Comparing the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) to the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) is a popular way to measure the strength of the consumer. The XLY is a consumer discretionary exchange-traded fund (ETF). Its two biggest holdings by far are Amazon.com (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA), followed by Home Depot (HD) and Booking Holdings (BKNG), which provides online reservations for travel and restaurants. These companies will thrive only if consumers have enough to spend after thei ...

Economic Outlook - U.S. consumer sentiment reached a five-month high in July, with the Consumer Sentiment Index increasing to 61.8 from 60.7 in June, indicating growing optimism about the economy [3] - Rising consumer sentiment is expected to positively influence household spending, particularly benefiting the consumer discretionary sector [1][3] Inflation Expectations - A significant factor contributing to improved consumer sentiment is the decline in inflation expectations, with consumers now anticipating a 4.4% price increase over the next year, down from 5% in June, marking the lowest short-term inflation outlook since February [4] - Long-term inflation expectations also decreased to 3.6%, the lowest in five months [4] Consumer Caution - Despite the positive sentiment, consumers remain cautious regarding business conditions, labor markets, and personal income prospects compared to the previous year [5] - The recent increase in sentiment suggests that consumers believe the risk of worst-case scenarios has diminished [5] Investment Opportunities in ETFs - Investors can capitalize on the positive consumer sentiment trend through consumer discretionary ETFs, including: - **Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY)**: Holds 51 securities with significant allocations in hotels, restaurants, leisure, and retail, boasting an AUM of $22.3 billion and an expense ratio of 0.08% [2][5] - **Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR)**: Comprises 296 stocks, primarily in broadline retail and automobiles, with an asset base of $6 billion and low fees of 9 bps [2][6] - **Invesco Dorsey Wright Consumer Cyclicals Momentum ETF (PEZ)**: Focuses on 37 stocks showing momentum, with an asset base of $30.6 million and annual fees of 60 bps [2][7] - **VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH)**: Tracks the performance of 26 large retail firms, with an asset base of $244.1 million and annual fees of 35 bps [2][8]

Core Insights - Amazon has launched its longest-ever Prime Day event, expanding from 48 to 96 hours, running from July 8 to 11, with expectations of significant online spending [1][2] - U.S. online sales during this event are projected to reach a record $23.8 billion, marking a 28.4% year-over-year increase [2] - The event's spending is anticipated to be equivalent to the combined online spending of two Black Fridays [2] E-commerce Trends - Amazon is offering millions of discounts across various product categories, with daily deal drops to encourage frequent consumer engagement [4] - Mobile shopping is expected to account for $12.5 billion, or 52.5% of total sales, highlighting the importance of mobile channels for impulse purchases [5] - Discounts across categories are expected to match last year's levels, with apparel at 24%, electronics at 22%, and other categories following [6] Technological Innovations - The use of generative AI-powered shopping assistants and chatbots is expected to increase, with traffic from AI sources projected to surge by 3,200% compared to last year [7] - The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) option is forecasted to rise to 8% of overall online sales during the event, up from 7.6% in 2024 [8] Investment Opportunities - Investors can consider ETFs with significant allocations to Amazon, including ProShares Online Retail ETF (24.5% allocation), Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (24.2%), and others [3][9][10][11][12][13] - ProShares Online Retail ETF has an asset base of $78.3 million, while Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF has $1.8 billion [9][10] - Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF holds a 22.8% allocation to Amazon and has an asset base of $6.1 billion [11]

Core Insights - Amazon reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter 2025 results, surpassing earnings and revenue estimates but provided a cautious second-quarter operating income guidance due to tariff uncertainties [1][3][6] Financial Performance - Earnings per share reached $1.59, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.35 and up from 98 cents a year ago [3] - Revenues grew 10% year over year to $155.7 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $154.56 billion [3] - Amazon's advertising business was the fastest-growing division, with ad revenues increasing 19% year over year to $13.9 billion [4] - Online store sales grew 6% to $57.41 billion, while Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenues soared 17% year over year to $29.3 billion [4] Future Outlook - For the second quarter of 2025, Amazon expects revenues in the range of $159-$164 billion, with a consensus estimate of $160.46 billion [6] - Operating income is projected to be between $13 billion and $17.5 billion, with a cautious outlook due to uncertain consumer demand influenced by tariff policies [6] Investment Focus - Several ETFs with significant allocations to Amazon include: - ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) with 23.9% allocation to Amazon and $66.3 million in assets [7] - Fidelity MSCI Consumer Discretionary Index ETF (FDIS) with 22.2% allocation and $1.7 billion in assets [8] - Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR) with 22% allocation and $5.3 billion in assets [9] - Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) with 21.9% allocation and nearly $19.5 billion in assets [11] - VanEck Vectors Retail ETF (RTH) with 18.1% allocation and $235.9 million in assets [12]