出品I下海fallsea 撰文I胡不知 2026年1月9日，Minimax登陆港交所，盘中一度涨超110%，收盘市值突破1000亿港元。这一上市表现背 后，一组核心数据构成了市场讨论的焦点：2025年前三季度，Minimax营收5343.7万美元，同比增长超 170%，其中海外市场收入占比达73.1%，新加坡与美国分别贡献24.3%和20.4%的收入。 从2022年成立到跻身千亿市值俱乐部，四年时间里Minimax以"海外收入占七成"的标签，成为国产AI模 型出海的典型样本。但在资本追捧的热潮下，这一数据背后的增长质量、商业模式可持续性及行业竞争 困境，均值得深度审视。 海外收入的"虚假繁荣"与结构性缺陷 Minimax的海外收入呈现"C端主导、B端补充"的格局，2025年前三季度服务全球2.12亿个人用户和13万 企业客户，C端收入占比超71%，B端开放平台日均处理超万亿Tokens请求。但看似多元的业务结构背 后，隐藏着过度依赖单一赛道、盈利基础薄弱的结构性缺陷，海外收入的高占比并未带来同等质量的增 长韧性。 Minimax海外C端收入主要来自两大产品：AI情感陪伴产品Talkie/星野（收入占比35.1 ...

After a year dominated by mega-cap winners and AI bellwethers, several notable stocks were left behind in 2025, quietly positioning themselves to lead in the new year at valuations that remain reasonable relative to their industry peers.Below is a list of the top AI or AI-adjacent stocks that, according to leading analysts and experts, are all set to soar in 2026, after a largely underwhelming performance in 2025.1. Apple Inc.While by no means an underdog, tech giant Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has trailed its ...

Core Insights - Adobe and Alphabet are integrating artificial intelligence into their core products, enhancing their market presence among business, creative, and marketing professionals [1] - Investments in AI solutions are projected to generate a cumulative global impact of $22.3 trillion by 2030, representing approximately 3.7% of global GDP, which is favorable for both companies' stock performance [2] Adobe Insights - Adobe is experiencing strong demand for its AI-powered products, including Creative Cloud Pro and Acrobat, and aims for a 10.2% annual recurring revenue growth by fiscal 2026 [2] - The company is enhancing its marketing capabilities through the Adobe Experience platform and has made strategic acquisitions, such as Semrush, to bolster its AI-driven customer experience solutions [3] - For fiscal 2025, Adobe anticipates total revenues between $25.9 billion and $26.1 billion, with subscription revenues from Business Professionals and Consumers projected at $7.35 billion to $7.4 billion, and Creative and Marketing Professionals at $17.75 billion to $17.9 billion [4] Alphabet Insights - Alphabet is embedding AI into its Search and Google Cloud services, with the launch of Gemini 3 enhancing user experience and ad performance [5][7] - The Google Cloud Platform is seeing robust demand for enterprise AI infrastructure, with revenues from products developed on Google's Gen AI models increasing over 200% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [6] - Alphabet's capital expenditures are expected to rise significantly, with projections between $91 billion and $93 billion for 2025, up from a previous estimate of $85 billion [8] Earnings and Stock Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alphabet's 2025 earnings is $10.58 per share, indicating a 31.6% increase from 2024, while Adobe's estimate has declined to $23.44 per share, suggesting 12% growth [9][10] - Both companies have consistently beaten earnings estimates, but Alphabet's average surprise of 18.74% outperforms Adobe's 2.25% [11] - Over the past year, Alphabet's stock has surged 63%, while Adobe's stock has decreased by 20.9%, indicating diverging investor sentiment [12] Valuation Insights - Both companies are considered overvalued, with Alphabet trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 9.79X compared to Adobe's 5.65X [15] - Currently, both Adobe and Alphabet hold a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [18]

