Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 11% year-over-year, with a price mix contributing 70 basis points to this growth, while volume declined by 2.2% due to pressures in certain product lines [16][17] - Gross margin as a percentage of sales decreased by 30 basis points to 48.5%, influenced by increased outside purchases related to the Simple Mills business model [17] - GAAP diluted EPS for the quarter was a loss of $0.32, a decrease of $0.52 from the prior year, primarily due to a $136 million non-cash impairment of intangible assets [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fresh packaged bread category saw Flowers maintain unit share, with Dave's Killer Bread gaining 20 basis points, while traditional loaf unit sales declined by 4% in Q4 [3][4] - The cake business experienced a 5% growth in unit sales, driven by the strength of the Wonder brand, despite a 3% decline in category unit sales [11] - Specialty premium loaf gained 60 basis points of unit share, largely driven by DKB, which added 50 basis points [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall bread category experienced a 2% decline, while the food category saw a modest increase in unit sales [4] - The competitive environment remained rational but challenging, with the average price per unit in the bread category rising by 1.1% [26] - Consumer behavior is shifting towards value-seeking, with increased sales in club stores and a decline in center store volumes [28][29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is conducting a comprehensive review of operations to reignite top-line growth and expand margins, focusing on optimizing the brand portfolio and enhancing supply chain capabilities [4][5] - Investments in marketing and innovation are expected to create near-term margin pressure but are deemed essential for long-term growth [5][22] - The integration of Simple Mills is progressing well, with expectations for significant growth driven by innovation and expanded distribution [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for 2026, anticipating continued category headwinds, particularly in traditional loaf, and inflationary pressures on inputs [21][22] - The company plans to balance investments in leading brands with the need to manage costs and maintain profitability [22][30] - Management remains committed to navigating current challenges while positioning for future success through strategic initiatives [30] Other Important Information - The company generated cash flow from operating activities of $446 million in 2025, an increase of $34 million over the prior year [20] - Capital expenditures decreased to $127 million, while dividends paid increased to $209 million [20] - The company is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet, with net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at approximately 3.3x [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for 2026? - The company expects total sales to be down 180 basis points to up 20 basis points, with category headwinds anticipated to be around 4% [21] Question: How is the Simple Mills integration progressing? - The integration is progressing well, with expectations for double-digit sales growth driven by innovation and expanded distribution [24]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a net sales increase of 11% year-over-year, with a price mix increase of 70 basis points, while volume declined by 2.2% [16][17] - Gross margin as a percentage of sales decreased by 30 basis points to 48.5%, influenced by increased outside purchases related to the Simple Mills business model [17] - GAAP diluted EPS for the quarter was a loss of $0.32, a decrease of $0.52 from the prior year, primarily due to a $136 million non-cash impairment of intangible assets [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fresh packaged bread category saw Flowers maintain unit share, with Dave's Killer Bread gaining 20 basis points, while traditional loaf unit sales declined by 4% in Q4 [3][4] - The cake business experienced a 5% growth in unit sales, driven by Wonder's brand recognition, despite a 3% decline in category unit sales [11] - Specialty Premium Loaf gained 60 basis points of unit share, largely driven by DKB, which added 50 basis points [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall bread category experienced a 2% decline, while the food category saw a modest increase in unit sales [4] - The competitive environment remained rational but challenging, with a 1.1% increase in average price per unit in the bread category [26] - Consumer behavior is shifting towards value-seeking, with increased sales in club stores and a decline in center store volumes [28][29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is conducting a comprehensive review of operations to reignite top-line growth and expand margins, focusing on brand portfolio optimization and supply chain enhancements [4][5] - Investments in marketing and innovation are expected to create near-term margin pressure but are deemed essential for long-term growth [5][22] - The integration of Simple Mills is progressing well, with expectations for significant growth driven by innovation and expanded distribution [12][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for 2026, anticipating continued category headwinds, particularly in traditional loaf, and inflationary pressures [21][22] - The company plans to balance investments in leading brands with the need to manage costs and maintain profitability [22][30] - Management emphasized the importance of adapting to consumer trends by prioritizing better-for-you products and innovative offerings [29][30] Other Important Information - The company generated cash flow from operating activities of $446 million in 2025, an increase of $34 million over the prior year [20] - Capital expenditures decreased to $127 million, while dividends paid increased to $209 million [20] - The company is committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet, with a net debt to trailing twelve-month Adjusted EBITDA ratio of approximately 3.3 times [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for growth in 2026? - The company expects fiscal 2026 net sales to be between $5.163 billion and $5.267 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $465 million to $495 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.80 to $0.90 [24][25] Question: How is the integration of Simple Mills progressing? - The integration is progressing well, with expectations for double-digit sales growth driven by expanded distribution and innovation [24]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 11% year-over-year, with a price mix increase of 70 basis points, while volume declined by 2.2% [16][17] - Gross margin as a percentage of sales decreased by 30 basis points to 48.5% compared to the same quarter last year [17] - GAAP diluted EPS for the quarter was a loss of $0.32, a decrease of $0.52 from the prior year, while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.22, consistent with the prior year [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fresh packaged bread category saw Flowers maintain unit share, with Dave's Killer Bread gaining 20 basis points, while traditional loaf unit sales declined by 4% in Q4 [3][4] - The cake business improved revenues, with Flowers' cake unit sales growing by 5%, while the overall category unit sales declined by 3% [10] - Simple Mills contributed $57.5 million in net sales and $6.3 million to Adjusted EBITDA, indicating strong performance in the snacking categories [19][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall bread category experienced a 2% decline, while the food category saw a modest increase in units [4] - The competitive environment remained rational but challenging, with a 1.1% increase in average price per unit in the bread category [27] - Consumer behavior is shifting towards value-seeking, with increased sales in club stores and a decline in center store volumes [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is conducting a comprehensive review of operations to reignite top-line growth and expand margins, focusing on brand portfolio optimization and supply chain enhancements [4][5] - Investments in marketing and innovation are expected to create near-term margin pressure but are deemed essential for long-term growth [5][23] - The company aims to leverage leading brands to uncover growth opportunities in specialty premium loaf, sandwich buns, and breakfast segments [7][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for 2026, anticipating continued category headwinds, particularly in traditional loaf [22] - The company expects total sales to be down 180 basis points to up 20 basis points, with inflationary pressures impacting margins [22][23] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet and managing capital structure prudently amid a challenging macro environment [20][21] Other Important Information - A non-cash impairment of $136 million was recognized due to a review of the brand portfolio, indicating a lower long-term outlook for certain brands [18][19] - The company is committed to enhancing margins through efficiency initiatives and strategic acquisitions, with a focus on better-for-you products [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for 2026 sales growth? - The company expects fiscal 2026 net sales to be between $5.163 billion and $5.267 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $465 million to $495 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.80 to $0.90 [25][26] Question: How is the Simple Mills acquisition performing? - Simple Mills is expected to drive double-digit sales growth, supported by expanded distribution and innovation, despite higher costs impacting margins [25][30]

