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Tempus AI Stock Jumps Post Q2 as EBITDA Breakeven Nears: Buy or Hold?
ZACKS· 2025-08-13 20:02
Core Insights - Tempus AI's stock has increased nearly 13% since the release of its second-quarter 2025 earnings, driven by strong revenue growth and strategic positioning in a high-value market [1] - The company reported an 89.6% year-over-year revenue increase, primarily due to a significant rise in Genomics revenues and growth in its Data and Services segment [1][6] - Gross profit more than doubled, and adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed, indicating a clear path to profitability [2][6] Financial Performance - Revenues rose 89.6% year over year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.12%, with Genomics revenues surging by 115% and Data and Services increasing by 35.7% [6][9] - Adjusted operating expenses decreased by 57.8%, leading to a reduction in adjusted EBITDA losses to $5.6 million from $31.2 million a year ago [7][9] - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance and strengthened liquidity through a $750 million convertible note offering [2][8] Market Position - In August, Tempus AI's shares surged 17.3%, outperforming the Medical Info Systems industry, which declined by 3% [3] - The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating upward momentum and price stability [10] - Despite strong performance, the stock is currently overvalued compared to its industry, with a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.98, higher than the industry average of 5.57 [12] Future Outlook - Tempus AI is positioned to achieve sustainable profitability soon, supported by high-margin revenue growth and disciplined cost control [8][13] - Management has reaffirmed its $5 million adjusted EBITDA target for 2025, representing a $110 million improvement over 2024 [7] - The company's ability to maintain growth momentum and control costs will be crucial for its path to sustained profitability [13]
TEM's Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Stock Up in Pre-Market
ZACKS· 2025-08-08 13:51
Core Insights - Tempus AI, Inc. reported a narrower adjusted loss of 22 cents per share for Q2 2025, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.35% [1][8] - Revenues reached $314.6 million, exceeding expectations by 5.12% and showing an 89.6% year-over-year increase [2][8] Revenue Breakdown - Genomics segment generated $193.8 million in revenues, a 115.3% increase year-over-year, with oncology testing contributing $133.2 million (up 32.9%) and hereditary testing $97.3 million (up 33.6%) [3][8] - Data and Services product line reported $72.8 million in sales, reflecting a 35.7% year-over-year growth, driven by a 40.7% increase in data licensing [4] Margin Performance - Gross profit for the quarter was $195 million, up 158.3% from the previous year, with an adjusted gross margin of 62%, expanding by 1649 basis points despite a 32.2% rise in costs [5] Liquidity Position - At the end of Q2 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $186.3 million, an increase from $151.6 million at the end of Q1 [6] - Cumulative net cash used in operating activities was $61.46 million, significantly reduced from an outflow of $198.5 million in the prior year [6] Full-Year Outlook - Updated guidance for 2025 projects revenues of approximately $1.26 billion, indicating nearly 82% annual growth, with adjusted EBITDA expected to improve by approximately $110 million over 2024 [7] Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, shares of Tempus AI rose by 2.2% in pre-market trading, reflecting positive market sentiment [2][9]
Tempus Ai,Inc.(TEM) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-08-08 13:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 89.6% to $314.6 million, with Genomics revenue rising 115% to $241.8 million driven by volume growth in oncology [4][5] - Quarterly gross profit reached $195 million, reflecting a 160% increase, while adjusted EBITDA improved from negative $16 million to negative $5.6 million [5][6] - Full year 2025 revenue guidance was raised to $1.26 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA forecast of approximately $5 million, indicating a $110 million improvement over the previous year [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Genomics revenue growth was primarily attributed to oncology volume growth, which increased from 20% to 26% [4] - Data and Services revenue grew by 35.7% to approximately $73 million, led by a 41% increase in data licensing from Incyte [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Significant sequential volume growth was observed across the entire oncology testing compendium, with hereditary volumes also exceeding expectations [12][14] - The company is capturing market share from historical players who have reduced their presence in the market, indicating strong tailwinds in the overall space [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining growth while approaching adjusted EBITDA breakeven, with plans to continue investing in growth opportunities [6][43] - There is a strong emphasis on AI and data integration into diagnostics, with expectations that this will transform R&D portfolios and patient care [49][52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of growth, highlighting the importance of long-term strategies over short-term gains [97] - The company anticipates that reimbursement for MRD (Minimal Residual Disease) testing will occur in 2026, which is expected to significantly boost volumes [58][90] Other Important Information - The company issued $750 million of 0.75% convertible notes to reduce interest expenses and improve cash flow [6] - The data business is expected to grow at around 30% for the year, with Q4 typically being the largest revenue quarter [62] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the strong core genomic volumes in the quarter? - Management noted significant sequential volume growth across oncology testing, driven by sales force efficiencies and technology improvements [12][13] Question: How should we think about the cadence of ASP as you migrate volumes to CDx? - ASPs are expected to see incremental gains as the company approaches its target of migrating 40% of XT volume to CDx by year-end [22] Question: Can you discuss bookings trends for Insights and Trials? - Bookings were strong due to the AstraZeneca Pathos deal, with total contract value up materially [30] Question: What is the pipeline for future partnerships with pharma? - The pipeline remains robust, with no significant pressure from competitors, and the company expects to close large deals in the future [39] Question: How do you balance investments among various parts of the business? - The company aims to maintain discipline in investments while focusing on long-term growth and adjusted EBITDA positivity [43][86] Question: What are the expectations for the back half of the year in the data business? - The data business is expected to grow slightly above 30% for the year, with Q4 anticipated to be the largest revenue quarter [62] Question: How is the liquid biopsy business performing? - The liquid biopsy franchise is growing faster than the market, with a competitive product set [68][70] Question: What is the company's appetite for acquisitions or partnerships? - The company remains opportunistic but disciplined in pursuing acquisitions that align with its strategic goals [78][80] Question: How significant will MRD be in the oncology volumes? - MRD is expected to become a larger part of the business once reimbursement is secured, which will drive unit growth [90][94]