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全球科技业绩快报:Celestica3Q25
Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating of "Outperform" for the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark by more than 10% [27]. Core Insights - The company has revised its financial guidance for Q4 2025, expecting revenue between $3.325 billion and $3.575 billion, which corresponds to a growth rate of 36%. Adjusted EPS is forecasted to be between $1.65 and $1.81, with a non-GAAP operating margin midpoint of 7.6% [4][15]. - For the full year 2025, revenue has been adjusted upward to $12.2 billion from a previous estimate of $11.55 billion, with adjusted EPS increased to $5.90 [4][15]. - The company anticipates a revenue of $16 billion in 2026, representing a growth rate of 31%, with an expected non-GAAP operating margin expansion to 7.8% [4][15]. - The AI infrastructure business is experiencing strong growth, particularly in custom ASIC solutions for AI/ML computing, which is projected to grow approximately sixfold [5][15]. - The company has secured significant projects, including a custom AI system for a digital-native customer, with mass production expected to start in 2027 [5][15]. Financial Guidance and Performance Outlook - Q4 2025 revenue is expected to be between $3.325 billion and $3.575 billion, with a midpoint growth rate of 36% [4][15]. - Full-year 2025 revenue is revised to $12.2 billion, with adjusted EPS increased to $5.90 [4][15]. - 2026 revenue is projected at $16 billion, with a 31% growth rate and an adjusted EPS of $8.20 [4][15]. Profitability Performance and Drivers - The non-GAAP operating margin for Q3 2025 is reported at 7.6%, marking an 80-basis-point improvement quarter-over-quarter [4][15]. - The ATS segment's margin is at 5.5%, while the CCS segment's margin is at 8.3%, driven by high-performance solutions [4][15]. - The company aims to maintain margins while pursuing growth through sustainable margin management strategies [4][15]. AI Strategy and Business Progress - The AI infrastructure business is growing robustly, with a focus on custom ASIC solutions for AI/ML computing [5][15]. - Large data center customers are increasingly adopting custom ASIC platforms due to their cost-effectiveness compared to general-purpose GPUs [5][15]. - The company has secured a key project for a custom AI system, with production expected to begin in 2027 [5][15]. Cloud Strategy and Market Positioning - Cloud adoption is driving significant long-term investment in data center infrastructure, with annual capital expenditures expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2028 [5][15]. - The company is expanding manufacturing capacity in Thailand and Texas to meet the growing demand from cloud customers [5][15]. - Strong visibility of customer demand is noted, with stable forecasts extending 12 to 15 months [5][15]. Orders and Customer Demand - The company has secured follow-on project orders extending into 2027, with some finalized before current chip specifications were confirmed [5][15]. - In the 1.6T switch sector, the company has won 10 project orders covering multiple clients [5][15]. - The inventory balance as of Q3 was $2.05 billion, with an inventory turnover of 65 days, showing improvements [5][15]. Market Competition and Share - The company holds a cumulative market share of 41% in the 200G, 400G, and 800G data center Ethernet switch port market, significantly outperforming competitors [9][20]. - The market share in AI network platform custom solutions has grown to 55% of total spending [9][20]. - The company is developing next-generation switches, including innovations in liquid cooling technology [9][20].