Core Insights - Flowers Foods, Inc. reported a net loss of $67.1 million for Q4 2025, primarily due to a $136.0 million non-cash impairment of intangible assets, while net sales increased by 11.0% to $1.233 billion [1][4] - For the fiscal year 2025, net income decreased by 66.2% to $83.8 million, with net sales rising 3.0% to $5.256 billion [1][4] - The company anticipates financial performance in 2026 to be below 2025 levels due to ongoing category challenges and one fewer week of operations [1][2] Fourth Quarter Summary - Simple Mills contributed $57.5 million in net sales and a net loss of $6.2 million [1] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14.7% to $117.4 million, representing 9.5% of net sales [1][4] - Diluted EPS decreased to a net loss of $0.32, while adjusted diluted EPS remained consistent at $0.22 [1][4] Fiscal Year 2025 Summary - Simple Mills contributed $213.9 million in net sales and a net loss of $14.4 million [1] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 0.6% to $535.2 million, representing 10.2% of net sales [1][4] - Diluted EPS decreased to $0.40, while adjusted diluted EPS decreased to $1.09 [1][4] Operational Highlights - Cash flow from operating activities increased by $33.5 million to $446.2 million [1][4] - Capital expenditures decreased by $5.0 million to $127.1 million, while dividends paid increased by $6.3 million to $209.3 million [1][4] - The company reported cash and cash equivalents of $12.1 million at year-end [1][4] Future Outlook - For fiscal 2026, the company expects adjusted diluted EPS of approximately $0.80 to $0.90 and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $465 million to $495 million [1][2] - Net sales are projected to be approximately $5.163 billion to $5.267 billion, reflecting a change of -1.8% to 0.2% compared to the prior year [1][2]

