2025年08月25日 证券研究报告 | 人工智能行业专题（11） 探究模型能力与应用的进展和边界 行业研究 · 行业专题 互联网 · 互联网II 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：张伦可 证券分析师：陈淑媛 证券分析师：刘子谭 证券分析师：张昊晨 0755-81982651 021-60375431 liuzitan@guosen.com.cn zhanghaochen1@guosen.com.cn zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn chenshuyuan@guosen.com.cn S0980525060001 S0980525010001 S0980521120004 S0980524030003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 报告摘要 Ø 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、广告增长不及预期风险、行业竞争加剧风险、AI技术进展不及预期风险等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2 Ø 本篇报告主要针对海内外模型发展、探究模型能力与应用的进展和边界。我们认为当前海外模型呈现差异化发展，企业调用考虑性价比。当前 OpenAI在技术路径上相对领先，聚焦强化推理与专业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has significantly outperformed the market over the past three years, largely due to the rise of generative AI, but Adobe is positioned to potentially outperform Nvidia in the coming years based on current valuations and competitive dynamics [1][2]. Nvidia - Nvidia's stock price has increased more than tenfold since the launch of ChatGPT, making it the most valuable company globally with a market cap exceeding $4 trillion [2]. - The company reported a 73% year-over-year increase in data center revenue for fiscal Q1 2026, leading to a 33% increase in earnings per share (EPS), although this included a $4.5 billion writedown on inventory [5]. - The lifting of the U.S. ban on sales to China allows Nvidia to reverse the writedown on H20 GPUs, which now have value again [5]. - Competitors like AMD are making strides with their own AI accelerator chips, which could impact Nvidia's market share [6]. - Major customers of Nvidia are developing custom AI accelerators, which may reduce demand for Nvidia's general-purpose GPUs in the long run [7]. - Nvidia's forward P/E ratio of 40 raises concerns about its valuation, suggesting that expectations for continued high growth may be overestimated [8]. Adobe - Adobe's Creative Cloud suite is the industry standard for creative professionals, and while generative AI poses a threat, Adobe is investing in its own AI model, Firefly, to enhance its offerings [10]. - The market currently views the risks of AI for Adobe as outweighing the benefits, leading to a stock decline of over 40% from its all-time high [11]. - Adobe's strong customer base and high switching costs help retain users, as familiarity with its software is crucial for professionals in the industry [12]. - The integration of generative AI tools is expected to boost revenue per user and improve retention rates, with a reported 30% year-over-year increase in first-time subscribers [13]. - Management anticipates that revenue from AI products will more than double this year, contributing to a 12% growth in annual recurring revenue last quarter [14]. - Adobe's share buyback strategy, supported by steady free cash flow from subscription revenues, is expected to lead to consistent double-digit EPS growth over the next three years [15].

Core Insights - Nio's shares experienced a significant increase following the launch of its new affordable ES8 SUV, highlighting the competitive pricing strategies in the Chinese electric vehicle market [2][3] Company Summary - Nio's U.S.-listed shares rose by 9.27% to close at $5.54, while shares in Hong Kong increased by up to 10% in early trading [2] - The newly launched ES8 SUV is priced at 308,800 yuan ($43,000) under a battery subscription plan, which reduces initial costs and allows for battery upgrades through a monthly fee [2] - Deliveries of the ES8 are expected to commence in late September [2] Industry Context - The introduction of the ES8 is part of Nio's strategy to compete in a market where other manufacturers are offering similar features at lower prices [3] - Nio has historically focused on the high-end market but is now expanding its offerings with two new brands: Onvo, targeting the mass market, and Firefly, aimed at young urban consumers [3] - The stock surge is attributed to market expectations of strong new orders for the ES8 and the recently launched Onvo L90 [3]

Core Insights - NIO Inc. plans to expand its global presence by entering Singapore, Uzbekistan, and Costa Rica in 2025 and 2026, marking significant growth in international markets [1][10] - In Singapore, NIO will collaborate with Wearnes Automotive to launch the Firefly, its first right-hand drive compact premium EV, in 2026 [1][10] - The entry into Costa Rica will be through a partnership with Horizontes Cielo Azul Movilidad, the largest EV distributor in the country, representing NIO's first move into the Americas [2] - In Uzbekistan, NIO will partner with Abu Sahiy Motors, a local group with expertise in logistics and auto sales, to penetrate the Central Asian automotive market [3] - NIO's strategy involves collaborating with established local players to leverage their networks and expertise for effective market entry [4] Company Strategy - NIO is shifting from a direct-to-consumer sales model to a distributor partnership approach to enhance its global market penetration [5][10] - The company has already established multiple distribution partnerships across various countries since 2025 [5] Market Performance - NIO's stock has outperformed the Zacks Automotive-Foreign industry, with shares gaining 11.7% year-to-date compared to the industry's growth of 1.2% [8] Valuation and Estimates - NIO appears overvalued based on its price/sales ratio, trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.62, higher than the industry's 0.45 [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIO's EPS has seen slight revisions, with a decrease of one cent for 2025 and an increase of two cents for 2026 in the past 30 days [12]

