Summary of Tencent Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Industry**: Online Gaming and Internet Services - **Market Cap**: HK$5,111 billion / US$651 billion [4][33] Key Points Growth and Performance - **Q2 Expectations**: Tencent's domestic grossing is expected to decline mid to high single digits YoY in Q2, following a solid performance in Q1 [2][3] - **Flagship Titles**: Games like HoK and PKE showed healthy growth, with Delta Force contributing significantly despite a high base from DnFm [2][3] - **Delta Force**: This title is gaining traction, with its daily active users (DAU) and time spent per user surpassing PKE, indicating strong growth potential [2][11][13] Industry Trends - **Resilience Against Macro Uncertainty**: The online gaming sector is less affected by macroeconomic fluctuations due to its unique and immersive experiences, leading to a quasi-monopoly for developers [3][10] - **Evergreen Titles**: Loyalty among Chinese gamers to top IP franchises is increasing, supported by Tencent and NetEase's investments in evergreen titles, which reduces the risk associated with new game launches [3][10] - **Multi-Platform Strategy**: Game operators are adopting multi-platform strategies to enhance user retention and tap into higher ARPU segments, exemplified by Delta Force and PKE [3][10] Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenues for Tencent are expected to grow from Rmb 660,257 million in 2024 to Rmb 736,731 million in 2025 [7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for 2025 is Rmb 27.29, with a growth trajectory leading to Rmb 33.64 by 2027 [5][7] - **Valuation**: Trading at 18x/16x 2025E/26E P/E, indicating potential long-term value [10] Future Catalysts - **Upcoming Releases**: Anticipated launches include Delta Force's console version in August, Valorant mobile, and the 10th anniversary of HoK in October, which could serve as growth catalysts [10][15] - **AI Integration**: The use of AI in gaming is enhancing user experience through improved content updates, matchmaking, and analytics, which supports user retention [9][10] Risks and Challenges - **Competitive Landscape**: The evolving competitive environment poses risks, including new business execution and rising costs associated with traffic acquisition and content [19][10] - **Regulatory Risks**: Ongoing regulatory scrutiny could impact operations and profitability [19][10] Investment Recommendation - **Rating**: Buy with a 12-month price target of HK$710.00, reflecting a forecasted stock return of 30% [4][17][33] Conclusion Tencent Holdings is positioned for growth despite macro uncertainties, driven by strong performance in evergreen games and a robust pipeline of upcoming titles. The company's multi-platform strategy and AI integration further enhance its competitive edge, although it must navigate regulatory and competitive challenges.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve operating revenue of 178.3 billion RMB in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11%, and an adjusted net profit of 60.2 billion RMB, reflecting a 5% increase [2] - The company continues to show healthy growth driven by new game releases and advancements in AI technology [8] - The report highlights the strong performance in gaming, advertising, and financial technology sectors, with specific growth rates projected for each segment [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: 609 billion RMB - 2024: 660.3 billion RMB - 2025E: 731.1 billion RMB - 2026E: 795.5 billion RMB - 2027E: 846.5 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 9.8% for 2023, 8.4% for 2024, 10.7% for 2025, 8.8% for 2026, and 6.4% for 2027 [4] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 157.7 billion RMB - 2024: 222.7 billion RMB - 2025E: 250.7 billion RMB - 2026E: 281.3 billion RMB - 2027E: 309.3 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for adjusted net profit are projected at 36.4% for 2023, 41.2% for 2024, 12.6% for 2025, 12.2% for 2026, and 10.0% for 2027 [4] Revenue Breakdown - The expected revenue breakdown for Q2 2025 includes: - Online gaming revenue growth of 14% year-on-year - Advertising revenue growth of 17% year-on-year - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue growth of 5% year-on-year [8] - The report emphasizes the contribution of new game titles and AI enhancements to revenue growth [8] Valuation - The target price for Tencent is set at 673 HKD, indicating an upside potential of 35.5% from the current price [8] - The SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation method estimates the total market value of Tencent at approximately 561.73 billion RMB [10]

如果说2003 年网络游戏被正式列入国家 863 计划后的十多年，是中国游戏厂商起步发展的十年；那 2015年游戏游艺设备生产和销售解禁、《关于改进移动游戏出版服务管理的通知》与《移动游戏内容管 理规范》宣布发布，则是中国游戏产业全面崛起的又一里程碑式节点。 在2015年后的十年间，中国游戏产业年营收经历了从1407亿元到3257亿元的翻倍增长，移动游戏大发 展、游戏出海开疆拓土、经典IP的文化与商业价值塑造，均可在2015年找到增长加速的原始动力。 在这样的背景下，南方财经全媒体集团数字娱乐课题组策划"中国游戏产业10年纪事"专题，从游戏出 海、产业趋势、企业成长、长青产品、明星游戏人等多个维度，总览中国游戏产业在十年间的发展历 程，展现中国游戏公司与从业者的专业能力、市场潜力和文化创造力，探讨产业在下一个10年的发展路 径。 编者按： 在本专题的首篇——出海篇，我们聚焦国产游戏如何在出海浪潮和自我升级的推动下，取得全球市场成 功，并探讨在市场格局趋于固化的大背景下，游戏出海如何实现长线运营，形成更稳定可持续的商业价 值与影响力。 南方财经记者 吴立洋 上海报道 2025年，有望成为中国游戏出海深入践行长期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q1 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with significant growth in gaming and advertising revenues, and a strong performance in financial technology and enterprise services [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent achieved operating revenue of 180 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 3% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders reached 61.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth, also exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3% [1] - The company has repurchased 21 billion HKD worth of shares as of May 14, 2025, with a commitment to repurchase no less than 80 billion HKD for the year [1] Group 2: Gaming Sector - Q1 2025 saw record highs in both domestic and international gaming revenues, with a 17% year-on-year increase in value-added services revenue [1] - Domestic game revenue reached over 40 billion yuan for the first time in a single quarter, with notable performances from long-standing titles such as "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire Mobile" [1] - New game releases, including "Delta Force" and "Operation Delta," contributed to growth, with "Operation Delta" achieving over 12 million daily active users in April [1] Group 3: Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue grew by 20% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with video accounts and search services driving this growth [2] - The advertising platform's AI capabilities, including image generation and digital human live streaming, are beginning to show positive effects [2] - Video account advertising revenue has seen over 60% year-on-year growth for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong performance [2] Group 4: Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, meeting expectations, with financial technology showing low single-digit growth [2] - The gross margin for financial technology and enterprise services reached a historical high of 50.3%, driven by improvements in payment and cloud business profitability [2] - AI-related revenue in the cloud business is growing rapidly, contributing to the overall performance of the financial technology and enterprise services segment [2] Group 5: Strategic Investments in AI - Tencent's capital expenditure for Q1 2025 was 27.5 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year, representing 15% of revenue [3] - Research and development expenses increased by 21% year-on-year to 18.9 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing investments in AI [3] - The company continues to enhance AI functionalities within WeChat, aiming for further improvements in user experience and service capabilities [3] Group 6: Future Outlook - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Tencent for 2025-2027 have been raised to 252.8 billion, 283.7 billion, and 311.4 billion yuan respectively [3] - The target price based on the SOTP valuation method is set at 694 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33% [3]