Core Viewpoint - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (NYSE:RCL) stock is experiencing a pullback to a potential support level while maintaining a long-term uptrend, with significant historical price points influencing current trading behavior [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - RCL is outperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in 2025 with a 24% lead, despite a disappointing fiscal fourth-quarter profit outlook that led to several earnings revisions lower [2] - The stock has seen a post-earnings pullback from the call-heavy 320-strike to the 270-strike, where puts are now dominating [2] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The stock is near its January closing high at $274, which aligns with major peaks from 2018 and 2020, and is also supported by a rising 12-month moving average that has provided buying opportunities since 2023 [1] - Implied volatility (IV) on January options matches the 63-day historical volatility (HV), indicating stability in market expectations [3] Group 3: Short Selling and Options - It would take short sellers more than five sessions to cover their bearish bets, potentially providing a floor for RCL as it approaches long-term support [3] - A recommended January 16, 2026 call option has a leverage ratio of 6.30, suggesting that a 16% rise in the underlying equity would double the option's value [3]

Core Insights - Hyatt Hotels Corporation reported third-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings and revenues missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while the top line grew year-over-year and the bottom line declined [1][4]. Financial Performance - Adjusted loss per share was 30 cents, missing the consensus estimate of 49 cents, compared to an adjusted earnings per share of 94 cents in the same quarter last year [4][10]. - Revenues reached $1.78 billion, missing the consensus mark of $1.83 billion, but increased by 9.6% year-over-year [4][10]. - Owned and Leased revenues were $429 million, up from $287 million in the prior-year quarter, while Distribution revenues declined by 13.1% year-over-year to $192 million [5]. Revenue Breakdown - Gross fees increased by 5.9% year-over-year to $283 million, with base management fees rising by 10%, incentive management fees up by 2%, and franchise and other fees advancing by 4% [6]. - Net fees for the quarter were $249 million, compared to $241 million in the prior-year quarter [7]. Operating Highlights - Adjusted EBITDA was $291 million, up 5.6% year-over-year, and increased by 10.1% after adjusting for assets sold in 2024 [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA in the Management and Franchising segment was $226 million, compared to $221 million in the prior-year quarter [9]. Balance Sheet - As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $749 million, down from $912 million in the previous quarter, with total liquidity at $2.2 billion [11]. - Total debt remained flat at $6 billion [11]. Business Updates - In Q3, 5,163 rooms were added to Hyatt's system, with a pipeline of approximately 141,000 rooms, reflecting a 4.4% year-over-year increase [12]. - The company anticipates net rooms growth of 6.3% to 7% year-over-year, excluding Playa [13]. 2025 Outlook - Expected adjusted general and administrative expenses for 2025 are between $446 million and $452 million, with capital expenditures anticipated at about $225 million [13]. - System-wide RevPAR is projected to rise by 2-2.5% from the 2024 level, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be in the range of $1.09-$1.11 billion [14].

Core Viewpoint - Carnival has made a significant recovery post-pandemic, showing strong demand and record operating profits, but recent stock price declines raise questions about future performance [1][2]. Company Overview - Carnival is the largest cruise operator globally, with a fleet of 90 ships across various brands, including Princess and Holland [2]. - The company is experiencing demand that exceeds its current capacity, prompting orders for additional ships to accommodate travelers [2]. Demand Generation - Carnival is actively enhancing demand through new features and exclusive destinations, such as the recently opened Celebration Key in the Caribbean [3]. - Management anticipates high visitor traffic at Celebration Key, with two ships in port 85% of the time [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company is strategically relocating ships to high-demand areas and has plans to increase capacity for the 2027 and 2028 sailing seasons [4]. - New booking options have been introduced in South Florida and Texas, along with new home ports in Norfolk, Virginia, and Baltimore, Maryland [4]. Financial Performance - Carnival reported its highest-ever quarterly adjusted net income of $2 billion for the fiscal third quarter ending August 31, exceeding guidance across all metrics [6]. - The company has raised its full-year guidance multiple times this year, indicating strong financial momentum [6]. Stock Market Reaction - Despite strong earnings, Carnival's stock fell 7% following the report, attributed to concerns over its remaining $26.5 billion debt and a modest 4% year-over-year revenue increase [7][8]. - The market reaction may also be linked to rising crude oil prices and plans to convert some debt into stock, which could dilute existing shares [8]. Analyst Sentiment - Wall Street analysts are optimistic, with 73% recommending Carnival as a buy, projecting an average price target increase of 27% over the next 12 to 18 months [9]. - Analysts suggest that long-term investors may find this a favorable buying opportunity despite potential short-term volatility [10][11].

Market Overview - The market has increased by only 3% so far this year, recovering from earlier declines, indicating a potentially favorable buying opportunity for investors [1] Realty Income - Realty Income is a major real estate investment trust (REIT) that pays monthly dividends and has a strong history of increasing payouts, having distributed dividends for 660 consecutive months [3][5] - The REIT owns 15,600 properties, with 80% leased to retailers, including essential businesses like Walmart and Lowe's, providing stability even in tough economic conditions [4] - The current dividend yield is 5.5%, and despite a year-to-date increase, the stock price has declined over the past three years due to higher interest rates, making it an attractive buy [5] MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre operates in 18 Latin American countries and has reported significant growth, with a 40% increase in gross merchandise volume year-over-year on a currency-neutral basis [6][7] - The company has seen a 25% increase in unique active buyers and a 72% increase in total payments volume year-over-year, indicating strong demand for its services [9] - Total company sales rose by 64% in the first quarter, with an operating income of $763 million at a 12.9% margin, showcasing its profitability [9][10] Dutch Bros - Dutch Bros has rapidly expanded its coffee shop chain, recently opening its 1,000th store and aiming to double its footprint in the next five years [11] - Same-store sales increased by 4.7% year-over-year, contributing to a 29% revenue growth, with net income rising by 39% in the first quarter [12] - The stock is currently trading at a high valuation of 88 times next year's expected earnings, reflecting strong growth potential [13] Carnival - Carnival is recovering from pandemic-related challenges, with a 7.4% year-over-year revenue increase to $5.8 billion in its fiscal 2025 first quarter [16] - The company is experiencing record-high demand for cruises, with bookings for fiscal 2026 at unprecedented levels and strong revenue from preboarding sales [16][17] - Carnival's stock is trading at a low price-to-sales ratio of 1.2, and as the company continues to pay down its debt, the stock is expected to rise [18] On Holding - On Holding is gaining traction in the activewear and athletic footwear market, with a 43% year-over-year sales increase in the first quarter [19][20] - The company has a gross margin of 59.9%, indicating strong profitability, and is expanding into new markets [20] - Despite current market concerns, On Holding's long-term outlook remains strong, making it a favorable investment opportunity [22]