Core Insights - Flowers Foods, Inc. has appointed David Roach as the chief DSD operations officer to enhance execution and accountability in the company's direct-store-delivery operations [1][2][4] - The company has consolidated its cake division under Dan Scott, who will focus on accelerating performance and driving profitable growth [5][6][7] - The leadership changes aim to improve operational efficiency and align with company goals in a dynamic retail environment [4][7] Leadership Changes - David Roach has full profit-and-loss responsibility for the DSD business, overseeing sales performance and operational efficiency [2] - Roach has over 30 years of experience with Flowers, previously serving as chief strategic projects officer and president of cake operations [3][6] - Dan Scott, with extensive DSD sales experience, will report to Roach and lead the newly formed cake division [5][6] Strategic Focus - The new leadership structure is designed to enhance visibility and influence in DSD sales performance [3] - The consolidation of the cake business reflects Flowers' commitment to operating with greater speed and efficiency [4][5] - The changes are expected to strengthen the DSD model and position the company for long-term success [7] Company Overview - Flowers Foods is one of the largest producers of packaged bakery foods in the U.S., with net sales of $5.1 billion in 2024 [7]

Core Thesis - A bearish thesis on Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) highlights significant challenges facing the company, including declining bread volumes and increased competition from private-label products [1][4][7] Company Overview - Flowers Foods, Inc. is a leading U.S. packaged baked goods company, known for brands like Wonder Bread, Nature's Own, and Dave's Killer Bread, with a distribution network covering approximately 85% of the U.S. population [2] - The company generates around $5.3 billion in revenue, with traditional bread loaves accounting for about 75% of sales, snacks 19%, and frozen/other products 6% [2] Market Challenges - The company faces secular headwinds as consumer preferences shift from traditional sandwich breads to snacking and private-label alternatives, leading to bread volume declines at low- to mid-single-digit rates [4] - Despite attempts to pivot through acquisitions like Simple Mills, which focuses on health-conscious snacks, these initiatives are relatively small and may not significantly offset the decline in core bread sales [4] Financial Constraints - FLO has elevated leverage with $1.3 billion in debt and $400 million in senior notes due in 2026, limiting its capacity for transformative mergers and acquisitions or aggressive expansion [5] - The company experiences high price elasticity in its commoditized bread products, which restricts sustained pricing power, compounded by inflationary pressures on key inputs like wheat and energy [4][5] Growth Outlook - Projected revenue growth for FLO is modest at approximately 2% CAGR, with limited potential for margin expansion, resulting in an unfavorable risk/reward profile [6] - The stock has depreciated by about 47% since previous bullish coverage, reflecting ongoing structural challenges and market conditions that suggest significant downside risk [6][7]

Core Thesis - A bearish thesis on Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) highlights significant challenges facing the company, including declining bread volumes and increased competition from private-label products [1][4][7] Company Overview - Flowers Foods, Inc. is a leading U.S. packaged baked goods company, known for brands like Wonder Bread, Nature's Own, and Dave's Killer Bread, with a distribution network covering approximately 85% of the U.S. population [2] - The company generates around $5.3 billion in revenue, with traditional bread loaves making up about 75% of sales, snacks 19%, and frozen/other products 6% [2] Market Challenges - The company faces secular headwinds as consumer preferences shift from traditional sandwich breads to snacking and private-label alternatives, leading to a decline in bread volumes at low- to mid-single-digit rates [4] - Despite attempts to pivot through acquisitions like Simple Mills, which focuses on health-conscious snacks, these initiatives are relatively small and may not significantly offset the decline in core bread sales [4] - High price elasticity in commoditized bread products limits FLO's pricing power, while inflationary pressures on key inputs such as wheat, oils, packaging, and energy further squeeze margins [4] Financial Position - FLO has elevated leverage with $1.3 billion in debt and $400 million in senior notes due in 2026, constraining its capacity for transformative mergers and acquisitions or aggressive expansion [5] - The company benefits from strong brand recognition and a large-scale distribution system, but competitors like Bimbo Bakeries and Pepperidge Farm are better positioned to defend market share and absorb cost pressures [5] Growth Outlook - Projected revenue growth for FLO is modest at approximately 2% CAGR, with limited potential for margin expansion, resulting in an unfavorable risk/reward profile [6] - Given structural challenges, macroeconomic headwinds, and financial leverage, FLO appears overextended and exposed, indicating significant downside risk under current market conditions [6]

