面对火热行情，多家券商发布研究报告对2026年锂价走势进行分析预测。中信建投认为碳酸锂供需矛盾已从供给 施压转向消费驱动，基本面大幅改善，但未给出具体价格区间；国泰君安期货指出多重因素交织下价格重心上 移、区间震荡，预计2026年碳酸锂价格上限约13.3万元/吨；五矿证券预计2026年市场步入"紧平衡"，锂价有望企 稳回升；赣锋锂业表示若需求增速超30%，供应无法平衡，价格可能突破15万元/吨甚至20万元/吨；华泰证券观点 相对保守，认为2026年碳酸锂基本面定价区间或在8 - 9万元/吨，指出即使2025年有短暂供需短缺，2026年市场或 仍将小幅过剩。 这个逼近15万元/吨关键心理关口的价格，已成为新能源产业链最受关注的"价格锚"，直接影响着从上游锂矿开采 到下游新能源汽车与储能电站的成本与利润分配。 三大引擎驱动价格上涨的核心力量 业内人士分析指出，储能需求爆发、供给端约束以及政策引导下的产业秩序重构是此轮碳酸锂价格上涨的三大核 心驱动力。 储能市场表现极为亮眼。国内储能发展逻辑从行政推动的"强制配储"转向以投资回报率为核心的"经济性驱动"， 内蒙古、甘肃等10多个省份出台容量电价补偿机制，改善了储能项 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Zijin Mining's lithium subsidiary, Kesi, has successfully launched a lithium carbonate production project in Argentina, with an annual capacity of 20,000 tons [1] - The second phase of the project is progressing smoothly, with plans for a lithium carbonate capacity of 40,000 tons per year, which will bring the total annual production capacity to an estimated 60,000 to 80,000 tons once both phases are fully operational [1]

Price Trends - Lithium carbonate (99.5% battery grade/domestic) price increased by 1,080.0 CNY to 85,700.0 CNY/ton, reaching a new high in over a year, with a consecutive increase for 9 days and a total rise of 7,700.0 CNY in the last 5 days and 22,800.0 CNY in the last 30 days [1] - Lithium hydroxide (56.5% battery grade coarse particles/domestic) price rose by 980.0 CNY to 77,800.0 CNY/ton, also hitting a new high in over a year, with an 8-day consecutive increase, totaling 8,050.0 CNY in the last 5 days and 20,370.0 CNY in the last 30 days [1] Supply Chain Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in lithium prices are primarily influenced by domestic supply disruptions, including mandatory production halts at locations like Jiangxiawo and Qinghai salt lake due to compliance issues [3] - Some smelting plants have initiated maintenance and ceased operations, further driving up lithium prices [3] - The suspension of production in the Ningde Jiangxiawo mining area has led to a short-term supply gap, raising concerns about supply tightness during the "golden September and silver October" period, despite current lithium spodumene production lines and processing plant inventories temporarily filling the gap [3]