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【ARM(ARM.O)】FY26Q2指引相对平淡,自主芯片设计挑战和机遇并存——FY2026Q1业绩点评(付天姿/董馨悦)
光大证券研究· 2025-08-03 23:06
Core Viewpoint - The company's FY26Q1 performance met guidance, but FY26Q2 guidance appears weak, indicating potential challenges ahead in revenue growth and profitability [3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - FY26Q1 revenue was $1.053 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 15%, aligning with the company's previous guidance of $1.0 to $1.1 billion [3]. - Non-GAAP EPS for FY26Q1 was $0.35, down 12.5% year-over-year, consistent with the company's guidance range of $0.30 to $0.38 [3]. - FY26Q2 revenue guidance is set at $1.01 to $1.11 billion, with a midpoint indicating a year-over-year increase of 25.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.7%, but below market expectations [3]. Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - FY26Q1 licensing revenue was $468 million, a slight year-over-year decrease of 0.8%, affected by the timing of high-value licensing agreements [4]. - Royalty revenue for FY26Q1 reached $585 million, a year-over-year increase of 25%, driven by the increased adoption of the Armv9 architecture and growth in data center usage [5]. - The annual contract value (ACV) for FY26Q1 was $1.528 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 28%, supported by new collaborations and high-value licensing agreements [4]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to increase R&D investment focusing on CSS, AI computing, and chiplets, which may enhance future revenue streams [3]. - The company is considering expanding into self-designed chips based on the Arm IP ecosystem, which could increase average transaction value but also poses risks related to customer relationships and profit margins [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical factors have a limited direct impact on the company, with FY26Q1 revenue from China accounting for 21%, showing a quarter-over-quarter increase of 6 percentage points and a year-over-year increase of 7 percentage points [3]. - The company has seen significant growth in its data center market share, with over 70,000 enterprises running AI workloads on Arm Neoverse chips, a 14-fold increase since 2021 [5].