Key Takeaways Super Micro Computer aims for $33B revenues in FY26, a 50% jump from the prior fiscal.DCBBS solutions and GPU partnerships are central to driving hyperscale and enterprise demand.Expansion across Europe, Asia and the Middle East supports SMCI's ambitious growth outlook.Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) has set an ambitious target of generating revenues of at least $33 billion in fiscal 2026. This outlook represents whopping 50% year-over-year growth. In fiscal 2025, the company’s revenues soar ...

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI ) is aiming to revamp its growth trajectory with the release of Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS), an integrated technology stack designed to accelerate the implementation of AI infrastructure for enterprises and cloud servicesMonte Independent Investment Research: Michael Del Monte is a buy-side equity analyst with over 5 years of industry experience. Prior to working in the investment management industry, Michael spent over a decade in professional services wo ...

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has faced significant challenges with revenue forecasting and gross margins, leading to a volatile stock performance, with shares down approximately 25% over the past year but up nearly 50% year to date [1] Revenue Performance - For fiscal Q4, Supermicro's revenue increased by 7% year over year to $5.76 billion, missing the analyst consensus of $5.89 billion and falling within the low end of its guidance range of $5.6 billion to $6.4 billion [5] - The company has consistently lowered its revenue guidance throughout the fiscal year, starting with a reduction in November for fiscal Q1 revenue from $6 billion to $7 billion to a range of $5.9 billion to $6 billion [2][5] Gross Margin Issues - Supermicro's gross margins have been under pressure, dropping from 17% a year earlier to 11.3% in June 2024, and further declining to 9.5% in fiscal Q4 compared to 10.2% a year ago [6][7] - The decline in gross margins is attributed to price reductions to secure new design wins and increased competition in the GPU platform transition [6][7] Profitability Challenges - The company's adjusted EPS fell by 24% to $0.41, missing the analyst consensus of $0.44, indicating that lower gross margins are adversely affecting profitability [10] - Fiscal Q1 revenue guidance is projected between $6 billion and $7 billion, but adjusted EPS guidance of $0.40 to $0.52 is below the analyst estimate of $0.59 [10] Future Outlook - For fiscal 2026, Supermicro projects revenue growth to at least $33 billion, representing a 50% increase, driven by expanding its enterprise customer base and new product innovations [11] - The company aims to improve gross margins by focusing on higher-margin markets and complete data center solutions, with a long-term goal of reaching 15% to 16% [9] Valuation Considerations - The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just over 16 times based on fiscal-year 2026 estimates, which appears reasonable given the revenue growth guidance [13] - However, the business model is characterized as low-margin and may struggle with GPU product transition cycles, making it less favorable compared to other AI infrastructure companies [12][13]

Financial Performance - Revenue for Fiscal Q4 2025 reached $5757 million, a 25% increase QoQ and an 8% increase YoY[28] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Fiscal Q4 2025 was 96%, a decrease of 10 bps QoQ and 70 bps YoY[28] - Non-GAAP earnings per share for Fiscal Q4 2025 were $041, up $010 QoQ but down $013 YoY[28] - Cash flow from operations was $864 million, up $237 million QoQ but down $1511 million YoY[28] Revenue Mix - Server and Storage Systems revenue was $5618 million, up 26% QoQ and 10% YoY[28] - Subsystems & Accessories revenue was $139 million, down 1% QoQ and 48% YoY[28] Future Outlook - The company projects revenue between $60 billion and $70 billion for FQ1 2026[30] - The company anticipates GAAP diluted net EPS between $030 and $042 and non-GAAP diluted net EPS between $040 and $052 for FQ1 2026[30] - The company expects at least $33 billion in revenue for FY26[30] Strategic Initiatives - The company is targeting ~30%+ of global new data center deployments to use DLC solutions in the next 12 months[10]

Group 1 - Digi Power X has filed a provisional utility patent for its ARMS 200 modular data center platform, naming Super Micro Computer as the exclusive server supplier with an order expected in Q4 2025 [3][6] - Digi Power X aims to retrofit underutilized energy assets in remote areas to power new AI data centers, positioning itself as a neocloud provider similar to CoreWeave or Nebius [4] - The flagship project for Digi Power X and Supermicro will be located in Columbiana, Alabama, with a launch date set for Q1 2026 [5] Group 2 - Super Micro Computer's shares rose by 10.2% following the announcement of its partnership with Digi Power X [1] - The selection of Supermicro as the exclusive server provider indicates the company may possess advanced technology, particularly with the new Nvidia Blackwell systems [6] - Supermicro has been promoting its own modular "Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS)" technology, which aligns with Digi Power X's modular approach [7]

Core Insights - Super Micro Computer's (SMCI) server and storage system revenues grew 19% year over year in Q3 FY25, surpassing $4.5 billion, driven by demand from hyperscalers and AI clients [1][11] - The company's direct liquid cooling products for data centers are a significant contributor, with production exceeding 2000 DLC racks per month [2] - Recent product launches, including Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) and petascale storage systems, are expected to enhance future growth [3] Revenue and Growth - The server and storage system segment accounted for 97% of SMCI's total revenue, indicating a strong reliance on this area for overall performance [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SMCI's fiscal 2025 revenues is projected at $22.12 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 48% [5] Competitive Landscape - The global storage and server market features competitors like Pure Storage and Hewlett Packard Enterprise, with Pure Storage focusing on modern storage solutions and HPE experiencing a 6% year-over-year growth in server sales due to AI demand [6][7] - The enterprise server market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 8.03% from 2025 to 2030, reaching $139.81 billion, presenting significant opportunities for SMCI and its competitors [8] Manufacturing and Expansion - SMCI is expanding its global manufacturing capabilities in Malaysia, Taiwan, and Europe to enhance deployment and navigate geopolitical and tariff challenges [4][11] Valuation and Performance - SMCI shares have increased by 43.3% year to date, contrasting with a 3.2% decline in the Zacks Computer-Storage Devices industry [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.87X, significantly lower than the industry average of 1.61X, indicating potential undervaluation [12]