The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Q1 2025 Earnings Call August 27, 2025 07:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsCrystal Beiting - VP - IR & FP&AMark Smucker - CEO & Chair of the BoardTucker Marshall - CFOCrystal BeitingGood morning. This is Crystal Beiting, Vice President, Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis for The J. M. Smucker Company. Thank you for listening to our prepared remarks on our fiscal twenty twenty six first quarter earnings call.After this brief introduction, Mark Smucker, Chief Exe ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 1% decrease in net sales for the first quarter, while comparable net sales increased by 2%, excluding prior year sales related to divested businesses and foreign currency exchange [31] - Adjusted gross profit decreased by $89 million or 11% compared to the prior year, primarily due to higher commodity costs and unfavorable volume mix [33] - Adjusted earnings per share was $1.90, a decrease of 22% versus the prior year, but exceeded expectations due to better-than-anticipated net sales [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the US retail coffee segment, net sales increased by 15%, driven by an 18 percentage point increase from net price realization [34] - The US retail pet foods segment saw a decrease in net sales by 8%, primarily due to a decline in dog snacks and lower contract manufacturing sales related to divested pet food brands [36] - The Sweet Baked Snacks segment experienced a 24% decrease in net sales, with a 54% decrease in segment profit reflecting unfavorable volume mix and higher costs [37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The away from home business grew net sales by 14% on a comparable basis, driven by coffee and Uncrustables sandwiches [39] - International net sales decreased by 6% on a comparable basis, primarily reflecting a decrease in the coffee portfolio [39] - The company anticipates a higher US tariff impact on green coffee costs, which is expected to be a 50¢ headwind for the fiscal year [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on three strategic priorities: accelerating organic growth, embedding transformation in everyday operations, and fostering a bold mindset [5] - The Uncrustables brand is projected to generate over $1 billion in net sales by the end of the fiscal year, continuing strong double-digit growth [11] - The company is reducing SKU count by 25% for the Hostess brand to improve operational efficiencies and drive margin expansion [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the external environment remains dynamic, with ongoing input inflation and changes in consumer behavior impacting the fiscal year outlook [41] - The company is revising its full-year net sales expectations to increase by 3% to 5%, primarily due to the strength of the coffee portfolio [28] - Management remains confident in the long-term growth outlook and the ability to deliver shareholder value despite external challenges [30] Other Important Information - The company achieved $100 million in total run rate synergies from the Hostess Brands acquisition [16] - Free cash flow for the first quarter was negative $94.9 million, reflecting a decrease in cash provided by operating activities [39] - The company plans to prioritize debt reduction, aiming to pay down approximately $500 million of debt in each of the next two fiscal years [40] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the coffee segment? - The coffee segment is expected to remain resilient despite inflationary pressures, with approximately 70% of coffee drinking occasions occurring at home [21] Question: How is the company addressing the impact of tariffs? - The company is working to mitigate cost increases through alternative sourcing strategies and responsible pricing [45] Question: What is the outlook for the Sweet Baked Snacks segment? - The Sweet Baked Snacks segment is anticipated to improve sequentially, with increased dollar sales and volume growth noted in the Hostess brand [25]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered positive results in fiscal year 2025, reflecting top line growth supported by strong consumer demand and bottom line growth driven by disciplined cost management [2][3] - Approximately $700 million of debt was repaid in fiscal year 2025, with plans to pay down an additional $500 million in each of the next two fiscal years [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on key growth platforms including Uncrustables, Cafe Bustelo, Meow Mix, Milk Bone, and Hostess Brands to drive organic growth [3][4] - A comprehensive plan is being executed to stabilize the Hostess brand and return it to growth [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company remains well positioned to navigate dynamic input costs, including green coffee volatility, through its strong portfolio [4] - Approximately 90% of U.S. homes have a product from the company's portfolio, indicating a strong market presence [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is amplifying successful strategies and evolving its approach where needed, with a focus on driving organic growth and embedding a transformation mindset [3] - There is a commitment to consumer-led innovation and leveraging data and insights to anticipate consumer needs [4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strategy and the strength of its brand portfolio, anticipating continued growth and shareholder value [4][24] - The external environment is expected to remain dynamic, but the company is excited about future opportunities [4] Other Important Information - The company recognized the retirement of board member Alex Schumate, highlighting his contributions over 16 years [5] - The annual meeting included voting on three management proposals, all of which were approved by shareholders [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: When do you anticipate the Hostess debt will be repaid? - The company plans to pay down approximately $500 million of debt annually in each of the next two fiscal years, aiming for a leverage ratio at or below three times net debt to adjusted EBITDA by the end of fiscal year 2027 [17] Question: How do you manage hyper politicization of publicly traded corporations? - The company approaches each decision with responsibility, considering alignment with values and potential for positive change, prioritizing the needs of consumers and shareholders [18][19] Question: What effect will global tariffs have on the company? - The company is monitoring trade policy and tariffs, particularly regarding coffee, which cannot be grown in the U.S., and anticipates a 25% adjusted earnings per share impact for fiscal year 2026 due to tariffs [20][21] Question: Did my shares count in the voting? - All shares are treated equally for voting purposes, as the company stopped differentiating long-term shares in 2022 [22]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered positive results in FY 2025, reflecting top line growth supported by strong consumer demand and bottom line growth driven by disciplined cost management [2][3] - Approximately $700 million of debt was repaid in FY 2025, with plans to pay down an additional $500 million in each of the next two fiscal years [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on key growth platforms including Uncrustables, Cafe Bustelo, Meow Mix, Milk Bone, and Hostess Brands to drive organic growth [3][4] - A comprehensive plan is being executed to stabilize the Hostess brand and return it to growth [3] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company remains well positioned to navigate dynamic input costs, including green coffee volatility, through its strong portfolio [4] - Approximately 90% of U.S. homes have a product from the company's portfolio, indicating a strong market presence [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is amplifying successful strategies and evolving its approach where necessary, with a focus on driving organic growth and embedding a transformation mindset [3] - There is a commitment to consumer-led innovation and leveraging data and insights to anticipate consumer needs [4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate a dynamic environment and highlighted the strength of its brand portfolio [4] - The company anticipates a leverage ratio at or below three times net debt to adjusted EBITDA by the end of FY 2027, providing financial flexibility for capital deployment [17] Other Important Information - Alex Schumate, a long-serving board member, is retiring, and his contributions were acknowledged [5][6] - The company plans to publicly announce final voting results on or before August 19, 2025 [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: When do you anticipate the Hostess debt will be repaid? - The company plans to pay down approximately $500 million of debt annually in each of the next two fiscal years, aiming for a leverage ratio at or below three times net debt to adjusted EBITDA by the end of FY 2027 [17] Question: How do you manage issues related to the hyper politicization of publicly traded corporations? - The company approaches each decision with responsibility, considering alignment with values and potential for positive change, while prioritizing business operations and stakeholder interests [18][19] Question: What effect will global tariffs have on the company? - The company is monitoring trade policy and tariffs, particularly regarding coffee, which cannot be grown in the U.S., and anticipates a 25% adjusted earnings per share impact for FY 2026 due to tariffs [20][21] Question: Did my shares count in the voting? - All shares are treated equally for voting purposes, as the company stopped treating long-term shares differently in 2022 [22][23]

Core Insights - Food companies are facing increased price sensitivity, uneven volume trends, and challenges to brand loyalty as consumers seek value [1] - Companies that can protect margins, manage input costs, and adapt to changing consumption habits are likely to succeed [1] The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) - SJM is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on portfolio optimization through acquisitions and divestitures, including the acquisition of Hostess Brands in late 2023 [3][4] - The Hostess acquisition enhances SJM's position in the snacking category, with a 3% year-over-year sales increase in its International and Away From Home segment [4] - Despite growth, SJM's adjusted gross profit declined by 9% year-over-year in the fiscal fourth quarter due to higher input costs and weaker volume [5] - SJM is increasing marketing investments for key brands, leading to a 3% rise in selling, distribution, and administrative expenses [6] Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) - POST is strengthening its position through consistent performance, with Foodservice segment net sales rising 9.6% year-over-year to $607.9 million in Q2 fiscal 2025 [7] - Strategic pricing actions have allowed POST to protect margins amid inflation, offsetting input cost inflation and volume softness [8][9] - POST's recent acquisitions, including 8th Avenue Food & Provisions and Potato Products of Idaho, support a diversified growth strategy [10] - POST benefits from a well-diversified portfolio and disciplined execution, positioning it as a resilient player in the food industry [11] Financial Comparisons - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for POST's fiscal 2025 EPS is $6.63, while SJM's estimate has decreased by 4% to $9.28 [12] - POST trades at a forward P/E of 14.54x compared to SJM's 11.1x, reflecting stronger earnings momentum for POST [13] - In the past three months, POST's stock has declined by 6.9%, outperforming SJM's 8.8% drop, justifying the valuation gap [13] Conclusion - SJM is in a rebuilding phase, focusing on long-term growth through portfolio reshaping, while POST is growing through strategic pricing and disciplined execution [16] - In the current inflation-sensitive market, POST is viewed as the safer and smarter investment choice [16]

