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各现金流指数差异在哪?哪种指数与传统资产相关性更低?
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-01 08:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cash - flow ETFs have become popular products in overseas markets, and domestic products are being actively申报. "Large - medium market capitalization + central state - owned enterprises + abundant cash flow" is expected to be one of the annual investment themes. With policies like the new "Nine - Point Plan", the small - cap premium has declined, and policies are expected to drive central state - owned enterprises to improve profitability [2]. - Domestic free cash - flow indices are in the ascendant, and there are differences among them. The FTSE China A - Share Free Cash - Flow Focus Index (FTSE Cash - Flow) has a more detailed sample - selection space compared to similar indices, with 50 constituent stocks and a multi - angle screening mechanism that includes unique quality factors, volatility, and growth indicators [2]. - In terms of market - capitalization and industry distribution, the FTSE Cash - Flow shows a prominent large - medium market - capitalization style, with low valuation. It is relatively "resilient" during market corrections. The FTSE Cash - Flow has a lower correlation with traditional styles among cash - flow indices, has a high risk - return ratio, and can be used in investment strategies such as the dumbbell strategy with technology indices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Free Cash Flow Has Become a High - Potential Investment Direction in the Domestic ETF Market - **Maturity of Overseas Cash - Flow ETFs**: Overseas cash - flow products have achieved fruitful results. As of April 25, 2025, the largest US free cash - flow ETF, COWZ, had a scale of over $20 billion [8]. - **Diversity of Overseas Free Cash - Flow Index Compilation Schemes**: Different overseas free cash - flow indices have various compilation methods. For example, CALF and COWZ are based on different sample spaces and use free cash - flow yield for screening and weighting [10]. - **Long - Term Effectiveness of Domestic Cash - Flow Strategies**: Since 2012, A - share enterprises (excluding finance) have shifted from an incremental to a stock - thinking business model, and free cash - flow has been increasing steadily since 2014. Companies with sufficient cash flow have shown significant excess returns compared to broad - based indices [20]. - **"Large - Medium Market Capitalization + Central State - Owned Enterprises + Abundant Cash Flow" as an Investment Theme**: From 2021 - 2023, the small - cap style was dominant, but after the introduction of policies in 2024, the small - cap premium declined. The investment cash outflow of large - cap stocks has been rising steadily since June 2021, while that of small - cap stocks decreased significantly in Q1 2025 [22]. 3.2 Domestic Free Cash - Flow Indices Are in the Ascendant, with Differences Among Them - **Index Compilation Scheme Comparison**: The mainstream domestic cash - flow indices include the FTSE Cash - Flow, China Securities Cash - Flow, and Shenzhen Securities Information Cash - Flow. The FTSE Cash - Flow has 50 constituent stocks, excludes financial and real - estate industries, and uses a multi - factor screening mechanism. It combines cash - flow and volatility factors, which is expected to achieve excess returns [32][35]. - **Industry and Market - Capitalization Distribution Comparison** - **Market - Capitalization Distribution**: The FTSE Cash - Flow has a large - medium market - capitalization style, with 18% of its constituent stocks having a total market capitalization of over 100 billion. It is more "resilient" during market corrections [40]. - **Industry Distribution**: The FTSE Cash - Flow has high weights in industries such as household appliances, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverages. Overseas cash - flow ETFs have a higher proportion of technology stocks, and domestic cash - flow indices may include more technology - oriented enterprises in the future [46]. - **Constituent - Stock Overlap**: The constituent stocks of the FTSE Cash - Flow have a high overlap (95.95%) with major broad - based indices, especially 71.17% with the CSI 300, and are expected to benefit from subsequent policies [56]. - **Index Valuation**: As of July 18, 2025, the FTSE Cash - Flow has a relatively low price - to - earnings ratio (TTM of 11.25) and price - to - book ratio (1.49) among similar indices, and a relatively high dividend yield (4.76%), indicating investment value [61]. 3.3 The Risk - Return Profiles of Cash - Flow Indices Are Generally Similar, and the FTSE Cash - Flow Index Has a Lower Correlation with Traditional Styles - **Risk - Return Analysis**: The FTSE Cash - Flow has outperformed the dividend index in the long - term and has a high risk - return ratio. As of July 18, 2025, its risk - return ratio reached 0.85, higher than the CSI Dividend's 0.63 and the Dividend Low - Volatility's 0.68 [65]. - **Reasons for the FTSE Cash - Flow's Leading Returns** - **Relationship between Market Capitalization and Cash - Flow Yield**: The cash - flow yield factor is more effective in large - cap stocks. However, it also shows a certain enhancement effect in large - medium market - capitalization stock pools. The FTSE Cash - Flow selects stocks from large - medium market - capitalization indices such as the CSI 300 and CSI 500 based on free cash - flow yield [69][70]. - **Low - Volatility and Quality Factors**: The FTSE Cash - Flow uses quality and low - volatility factors from the FTSE Global Factor Index System, which enhances the index's risk - resistance and long - term holding value [85]. - **Investment Strategies**: The free cash - flow strategy and the dividend strategy can complement each other. The FTSE Cash - Flow, as a "dividend plus" strategy, has a lower correlation with technology indices and the partial - stock hybrid fund index than traditional dividend indices, and can be used to construct investment portfolios to improve risk diversification [96][97].
