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How Tempus AI Is Building Scale While Near-Term Risks Persist
ZACKS· 2025-12-30 13:35
Core Insights - Investor confidence in Tempus AI (TEM) is currently affected by near-term factors, despite the company's strong long-term strategic positioning [2] - The company's Data and Services segment shows growth through multi-quarter bookings, with significant additions in the third quarter and large contract wins [2] - Uncertainty regarding the timing of revenue conversion from these bookings is impacting market sentiment [2][3] Company Performance - Management indicates that bookings convert into revenues over multi-year periods, which does not lead to immediate top-line growth [3] - Data revenues are typically recognized in the second half of the year due to customer budgeting cycles, resulting in potential quarterly revenue variability [3] - Backlog growth enhances long-term visibility, but may lead to continued revenue and margin variability in the near term [3] Competitive Landscape - Tempus plans a gradual increase in MRD as reimbursement dynamics improve, but faces intense competition from high-sensitivity assays expected to enter the market [4] - The Paige acquisition is anticipated to increase losses by a mid-single-digit million amount per quarter, alongside ongoing investments in AI compute infrastructure [4] Peer Analysis - GE HealthCare's radiopharmaceuticals business presents strong growth potential but carries substantial execution risks, particularly with the integration of Nihon Medi-Physics [5] - Exact Sciences' financial results are highly dependent on the performance of its Cologuard test, with significant revenue generation reliant on the success of its Screening and Precision Oncology tests [6] Stock Performance - Over the past year, Tempus' shares have increased by 81.4%, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 1.3% and the S&P 500's 19.5% increase [7] Valuation Metrics - Tempus currently trades at a forward 12-month Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 7.02X, compared to the industry average of 5.77X, indicating an expensive valuation [9] Earnings Estimates - In the past 30 days, the loss per share estimate for Tempus AI for 2025 has narrowed by 1 cent to 64 cents [10]
TEM's Q3 Earnings & Revenues Beat, Stock Down in After-Market Hours
ZACKS· 2025-11-05 17:06
Core Insights - Tempus AI, Inc. reported a narrower adjusted loss of 11 cents per share for Q3 2025, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 31.3% [1] - The company experienced a significant revenue increase of 84.7% year-over-year, totaling $334.2 million, which also exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.4% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Genomics revenues reached $252.9 million, marking a 117.2% increase year-over-year, with oncology testing contributing $139.5 million (up 31.7%) and hereditary testing contributing $102.6 million (up 32.8%) [3] - The Data and Services product line generated $81.3 million in sales, reflecting a 26.1% year-over-year growth, driven by a 37.6% increase in data licensing [4] Margin Performance - Gross profit for Q3 was $209.9 million, up 98.4% from the previous year, with an adjusted gross margin of 62.8%, an increase of 432 basis points [5] - Total adjusted operating expenses rose to $232.8 million, an 80.8% increase year-over-year, resulting in an operating loss of $22.9 million, unchanged from the previous year [5] Liquidity Position - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $655.9 million, a significant increase from $186.3 million at the end of Q2 [6] - Cumulative net cash used in investing activities was $387.6 million, compared to $122.4 million a year ago [6] Full-Year Outlook - Tempus raised its 2025 revenue guidance to approximately $1.265 billion, indicating nearly 80% annual growth, slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.26 billion [7] - Adjusted EBITDA for the year is now expected to be $20 million, up from the previous estimate of $5 million [9] Strategic Developments - The company achieved several milestones in Q3, including the acquisition of Paige, an AI company in digital pathology, and obtaining FDA clearance for multiple diagnostic devices [10] - Despite the operating loss, the raised revenue guidance is seen as a positive indicator for the stock [10]
What's Fueling Tempus AI's Q2 Net Loss Improvement Momentum?