Group 1: Company Overview - The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is facing challenges entering fiscal 2026, with gross margin pressures due to cost inflation, unfavorable product mix, and soft volumes [1] - In Q4 of fiscal 2025, SJM reported a 9% year-over-year decline in adjusted gross profit and an 8% drop in adjusted operating income, primarily due to higher costs and reduced sales volume [1][8] Group 2: Financial Forecast - SJM expects the fiscal 2026 adjusted gross profit margin to be between 35.5% and 36%, influenced by elevated commodity and manufacturing costs, as well as negative volume/mix [2] - The company anticipates a 3% year-over-year increase in selling, distribution, and administrative expenses in fiscal 2026, driven by higher marketing investments for key growth brands [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus - SJM is focusing on brand investment and operational efficiency to overcome margin pressures, which will require disciplined cost control and sustained consumer demand [4] - The total marketing spend is projected to reach 5.7% of net sales, an increase of 30 basis points from the previous year, aimed at supporting brands like Cafe Bustelo and Uncrustables [3][8] Group 4: Industry Context - SJM's peers, such as Conagra Brands and Lamb Weston, are also managing inflationary pressures and shifting consumer demand, with Conagra facing a 389 basis point decline in adjusted gross margin due to elevated costs [5] - Lamb Weston reported a 9% global volume growth while executing over 30 strategic projects, despite a 5% decline in price/mix due to pricing adjustments [6] Group 5: Stock Performance and Valuation - SJM shares have decreased by 5.5% over the past year, contrasting with the industry's growth of 3.1% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.06X, below the industry average of 16.01X [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to be lower year over year at the midpoint, with a guidance range of $9, impacted by $0.80 from coffee inflation and $0.25 from tariffs [8][10][60] - Free cash flow for FY 2025 was reported at $817 million, approximately $100 million below expectations, primarily due to green coffee inflation and higher inventory balances [99] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Sweet Baked Snacks segment is expected to see a decline in segment profit, contributing an additional $0.20 impact to EPS guidance [10] - The coffee segment is projected to have around 20% net pricing factored into the FY 2026 outlook, with a negative 10% volume impact due to price elasticity [13][35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has observed a strong performance in the coffee portfolio, particularly with brands like Cafe Bustelo and Dunkin', which have stabilized due to normalized pricing [43] - The pet portfolio experienced a $20 million impact from inventory destocking at certain retailers, but overall momentum remains strong [93] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on optimizing its portfolio and investing in core brands like Donuts and Cupcakes to drive growth [20][21] - A strategic shift has been made to strengthen the core brands and improve execution through dedicated sales forces and streamlined operations [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the need for cautious guidance due to external factors impacting profitability, including coffee inflation and tariffs [10][60] - The company remains optimistic about future growth opportunities, particularly through key growth platforms and brand building efforts [102] Other Important Information - The long-term growth rate for the Sweet Baked Snacks portfolio has been revised from 4% to 3%, reflecting a more conservative outlook based on category performance [31] - The company plans to address tariff impacts through pricing strategies and cost management efforts [53] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of higher green coffee costs on EPS growth - Management confirmed that higher green coffee costs and tariffs have significantly impacted EPS guidance, leading to a more subdued outlook [8][10] Question: Details on Hostess SKU and display rationalizations - Management emphasized the focus on core brands like Donuts and Cupcakes, indicating a need to optimize the portfolio for growth [19][20] Question: Pricing strategy for coffee segment - The company is implementing pricing across the entire coffee portfolio, with a significant focus on green coffee pricing [35] Question: Expectations for Sweet Baked Snacks performance - Management expects improvement in the Sweet Baked Snacks portfolio in the back half of the year due to stabilization efforts and easier comparisons [36][38] Question: Free cash flow guidance for FY 2026 - The company anticipates free cash flow of $875 million for FY 2026, driven by lower capital expenditures and effective working capital management [99][100]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance for fiscal year 2026 at the midpoint of $9, which reflects a decline year-over-year when excluding impacts from coffee inflation and tariffs [10][32] - The adjusted EPS was impacted by $0.80 from green coffee inflation and $0.25 from tariffs, indicating a cautious outlook for the upcoming fiscal year [10][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Sweet Baked Snacks segment is expected to see a decline in segment profit on a comparable basis, contributing an additional $0.20 impact to the adjusted EPS [11] - The company is focusing on core brands like Donuts and Cupcakes for growth, emphasizing the need for innovation and marketing investments in these areas [20][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The coffee segment is experiencing a net pricing increase of around 20% for fiscal year 2026, with a negative volume impact of approximately 10% due to price elasticity of demand [14][37] - The away-from-home coffee business is expected to see high single-digit