Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) is among the most undervalued tech giants to buy according to hedge funds. As of December 26, Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) has a ‘Buy’ or equivalent rating from 67% of the analysts covering the stock. With a median price target of $422.50, the stock has an upside potential of 19.73%. On December 17, Tyler Radke from Citi raised the price target on ADBE to $387 from $366 and kept a ‘Neutral’ rating. This revision, implying an upside potential of approximately 10%, follows the company’s ...

Core Insights - Adobe Systems reported $6.19 billion in revenue for the quarter ended November 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 10.5% and an EPS of $5.50 compared to $4.81 a year ago, exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates [1] - The reported revenue surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.1 billion by 1.5%, while the EPS surprise was 2.04% above the consensus estimate of $5.39 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Total Digital Media ARR reached $19.2 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $19.18 billion [4] - Digital Media revenue was $4.62 billion, exceeding the estimated $4.54 billion, reflecting an 11.5% year-over-year increase [4] - Digital Experience revenue was $1.52 billion, slightly above the $1.51 billion estimate, with an 8.9% year-over-year change [4] - Publishing and Advertising revenue was $60 million, surpassing the estimated $50.21 million, but showing a decline of 7.7% year-over-year [4] - Services and other revenue totaled $131 million, below the average estimate of $143.27 million, representing an 18.1% year-over-year decline [4] - Subscription revenue was $5.99 billion, slightly above the $5.9 billion estimate, with an 11.6% year-over-year increase [4] - Products revenue was $74 million, exceeding the estimated $63.03 million, but reflecting an 8.6% year-over-year decline [4] - Subscription Revenue for Digital Experience was $1.41 billion, slightly above the $1.4 billion estimate, with an 11.5% year-over-year increase [4] Stock Performance - Adobe shares returned +3.3% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.8% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Key Takeaways ADBE expects Q4 Digital Media revenues of $4.53-$4.56B, led by AI-driven product demandThe Zacks Consensus Estimate sees Digital Experience revenues at $1.402B, up 10.8% y/y.AI features in Acrobat, Photoshop and Firefly likely fueled subscription and product use growth. Adobe’s (ADBE) fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, set to be reported on Dec. 10, are expected to reflect the benefits of higher Digital Media revenues.Adobe expects fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 Digital Media segment revenues bet ...

Core Insights - Adobe Systems (ADBE) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $5.39 per share, reflecting a 12.1% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $6.1 billion, an 8.9% increase compared to the previous year [1] Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Revenue- Digital Media' is $4.54 billion, indicating a 9.6% increase from the year-ago quarter [4] - 'Revenue- Digital Experience' is projected to reach $1.51 billion, reflecting a 7.9% year-over-year change [4] - 'Revenue- Publishing and Advertising' is expected to be $50.21 million, showing a decline of 22.8% from the prior-year quarter [4] - 'Revenue- Services and other' is estimated at $143.27 million, indicating a decrease of 10.5% year-over-year [5] - 'Revenue- Subscription' is projected to be $5.90 billion, suggesting a 10% increase compared to the previous year [5] - 'Revenue- Products' is expected to reach $63.03 million, reflecting a decline of 22.2% from the prior-year quarter [5] - 'Revenue- Subscription Revenue- Digital Experience' is estimated at $1.40 billion, indicating a 10.8% increase year-over-year [6] - 'Revenue- Subscription Revenue- Digital Media' is projected to be $4.41 billion, reflecting an 8.2% increase from the previous year [6] - 'Revenue- Subscription Revenue- Publishing and Advertising' is expected to be $30.87 million, indicating a 14.3% increase from the prior-year quarter [7] Business Unit Performance - The consensus for 'Business Unit - Digital Media - Total Digital Media ARR (Annual)' is projected at $19.18 billion, compared to $17.22 billion from the previous year [7] Stock Performance - Adobe shares have experienced a change of +0.4% over the past month, compared to a +1.3% move in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [7]

