Core Insights - Flowers Foods, Inc. is expected to report a revenue increase of 3.6% year-over-year, with third-quarter 2025 revenues estimated at $1.23 billion [1][9] - The earnings consensus estimate remains stable at 23 cents per share, reflecting a significant decline of 30.3% compared to the previous year [2][9] - The company has shown a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.6% on average [2] Revenue and Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Flowers Foods' revenues is $1.23 billion, indicating a 3.6% increase from the same quarter last year [1][9] - Earnings per share are projected at 23 cents, down 30.3% from the prior-year quarter [2][9] Growth Drivers - Flowers Foods continues to benefit from its branded retail portfolio, with products like Dave's Killer Bread and Canyon Bakehouse outperforming the broader category [3] - The company is gaining shelf space and expanding innovation, which is expected to sustain top-line momentum [3][4] - A shift towards better-for-you, premium, and value-oriented bakery segments is being implemented, addressing consumer preferences [4] Challenges - The company faces volume pressure in traditional loaf bread due to changing consumer preferences and the availability of lower-priced alternatives [5] - Competitive intensity in value-tier segments is limiting the impact of innovation and brand investments [5] - A projected 1.4% dip in overall volumes is expected for the third quarter [5] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Flowers Foods, with an Earnings ESP of +0.96% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [6]

Core Points - Flowers Foods, Inc. has appointed D. Anthony Scaglione as the new Chief Financial Officer (CFO), effective January 1, 2026 [1][2] - Scaglione will oversee the company's financial strategy and various functions including treasury, investor relations, accounting, tax, internal audit, risk, procurement, and information security [1][3] - The appointment follows the retirement of Steve Kinsey, who will assist in the transition [3] Company Background - Flowers Foods is one of the largest producers of packaged bakery foods in the United States, with net sales of $5.1 billion in 2024 [5] - The company operates bakeries nationwide and produces a variety of bakery products under well-known brands such as Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, and Wonder [5] Leadership Experience - Scaglione has extensive experience as CFO in several multi-billion-dollar organizations, including Total Wine & More, ODP Corporation, and ABM Industries [3] - His expertise encompasses core finance functions as well as strategy, real estate, procurement, mergers and acquisitions, and IT [3][4]

Core Points - Flowers Foods, Inc. has elected Sterling A. Spainhour to its board of directors, effective October 1, 2025, where he will serve on the audit and finance committees [1][2][3] Company Overview - Flowers Foods, Inc. is one of the largest producers of packaged bakery foods in the United States, with net sales of $5.1 billion in 2024 [4] - The company operates bakeries nationwide, producing a variety of bakery products under brands such as Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Canyon Bakehouse, Simple Mills, Wonder, and Tastykake [4] Board Member Profile - Sterling A. Spainhour brings over 30 years of experience, including roles at Southern Company, Jones Day, and CNN, with expertise in M&A, legal matters, and corporate governance [3] - Spainhour holds degrees in political science, business administration, and law from the University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill and Duke University [3] - He is also a board member of several organizations, including Gray Media and Emory Healthcare Network [3] Strategic Implications - The addition of Spainhour is expected to enhance the board's composition and support the company's strategic priorities aimed at increasing shareholder value [3]

Group 1 - Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) is recognized as one of the largest packaged baked goods producers in the US, with a strong portfolio of popular brands such as Nature's Own and Dave's Killer Bread, which dominate the mainstream and organic bread markets [2][3] - The company is actively reshaping its portfolio by upgrading digital systems and expanding into health-focused and higher-growth product areas, with acquisitions like Simple Mills aimed at attracting health-conscious consumers [3] - Flowers Foods has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2475 per share, maintaining its dividend for 23 consecutive years, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.54% as of September 22 [4]

Management Changes - Steve Kinsey, CFO of Flowers Foods, will retire at the end of the year after 26 years with the company, including 18 years as CFO, and will continue in an advisory role post-retirement [2] - James Shen has been appointed as interim CFO of GitLab, having previously served as vice president of finance since January 2021, replacing Brian Robins who resigned to join Snowflake [3] - Alan Shepard, currently president and CFO of CNX Resources, will become CEO effective January 1, while retaining his role as president; he succeeds Nick Deiuliis, who will retire after 35 years [4] - Josh Greear has been named finance chief of Authority Brands, previously serving as CFO of Primrose Schools and holding various financial leadership roles at Cracker Barrel and The Home Depot [5] - Brett Summerer has been appointed CFO of Accel Entertainment, effective September 22, previously serving as CFO of Verano Holdings and holding leadership roles at Kraft Heinz, Corning, and General Motors [6]

