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4月总体通胀大多下降,惊喜参半:总体通胀大多下降;下行惊喜多于上行惊喜,但以色列出现大幅上行惊喜
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-28 04:55
Group 1: Inflation Trends in CEEMEA - Headline inflation in the CEE-3 countries showed significant declines: Poland decreased by 0.6pp to 4.3%yoy, Hungary down by 0.5pp to 4.2%yoy, and Czechia down by 0.9pp to 1.8%yoy[1][2] - In contrast, Israel experienced a notable increase in inflation from 3.3%yoy to 3.6%yoy, primarily due to a one-time 16% hike in airline fees[1] - Mixed inflation trends were observed in other regions, with Russia's inflation slightly down to 10.2%yoy, Turkey at 37.9%yoy, and South Africa up to 2.8%yoy[2] Group 2: Core Inflation Insights - Core inflation fell sharply in Czechia and Poland to 3.3%yoy and 3.6%yoy respectively, while it rose significantly in Ukraine to 11.5%yoy[3] - Core inflation remained stable in Hungary (5.2%yoy), Israel (3.1%yoy), Romania (4.7%yoy), Russia (9.4%yoy), South Africa (3.5%yoy), and Turkey (33.3%yoy)[3] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Forecasts - The CEEMEA outlook suggests a dovish stance due to ongoing disinflationary processes, with core inflation dynamics weakening across most countries except Russia, Ukraine, and Israel[4] - Average annual inflation forecasts for 2025 indicate lower expectations across several countries, with Czechia at 1.9%yoy, Hungary at 4.4%yoy, and Poland at 3.8%yoy, all below consensus[8][19][29]