Core Insights - Adobe's shares have declined 9% in the past month and 25% year to date, underperforming the broader tech sector and software industry [1][4] - The decline in share price is attributed to modest revenue growth prospects, stiff competition in the AI space, and a challenging macroeconomic environment [2][3] Financial Performance - Adobe's fiscal 2025 revenue outlook has been raised to between $23.5 billion and $23.6 billion, with non-GAAP earnings expected between $20.50 and $20.70 per share [17] - Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) increased 11% on a constant currency basis, while current RPO grew 10% in Q2 of fiscal 2025 [2] - Digital Media Annual Recurring Revenue is expected to grow 11% year over year, with segment revenues projected at $17.45 billion to $17.50 billion for Digital Media and $5.8 billion to $5.9 billion for Digital Experience [18] Competitive Landscape - Adobe's AI business is significantly smaller compared to competitors like Microsoft and Alphabet, which are leveraging AI for substantial revenue growth [3] - Adobe faces competition from Microsoft-backed OpenAI and DocuSign in the document services and e-signature domain [2][3] Product Development and Strategy - Adobe is expanding its AI portfolio with products like GenStudio and Firefly, aiming to enhance product adoption and meet a $250 million Annual Recurring Revenue target by the end of fiscal 2025 [11] - The company is integrating AI tools such as Acrobat AI Assistant and Adobe Express to improve user experience and streamline content creation [12][13] - Adobe's strategy focuses on providing a comprehensive AI-powered creative platform that addresses the needs of creative and marketing professionals [13][16] Valuation and Market Position - Adobe shares are considered overvalued with a Price/Book ratio of 12.36X compared to the sector's 10.75X [7] - Despite the valuation concerns, Adobe holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) and a Growth Score of B, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [20]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - Figma's core product is a cloud-based collaborative interface design tool that integrates the entire workflow from conception to delivery, addressing pain points in traditional design processes [3][5]. - Figma has a strong user base with 13 million monthly active users, 86% of whom are from small and medium-sized enterprises, and 70% of revenue comes from organizational and enterprise plans [3][36]. - The introduction of AI features in Figma is expected to enhance user engagement and increase subscription prices, with 2024 revenue projected at $749 million, a 48% year-over-year increase [3][59]. - The AI creative landscape is evolving, with Figma positioned to benefit from the commercialization of AI tools, which have already crossed the $100 million ARR threshold in various segments [3][78]. Summary by Sections 1. Figma Overview - Figma is a leading cloud-based collaborative design software, focusing on interface design and team collaboration, widely used in software development and UI/UX design [5][6]. - The company has experienced rapid growth, achieving $749 million in revenue for 2024, with a 48% year-over-year increase [3][59]. - Figma's user base includes 95% of the Fortune 500 companies, with a significant portion being non-professional designers [36]. 2. AI Creative Landscape - The report identifies three main types of players in the AI creative space: large model companies, creative software companies leveraging GenAI, and image/video communities with strong data and R&D capabilities [3][78]. - Figma and Canva target the creator market, while Adobe focuses on professional design, leading to different valuation metrics [3][88]. 3. A-Share and Hong Kong Stock Targets - The report mentions potential investment targets in the A-share and Hong Kong markets, including Meitu, Kuaishou, Hongsoft Technology, Wankong Technology, Visual China, and Danghong Technology [3][4]. 4. Financial Analysis - Figma's revenue growth is robust, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53% over four years, and a rolling 12-month revenue of $821 million [3][65]. - The company has a strong cash flow, with a free cash flow to revenue ratio of 28%, significantly higher than the SaaS industry median of 18% [3][65].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three undervalued stocks in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector: Taiwan Semiconductor, Adobe, and Alphabet, suggesting they present good investment opportunities despite market concerns [1]. Group 1: Company Performance and Positioning - Taiwan Semiconductor is the primary chip fabricator for leading tech companies like Nvidia and Apple, positioning it favorably in the AI race [3]. - The company reported a remarkable 44% revenue increase in the second quarter, exceeding expectations, and is projected to grow at nearly a 20% compound annual growth rate over the next five years [4]. - Adobe is recognized for its industry-standard graphics design tools, but faces concerns about being displaced by generative AI technologies [5]. - Despite these concerns, Adobe has invested in generative AI and developed its Firefly product, allowing it to remain competitive and relevant in the graphic design industry [6][9]. - Alphabet, the parent company of Google, faces similar fears regarding generative AI replacing Google Search; however, its entrenched user base and recent AI search features may help maintain its market share [10][11]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Comparison - Alphabet's stock trades at a significant discount compared to the broader market, with the S&P 500 trading at 23.8 times forward earnings, while Alphabet offers a reasonable price for its growth potential [12][14]. - Adobe is also considered cheap, trading at 18 times forward earnings, indicating potential for upside [14]. - Taiwan Semiconductor trades at 25 times forward earnings, which is a slight premium to the market, but its expected growth rate justifies this valuation, making it a bargain buy [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - NIO Inc. and Lucid Motors are pursuing different strategies in the electric vehicle (EV) market, with NIO targeting the mass market and Lucid focusing on luxury and performance [1][2]. Lucid Motors