November 19, 2025 05:47 PM GMT GDS Holdings Ltd | Asia Pacific M Update 3Q25 Results in Line; Wait for 2026 Orders Reaction to earnings Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Management expects 2026 bookings to be strong backed by In line 3Q25 results: GDS reported 3Q25 revenue of Rmb2.9bn, up 10.2% YoY and in line with our estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was up 11.4% YoY to Rmb1.3bn, 1% a ...

19 November 2025 | 9:27PM HKT Equity Research GDS Holdings (GDS): First Take: 3Q25 GDS China revenue/EBITDA largely in line, with 30MW order wins; DayOne solid beat GDS Holdings (GDS/9698.HK) reported 3Q25 results that were largely in line with GSe and Visible Alpha Consensus Data on both revenue and adj. EBITDA (+10%/11% yoy, respectively). Capacity utilized grew 11% yoy while MSR dropped -2% yoy/-3% qoq. In 3Q25, GDS China received a total 30MW hyperscale new orders, compared to 40MW/152MW orders in 2Q/1Q ...

GDS (NasdaqGM:GDS) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 19, 2025 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsDan Newman - CFOSarah Wang - Associate DirectorLaura Chen - Head of Investor RelationsWilliam Huang - Founder, Chairman and CEOConference Call ParticipantsTimothy Chow - AnalystYang Liu - Executive Director and AnalystFrank Louthan - AnalystMichael Elias - AnalystEdison Lee - AnalystOperatorHello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by for GDS Holdings Limited, Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue increased by 10.2% year-on-year, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 11.4% year-on-year, continuing a healthy growth trend since recovery began last year [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2025 grew by 15.4% on a pro forma basis after deconsolidating certain data center project companies [10] - The net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA multiple decreased from 6.8 times at the end of 2024 to 6.0 times at the end of Q3 2025, primarily due to cash proceeds from asset monetization [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total new bookings for the first nine months of 2025 reached 75,000 sq m, or 240 megawatts, with expectations to achieve nearly 300 megawatts for the full year [5] - Approximately 65% of the bookings in 2025 are AI-related, indicating a strong focus on AI infrastructure [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The domestic tech industry in China is at a critical juncture, with major players making significant financial commitments to AI infrastructure, marking the end of a previous downturn [6] - The company has secured around 900 megawatts of powered land in tier one markets, suitable for AI demand, particularly for AI inferencing [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to adopt a more aggressive approach to new business while maintaining financial discipline, focusing on acquiring more powered land in cost-effective locations [9][19] - The establishment of a data center REIT provides a competitive advantage in accessing capital and monetizing assets efficiently [8][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the upcoming AI demand based on the development of domestic technologies and the ramp-up of local chip companies [7] - The company anticipates higher bookings next year, leading to growth acceleration thereafter, despite a subdued booking environment in Q2 2025 [15] Other Important Information - The CREET platform started trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with units priced significantly higher than the IPO price, indicating strong market interest [10][11] - The company expects organic CapEx for the full year to be around RMB 4.8 billion, with net CapEx around RMB 2.7 billion after asset monetization proceeds [12][13] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is needed for the China market to reach an inflection point? - Management indicated strong market demand and significant investments from customers as key indicators, along with improvements in domestic chip efficiency and production capacity [18] Question: What is the new overall investment return with the CREET scheme? - The unit economics of data center investment in China are solid, with cash-on-cash yields typically around 11%-12%, and levered IRR well into the 20s [20][21] Question: Will new bookings include new powered land acquisitions? - Management stated that new bookings next year will not fully rely on new land acquisitions but will focus on securing additional powered land [27] Question: How does the company view the impact of the tightened power quota in China? - Management believes that their established relationships with governments will mitigate challenges in acquiring new power quotas [28] Question: What is the outlook for customers acquiring GPUs and ramping installations? - Management noted a strong positive view for future demand, but could not provide specific details due to the independence of Day One [33][35] Question: How does the company view the pricing trend and competitive landscape? - Management expects a 3-4% decrease in MSR due to downward price resets and elevated movement levels, while emphasizing the importance of financial capability in the competitive landscape [57][60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue increased by 10.2% year-on-year, and adjusted EBITDA grew by 11.4% year-on-year, continuing a healthy growth trend since recovery began last year [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2025 grew by 15.4% on a pro forma basis after deconsolidating certain data center project companies [10] - The net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA multiple decreased from 6.8 times at the end of 2024 to 6.0 times at the end of Q3 2025, primarily due to cash proceeds from asset monetization and deconsolidation of debt [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total new bookings for the first nine months of 2025 reached 75,000 square meters, or 240 megawatts, with expectations to achieve nearly 300 megawatts for the full year [5] - Approximately 65% of the bookings in 2025 are AI-related, indicating a significant focus on AI infrastructure [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The domestic tech industry in China is at a critical juncture, with major players committing unprecedented financial resources to AI infrastructure, marking the end of a downturn and the beginning of a recovery for the data center sector [5] - The company has secured around 900 megawatts of powered land in tier one markets, suitable for AI demand, particularly for AI inferencing [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to take a more aggressive approach to new business while maintaining financial discipline, focusing on acquiring more powered land in strategic locations [8][9] - The successful IPO of a data center REIT in China provides a competitive advantage in accessing capital and monetizing assets efficiently [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the upcoming AI demand based on the development of domestic technologies and the ramp-up of local chip companies [6] - The company anticipates higher bookings next year, leading to growth acceleration thereafter, despite a subdued booking environment in Q2 2025 [14] Other Important Information - The company expects organic CapEx for the full year to be around RMB 4.8 billion, with net CapEx after asset monetization proceeds estimated at RMB 2.7 billion [12] - The effective interest rate has dropped to 3.3%, benefiting from the favorable interest rate environment in China [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is needed for the China market to reach an inflection point? - Management indicated strong market demand and significant investments from customers as key indicators, along with improvements in domestic chip efficiency and production capacity [18] Question: What is the new overall investment return with the CREET scheme? - The unit economics of data center investment in China are solid, with cash-on-cash yields typically around 11%-12% on new investments, and levered IRR well into the 20s [20][21] Question: Will new bookings next year include new powered land acquisitions? - Management clarified that new bookings will not solely rely on new land acquisitions, but securing additional land would enhance capabilities [27] Question: How does the company view the competitive landscape? - The company emphasized that financial capability and access to capital markets are becoming critical competitive advantages, beyond just land and power capabilities [60][61]