Company Overview - Flowers Foods, Inc. is one of the largest producers of packaged bakery foods in the United States with 2024 sales of $5.1 billion [2] - The company operates bakeries across the country producing a wide range of bakery products [2] - Key brands include Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Canyon Bakehouse, Simple Mills, Wonder, and Tastykake [2] Upcoming Financial Results - Flowers Foods will report its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results on February 12, 2026, after market close [1] - A live question and answer webcast will be hosted the following day at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time [1] - Access to the webcast, press release, pre-recorded remarks by management, and supporting slide presentation will be available at investors.flowersfoods.com [1]

Core Insights - Palm Valley Capital Fund's performance in Q4 2025 was a 0.66% appreciation, underperforming the S&P SmallCap 600's 1.70% gain and the Morningstar Small Cap Total Return Index's 3.12% rise [1] - The Fund increased its allocation to Treasury bills from 74.1% to 76.3% during the quarter, while equity holdings rose by 1.12% [1] - Precious metals investments, particularly in silver, positively influenced equity performance [1] Company-Specific Insights - Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) experienced a one-month return of -4.53% and a 52-week loss of 48.24%, closing at $10.32 per share with a market capitalization of $2.179 billion on January 5, 2026 [2] - In Q4 2025, Flowers Foods was one of the top three detractors from the Fund's performance, despite meeting earnings guidance and reaffirming its outlook [3] - The company is facing a challenging operating environment, with negative volume trends as consumers shift to private-label products and away from traditional loaf bread [3] - Flowers Foods is focusing on growth in healthier product offerings, such as Dave's Killer Bread and Simple Mills snacks, and plans to increase innovation and new product launches [3] - The company is expected to generate strong free cash flow, primarily used for a generous dividend yielding 9%, although a shift towards debt reduction is suggested [3] - Flowers Foods is currently trading at 10x earnings, which is viewed as attractively valued, leading to an increased position in the Fund during the quarter [3]

Company Overview - Flowers Foods, based in Georgia, has been producing baked goods since 1919, with brands including Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, and Tastykake. The company operates 44 bakeries across 19 states and reported sales of $5.1 billion in 2024. Its stock has reached 68 new 52-week lows in the past year, yielding 9.1% [1] Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - Alexandra Real Estate Equities specializes in office and lab space for life sciences, agtech, and technology industries in major U.S. cities. As of September 30, it had 39.2 million square feet of leasable space and has hit 35 new 52-week lows in the past year, yielding 10.7% [3] Market Trends - In 2025, 105 stocks had at least 30 new 52-week lows and a market cap over $1 billion, with 30 of those stocks offering dividend yields of 2.75% or higher. The "Dogs of the Dow" strategy, which selects the highest-yielding stocks, was up 17.8% through December 26 [4][5] Staffing Industry - Robert Half, a staffing business, has hit 52 new 52-week lows in the past year, yielding 8.6%. The company reported a net margin of 2.8% for the trailing 12 months, the lowest in a decade, as hiring has slowed due to a high unemployment rate of 4.6% [7][8] Employee Benefits Sector - Alight administers employee benefits and provides payroll services for over 35 million employees. The company has also hit 52 new 52-week lows, yielding 8.1%. It has pivoted to AI initiatives to improve efficiency amid economic uncertainty [9][10][11] Food Industry - Conagra Brands has reached 40 new 52-week lows, yielding 8.0%. The stock has declined from around $18.30 to below $17.45, with analysts suggesting it may be a value trap [12][13] Real Estate and Investment - Americold Realty Trust has hit 47 new 52-week lows, yielding 6.9%. Despite revenue and EBITDA growth of 69% and 114% respectively over eight years, its share price has declined due to increased net debt of $4.1 billion [14][15][16][17] Retail Sector - Buckle has hit 32 new 52-week lows, yielding 2.6%. The company announced a special cash dividend of $3.00 per share, in addition to its regular quarterly dividend, bringing total dividends to $4.40 per share in 2026, yielding 8.2% at a share price of $53.76 [18][20][21]