Market Overview - The market has been experiencing bullish momentum, with the S&P 500 expected to see an 8% growth in profits during the upcoming earnings season, which is notable as estimates have been rising [3][34] - The current market conditions are characterized by active dip buyers who have been purchasing during corrections of 8-10%, indicating a strong upward trend [6][10] - October is historically a month of increased volatility, which can lead to both market crashes and opportunities for investors [12][14] Company Focus: Alphabet (Google) - Alphabet has been identified as a top performer among the MAG 7 stocks, with bullish sentiment surrounding its prospects due to fading antitrust risks and positive AI developments [20][23] - Analysts suggest that Alphabet could see a potential stock price increase of 25-30% next year, with a more immediate target of a 10-15% increase over the next six months [24][25] - The current stock price is around $242-244, with options strategies being discussed that involve targeting a strike price of $260 for potential profitability [26][27] Earnings Season Insights - The upcoming earnings season is expected to set a high bar for performance, with analysts previously estimating a 3-4% gain, which has now increased to 8% [34][35] - Companies that typically outperform during earnings season may not face significant penalties for disappointing results, while those with weaker technicals could be punished [37][39] - The focus during earnings season should be on high-quality names and strong momentum stocks, with an emphasis on institutional buying patterns [40][42] Volatility and Risk Management - Volatility is described as a double-edged sword, presenting both risks and opportunities for investors, particularly in the context of options trading [7][63] - Defined risk in options trading allows investors to limit potential losses to the premium paid for the option, while offering unlimited upside potential [29][65] - Effective risk management is crucial for navigating market fluctuations, and investors are encouraged to adhere to their risk management rules [61][62]

Company Overview - Carmax is the largest used-car retailer in the U.S. and also conducts wholesale vehicle auctions, making it one of the largest in the country [7] - The company reported its Q2 2026 results, with shares declining by 20% following the announcement [7] Financial Performance - Carmax missed both top and bottom-line analyst estimates for the quarter, with revenues of $6.6 billion, which is 6% lower than the previous year and $410 million below Wall Street consensus [8] - The earnings per share were 99 cents, falling short by six cents of analyst expectations [8] - The company experienced a decline in sales each month during the quarter, indicating a weakening trend [9] Market Context - Despite the S&P 500's increase of nearly 13% in 2025, most used-car buyers are financially constrained [10] - U.S. household wealth reached $176.3 trillion at the end of June, but the growth in wealth is likely concentrated among the top 10% of Americans, who may not be the primary customers for used cars [11] Stock Performance - Following the recent decline, Carmax's market value has decreased by 44% in 2025, now standing at $6.84 billion, a level not seen since 2016 [12] - Technical analysis suggests a potential for further decline, with a strong sell rating indicating a 100% certainty of continued price decrease [13] Analyst Ratings - Among 19 analysts covering Carmax, 11 rate it a Buy with a target price of $77.94, which is 71% higher than its current share price [13] - Analysts are generally slow to revise target prices downward, which may not reflect the current market conditions accurately [13] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP rose by 3.8% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, but this growth was partly due to a decline in imports from tariffs [14] - Household debt reached $185 billion in the second quarter, with a delinquency rate of 4.4%, indicating potential financial strain on consumers [15] Options Strategy - A long strangle strategy involving a $47.50 call and a $40 put was set up, requiring Carmax's share price to exceed $49.55 or drop below $37.95 to be profitable [16] - The expected price movement is 7.38% in either direction, with a profit probability of only 27.3% [17]

Core Insights - Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) stock has surpassed its November 2024 highs and January 2025 lows, indicating a potential bullish trend [1] - The stock has cleared significant resistance levels, including the year-to-date breakeven level and the +10% year-to-date level, which may now act as support [1] - A notable increase in call volume on Friday suggests a potential turning point or breakout for the stock [2] Options Analysis - The recommended call option for AMZN has a leverage ratio of 9.8, indicating a strong potential for profit [2][3] - This call option is expected to double in value with a 10.3% increase in the underlying equity [2][3] - The current market conditions, including a heavy put bias and affordable options pricing, suggest it may be an opportune time to invest in AMZN [2]

