Riverwater Partners, an investment management company, released its “Small Cap Strategy” Q3 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The Small Cap Core Strategy reported solid results for the quarter but did not keep pace with the sharp rally, thus lagging the benchmark. The market’s preference for lower-quality companies persisted in the quarter and contributed significantly to the benchmark’s outperformance. On the other hand, the strategy remains focused on higher-quality compa ...

Group 1: Investment Activity - Nuance Investments initiated a new equity position in Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited, acquiring approximately 1.2 million shares valued at nearly $44 million as of September 30, 2025 [1][2] - Aspen Insurance now ranks among the top ten holdings of Nuance Investments, representing 4.48% of its reportable assets under management (AUM) [3] - The firm reported a total of 46 holdings with $982.15 million in U.S. equity assets [3] Group 2: Company Overview - Aspen Insurance provides a range of reinsurance and insurance products, including property catastrophe, specialty, casualty, and financial lines [4] - The company operates as a diversified underwriter, generating income by managing risk for clients across global markets [4] - Aspen Insurance is based in Bermuda and has a significant international presence, serving clients in regions such as Australia, Asia, Europe, and North America, with a workforce exceeding 1,100 employees [5] Group 3: Portfolio Adjustments - Nuance Investments made significant changes to its portfolio, including a notable sale of nearly 1 million shares in Estee Lauder Companies, valued at approximately $87.94 million [6][8] - The firm reduced its holdings in three healthcare stocks, decreasing their combined representation from almost 17% to just 7% of its total holdings [9] - Nuance Investments also opened a new position in Kenvue, a company associated with various domestic health brands [9]

Company Overview - Chubb Limited (CB) is based in Zurich, Switzerland, and provides a range of insurance and reinsurance products, with a market cap of $117.2 billion [1][2] - The company offers commercial and personal property, casualty, personal accident, supplemental health insurance, reinsurance, and life insurance to a diverse clientele [1] Market Position - CB is classified as a large-cap stock, emphasizing its size and influence in the insurance - property & casualty industry [2] - The company's financial stability and diverse portfolio contribute to its competitive advantage, supported by a strong brand reputation and a global workforce of 40,000 employees across 54 countries [2] Stock Performance - CB's stock has seen a 2.9% decline from its 52-week high of $306.91, reached on April 3, but has gained 9.5% over the past three months, outperforming the Dow Jones Industrials Average's 4.4% gains [3] - Year-to-date, CB shares have risen 7.8%, and over the past 52 weeks, they have climbed 3.3%, although this is below the Dow's YTD gains of 11.5% and 5.7% over the last year [4] Recent Financial Results - On October 21, CB reported Q3 results, with net premiums written at $14.9 billion, reflecting a 7.5% year-over-year increase [5] - The company's core operating income rose 30.9% from the previous year to $7.49 per share [5] Competitive Landscape - In comparison, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) has underperformed, with a 4.4% loss year-to-date and a 14.5% decline over the past 52 weeks [5] Analyst Sentiment - Wall Street analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating for CB, with a mean price target of $310.09, indicating a potential upside of 4.1% from current levels [6]

Core Insights - AM Best has commented that the Credit Ratings of Palomar Holdings, Inc. and its member companies remain unchanged following the announcement of Palomar's acquisition of The Gray Casualty & Surety Company, expected to close in the first half of 2026 [1][12] Credit Ratings - Palomar has a Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating of "bbb†(Good), while its subsidiaries, PSIC, PESIC, and Palomar Re, have a Financial Strength Rating of A (Excellent) and Long-Term ICRs of "aâ€(Excellent) with a stable outlook [2] - FIA has an FSR of A- (Excellent) and a Long-Term ICR of "a-†(Excellent) with a positive outlook [2] - Gray has an FSR of A- (Excellent) and a Long-Term ICR of "a-†(Excellent), which have been placed under review with positive implications following the acquisition announcement [3] Acquisition Details - Post-acquisition, Gray will operate independently under new management and is expected to benefit from synergies with Palomar [4] - The acquisition will be funded through cash on hand and a bank loan, with expected financial leverage having a neutral impact on the ratings [4] Business Operations - Palomar writes various risks, with earthquake coverage being a significant part of its portfolio, alongside inland marine/other property, casualty, fronting, and crop businesses [5] - The group consistently reports profitable results due to diligent underwriting strategies and is expanding into the surety space, particularly through the acquisition of Gray, which has a larger footprint in the contract surety segment across the U.S. [5]