Group 1 - Baron Real Estate Fund delivered a strong performance in Q3 2025, appreciating 10.25% compared to the MSCI US REIT Index's 4.49% and the MSCI USA IMI Extended Real Estate Index's 5.65% [1] - The fund highlighted Iron Mountain Incorporated (NYSE:IRM) as a new REIT position, citing its compelling valuation and attractive long-term growth prospects [3] - Iron Mountain's revenue increased by 13% to $1.8 billion in Q3 2025, indicating strong operational performance [4] Group 2 - Iron Mountain's stock experienced a one-month return of -4.36% and a 52-week loss of 12.79%, closing at $101.15 per share with a market capitalization of $29.899 billion on November 11, 2025 [2] - Despite acknowledging Iron Mountain's potential, the company believes certain AI stocks present greater upside potential and less downside risk [4] - Iron Mountain is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 47 hedge fund portfolios holding its shares at the end of Q2 2025, up from 40 in the previous quarter [4]

Summary of China Data Centers Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China data center industry, specifically operators GDS and VNET, both rated as "Buy" by Goldman Sachs. Sinnet was mentioned as a "Sell" rated company due to its below-expected 3Q25 results [1][13]. Key Points and Arguments 1. 3Q25 Results Expectations - GDS is expected to report a revenue growth of +11% year-over-year (yoy) to Rmb2.90 billion and adjusted EBITDA growth of +10% to Rmb1.32 billion, which is largely in line with consensus data [1][34]. - VNET is anticipated to report a revenue increase of +17% yoy to Rmb2.47 billion and adjusted EBITDA growth of +28% to Rmb761 million, slightly above consensus [1][35]. 2. Order Visibility and Demand - There is an increased visibility of new orders into 2026, driven by improved domestic chip availability and rising AI capital expenditures from both Chinese and US hyperscalers [2]. - VNET is expected to see new orders from internet vertical customers due to multi-chip adoption, following a significant wholesale order announced in September [2]. 3. Time-to-Market Importance - Time-to-market has become a critical factor for IDC customers, with delivery timelines shortened to 6-9 months compared to 12-14 months previously. This shift is expected to enhance project internal rate of return (IRR) [3]. 4. Capital Expenditure and Financing - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has normalized REIT issuance, which is expected to benefit domestic leaders like GDS and VNET. GDS may start applying for new projects as early as 1H26 [4]. - VNET announced a private REIT issuance of Rmb860 million, which is expected to support its capital recycling for AI capex investments [4]. 5. Market Pricing and Contract Renewals - The industry is experiencing stable pricing at the project level, but increasing contract renewals at lower market prices may negatively impact the monthly service revenue (MSR) for companies with historically larger orders. GDS's MSR is projected to remain flat in 2025 but decline by -4% in 2026-27 [11]. 6. Forecast Adjustments - GDS's 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates have been fine-tuned slightly, while 2026-27 estimates have been lowered by 2%-4% due to anticipated lower MSR from contract renewals [12]. - VNET's forecasts have been adjusted within 1%, while Sinnet's revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates have been reduced by 3-4% and 2-4%, respectively, following its disappointing 3Q25 results [12]. 7. Valuation and Price Targets - The 12-month price targets for GDS and VNET have been updated to US$44 and US$14, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook based on the SOTP valuation method [40][58]. - GDS is projected to have a market cap of $7.5 billion with a revenue forecast of Rmb11.53 billion for 2025, while VNET's market cap is estimated at $2.6 billion with a revenue forecast of Rmb9.78 billion for the same year [37][58]. 8. Risks and Challenges - Key risks include below-expected move-in demand, slower overseas revenue ramp-up, and potential customer churn. The pricing trend in both domestic and international markets remains a concern [56]. Additional Important Insights - The focus on backlog delivery for GDS is expected to enhance revenue growth visibility and improve EBITDA and free cash flow [55]. - The conference highlighted the competitive landscape, with GDS and VNET trading at 11.8x and 9.9x 12-month forward EV/EBITDA ratios, respectively, indicating a narrowing valuation gap since 2022 [19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China data center industry.