Core Viewpoint - Flowers Foods is currently yielding above 6% based on its quarterly dividend, which is annualized to $0.99, with shares trading as low as $16.43 [1] Group 1: Dividend Importance - Dividends have historically provided a significant portion of the stock market's total return, making them crucial for investors to consider [1] - An example illustrates that despite a nominal loss in share price over twelve years, dividends can substantially enhance total returns, as seen with the iShares Russell 3000 ETF [1] Group 2: Company Status - Flowers Foods is a member of the Russell 3000, indicating its status as one of the largest 3000 companies in the U.S. stock markets [1] - The predictability of dividend amounts is influenced by the company's profitability, which is essential for assessing the sustainability of the current yield [2]

Core Insights - Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 results with both net sales and earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate, leading to a revised full-year outlook due to a challenging consumer environment and higher tariff costs [1][9]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were 35 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents, and decreased from 38 cents in the prior year [2]. - Net sales declined 1.4% year over year to $1,554 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,603 million [2]. - Price/mix declined 0.3% due to increased promotional activity, while volumes dropped 2.7%, primarily from traditional loaf bread and cake [2]. - Branded retail sales decreased 0.4% to $1,011 million, with a 0.9% decline in price/mix and a 1.9% drop in sales volume [3]. - Other sales fell 3.3% to $543 million, influenced by inflationary pressures and non-retail margin optimization strategies [4]. Cost and Margin Analysis - Production costs contracted 50 basis points to 50.1% of sales, aided by moderating ingredient expenses, though offset by lower production volumes and higher workforce-related expenses [5]. - Selling, distribution, and administrative (SD&A) expenses rose to 40.8% of sales, up 110 basis points, driven by higher workforce-related expenses and acquisition costs [6]. - Adjusted EBITDA increased 1.6% to $162 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.4%, expanding 30 basis points [7]. Financial Snapshot - At the end of the fiscal first quarter, cash and cash equivalents were nearly $7.3 million, with long-term debt at $1,790.4 million and stockholders' equity at $1,415.6 million [8]. - Cash flow from operating activities totaled $135.6 million, with capital expenditures of $25.6 million and dividends paid amounting to $52.3 million [8]. Outlook - For fiscal 2025, management revised net sales expectations to a range of $5.297-$5.395 billion, indicating a 3.8% to 5.7% increase year over year, down from previous guidance [9]. - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $534-$562 million, compared to earlier estimates of $560-$591 million [9]. - Adjusted EPS is now expected in the range of $1.05-$1.15, revised from $1.11-$1.24 [10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company acknowledged that its absolute performance in the quarter was unsatisfactory, but it managed to hold unit share in a category that faced greater than expected declines [6][7] - The company is experiencing a dynamic and fluid environment, making it difficult to forecast improvements in unit share for the current year, with management suggesting a more realistic outlook towards 2026 [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on innovation and targeting faster-growing categories to mitigate weaknesses in traditional segments, particularly in the packaged bread category [6][7] - The Wondercake innovation is reportedly pacing ahead of expectations, contributing to unit share gains, although it is still early to determine its long-term impact on the legacy cake business [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a premiumization trend in consumer behavior, with traditional white bread segments facing challenges due to a shift towards healthier options [13][26] - The private label segment has shown marginal improvement in market share, with total units still down but not as significantly as the overall category [53] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to aligning its portfolio with evolving consumer tastes and investing in brand innovation to drive sustainable growth [6][7] - Management emphasized the importance of differentiation in the traditional bread segment to reinvigorate sales and address competitive pressures [14][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the economic environment and consumer health, indicating that improvements may take longer than previously anticipated [12][31] - The company remains confident in its long-term financial targets despite current setbacks, with plans to address health and wellness trends through innovation [26][31] Other Important Information - The company is undergoing supply chain optimization, which includes the closure of an older