Core Viewpoint - Adobe's extensive use of AI technology has led to a lawsuit claiming the company used pirated books to train its AI model, SlimLM, raising concerns about copyright infringement in the tech industry [1][2]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - A class-action lawsuit has been filed by author Elizabeth Lyon, alleging that Adobe utilized pirated versions of her books to train the SlimLM program [2]. - The lawsuit claims that SlimLM was pre-trained on the SlimPajama dataset, which is derived from the RedPajama dataset that includes copyrighted works [3][4]. - The Books3 dataset, which contains 191,000 books, has been a focal point in legal disputes regarding the use of copyrighted material in AI training [4]. Group 2: Industry Context - The tech industry is facing increasing legal challenges related to the use of copyrighted materials in AI training datasets, with several companies, including Apple and Salesforce, being implicated in similar lawsuits [4][5]. - The case against Anthropic, which resulted in a $1.5 billion settlement for using pirated works, highlights the potential for significant financial repercussions in these legal battles [5].

Key Takeaways Figma integrated AI across its suite, adding image generation, editing and ChatGPT-driven asset creation.FIG's AI launches lifted adoption, with 540,000 paid customers and 131% net dollar retention in Q3 2025.Figma's new products expanded high-value accounts, topping 12,910 customers with $10K ARR by Sept. 30, 2025.Figma (FIG) is investing heavily in making its product suite valuable by integrating AI features. Figma took a leap in AI image generation and editing by integrating Gemini 3 Pro wi ...

Key Takeaways ADBE saw 15% user growth across key platforms and now targets 10.2% ARR growth in fiscal 2026. Adobe's AI tools like Firefly, Acrobat AI and GenStudio are gaining adoption among professionals.Despite a strong AI push, ADBE faces stiff competition and trades at a higher valuation than peers. Adobe’s (ADBE) fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results reflected the benefits of the ongoing AI push that has been helping in advancing the company’s footprint among business, creative and marketing professional ...

Group 1 - Adobe has launched integrations of Photoshop, Express, and Acrobat for ChatGPT users, allowing them to access these tools directly within the chatbot [1][2] - The integration provides Adobe with exposure to over 800 million active users of ChatGPT, enhancing its product visibility [1] - Adobe aims to offer user-friendly features for beginners, with the option to switch to standalone applications for more advanced functionalities [1] Group 2 - Users can utilize Adobe applications in ChatGPT by clicking the "more" menu and inputting commands for image editing or design [2] - Adobe emphasizes that its core generation capabilities are based on its proprietary Firefly models, ensuring commercial usage rights and copyright protection for generated content [2] - OpenAI's integration of third-party applications into ChatGPT is part of a broader strategy to position the platform as a digital service hub [2] Group 3 - The release of OpenAI's GPT-4o has improved image generation capabilities, allowing users to transform photos into artistic styles with natural language commands [3] - The advancements in GPT-4o are expected to lower costs for high-quality image generation in advertising and other applications [3] - The demand for AI-generated images highlights the importance of sufficient computational power to support these applications [3] Group 4 - In the image editing sector, technological differences among products are minimal, with AI driving functional upgrades and user engagement being crucial for adoption [4] - The success of new features relies not only on functionality but also on effective marketing strategies to spark user curiosity and retention [4] Group 5 - The rise of AI is expected to enhance productivity in media applications, benefiting companies that produce quality content and those in digital marketing, e-commerce, and copyright protection [5]

Core Viewpoint - Adobe has demonstrated solid financial performance despite a 35% decline in stock price over the past year, attributed to concerns about AI disruption [1][10] Financial Performance - Adobe's revenue for fiscal 2025 increased by 10% to $6.19 billion, surpassing previous forecasts [6] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 14% to $5.50, exceeding prior estimates [6] - Digital media revenue grew by 11% to $4.62 billion, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) increasing nearly 12% to $19.2 billion [7] - Revenue in the digital experience segment rose by 9% to $1.52 billion, with subscription revenue climbing by 11% to $1.41 billion [8] Future Guidance - For fiscal 2026, Adobe projects revenue between $25.9 billion and $26.1 billion, with total ARR growth of 10.2% [9] - The company forecasts adjusted EPS of $23.30 to $23.50 for fiscal 2026 [9] - For fiscal Q1, revenue is expected to be between $6.25 billion and $6.3 billion, with adjusted EPS forecasted at $5.85 to $5.90 [9] AI Integration and Growth - Adobe has embraced AI through its Firefly model and partnerships with third-party large language models, leading to a threefold increase in generative AI credit consumption [5] - The company is expanding its AI-powered tools, such as Acrobat AI Assistant and GenStudio, which has seen a 25% year-over-year growth in ARR [5][8] Valuation and Investment Outlook - Adobe's stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 times fiscal year 2026 estimates, considered reasonable for a SaaS company with strong gross margins [12] - The company is viewed as a solid earnings compounder, and patient investors may find current stock levels attractive for potential future gains [13]