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Riot reported total revenue of $180.2 million for Q3 2025, an 18% increase from $153 million in the previous quarter [24] - Net income for Q3 was $104.5 million, or $0.26 per fully diluted share, compared to $219.5 million, or $0.58 per fully diluted share in the prior quarter [24] - Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $197.2 million, down from $495.3 million in the previous quarter [24] - Bitcoin production slightly declined to 1,406 Bitcoin from 1,426 Bitcoin in the prior quarter, attributed to an 8% increase in the global hash rate [24][25] - Riot ended Q3 holding 19,287 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $2.2 billion [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Bitcoin mining revenue for Q3 was $160.8 million, with a total direct cost per Bitcoin of $46,324, resulting in a gross profit of $95.7 million, or a 59% gross profit margin [26] - The company generated $31 million in power credits, lowering the net cost of power to $0.32 per kilowatt-hour [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 1.7 gigawatts of Riot's total capacity is located in the Dallas and Austin regions, which are highly attractive data center markets [22] - Riot's power portfolio totals more than 1.8 gigawatts, fully approved and available today, positioning it as one of the largest in North America [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Riot is transforming into a significant data center developer and operator, with a focus on maximizing the value of its power portfolio by transitioning megawatts towards data center development [20][35] - The company is initiating the core and shell development of two buildings at the Corsicana Data Center campus, representing 112 megawatts of critical IT capacity [4][17] - The overall development plan includes nearly 2 gigawatts of secured utility-load power, with a focus on high-quality tenants to ensure strong foundations for the data center business [6][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the demand for data center capacity, driven by the growing needs of hyperscalers and enterprise customers [4][37] - The company is focused on building a strong foundation for its data center business, emphasizing the importance of delivery timelines and minimizing risks for potential tenants [38][46] - Management highlighted the strategic advantage of having a strong balance sheet, significant cash reserves, and a large Bitcoin holding to support ongoing transformations [34] Other Important Information - Riot has made substantial progress in its design program, completing a standardized data center basis of design that meets tier-three resiliency and efficiency expectations [11] - The company has acquired 67 acres of land adjacent to its Corsicana site for $40 million, enhancing its development capabilities [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on discussions with potential tenants for the first builds - Management is encouraged by the current market position and the growing demand for power among hyperscalers and enterprise customers, indicating a strong interest in the Corsicana site [36][40] Question: Additional power procurement opportunities - Management remains active in exploring opportunities to expand the power portfolio, but the focus is primarily on maximizing the current development potential [41][42] Question: Impact of core and shell construction on negotiations - The construction of core and shell buildings is part of the strategy to de-risk projects and provide certainty to potential tenants regarding delivery timelines [44][46] Question: Thoughts on Rockdale site development - Rockdale shares many attractive characteristics with Corsicana, and while Corsicana is the near-term focus, Rockdale remains a viable option for future development [55][56] Question: Hiring strategy and team development - The company is actively building its team in alignment with business development phases, focusing on key roles in development, engineering, and sales [61][63]

Core Viewpoint - Bitfarms Ltd. is set to report its third quarter 2025 financial results on November 13, 2025, before market opening, with a conference call scheduled for the same day at 8:00 am EST [1]. Company Overview - Bitfarms is a North American energy and digital infrastructure company focused on building and operating advanced data centers and energy infrastructure for high-performance computing and Bitcoin mining [3]. - The company has a significant energy pipeline of 1.3 GW, with over 80% of its projects based in the U.S., strategically located in areas with strong access to power and fiber infrastructure [3]. - Founded in 2017, Bitfarms has established itself as a leader in digital infrastructure across the Americas, with headquarters in New York, NY, and Toronto, ON, and is publicly traded on both the Nasdaq and Toronto Stock Exchange [4].

Core Insights - Equinix reported quarterly funds from operations (FFO) of $9.83 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.26 per share, and up from $9.05 per share a year ago, representing an FFO surprise of +6.16% [1] - The company posted revenues of $2.32 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.32%, but showing an increase from $2.2 billion year-over-year [2] - Equinix shares have underperformed the market, losing about 13.4% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 17.2% [3] Financial Performance - Over the last four quarters, Equinix has surpassed consensus FFO estimates three times and topped revenue estimates two times [2] - The current consensus FFO estimate for the upcoming quarter is $9.36 on revenues of $2.45 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $38.19 on revenues of $9.26 billion [7] Market Outlook - The sustainability of Equinix's stock price movement will depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and future FFO expectations [3][4] - The estimate revisions trend for Equinix was mixed ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] - The REIT and Equity Trust - Retail industry, to which Equinix belongs, is currently in the top 33% of Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]