Core Insights - The luxury goods industry is showing signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with Greater China emerging as a key driver for performance improvement [1][2] - Many brands have either narrowed revenue declines or achieved positive growth, indicating a gradual restoration of consumer confidence [2][3] Industry Overview - The luxury goods sector is experiencing a clear bottoming-out and recovery trend, particularly in the Greater China market, which is crucial for boosting market confidence [2] - Despite some brands still facing slight revenue declines year-on-year, the rate of decline is decreasing, and several companies have reported their first positive growth since the pandemic [2][3] Brand Performance - **LVMH**: Achieved a quarterly sales rebound for the first time in 2025, with Q3 total revenue at €18.2 billion, down 4% year-on-year but showing 1% organic growth, driven by strong performance in Greater China [3] - **Prada**: Reported a 9% increase in net revenue to €4.07 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 growth at 8%, highlighting significant improvement in mainland China sales [3] - **Hermès**: Q3 revenue grew by 9.6% to €3.9 billion, with improvements noted in the Chinese market, although slightly below market expectations [4] - **Kering**: Revenue declined by 10% to €3.42 billion in Q3, but the decline was less severe than previous quarters, indicating a recovery trend, particularly in the North American market [4] - **Burberry**: Reported a 3% growth in comparable store sales in Q2 FY26, indicating a recovery trajectory in Greater China, with adjusted operating profit turning from a loss to a profit [5][6] - **Moncler**: Experienced a 1% revenue decline to €616 million in Q3, reflecting challenges in brand strategy and market competition [6] Investment Recommendations - The luxury goods sector in the Asia-Pacific region is seeing a significant narrowing of sales declines, with some brands already showing year-on-year increases, suggesting a bottoming out of mid-to-high-end consumption [7] - The focus of the market has shifted from concerns about deep recession to validating the strength and sustainability of recovery, with the performance in China being a critical variable for future luxury goods performance [7] - Companies with strong brand power, clear strategies, and effective execution in the Chinese market are expected to better capitalize on the recovery, with recommendations to focus on LVMH, Prada, Hermès, and Burberry [7]

Core Insights - The luxury goods market in China and the US is experiencing a significant downturn, with China's market recording negative growth for six consecutive quarters, leading to a projected decline in global luxury sales by 2% to 5% by mid-2025 [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - After a period of explosive growth, luxury consumption in China has stagnated, prompting brands to seek rent reductions and operational support from shopping malls [2][3] - The shift in consumer preferences towards experience, emotion, and cultural relevance is causing a transformation in consumer profiles, making them more integrated and less distinct [2][10] - The luxury market is transitioning from a focus on material possession to experience and emotional consumption, indicating a profound change in retail dynamics [9][10] Group 2: Brand Performance - Major luxury brands are reporting disappointing financial results, with LVMH's revenue down 4% and net profit down over 20%, while Kering's net profit plummeted by 46% [4] - Brands are increasingly closing underperforming stores to concentrate resources on key locations, with Kering's closure plan rising from 50 to 80 stores [5][4] Group 3: Retail Strategies - Shopping malls are under pressure to support brands through rent reductions and marketing subsidies, as luxury brands demand more from mall operators [6][8] - Malls are adopting diverse promotional strategies, including immersive experiences and collaborations with artists, to attract consumers and enhance brand performance [7][11] - The market has shifted to a tenant-driven landscape, where the departure of a significant brand can trigger a chain reaction affecting other tenants and overall mall attractiveness [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The introduction of non-traditional luxury brands and experiential offerings is seen as a positive shift, helping malls attract a broader customer base and mitigate the impact of declining luxury sales [11] - However, this diversification poses challenges, as it may dilute the distinct positioning of high-end malls and lead to increased competition among similar offerings [11]