Core Insights - Everest Group, Ltd. (EG) is valued at a market cap of $15.1 billion and operates as a leading global reinsurance and insurance provider, offering a wide range of products across various regions [1] Financial Performance - EG is expected to announce its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings results on October 29, with analysts predicting an adjusted earnings of $9.13 per share, a decrease of nearly 37.6% from $14.62 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For fiscal 2025, analysts forecast an adjusted EPS of $45.52, representing a 52.6% increase from $29.83 in fiscal 2024 [3] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, EG stock has declined nearly 9.6%, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which rose by 16.3%, and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, which increased by 16.5% [4] - On October 9, EG shares fell by 2.3% after Wells Fargo analyst Elyse Greenspan reaffirmed a "Hold" rating with a price target of $383 [5] - The consensus among analysts is cautiously optimistic, with a "Moderate Buy" rating; among 18 analysts, five recommend "Strong Buy," two "Moderate Buy," nine suggest "Hold," and two have a "Strong Sell" rating [5] - The average analyst price target of $382.88 indicates a premium of 8.8% from current market prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - Kestrel Group Ltd has announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, highlighting its performance and operational status [1]. Company Overview - Kestrel Group Ltd specializes in providing fronting services to insurance program managers, managing general agents (MGAs), reinsurers, and reinsurance brokers [2]. - The company has exclusive management contracts with four insurance carriers, all rated A- "Excellent" by A.M. Best, allowing it to facilitate insurance transactions across all U.S. states [2]. - Kestrel Group does not assume significant underwriting risk and offers a variety of lines of business, including casualty, workers' compensation, and both catastrophe-exposed and non-catastrophe-exposed property [2].

Core Insights - Palomar reported better-than-expected Q2 2025 results, with non-GAAP earnings per share at $1.76, surpassing the $1.67 estimate, and GAAP revenue of $203.3 million, reflecting a 55.1% year-over-year increase [1][2] - The company raised its full-year adjusted net income guidance to $198–208 million for 2025, up from a previous estimate of $186–200 million [13] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS increased by 40.8% year-over-year from $1.25 in Q2 2024 [2] - Net earned premiums rose to $180.0 million, a 47.2% increase from $122.3 million in Q2 2024 [2][5] - The adjusted combined ratio remained stable at 73.1%, while the annualized adjusted return on equity was reported at 23.7% [2][9] Business Segments and Growth - The casualty segment saw significant growth, with gross written premiums increasing by 113% year-over-year, now comprising over a quarter of total gross written premiums [3][5] - Crop insurance gross written premiums surged from $2.2 million to $39.5 million year-over-year, indicating strong expansion [5] - Earthquake insurance, while slower in growth, is expected to see mid- to high-teens growth for FY2025 [8] Diversification Strategy - Palomar is diversifying its offerings beyond earthquake coverage, focusing on product expansion and geographic reach [4][10] - The earthquake segment's contribution to gross written premiums decreased to 29.8% from 35.1% in Q2 2024, reflecting a broader portfolio [6] Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of Advanced AgProtection has expanded the crop business's geographic reach [10] - The company successfully renewed its reinsurance program with an adjusted rate decrease of approximately 10% year-over-year, reducing exposure to large events [11] Technology and Operational Efficiency - Investments in technology and analytics are enhancing underwriting and operational scale, although they incur additional costs [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported second quarter operating earnings of $0.84 per share, supported by solid underwriting performance and a 16% increase in investment income [8][9] - The total combined ratio was 84.5, up from 81.5 last year, reflecting modest increases in the underlying loss and expense ratios [9][10] - Year-to-date book value per share increased by 16% inclusive of dividends [6][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The property segment experienced a 10% decline in gross premiums, influenced by rate decreases in E and S property, while Marine and Hawaii homeowners products continued to deliver growth [10][18] - The casualty insurance segment posted a 7% increase in gross premiums with a combined ratio of 96.5, benefiting from favorable prior year's reserve development [12][19] - Surety's gross premium was up 7% over last year, with all sub-segments experiencing growth [12][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The commercial property market showed significant softening, impacting top line growth which remained flat [6][9] - Competition increased in the E and S property space, with about 20 new entrants over the last two years, leading to rate pressure [30] - The transportation division saw a 12% increase in rates, although competition remains high [21][40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on discipline, continuous improvement, and sustainability, prioritizing profitability and long-term value creation over short-term results [6][7] - The strategy includes being selective in underwriting and adjusting to market conditions, particularly in property where the risk-reward profile is unfavorable [7][16] - The company emphasizes a strong community and collaboration among teams to support customers and enhance service delivery [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating challenges and highlighted attractive opportunities across most of the portfolio despite market headwinds [7][24] - The company remains cautious about loss trends and continues to be selective in underwriting, particularly in the auto coverage space [22][68] - Management noted that recent tort reforms in certain states could positively impact underwriting confidence and business opportunities [56] Other Important Information - The company reported a positive total return of 2.9% for the quarter, benefiting from market recovery in May and June [14] - Operating cash flow for Q2 totaled $175 million, up $33 million from last year, providing a solid foundation for continued portfolio activity [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insight on acquisition costs in property and casualty? - Management noted pressure on commission costs in property and surety, with investments in technology and customer relationship management contributing to higher expenses [26][28] Question: Where is the pricing pressure coming from in casualty? - Management indicated increased competition in the E and S property space, with many new entrants affecting rates, while casualty rates remain stable due to tailored coverage [30][31] Question: What is the outlook for the construction market? - Management reported a healthy construction industry with double-digit increases in submissions, indicating positive trends in both surety and casualty segments [65] Question: How is the company addressing loss cost trends in transportation? - Management acknowledged significant double-digit inflation in commercial vehicles and emphasized the importance of rate increases and risk selection to maintain profitability [40][41] Question: Are there any early benefits from tort reform? - Management indicated that while it is early to assess the full impact, there are signs of increased confidence in underwriting in states with recent tort reforms [56]