A股自由现金流指数比较:各现金流指数差异在哪?哪种指数与传统资产相关性更低?
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-01 07:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Free cash flow has become a high-potential investment direction in the domestic ETF market, and the "large and medium market capitalization + central state-owned enterprises + abundant cash flow" is expected to be one of the annual investment mainlines [3][9] - Domestic free cash flow indices are emerging, with differences among various indices. The FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index (FTSE Cash Flow) stands out in terms of compilation, market capitalization distribution, valuation, and return-risk characteristics [3][30] - The FTSE Cash Flow Index has a lower correlation with traditional styles, a higher return-risk ratio, and can be used to construct investment strategies such as a dumbbell strategy with technology indices and a differentiated allocation with partial equity hybrid fund indices [3][92][93] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Free cash flow has become a high-potential investment direction in the domestic ETF market - Overseas cash flow ETFs are mature, with diverse free cash flow indicator compilation schemes. For example, as of April 25, 2025, the scale of COWZ in the US exceeded $20 billion [9] - Domestic cash flow strategies are expected to be effective in the long term. Since 2014, A-share free cash flow has been positive and growing steadily, and companies with sufficient cash flow have shown significant excess returns [19] - The "large and medium market capitalization + central state-owned enterprises + abundant cash flow" is expected to be one of the annual investment mainlines. Since the introduction of the new "Nine National Policies" in 2024, the small-cap premium has declined, and large-cap stocks' investment cash outflows have been rising steadily [21][24] 3.2 Domestic free cash flow indices are emerging, with differences among various indices 3.2.1 Index Compilation Scheme Comparison - The mainstream domestic cash flow indices include the FTSE Cash Flow, Guozheng Cash Flow, and China Securities Cash Flow. The FTSE Cash Flow has a more refined sample space, with 50 constituent stocks, and uses unique quality, volatility, and growth indicators for multi-dimensional screening [3][30] - Compared with other cash flow indices, the FTSE Cash Flow's compilation scheme excludes securities with high volatility, and the combination of cash flow and volatility factors is expected to achieve higher excess returns [33] 3.2.2 Industry Market Capitalization Distribution Comparison - **Market Capitalization Distribution**: The FTSE Cash Flow has a larger market capitalization among similar indices, with 18% of constituent stocks having a total market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan, showing a large and medium market capitalization style. It is more resistant to market downturns [38][42] - **Industry Distribution**: The weights of the FTSE Cash Flow are concentrated in the energy and consumption industries. As of July 18, 2025, the top three industries in terms of weight are household appliances, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverages [44] - **Constituent Stock Overlap**: The FTSE Cash Flow has a higher overlap with major broad-based indices, with a cumulative overlap of 95.95% with the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, and is expected to benefit from subsequent policies [54] 3.2.3 Index Valuation - The FTSE Cash Flow has a lower valuation and a higher dividend yield among similar indices. As of July 18, 2025, its price-to-book ratio is 1.49, and its dividend yield is 4.76%, providing a relatively high margin of safety [59] 3.3 The return and risk of cash flow indices are generally similar, and the FTSE Cash Flow Index has a lower correlation with traditional styles 3.3.1 Return and Risk - The FTSE Cash Flow has outperformed the dividend index in the long term and has a high return-risk ratio. As of July 18, 2025, its return-risk ratio is 0.85, higher than that of the CSI Dividend Index (0.63) and the Dividend Low Volatility Index (0.68) [60][63] 3.3.2 Reasons for the Leading Returns of the FTSE Cash Flow Index - **Relationship between Market Capitalization and Cash Flow Yield**: The cash flow yield factor is more effective in large-cap stocks. The FTSE Cash Flow selects stocks from large and medium-cap stock pools, enhancing returns by selecting stocks with superior cash flow yields [67][68] - **Low Volatility and Quality Factors**: The FTSE Cash Flow further filters stocks using low volatility and quality factors from the FTSE Global Factor Index System, enhancing the index's risk resistance and long-term holding value [82] 3.3.3 Investment Strategy - The free cash flow strategy and the dividend strategy can complement each other. The FTSE Cash Flow, as a "dividend plus" strategy, can be combined with technology indices to construct a dumbbell strategy with lower volatility and form a differentiated allocation with partial equity hybrid fund indices [92][93]