Company Announcement - Flowers Foods, Inc. announced the retirement of Steve Kinsey, the chief financial officer, after 36 years of service, with the last 18 years in the CFO role [1][2] - The company has begun the search for Kinsey's successor with a leading executive search firm and he is expected to serve in an advisory role post-retirement to ensure a smooth transition [1] Leadership Perspective - Ryals McMullian, chairman and CEO, expressed gratitude for Kinsey's leadership and commitment, highlighting his legacy of integrity and excellence [2] - Kinsey reflected on his career at Flowers, emphasizing the honor of working with a talented team and confidence in their ability to continue driving shareholder value [2] Company Overview - Flowers Foods, headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia, is one of the largest producers of packaged bakery foods in the U.S., reporting net sales of $5.1 billion in 2024 [3] - The company operates bakeries nationwide and produces a variety of bakery products under well-known brands such as Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, and Tastykake [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall bread category has declined by approximately 2.5% to 3% [11] - Traditional loaf segment, including honey wheats and white breads, has seen a decline of 5% to 6% [12] - The company has lowered its underlying guidance for both top and bottom lines for 2025 due to challenges in the first half of the year [36][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is innovating around its product portfolio, particularly in keto products and brands like Dave's Killer Bread, which continue to perform well [12][34] - Small loaves are gaining traction, with an increase from three SKUs to six, catering to consumer preferences for reduced consumption [46] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing pressure from economic uncertainty and inflation, impacting consumer behavior [4][6] - The competitive landscape has seen new low-price competitors entering the market, prompting the company to address this with value offerings [23][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to innovate and reposition its product offerings to counteract the decline in traditional bread categories [14][18] - There is a focus on expanding distribution in underpenetrated markets, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast [27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current challenges but expresses confidence in the company's ability to navigate through them, citing strong brand positions [79][80] - The company is committed to maintaining margins while being mindful of consumer price sensitivity in the current economic climate [32][66] Other Important Information - The integration of Simple Mills has gone smoothly, with expectations for growth driven by innovation and distribution expansion [33][35] - The company is undergoing an ERP transition, with plans to ramp up rollouts in the second half of the year [60][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the long-term expectations for the bread category? - Management believes the bread category will evolve, with a shift towards more differentiated items and a decline in traditional soft varieties [15][18] Question: How is the company addressing new low-price competitors? - The company is responding with value offerings and believes that as the economic environment improves, the situation will stabilize [24][25] Question: What is the outlook for brand support and advertising? - The company plans to continue increasing brand support to drive awareness and household penetration, balancing advertising and promotional efforts [65][66] Question: What are the capital allocation priorities post-Simple Mills acquisition? - The focus is on deleveraging while maintaining a strong cash flow position, with the board evaluating the dividend on a quarterly basis [68][71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall bread category has declined by approximately 2.5% to 3% [12] - Traditional loaf segment, including honey wheats and white breads, has seen a decline of 5% to 6% [12] - The company has lowered its underlying 2025 guidance for both top and bottom lines due to challenges in the category and a less robust performance than expected in the first half [37][39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing growth in its keto product line and brands like Dave's Killer Bread and Canyon [12] - The integration of Simple Mills has gone smoothly, with the brand performing in line with expectations despite tariff impacts [34][36] - Small loaves are performing well, with an increase in SKUs from three to six, catering to consumer preferences for reduced carb consumption and less waste [46][47] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on expanding distribution in the Midwest and Northeast, which are identified as growth markets [28] - The competitive landscape has seen new low-price competitors entering the market, prompting the company to address this with value offerings [25][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to innovate around the declining traditional bread segment by introducing differentiated products that meet consumer demands [15][19] - There is a strategic focus on better-for-you snacks and products, with significant innovation planned for 2026 [35][40] - The company is also exploring new shelf set tests with retailers to better organize product offerings [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current economic pressures on consumers, including inflation and job market concerns, which are impacting sales [4][6] - The company believes that while the bread category is challenged, it has historically navigated through such challenges and remains optimistic about future growth [80][81] - Management emphasizes the importance of brand strength and innovation to adapt to changing consumer preferences [83][84] Other Important Information - The company is undergoing an ERP transition, with plans to ramp up rollouts in the second half of the year [63][66] - Input costs are expected to rise in the second half, particularly for palm oil, eggs, and cocoa, which will impact margins [61][62] - The company is focused on deleveraging following the Simple Mills acquisition, with a high payout ratio being evaluated on a quarterly basis [72][75] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the long-term expectations for the bread category? - Management expects the bread category to evolve, with a shift towards more differentiated items and a decline in traditional soft varieties [15][19] Question: How is the integration of Simple Mills progressing? - The integration has been smooth, with the brand performing well and expected to drive growth through innovation and distribution expansion [34][36] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding new low-price competitors? - The company is addressing the entry of low-price