Overview - Lucid Motors produced 3,863 vehicles and delivered 3,309 in Q2 2025, showing year-over-year improvement but still missing Wall Street estimates [3] - The company has produced 6,075 vehicles in the first half of 2025, which is only a third of its 20,000-unit target for the year, raising concerns about demand [3][4] - Lucid's vehicles are priced above $70,000 for the Air sedan and just under $80,000 for the Gravity SUV, which may limit its market appeal as more affordable EVs enter the market [4] - Recent developments include compatibility with Tesla's Supercharger network, providing access to over 23,500 chargers, and a deal with Uber for 20,000 vehicles equipped with autonomous technology [5] - The Saudi government owns around 60% of Lucid and has committed to purchasing up to 100,000 vehicles over the next decade, but this reliance raises concerns about the company's independence [6] - Lucid ended Q1 2025 with $5.76 billion in liquidity but has a high annual cash burn of nearly $2 billion, leading to potential shareholder dilution [7] NIO Overview - NIO is expanding its ecosystem across the EV spectrum with a multi-brand strategy, including the ONVO brand for the mass market and the Firefly label for premium compact vehicles [8] - NIO sold 72,056 vehicles in Q2 2025, a 25.6% year-over-year increase, driven by ONVO and Firefly, despite a decline in core brand sales [9][11] - The company aims to double its total deliveries from 2024, which were 221,970, indicating a need for accelerated growth [11] - NIO's vehicle margin improved to 10.2% in Q1 2025, up from 9.2% a year earlier, with expectations for new models to deliver margins near or above 20% [12] - NIO's battery swap technology and a network of over 3,400 stations globally provide a competitive edge in the crowded EV market [13] Price Performance & Valuation - Year-to-date, NIO shares have risen 15%, outperforming Lucid's stock performance [16] - NIO trades at a lower forward price-to-sales ratio compared to Lucid, which appears overpriced given its current challenges [17] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lucid suggests year-over-year growth of 26.4% and 30% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [19] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIO indicates year-over-year growth of 31% and 59% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [20] Conclusion - NIO's broader market reach, improving margins, and multi-brand strategy position it more favorably compared to Lucid, which faces challenges with demand and financial stability [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - Nio is positioned to capitalize on the evolving electric vehicle (EV) market in China, with a focus on expanding its new brands and increasing deliveries amid a challenging competitive landscape [1][8]. Group 1: Nio's Strategy and Market Position - Nio has adopted a unique approach by investing heavily in battery swapping stations and launching two sub-brands, Onvo and Firefly, to enhance its delivery capabilities [1]. - The company aims to double its vehicle deliveries from 2024 to approximately 450,000 units, although it is currently slightly behind this target [9]. - Nio's management is also targeting to break even by the end of 2025, which is a significant challenge given the current market conditions [9]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - A study by AlixPartners indicates that only 15 out of 129 EV brands in China are expected to remain financially viable by 2030, with these brands projected to account for about 75% of the market [3][4]. - The Chinese NEV market appears strong, with a 30% increase in sales in June, making up 53% of overall new vehicle sales, and Chinese brands holding 71% of NEV sales [6]. - The intense competition and price wars in the market, driven by government subsidies, have created a challenging environment for maintaining market share and profitability [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current market conditions present an opportunity for Nio to enhance its marketing, incentives, and production efficiencies to drive its new brands forward [10]. - The latter part of 2025 will be crucial in determining Nio's position for potential consolidation in the Chinese EV industry [10].

Core Insights - Adobe's focus on integrating AI into its products is enhancing growth prospects, leading to an increase in full-year earnings guidance to $20.50-$20.70 per share, reflecting nearly 12% year-over-year growth [1][8] Financial Performance - Adobe reported a strong second-quarter fiscal 2025, with a 12% year-over-year increase in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) driven by the adoption of AI tools like Firefly and Acrobat AI Assistant [2][8] - The company generated $2.19 billion in operating cash flow and has $19.69 billion in remaining performance obligations, with 67% expected to be recognized within a year, supporting ongoing investments in innovation [3][8] Competitive Landscape - Autodesk is positioned well in the 3D design tools market with strong subscription growth, but its premium pricing limits mass-market appeal compared to Adobe's broader creative suite [4] - Microsoft holds a competitive edge with its cloud infrastructure and AI-powered productivity tools, offering deeper enterprise integration, which positions it as a comprehensive platform for digital transformation [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - Adobe shares have declined 18.2% year to date, contrasting with a 7.5% return in the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector and a 16.8% rise in the Computer-Software industry [6] - The current forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio for Adobe is 6.19X, slightly below the sector average of 6.6X, with a Value Score of C [9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Adobe's earnings is $20.63 per share for fiscal 2025, indicating a year-over-year growth of 12%, with a recent upward revision of 1.3% over the past 30 days [12]