ZACKS· 2025-09-04 17:31
Financial Performance - Tempus AI reported a net loss of $42.8 million in Q2 2025, significantly improved from a net loss of $552.2 million in the same quarter last year [1][8] - Total revenues increased by 89.6% year over year to $314.6 million, driven by a 115% surge in genomics revenues to $241.8 million and a 35.7% increase in Data and Services revenues to $73 million [2][8] - Gross profit rose sharply to $195 million, reflecting a 160% year-over-year increase, attributed to improved cost management and a focus on higher-margin products [3][8] Operational Efficiency - Adjusted EBITDA improved from a negative $16 million in Q1 2025 to a negative $5.6 million in Q2 2025, indicating stronger cost discipline and operational leverage [3] - The company ended the quarter with $293 million in cash and marketable securities, an increase of approximately $70 million from the previous quarter [4] Market Position - Tempus AI's stock has outperformed the industry, with a 41.3% increase over the past year compared to the industry's 17% growth and the S&P 500's 17.4% improvement [7] - The company's current forward Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio stands at 9.28X, higher than the industry average of 5.83X, indicating a potentially expensive valuation [9] Peer Comparisons - Guardant Health reported a net loss of $99.9 million for Q2 2025, an improvement driven by 31% year-over-year top-line growth and significant gross margin expansion [5] - Exact Sciences reported a net loss of $1.19 million, an improvement of $14.6 million from the previous year, supported by a 16% growth in total revenue and a quarterly gross profit increase of 15.2% [6]
Tempus AI Stock Jumps Post Q2 as EBITDA Breakeven Nears: Buy or Hold?
ZACKS· 2025-08-13 20:02
Core Insights - Tempus AI's stock has increased nearly 13% since the release of its second-quarter 2025 earnings, driven by strong revenue growth and strategic positioning in a high-value market [1] - The company reported an 89.6% year-over-year revenue increase, primarily due to a significant rise in Genomics revenues and growth in its Data and Services segment [1][6] - Gross profit more than doubled, and adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed, indicating a clear path to profitability [2][6] Financial Performance - Revenues rose 89.6% year over year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.12%, with Genomics revenues surging by 115% and Data and Services increasing by 35.7% [6][9] - Adjusted operating expenses decreased by 57.8%, leading to a reduction in adjusted EBITDA losses to $5.6 million from $31.2 million a year ago [7][9] - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance and strengthened liquidity through a $750 million convertible note offering [2][8] Market Position - In August, Tempus AI's shares surged 17.3%, outperforming the Medical Info Systems industry, which declined by 3% [3] - The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating upward momentum and price stability [10] - Despite strong performance, the stock is currently overvalued compared to its industry, with a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.98, higher than the industry average of 5.57 [12] Future Outlook - Tempus AI is positioned to achieve sustainable profitability soon, supported by high-margin revenue growth and disciplined cost control [8][13] - Management has reaffirmed its $5 million adjusted EBITDA target for 2025, representing a $110 million improvement over 2024 [7] - The company's ability to maintain growth momentum and control costs will be crucial for its path to sustained profitability [13]
TEM's Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Stock Up in Pre-Market
ZACKS· 2025-08-08 13:51
Core Insights - Tempus AI, Inc. reported a narrower adjusted loss of 22 cents per share for Q2 2025, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.35% [1][8] - Revenues reached $314.6 million, exceeding expectations by 5.12% and showing an 89.6% year-over-year increase [2][8] Revenue Breakdown - Genomics segment generated $193.8 million in revenues, a 115.3% increase year-over-year, with oncology testing contributing $133.2 million (up 32.9%) and hereditary testing $97.3 million (up 33.6%) [3][8] - Data and Services product line reported $72.8 million in sales, reflecting a 35.7% year-over-year growth, driven by a 40.7% increase in data licensing [4] Margin Performance - Gross profit for the quarter was $195 million, up 158.3% from the previous year, with an adjusted gross margin of 62%, expanding by 1649 basis points despite a 32.2% rise in costs [5] Liquidity Position - At the end of Q2 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $186.3 million, an increase from $151.6 million at the end of Q1 [6] - Cumulative net cash used in operating activities was $61.46 million, significantly reduced from an outflow of $198.5 million in the prior year [6] Full-Year Outlook - Updated guidance for 2025 projects revenues of approximately $1.26 billion, indicating nearly 82% annual growth, with adjusted EBITDA expected to improve by approximately $110 million over 2024 [7] Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, shares of Tempus AI rose by 2.2% in pre-market trading, reflecting positive market sentiment [2][9]