pricing increases, indicating a strong focus on recovering costs in this segment [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to investing in key growth platforms, particularly around brands like Cafe Bustelo and Uncrustables, to support long-term growth [10][102] - A strategic focus on optimizing the portfolio and enhancing brand building efforts is emphasized, particularly in the Sweet Baked Snacks and coffee segments [22][102] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the importance of ongoing marketing investments to support growth platforms and indicated a cautious approach to guidance due to external factors impacting profitability [11][62] - The company remains optimistic about stabilizing the Hostess brand and believes that focusing on core products will drive future growth [25][80] Other Important Information - The company reported free cash flow of $817 million for fiscal year 2025, which was below expectations due to higher inventory balances and green coffee inflation [99] - Fiscal year 2026 free cash flow guidance is set at $875 million, with expectations of improved management of working capital and lower capital expenditures [99] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of higher green coffee costs on EPS growth - Management confirmed that higher green coffee costs and tariffs have significantly impacted the EPS outlook, leading to a more subdued forecast for fiscal year 2026 [10][32] Question: Details on SKU and display rationalizations for Hostess - Management indicated a focus on core brands like Donuts and Cupcakes, emphasizing the need for clarity and optimization in the product portfolio [20][22] Question: Pricing strategy for the coffee segment - The company is implementing pricing across the entire coffee portfolio, with a significant focus on recovering costs associated with green coffee inflation and tariffs [37] Question: Long-term growth outlook for Hostess - The long-term growth rate for the Sweet Baked Snacks portfolio has been revised from 4% to 3%, reflecting a more cautious outlook based on category performance [32] Question: Free cash flow guidance and debt management - Management outlined that the anticipated free cash flow for fiscal year 2026 will be used for debt paydown and dividend payments, with a combination of generated cash and excess cash from the balance sheet [99]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a total net sales decline of 3% in the fourth quarter, with comparable net sales decreasing by 1% when excluding divestitures and foreign currency impacts [33][34] - Adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter was $2.31, a decrease of 13% compared to the prior year [36] - Free cash flow for the fourth quarter was $299 million, slightly up from $298 million in the prior year, with full-year free cash flow reaching $817 million, an increase of $174 million [42][43] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Uncrustables brand achieved approximately $920 million in net sales, growing over $125 million in fiscal year 2025, driven by advertising and distribution gains [7][8] - The Cafe Bustelo brand grew net sales by 19% in the US retail coffee portfolio, ending fiscal year 2025 with approximately $400 million in net sales [9] - The Sweet Baked Snacks segment saw a significant decline in net sales, decreasing by 26% versus the prior year, with a 72% drop in segment profit [40][41] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the US retail coffee segment, net sales increased by 11%, primarily due to higher net pricing for Folgers and Cafe Bustelo [36] - The US retail pet foods segment experienced a 13% decline in net sales, attributed to unexpected retailer inventory headwinds [20][38] - International and away-from-home net sales grew by 4%, driven by strong performance in the away-from-home business [22][41] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to stabilize and refocus the Sweet Baked Snacks segment for sustainable growth, with a long-term net sales growth expectation of 3% [12][33] - Strategic priorities for fiscal year 2026 include accelerating organic growth by investing in key platforms and embedding transformation in everyday operations [25][26] - The company anticipates that key platforms, including Uncrustables and Cafe Bustelo, will deliver over 80% of the company's growth over the next five years [16][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the dynamic operating environment, including inflationary pressures and evolving consumer behavior, which necessitates cautious guidance for fiscal year 2026 [26][45] - The company expects full-year net sales to increase by 2% to 4%, with comparable net sales anticipated to grow approximately 4.5% at the midpoint of the guidance range [27][45] - Management expressed confidence in the company's strategy and ability to navigate challenges while focusing on long-term growth and shareholder value [30][51] Other Important Information - The company recognized significant impairment charges totaling $980 million related to the Sweet Baked Snacks segment and Hostess brand [32] - Capital expenditures for the year were $394 million, representing 4.5% of net sales, with a target of approximately 3.5% of net sales in the long term [43][44] - The company plans to prioritize debt reduction, aiming to pay down approximately $500 million of debt annually over the next two years [44] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the Sweet Baked Snacks segment? - Management anticipates low single-digit declines in comparable net sales for the Sweet Baked Snacks segment as they work to stabilize the Hostess brand [46] Question: How is the company addressing inflationary pressures? - The company is implementing price increases to recover costs associated with rising green coffee prices and other inflationary pressures [18][49] Question: What is the outlook for free cash flow? - The company projects free cash flow of approximately $875 million at the midpoint of adjusted earnings per share guidance [50]