competitors by enhancing value offerings and leveraging brand strength [25][26] Question: How does the company plan to manage rising input costs? - The company will explore various strategies, including pricing adjustments, to maintain margins amid rising costs [33][61] Question: What is the outlook for advertising and marketing support? - The company plans to continue increasing brand support to drive awareness and household penetration, balancing advertising and promotional efforts [68][71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing a transition due to a challenging economic environment and shifting consumer trends, which have pressured end markets and hampered recent results [6][7] - Management expects benefits from executing their portfolio strategy and developing a pipeline of innovation, indicating confidence in long-term growth [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The competitive environment has intensified, particularly in the traditional loaf area, with lower-priced entrants affecting results [12][13] - The company is addressing the value shopper segment with new product lines and has seen good performance in premium differentiated products [12][13] - The foodservice business has been refilled with higher-margin products, significantly improving profitability [58] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market remains bifurcated, with strong performance in both premium differentiated products and value offerings, particularly in mass and club channels [12][13] - The company has noted continued weakness in the away-from-home foodservice business [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to innovation to navigate the transition in consumer preferences, particularly moving away from traditional loaf products [30][31] - Management emphasizes the importance of maintaining brand strength and innovation as key strategies to address competitive pressures [36][72] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges that the transition will take time and requires patience, viewing it as a generational shift in the category [51][53] - There is optimism that the category will eventually stabilize, although the timeline is uncertain [52][53] Other Important Information - The company is focused on debt paydown and is cautious about M&A activities in the near term, although it remains a strategic priority [61] - The company has plans to address the weakness in large brands like Nature's Own while continuing to invest in its leading brands [55] Q&A Session Summary Question: Competitive intensity and pricing pressures - Management noted that the promotional environment is elevated but stable, with a focus on differentiated products to drive trial and awareness [12][13] Question: Tariff outlook and capital allocation - Management expects tariffs to decrease significantly and will continue to evaluate capital allocation based on performance and cash flow [18][19] Question: Nature's Own brand performance - Management confirmed that they are committed to investing in Nature's Own and other mainstream loaf products, using a mix of promotional support and marketing [65][66] Question: Innovation and Simple Mills - Management indicated that Simple Mills will continue to innovate aggressively and is performing well despite challenges [43][48] Question: Transition timeline and gross margin management - Management stated that the transition will take time, but there are levers to maintain gross margins despite volume pressures [57] Question: M&A appetite - Management indicated a cautious approach to M&A in the near term, focusing on debt reduction while monitoring market opportunities [61] Question: Retailer changes and shelf space allocation - Management observed that retailers are increasingly focusing on organic products and small loaf segments, reflecting changing consumer trends [73][74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing a transition due to a challenging economic environment and shifting consumer trends, which have pressured end markets and hampered recent results [4] - Management expects further benefits from executing their portfolio strategy and developing a pipeline of innovation, indicating confidence in long-term growth [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The branded side is facing greater competitive intensity, particularly from lower-priced bread products, affecting results in the traditional loaf area [10][11] - The company is seeing good performance in premium differentiated products, while value offerings are also performing well in mass and club channels [11] - The keto product segment grew by 37% in the quarter, highlighting success in innovative product offerings [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The competitive environment remains elevated but stable, with promotional activities increasing around differentiated products to drive trial and awareness [10] - The private label business is experiencing fluctuations, driven by lost business that is eventually replaced [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to aggressively innovating to navigate the transition in consumer preferences, particularly moving away from traditional loaf products [28] - Management emphasizes the importance of innovation and brand strength to maintain competitiveness in a challenging market [34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges that the transition will take time and requires patience, viewing it as a generational shift in the category [53][56] - There is optimism that the category will eventually stabilize, although the timeline for this is uncertain [54] - The company plans to continue investing in brands like Nature's Own to ensure performance despite market challenges [57] Other Important Information - The company is focused on debt paydown and is monitoring the market for potential M&A opportunities, although immediate acquisitions are not prioritized [63] Q&A Session Summary Question: Competitive intensity and pricing strategies - Management noted that the promotional environment is elevated but stable, with increased promotions around differentiated products [10][11] Question: Tariff outlook and capital allocation - Management expects tariffs to decrease based on current observations and will continue to evaluate capital allocation decisions based on performance and cash flow [16][17] Question: Transition timeline for traditional loaf products - Management indicated that the transition will take time and is viewed as a significant shift, with no specific timeline provided [53][56] Question: Innovation contributions from Simple Mills - Management confirmed that Simple Mills will continue to innovate aggressively, with plans to speed up their innovation cycle [43] Question: Retailer changes in response to competitive pressures - Management observed that retailers are focusing on smaller loaf segments and organic products, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [76]