bakery as part of its restructuring efforts [55] - Management highlighted the introduction of smaller product sizes to cater to changing consumer needs, particularly for smaller households [57] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the core packaged bread category and stabilization - Management indicated that the current environment is challenging, and while there are new business wins, significant improvement in unit share is not expected this year [11][12] Question: Details on the Wondercake innovation's impact - Management noted that it is too early to determine the long-term impact of Wondercake on the legacy cake business, but initial results are promising [16][17] Question: Changes in promotional strategy and consumer behavior - Management acknowledged an increase in promotional activity for differentiated offerings, particularly towards the end of the quarter, while maintaining a cautious approach to avoid devaluing the brand [22][23] Question: Addressing structural headwinds in the bread category - Management confirmed plans to innovate and address health and wellness trends, positioning the company as a leader in the category [26][27] Question: Impact of tariffs on guidance and cost structure - Management explained that tariff impacts are primarily affecting gross margins, with ongoing efforts to mitigate costs in selling, general, and administrative expenses [30][43] Question: Performance of private label and away-from-home business - Management reported continued weakness in foodservice sales but noted improvements in profitability and margins due to restructuring efforts [52][53]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company acknowledged that its absolute performance in the quarter was unsatisfactory, but it managed to hold unit share in a category that faced greater than expected declines [4] - The EBITDA margin guidance was down about 30 to 40 basis points from prior expectations, primarily due to category trends impacting gross margin and tariffs affecting input costs [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on innovation and targeting faster-growing categories to mitigate weaknesses in the core packaged bread category [4][5] - The Wondercake innovation is pacing ahead of expectations in distribution and has contributed to unit share gains, although it is still early to determine its overall impact on the legacy cake business [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The away-from-home segment continues to experience weakness in overall foodservice sales, but profitability and margins have improved due to restructuring efforts [50] - Private label market share has marginally reversed its downward trend, with a slight increase of about 10 basis points in the last quarter [51] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to align its portfolio with evolving consumer tastes and invest in on-trend innovation to drive sustainable growth over the long term [4][5] - The company plans to address the shift towards healthier eating by continuing to innovate and differentiate its offerings, particularly in the health and wellness segment [24][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed that the current economic environment is challenging, making it difficult to forecast improvements in the near term, with a focus shifting towards 2026 for potential recovery [10][12] - The company remains confident in its long-term financial targets and strategies, despite acknowledging that the current situation may delay achieving those targets [30] Other Important Information - The company is undergoing supply chain optimization, which includes closing an older bakery that produced fresh bread, buns, and rolls [53] - The introduction of smaller product sizes is aimed at addressing consumer needs for convenience and value, with early returns being positive [55] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the core packaged bread category and stabilization - Management indicated that the environment remains dynamic and challenging, with expectations for stabilization possibly extending into 2026 [8][10] Question: Details on the Wondercake innovation's impact - Management noted that it is too early to determine the full impact of Wondercake on the legacy cake business, but initial results are promising [14][15] Question: Changes in promotional strategy and consumer behavior - Management confirmed an increase in promotional activity for differentiated offerings, particularly Dave's Killer Bread, while emphasizing a cautious approach to avoid devaluing the brand [20][22] Question: Addressing structural headwinds in the bread category - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by a shift towards healthier eating and indicated plans to innovate in response to these trends [24][25] Question: Insights on private label and away-from-home business performance - Management reported continued weakness in foodservice sales but noted improvements in profitability due to restructuring efforts, while private label market share has shown slight recovery [50][51]