Core Insights - The article discusses the latest insights from technology companies regarding AI developments and their implications for the industry and business landscape. Adobe - Adobe's management is focusing on the development of its Firefly models and expanding partnerships with other Generative AI models, with the new Firefly Image 5 model showing strong performance [2][3] - The consumption of Generative Credits, which measure usage and monetization of Adobe's models, increased 3x sequentially in Q3 2025, indicating high-value usage [3][12] - Firefly is attracting new creators, with a 2x sequential growth in first-time subscriptions in Q3 2025, and over 100 new deals for Firefly Services were signed by enterprises [5][12] - Adobe's management sees LLMs as a significant opportunity for customer acquisition, allowing for better integration of their models with APIs [6] - The introduction of Adobe Brand Concierge and Firefly Foundry aims to enhance customer engagement and content production efficiency [18][21] MongoDB - MongoDB's management believes that the AI wave has not yet significantly impacted its results, but there are encouraging signs from AI startups building applications on its platform [24][25] - The company sees a structural advantage in its document database model for AI applications, which require a different architecture than traditional databases [26][27] - MongoDB Atlas is supporting significant growth for companies like Mercor, which has seen a 50% month-over-month growth using MongoDB [28][29] - A global media company switched from Elastic Search to MongoDB Atlas, achieving a 90% reduction in latency and a 35% increase in click-through rates [30] NVIDIA - NVIDIA's management reports unprecedented demand for its Blackwell platform, with visibility to $0.5 trillion in revenue from 2025 to 2026 [36][40] - The company anticipates a $3 trillion to $4 trillion annual AI infrastructure build by 2030, driven by increasing compute spend from foundation model builders [37][41] - NVIDIA's GPUs, including older generations, are fully utilized, providing a significant total cost of ownership advantage [39] - The company has seen strong growth in its data center revenue, driven by the GB300 chip, which contributed to a record $51.2 billion in Q3 2025 [40] - NVIDIA's networking revenue has also seen substantial growth, with a 162% year-over-year increase, as major AI deployments now include its networking solutions [47][48]

Core Insights - Adobe reported a strong Q4 earnings performance, exceeding expectations on both revenue and earnings, and provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal year 26 with a target of 10.2% annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth [1][3][8] Business Performance - The company achieved record new business generation in digital media, driven by strong demand for creative solutions integrated with AI [2][4] - Adobe's operating cash flow reached $10 billion for the year, indicating robust financial health [4] User Engagement - Adobe's monthly active users (MAU) in the Creative segment grew over 15%, with premium user growth exceeding 30% at a rate of 70 million MAUs [6][7] - The integration of AI into Adobe's offerings is significant, with AI-influenced ARR now representing over one-third of the business, expected to grow to 100% over time [10][12] Strategic Initiatives - Key growth opportunities include expanding the reach of Acrobat and Express to billions of users and enhancing the Creative Cloud suite with flagship products like Photoshop and Illustrator [9][10] - The recent acquisition of Seamrush is aimed at enhancing brand visibility in both traditional search engines and modern LLMs, complementing Adobe's existing portfolio [18][19] AI Integration - Adobe is focusing on integrating AI capabilities across its products, enhancing user experience and driving future growth [11][13] - The company is also developing a model ecosystem that includes both first-party and third-party models, ensuring flexibility and choice for users [16][17]