Core Insights - Copper futures are expected to potentially reach $5 per pound by the end of 2025, supported by strong supply-demand fundamentals [1] - As of September 16, 2025, COMEX copper futures were just below $4.70 per pound, with LME forwards trading at $10,126.50 per metric ton [2] - A long-term bullish trend in copper prices has been established, with significant price movements observed in 2025 [3][4] Price Trends - COMEX copper futures reached a record high of $5.9585 per pound in July 2025, maintaining a bullish trend despite volatility [4] - LME forwards also reached a record high in October 2025, indicating a strong upward trend in copper prices [5][6] Inventory Dynamics - Tariffs have caused a significant shift in copper inventories, with LME stocks dropping nearly 50% to 135,725 tons by November 14, 2025, while COMEX inventories surged by 309.3% to 381,296 metric tons [7] - The overall combined stocks increased by over 150,000 tons from the end of 2024 to November 14, 2025, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the importance of two volatility metrics, skew ratio and convexity, in understanding market sentiment and uncertainty [4][6][13] - It emphasizes that while skew ratio indicates potential market direction, convexity is crucial for assessing the cost of risk in out-of-the-money options [3][5][13] Group 1: Euro Futures Market - In early March 2025, the Euro futures market experienced a rally, with the skew ratio increasing from 0.90 to 1.05, indicating a bullish sentiment [5] - The rise in convexity during this period reflected increased uncertainty due to the introduction of tariffs [5] - By April 2025, convexity rose again, suggesting that the market was anticipating an imminent move, supported by the skew ratio indicating a likely upside trend [5] Group 2: Wheat Prices and Geopolitical Conflicts - Wheat prices surged from approximately $7.50 to over $9 per bushel amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict in October 2022 [8] - The increase in the skew ratio during this period reflected a bullish sentiment among traders [8] - However, the concurrent rise in convexity indicated growing uncertainty about the market's direction, with traders seeking protection against potential price movements [8] Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - In April 2025, discussions around proposed copper tariffs led to increased market protection seeking, reflected in a rising skew ratio for front-month copper futures [11] - The simultaneous increase in convexity suggested conflicting sentiments in the market, as participants anticipated potential price increases while also hedging against uncertainty [11]

Copper volatility in the futures market was extreme in 2025, with the price reaching new record highs in March and July and a pair of implosive moves to lows in April and late July. U.S. tariffs have only exacerbated the price variance of copper. In a July 31, 2025, Barchart article, I highlighted the divergence between COMEX copper futures and LME copper forwards. I concluded with the following: More News from Barchart If the price action over the past decade and a half is a clue, copper futures should ...