Group 1: Options Trading Insights - The recommended September call option has a leverage ratio of 7.5 and will double on a 13.6% gain in the underlying security [1] - A front-month gamma-weighted Schaeffer's open interest ratio (SOIR) above 1.00 may indicate an immediate pending move [1] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) is in the 19th percentile of its annual range, suggesting options are a preferred trading route [1] Group 2: ONEOK, Inc. Stock Analysis - ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) is attempting to establish a low at its 2020 highs, 2024 summer lows, and spring 2025 lows [2] - The shares are maintaining open interest (OI) balance at the 80-strike, with a previous low found at the peak put 75 strike in April [2] Group 3: Options Trading Services - Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader received commentary on OKE along with detailed options trade recommendations [3] - OKE options are currently affordably priced, indicating potential for movement [3] - The service aims to provide structured plans with clear entry and exit points for traders [4]

Core Viewpoint - Brinker International Inc (NYSE:EAT) is experiencing a breakout above the $165-$168 range, indicating a strong buying opportunity as it approaches its all-time high of $192.22 from February 4 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock has shown a significant year-to-date gain of 31.4% and a remarkable 148.9% increase over the last 12 months, suggesting strong performance [3] - The equity is bouncing sharply off its 10-month moving average, indicating potential upward momentum [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Analysts are generally bearish on EAT, with 14 out of 18 firms rating it as "hold" or worse, suggesting potential for upgrades [3] - There is a high level of put open interest at the 170-strike, with a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.40, ranking in the 98th percentile of annual readings, indicating prevailing pessimism that could reverse [2] Group 3: Short Selling and Options - Brinker International stock is positioned for a potential short squeeze, with 11.9% of its available float sold short, many of which are currently underwater [3] - The recommended call option has a leverage ratio of 7.4, which could double with a 14.4% gain in the underlying security [3]

Core Insights - eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) stock is poised to close above its post-May options expiration week open interest balance at the 70-strike, potentially breaking out above a significant weekly wick resistance area, which would indicate a new 52-week high and strong technical momentum [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - eBay has experienced a 15% year-to-date gain and a 65% rally since the beginning of 2024, yet market sentiment remains cautious with only three analysts rating it a "buy" [4] - The stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio stands at 1.43, ranking in the 97th annual percentile, indicating significant negative sentiment that could reverse and support further price increases [4] Group 2: Short Interest and Options - Short interest in eBay has decreased by 6.3% over the last two weeks, with short interest representing 4.6% of the stock's float, suggesting that additional covering could maintain bullish control [5] - The recommended call option has a leverage ratio of 10.6, indicating that it will double with a 9.3% move in the underlying shares [5]

Group 1 - The security is supported by its 200-day trendline and peak put open interest at the 165-strike, indicating strong technical support levels [1] - The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is 89 out of 100, suggesting it has outperformed options traders' volatility expectations over the past year [1] - The recommended call option has a leverage ratio of 7.7, which will double with a 13% increase in the underlying security [1] Group 2 - Interactive Brokers Group Inc (NASDAQ:IBKR) has recently surpassed its 50-day moving average and the $177-$180 pivot range, indicating bullish momentum [2] - The stock is trading above its year-to-date breakeven level and has achieved approximately a 50% year-over-year gain as of the last close [2] Group 3 - Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader options recommendation service received detailed commentary and trade recommendations for IBKR, highlighting its popularity [3] - The stock is currently trading above multiple layers of support, reinforcing its positive outlook [3] Group 4 - Schaeffer's Trade of the Week service offers a single, well-researched trade recommendation each week, aimed at providing clarity and focus for traders [4] - This service is designed for traders seeking a reliable strategy without the distraction of multiple alerts [4]