Core Insights - The luxury industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, particularly in China, where sales have turned positive for the first time this year, indicating renewed consumer interest in high-end fashion and experiences [1][3] - Demand in Europe and the United States remains solid, reflecting resilient local consumption despite a cautious global economic backdrop [2] - LVMH's modest growth in the third quarter of 2025 marks a potential turning point for the luxury sector, suggesting that the worst of the slowdown may be behind, although recovery will be gradual [3] Regional Performance - Mainland Chinese consumers are showing increased appetite for luxury goods, helping to offset earlier weaknesses and restore confidence in Asia's growth contribution [1] - There is a noticeable improvement in overall trends across Asia excluding Japan, indicating broader regional stabilization after months of uneven demand [2] Challenges Ahead - Despite returning to modest growth, LVMH faces several structural and cyclical challenges that may impact performance into 2026, including weaker demand for high-end products and rising operational costs [4] - Luxury brands have increased prices significantly between 2020 and 2023, with an average hike of 36%, which is now dampening demand among aspirational buyers [5] - Lowering prices is not a viable option for luxury brands, as it would erode brand prestige; instead, companies may maintain current pricing while waiting for income growth and easing inflation [6]

Core Insights - The definition of "luxury" has evolved beyond material possessions, encompassing a narrative system involving history, identity, art, and culture, with Western luxury brands dominating this space [1][2] - Chinese craft and art brands face challenges in establishing a strong narrative to compete in the global high-end market, despite having a rich historical background [3][4] Group 1: Western Luxury Brand Strategies - Western luxury brands like LVMH and Chanel leverage their historical craftsmanship and cultural narratives to build brand credibility and identity [2] - These brands often emphasize their long-standing traditions and artistic connections, which enhance their cultural capital and consumer appeal [2] Group 2: Challenges for Chinese Craft Brands - Chinese craft brands possess a long history but struggle with narrative construction, leading to a perception of their products as mere collectibles rather than luxury items [4][7] - The lack of a compelling story and brand identity hinders the ability of Chinese craft brands to penetrate the high-end market [4][7] Group 3: Building a New Luxury Narrative - To succeed, Chinese craft brands must draw inspiration from their cultural heritage while adopting contemporary design and global expressions to create a new luxury narrative [7][9] - Successful examples include Qeelin, which integrates traditional Chinese symbols with modern aesthetics, and brands like "观夏" that create a blend of traditional and modern experiences [8][9] Group 4: Globalization and Cultural Mission - The globalization of Chinese craft brands is not only a commercial endeavor but also a cultural mission, emphasizing the importance of storytelling in the luxury context [10] - Brands should utilize global communication mechanisms to transform local culture into an internationally understood luxury experience [9][10]

Core Insights - LVMH is facing an unprecedented crisis, with Bernard Arnault dropping from the world's richest person to the tenth position, amid multiple challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - LVMH's stock price has nearly halved since its peak in April 2023, resulting in a market value loss of approximately €221 billion, with a year-to-date decline of over 30% [3] - Arnault's personal wealth has plummeted from $231 billion in March 2024 to about $149 billion [3] - LVMH has lost its position among the top three most valuable companies in Europe, with Hermès now holding the title of France's most valuable company [3] Group 2: Market Challenges - The U.S. market poses significant challenges for LVMH, exacerbated by Trump's erratic tariff threats, including a 50% tariff on EU goods announced in May [3] - Despite Arnault's connections with Trump, no substantial assistance has been provided to mitigate these threats [3] Group 3: Business Model Issues - LVMH's diversified "grocery store" model is showing weaknesses, with over 75 brands becoming burdensome during tough times [3] - The forward P/E ratio for Hermès is approximately 50 times, while LVMH's is only about 20 times [3] - LVMH has begun selling underperforming brands and is considering further asset divestitures, including exploring the potential spin-off of Sephora [3] Group 4: Core Business Struggles - The Dior brand, managed by Arnault's eldest daughter Delphine, contributes 14% to the group's profits but has seen growth slow in recent quarters, facing criticism for unreasonable price increases and exploitation scandals [3] - The Moët Hennessy division is struggling in the U.S. due to inflation, losing ground to competitors, leading to a CEO replacement in February and the announcement of 1,200 layoffs in March, which is 13% of the workforce [3] Group 5: Governance Concerns - The succession issue is creating a "governance discount" for the group, as Arnault, aged 76, has extended the CEO age limit to 85, with all five children involved in the business but no clear successor identified, causing investor unease [4]