Tempus Ai,Inc.(TEM) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-08 13:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 89.6% to $314.6 million, with Genomics revenue rising 115% to $241.8 million driven by volume growth in oncology [4][5] - Quarterly gross profit reached $195 million, reflecting a 160% increase, while adjusted EBITDA improved from negative $16 million to negative $5.6 million [5][6] - Full year 2025 revenue guidance was raised to $1.26 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA forecast of approximately $5 million, indicating a $110 million improvement over the previous year [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Genomics revenue growth was primarily attributed to oncology volume growth, which increased from 20% to 26% [4] - Data and Services revenue grew by 35.7% to approximately $73 million, led by a 41% increase in data licensing from Incyte [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Significant sequential volume growth was observed across the entire oncology testing compendium, with hereditary volumes also exceeding expectations [12][14] - The company is capturing market share from historical players who have reduced their presence in the market, indicating strong tailwinds in the overall space [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining growth while approaching adjusted EBITDA breakeven, with plans to continue investing in growth opportunities [6][43] - There is a strong emphasis on AI and data integration into diagnostics, with expectations that this will transform R&D portfolios and patient care [49][52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of growth, highlighting the importance of long-term strategies over short-term gains [97] - The company anticipates that reimbursement for MRD (Minimal Residual Disease) testing will occur in 2026, which is expected to significantly boost volumes [58][90] Other Important Information - The company issued $750 million of 0.75% convertible notes to reduce interest expenses and improve cash flow [6] - The data business is expected to grow at around 30% for the year, with Q4 typically being the largest revenue quarter [62] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the strong core genomic volumes in the quarter? - Management noted significant sequential volume growth across oncology testing, driven by sales force efficiencies and technology improvements [12][13] Question: How should we think about the cadence of ASP as you migrate volumes to CDx? - ASPs are expected to see incremental gains as the company approaches its target of migrating 40% of XT volume to CDx by year-end [22] Question: Can you discuss bookings trends for Insights and Trials? - Bookings were strong due to the AstraZeneca Pathos deal, with total contract value up materially [30] Question: What is the pipeline for future partnerships with pharma? - The pipeline remains robust, with no significant pressure from competitors, and the company expects to close large deals in the future [39] Question: How do you balance investments among various parts of the business? - The company aims to maintain discipline in investments while focusing on long-term growth and adjusted EBITDA positivity [43][86] Question: What are the expectations for the back half of the year in the data business? - The data business is expected to grow slightly above 30% for the year, with Q4 anticipated to be the largest revenue quarter [62] Question: How is the liquid biopsy business performing? - The liquid biopsy franchise is growing faster than the market, with a competitive product set [68][70] Question: What is the company's appetite for acquisitions or partnerships? - The company remains opportunistic but disciplined in pursuing acquisitions that align with its strategic goals [78][80] Question: How significant will MRD be in the oncology volumes? - MRD is expected to become a larger part of the business once reimbursement is secured, which will drive unit growth [90][94]
Tempus Ai,Inc.(TEM) - Prospectus(update)
2024-06-13 10:26
As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on June 13, 2024 Registration No. 333-279558 UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 Amendment No. 2 to FORM S-1 REGISTRATION STATEMENT UNDER Table of Contents THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933 Tempus AI, Inc. (Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter) (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) Delaware 7370 47-4903308 (Primary Standard Industrial Classification Code Number) 600 West Chicago Avenue, ...
Tempus Ai,Inc.(TEM) - Prospectus
2024-05-20 21:04
Table of Contents As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 20, 2024 Registration No. 333- UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549 FORM S-1 REGISTRATION STATEMENT UNDER THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933 Tempus AI, Inc. (Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter) (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) Delaware 7370 47-4903308 (Primary Standard Industrial Classification Code Number) 600 West Chicago Avenue, Suite 510 Chicago, Illino ...