Core Thesis - Adobe Inc. is experiencing a paradox of strong operational performance while trading at a depressed valuation, with a record Q2 2025 revenue of $5.87 billion and a raised full-year guidance [2][5] Financial Performance - Adobe's trailing and forward P/E ratios are 19.96 and 13.70 respectively, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers like Microsoft [1][5] - The company maintains robust cash flow and elite profitability, with gross margins near 90% and return on equity (ROE) above 50% [2] Market Concerns - There are fears that generative AI and low-cost competitors like Canva, Affinity, and Figma may undermine Adobe's dominance in the creative tools market [3][6] - The market's focus on potential disruption has led to a disconnect between Adobe's strong fundamentals and its stock performance, which has depreciated about 13.9% since May 2025 [6] Strategic Initiatives - In response to AI-driven disruption, Adobe has launched Firefly, a proprietary generative AI ecosystem that integrates into its flagship applications, positioning the company as a central hub for creative workflows [4] - Firefly is built on licensed, commercially safe data and aggregates third-party AI models, which helps to neutralize competitive threats while preserving Adobe's pricing power [4] Business Structure - Adobe's business is supported by two main pillars: Digital Media, which includes Creative and Document Cloud with $18 billion in recurring revenue, and Digital Experience, a $6 billion enterprise segment, providing a resilient and diversified foundation [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: US Technology, specifically focusing on large-cap tech stocks - **Key Findings**: Mega-cap tech stocks are currently the most under-owned in over 16 years, with a widening gap compared to the S&P 500 Core Insights - **Under-Ownership of Mega-Cap Tech Stocks**: - The gap in institutional ownership for mega-cap tech stocks compared to the S&P 500 increased to -148 basis points (bps) at the end of Q3 2025, up from -140 bps at the end of Q2 2025 [2][12] - Nvidia (NVDA) is identified as the most under-owned large-cap tech stock, followed by Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Broadcom (AVGO) [1][2] - **Specific Stock Analysis**: - **Nvidia (NVDA)**: - Institutional ownership decreased by 20 bps quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), ending at -2.61% [9] - **Apple (AAPL)**: - Institutional ownership increased by 36 bps QoQ to 4.45%, while S&P 500 weighting rose by 90 bps, resulting in a widening gap of 53 bps to -2.19% [15] - The iPhone 17 cycle is expected to benefit from a longer replacement cycle and upgrades, with a price target of $305 [15] - **Microsoft (MSFT)**: - Institutional ownership increased by ~40 bps QoQ to 5.1%, but remains ~200 bps below its S&P 500 weighting of 7.1% [16] - The company is positioned well for growth beyond GenAI, with a focus on accelerating revenue growth and margin expansion [16] - **Amazon (AMZN)**: - Remains under-owned with a weighting approximately 144 bps below the S&P 500 [17] - AWS revenue growth is expected to accelerate, with a price target of $315 [17] - **Meta (META)**: - Under-owned with a weighting about 40 bps below the S&P 500, with a price target of $820 [19] - **Alphabet (GOOGL)**: - Under-owned with a price target of $330, driven by GenAI innovation and cloud business growth [17][19] Additional Insights - **Institutional Ownership Trends**: - The average active ownership for large-cap tech stocks is significantly lower than their S&P 500 weightings, indicating potential for future stock performance improvements [12] - The analysis suggests a statistically significant relationship between low active ownership and future stock performance, indicating potential upward price movement for under-owned stocks [12] - **Market Dynamics**: - The report highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of institutional ownership as it relates to stock performance, particularly in the context of mega-cap tech stocks [12] - **Risks and Considerations**: - Rising commodity input costs may pressure margins for companies like Apple, but manageable due to better supply chain leverage [15] - Concerns regarding the broader return on investment for Nvidia's AI spending, despite strong demand indicators [25] Conclusion - The current landscape for mega-cap tech stocks presents a unique investment opportunity due to their under-ownership status, particularly for stocks like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft. The analysis indicates potential for upward price movement as institutional ownership adjusts to reflect their market performance.

Core Insights - Adobe Systems reported revenue of $5.87 billion for the quarter ended May 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10.6% and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.79 billion by 1.50% [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $5.06, up from $4.48 in the same quarter last year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.96 by 2.02% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Total Digital Media ARR reached $18.09 billion, slightly above the estimated $18 billion [4] - Digital Media revenue was reported at $4.35 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $4.27 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 11.3% [4] - Revenue from Publishing and Advertising was $70 million, compared to the average estimate of $66.41 million, showing a decline of 5.4% year over year [4] - Digital Experience revenue was $1.46 billion, surpassing the average estimate of $1.44 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 10% [4] - Services and other revenue was $144 million, slightly below the estimated $145.74 million, representing a decline of 0.7% year over year [4] - Subscription revenue totaled $5.64 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $5.55 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 11.5% [4] - Product revenue was reported at $88 million, below the average estimate of $102.79 million, reflecting a decline of 15.4% year over year [4] - Subscription revenue from Digital Experience was $1.33 billion, slightly above the estimate of $1.32 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 10.5% [4] - Subscription revenue from Digital Media was $4.28 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $4.18 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 11.8% [4] - Subscription revenue from Publishing and Advertising was $27 million, below the estimate of $28.81 million, showing a decline of 3.6% year over year [4] Stock Performance - Adobe's shares have returned -7.5% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of 5.1% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential for outperformance in the near term [3]