [4][16] - Major companies are scheduled to make significant dividend payouts, which could influence market dynamics and currency performance [19] Market Sentiment and Policy Expectations - There is speculation regarding potential housing market support from upcoming policy meetings, which could lead to a rally in property stocks and overall market sentiment [20][25] - The report notes that while speculation-driven rallies in China can be short-lived, current market conditions may allow for further equity gains, impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate [20][25]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets Core Insights - Uncertainty around US tariffs has intensified, with a recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs, suggesting potential risks of lower tariffs on China, but alternative authorities for tariff imposition remain [4][3] - Investor sentiment towards China remains negative despite a recent trade truce, with global investors showing interest primarily in sectors with clear earnings growth potential [9][12] - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is promoting RMB internationalization as a strategy for de-dollarization, aiming to increase the RMB's share in goods trade to 40% [23][17] Summary by Sections Current Trade Recommendations - Long positions in 3-year CGB (FX-hedged) initiated on March 7, 2025, with a current yield of 1.49% and a profit of +4 basis points [2] Tariff and FX Market Dynamics - The FX market is experiencing a managed fix, with the CNY remaining stable against the dollar, tracking a narrow range of 7.18-19 [4][7] - The CNY has outperformed regional peers despite the broader dollar trend, indicating a degree of resilience in the currency [5][4] Investor Sentiment and Market Activity - Despite a normalization in export activities and a rebound in shipping prices post-trade truce, financial markets in China remain downbeat, with limited interest from local investors to repatriate dollars [9][17] - Local Chinese investors are hesitant to repatriate dollars due to weak economic fundamentals and low interest rates, with a notable shift from net buyers to net sellers of USD [17][25] RMB Internationalization Efforts - The share of CNY-denominated flows in goods trade has increased from 11% in 2018 to over 25% in 2024, driven by PBoC's policy push [23][27] - Commodity-related yuan settlement has risen significantly, indicating a growing trend towards using RMB in international trade [28][23]