Financial Performance - Flowers Foods reported quarterly earnings of $0.35 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.38 per share, and down from $0.38 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -7.89% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.55 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.04%, and down from $1.58 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Flowers Foods has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times but has not beaten consensus revenue estimates [2] Stock Performance - Flowers Foods shares have lost about 17.4% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 0.6% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Flowers Foods is 3 (Hold), indicating that the shares are expected to perform in line with the market in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.32 on $1.3 billion in revenues, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.18 on $5.43 billion in revenues [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Flowers Foods is mixed, and changes in estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year are anticipated following the recent earnings report [6][7] Industry Context - The Zacks Industry Rank for Food - Miscellaneous is currently in the bottom 40% of over 250 Zacks industries, which may impact the performance of Flowers Foods [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that industry outlook can materially affect stock performance [5][8]

Financial Performance - Net sales decreased 1.4% to $1.554 billion, with pricing/mix down 0.3% and volume down 2.7%, while the Simple Mills acquisition contributed 1.6%[6] - Net income decreased 27.4% to $53.0 million, representing 3.4% of sales, and diluted EPS decreased $0.09 to $0.25[6] - Adjusted EBITDA increased 1.6% to $162.0 million, representing 10.4% of net sales, a 30-basis point increase[6] - Net sales for the 16-week period ended April 19, 2025, were $1,554,230, a decrease of 1.4% compared to $1,576,818 for the same period in 2024[26] - Branded Retail sales decreased by 0.4% to $1,011,273 from $1,015,130 year-over-year[30] - Adjusted net income per diluted common share for the 16-week period ended April 19, 2025, was $0.35, down from $0.38 in the prior year[34] - EBITDA for the 16-week period ended April 19, 2025, was $134,518, compared to $149,941 in the prior year, reflecting a decline in profitability[39] - Adjusted net income for the 16-week period ended April 19, 2025, was $73,706, down from $80,261 in the prior year[43] - The gross margin for the 16-week period ended April 19, 2025, was $748,400, slightly lower than $753,279 in the prior year[36] Future Guidance - The company expects net sales for Fiscal 2025 to be between $5.297 billion and $5.395 billion, representing 3.8% to 5.7% growth compared to the prior year[7] - Adjusted diluted EPS is projected to be approximately $1.05 to $1.15, compared to prior guidance of $1.11 to $1.24[7] - The company provided full-year fiscal 2025 guidance for net income per diluted common share in the range of $0.95 to $1.05[43] Acquisitions and Strategic Moves - The acquisition of Simple Mills contributed $24.3 million in net sales but resulted in a net loss of $4.2 million[6] - The acquisition of Simple Mills was highlighted as a strategic move to enhance market presence and product offerings[20] - The company experienced a 2.4% increase in net sales due to acquisitions, contributing positively to overall sales performance[36] Expenses and Costs - Selling, distribution, and administrative expenses were 40.8% of net sales, a 110-basis point increase due to higher workforce-related costs[11] - Selling, distribution, and administrative expenses (SD&A) were $633,513 for the 16-week period ended April 19, 2025, compared to $625,251 in the prior year[37] - The company incurred restructuring charges of $573 and plant closure costs of $7,397 during the 16-week period[26] Cash Flow and Assets - Cash flow from operating activities increased by $30.5 million to $135.6 million in the first quarter[10] - The company reported a net cash provided by operating activities of $135,634, an increase from $105,149 in the prior year[28] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were $7,340, up from $5,005 at the beginning of the period[28] - Total assets increased to $4,326,946 as of April 19, 2025, compared to $3,400,447 at the end of the previous fiscal year[23] - Long-term debt rose significantly to $1,790,379 from $1,021,644, indicating increased leverage[23] Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $140 million to $150 million, with $4 million to $6 million related to an enterprise resource planning system upgrade[7]

Statements contained in this presentation and certain other written or oral statements made from time to time by Flowers Foods, Inc. (the "company", "Flowers Foods", "Flowers", "us", "we", or "our") and its representatives that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements relate to current expectations regarding our business and our future financial condition and results of operations and are often iden ...

Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) is likely to register top-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on May 16. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.6 billion, which indicates an increase of 1.7% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.The consensus mark for earnings has moved up a penny in the past seven days to 38 cents per share, which is in line with the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. FLO delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.7%, on a ...

Wall Street expects flat earnings compared to the year-ago quarter on higher revenues when Flowers Foods (FLO) reports results for the quarter ended March 2025. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company's earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on May ...

THOMASVILLE, Ga., April 30, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE: FLO) will report its first quarter 2025 financial results on Friday, May 16, 2025, at 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time. The company will host a live question and answer webcast at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time the same day. Access to the webcast, along with the press release, pre-recorded remarks by management with accompanying transcript, and supporting slide presentation, will be available and archived at investors.flowersfoods.com.About Flowers F ...