Financial Performance - White Mountains grew Adjusted Book Value Per Share (ABVPS) by 8% in 2024, reaching $1,834, but fell short of its target of 11%[11] - The company's total capital stood at $58 billion as of 1Q25, with $05 billion in undeployed capital, representing 9% of total capital[17] - The investment portfolio totaled $48 billion as of 1Q25, comprising $23 billion in policyholder funds and $25 billion in shareholder funds[74] Key Operating Businesses - Ark/WM Outrigger achieved a combined ratio of 83% in 2024 and grew Tangible Book Value by 28%[27] - Kudu has deployed over $1 billion of gross capital into 28 managers, with a goal of $150 million in annual deployments[41] - Bamboo MGA's Adjusted EBITDA reached $53 million in 2024, more than 7 times the previous year, and managed premiums grew to $484 million, more than double year-over-year[56] HG Global/BAM - HG Global experienced a 6% growth in Adjusted Book Value in 2024[50] - BAM's total premiums were $136 million, up 4% year-over-year, while par insured reached $20 billion, a 26% increase[50] MediaAlpha - MediaAlpha's transaction value reached $15 billion in 2024, up 25 times year-over-year, with Adjusted EBITDA of $96 million, a 35 times increase[63]

Group 1 - Kestrel Group LLC and Maiden Holdings, Ltd. have successfully closed their combination, forming Kestrel Group Ltd, which will begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "KG" on May 28, 2025 [1][3] - The new entity aims to create a values-driven insurance organization focused on innovation, client service, and long-term relationships, utilizing A.M. Best A- rated insurance carriers [2][4] - The combination is expected to position Kestrel Group to capitalize on favorable market opportunities and accelerate its growth plan to become a leading specialty program group nationwide [3] Group 2 - Kestrel Group specializes in providing fronting services to insurance program managers, MGAs, reinsurers, and reinsurance brokers, facilitating transactions through exclusive management contracts with four A- rated insurance carriers [4] - The company does not assume significant underwriting risk and produces various lines of business, including casualty, workers' compensation, and property insurance [4]