中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，2025年第三季度奢侈品行业显现触底回升态势，大中华区成为核心复 苏引擎，推动LVMH、Burberry等品牌业绩改善。多数品牌营收降幅收窄或实现正增长，消费者信心逐 步恢复，行业或已度过最困难时期，部分品牌进入复苏早期阶段。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 2025年Q3奢侈品行业展现出明确的触底回升态势 大中华市场的复苏已成为驱动业绩改善和提振市场信心的最关键主线。尽管部分奢侈品牌总营收同比仍 略有下滑，但下滑幅度收窄。多家公司实现疫情后时期的首次正增长，并成功扭亏为盈，奢侈品行业最 困难的时期可能已经过去。其中，大中华区的复苏引领以Burberry为代表，其大中华区最新季度可比销 售强劲增长3%，成功扭转上一季度的下滑态势。这种"前低后高"的季度走势在多家公司的财报中均有 体现，可能表明中国消费者信心和奢侈品消费需求正在稳步恢复。 奢侈品消费的积极信号同样在高奢商场的运营表现中得到印证。太古地产披露三季度运营数据，总体来 看其零售业务出租表现实现全面复苏，办公楼业务虽仍旧承压，但出租率稳中有升、租金调整幅度更为 平缓。 爱马仕：保持稳健，中国市场有所改善。2025年第三季度营 ...

Core Insights - The luxury goods market in China and the US is experiencing a significant downturn, with China's market recording negative growth for six consecutive quarters, leading to a projected decline in global luxury sales by 2% to 5% by mid-2025 [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - After a period of explosive growth, luxury consumption in China has stagnated, prompting brands to seek rent reductions and operational support from shopping malls [2][3] - The shift in consumer preferences towards experience, emotion, and cultural relevance is causing a transformation in consumer profiles, making them more integrated and less distinct [2][10] - The luxury market is transitioning from a focus on material possession to experience and emotional consumption, indicating a profound change in retail dynamics [9][10] Group 2: Brand Performance - Major luxury brands are reporting disappointing financial results, with LVMH's revenue down 4% and net profit down over 20%, while Kering's net profit plummeted by 46% [4] - Brands are increasingly closing underperforming stores to concentrate resources on key locations, with Kering's closure plan rising from 50 to 80 stores [5][4] Group 3: Retail Strategies - Shopping malls are under pressure to support brands through rent reductions and marketing subsidies, as luxury brands demand more from mall operators [6][8] - Malls are adopting diverse promotional strategies, including immersive experiences and collaborations with artists, to attract consumers and enhance brand performance [7][11] - The market has shifted to a tenant-driven landscape, where the departure of a significant brand can trigger a chain reaction affecting other tenants and overall mall attractiveness [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The introduction of non-traditional luxury brands and experiential offerings is seen as a positive shift, helping malls attract a broader customer base and mitigate the impact of declining luxury sales [11] - However, this diversification poses challenges, as it may dilute the distinct positioning of high-end malls and lead to increased competition among similar offerings [11]

The turnaround was largely driven by a gradual recovery in China, where sales turned positive again for the first time this year. According to Chief Financial Officer Cécile Cabanis, mainland Chinese consumers showed renewed appetite for high-end fashion and experiences, such as Louis Vuitton’s flagship ship-shaped boutique in Shanghai. While spending by travelling Chinese shoppers remained below last year’s levels, the domestic momentum helped offset earlier weakness and restored confidence in Asia’s contr ...

Core Insights - The definition of "luxury" has evolved beyond material possessions, encompassing a narrative system involving history, identity, art, and culture, with Western luxury brands dominating this space [1][2] - Chinese craft and art brands face challenges in establishing a strong narrative to compete in the global high-end market, despite having a rich historical background [3][4] Group 1: Western Luxury Brand Strategies - Western luxury brands like LVMH and Chanel leverage their historical craftsmanship and cultural narratives to build brand credibility and identity [2] - These brands often emphasize their long-standing traditions and artistic connections, which enhance their cultural capital and consumer appeal [2] Group 2: Challenges for Chinese Craft Brands - Chinese craft brands possess a long history but struggle with narrative construction, leading to a perception of their products as mere collectibles rather than luxury items [4][7] - The lack of a compelling story and brand identity hinders the ability of Chinese craft brands to penetrate the high-end market [4][7] Group 3: Building a New Luxury Narrative - To succeed, Chinese craft brands must draw inspiration from their cultural heritage while adopting contemporary design and global expressions to create a new luxury narrative [7][9] - Successful examples include Qeelin, which integrates traditional Chinese symbols with modern aesthetics, and brands like "观夏" that create a blend of traditional and modern experiences [8][9] Group 4: Globalization and Cultural Mission - The globalization of Chinese craft brands is not only a commercial endeavor but also a cultural mission, emphasizing the importance of storytelling in the luxury context [10] - Brands should utilize global communication mechanisms to transform local culture into an internationally understood luxury experience [9][10]

Core Insights - LVMH is facing an unprecedented crisis, with Bernard Arnault dropping from the world's richest person to the tenth position, amid multiple challenges [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - LVMH's stock price has nearly halved since its peak in April 2023, resulting in a market value loss of approximately €221 billion, with a year-to-date decline of over 30% [3] - Arnault's personal wealth has plummeted from $231 billion in March 2024 to about $149 billion [3] - LVMH has lost its position among the top three most valuable companies in Europe, with Hermès now holding the title of France's most valuable company [3] Group 2: Market Challenges - The U.S. market poses significant challenges for LVMH, exacerbated by Trump's erratic tariff threats, including a 50% tariff on EU goods announced in May [3] - Despite Arnault's connections with Trump, no substantial assistance has been provided to mitigate these threats [3] Group 3: Business Model Issues - LVMH's diversified "grocery store" model is showing weaknesses, with over 75 brands becoming burdensome during tough times [3] - The forward P/E ratio for Hermès is approximately 50 times, while LVMH's is only about 20 times [3] - LVMH has begun selling underperforming brands and is considering further asset divestitures, including exploring the potential spin-off of Sephora [3] Group 4: Core Business Struggles - The Dior brand, managed by Arnault's eldest daughter Delphine, contributes 14% to the group's profits but has seen growth slow in recent quarters, facing criticism for unreasonable price increases and exploitation scandals [3] - The Moët Hennessy division is struggling in the U.S. due to inflation, losing ground to competitors, leading to a CEO replacement in February and the announcement of 1,200 layoffs in March, which is 13% of the workforce [3] Group 5: Governance Concerns - The succession issue is creating a "governance discount" for the group, as Arnault, aged 76, has extended the CEO age limit to 85, with all five children involved in the business but no clear successor identified, causing investor unease [4]