The dollar index (DXY00) dropped to a 2-week low on Tuesday and finished down by -0.79%.  The dollar retreated on Tuesday as President Trump's push to take over Greenland is reviving fears of trade confrontations between the US and its European allies, with little sign of de-escalation. Overnight, President Trump threatened steep tariffs on French champagne after French President Macron ruled out joining a US-led peace initiative.  There are also fears that rising tensions in Greenland could prompt Europe ...

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) on Friday gave up an early advance, fell to a 6-week low, and finished down by -0.08%. Friday's dollar strength weighed on the euro. The euro initially moved higher on Friday after ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said he's comfortable with the ECB's monetary policy settings.The dollar is also under pressure as the Fed boosts liquidity in the financial system, having begun purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills in mid-December. The dollar is also being undercut by concerns that President ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday rose by +0.11%.  The dollar recovered from early losses on Wednesday and moved higher after Dec ISM services index unexpectedly expanded at its fastest pace in 14 months.  The dollar also rose amid increased safe-haven demand after the US seized a Russian-flagged tanker for sanctions violations. The dollar initially moved lower on Wednesday on signs of weakness in the US labor market after the Dec ADP employment report showed private employers added fewer jobs than e ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve - The dollar index rose by +0.11% amid short covering ahead of the FOMC meeting, with expectations of a 25 bp cut in the federal funds target range [1][3] - The unexpected rise in October JOLTS job openings to 7.670 million, a 5-month high, indicates a stronger labor market, which is a hawkish factor for Fed policy [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - President Trump plans to announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, with Kevin Hassett seen as the likely candidate [2] - Hassett's nomination is viewed as bearish for the dollar due to his dovish stance and support for President Trump's approach to interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Euro and German Trade Data - The euro fell by -0.05% against the dollar, influenced by the dollar's strength and weaker-than-expected German trade news [4] - German October exports rose by +0.1% m/m, below expectations of +0.2% m/m, while imports fell by -1.2% m/m, weaker than the anticipated -0.5% m/m [5] Group 4: Japanese Yen Performance - The yen declined by +0.60% against the dollar, reaching a 2-week low due to comments from BOJ Governor Ueda regarding bond yields [6] - The stronger-than-expected US October JOLTS job openings report contributed to higher T-note yields, further pressuring the yen [6]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) fell slightly by -0.08% on Tuesday due to a decline in T-note yields and reduced liquidity demand for the dollar as stocks strengthened [1] - The swaps market indicates a 96% chance of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10, which is bearish for the dollar [1][5] - The OECD raised its US 2025 GDP forecast to +2.0% from +1.8%, which provided some support for the dollar [2][4] Group 2 - President Trump is expected to announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, with Kevin Hassett seen as a likely candidate, which could be bearish for the dollar due to his dovish stance [3] - The euro (EUR/USD) rose by +0.12% as it recovered from early losses, supported by a stronger-than-expected Eurozone CPI and the OECD's raised Eurozone GDP estimate [6]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.33% at a 2-week low, influenced by the strength of the yen and expectations of a Fed rate cut [1] - The US Nov ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell -0.5 to a 4-month low of 48.2, weaker than the expected increase to 49.0, indicating economic contraction [3] - The markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Leadership Speculation - The dollar is under pressure due to speculation regarding Kevin Hassett as a potential candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as US Fed Chair, which is seen as bearish for the dollar [2] - Hassett's nomination could raise concerns about Fed independence, as he supports President Trump's approach to interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Euro and ECB Policy - The EUR/USD is up by +0.32% at a 2-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and hawkish comments from ECB officials [4] - ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated that Eurozone interest rates are currently in a good place, indicating a divergence in central bank policies [4][5] - The Eurozone Nov S&P manufacturing PMI was revised downward by -0.1 to 49.6, marking the steepest pace of contraction in 5 months [5]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve - The dollar index fell to a 1.5-week low, finishing down by -0.08% due to increased expectations of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] - Swaps markets now indicate an 83% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10, up from 30% last week [3] Group 2: Potential Fed Chair Nomination - The dollar is under pressure following reports that Kevin Hassett is a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, which is viewed as bearish for the dollar due to Hassett's dovish stance [2] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Indicators - The euro rose by +0.05% as it recovered from early losses, supported by increased inflation expectations in the Eurozone and stronger-than-expected German CPI [4] - Eurozone's October 1-year inflation expectations increased to +2.8% from +2.7% in September, contrary to expectations of a decline [5] - German October retail sales unexpectedly fell by -0.3% month-over-month, which was weaker than the anticipated +0.2% increase [5] Group 4: Japanese Yen Performance - The yen rose by -0.12% amid better-than-expected Japanese industrial production and retail sales reports, with the November Tokyo CPI remaining above 2%, indicating a hawkish outlook for BOJ policy [6]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) increased by +0.25% due to the unexpected rise in the Nov Empire manufacturing general business conditions survey, reaching a 1-year high [1][2] - The Nov Empire manufacturing survey rose by +8.0 to a level of 18.7, significantly stronger than the expected decline to 5.8 [2] - The probability of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting decreased to 41% from 70% earlier in the month, influenced by comments from Fed presidents favoring steady interest rates [1][3] Group 2: Euro and ECB Insights - The EUR/USD pair declined by -0.30% as the euro faced pressure from a stronger dollar and comments from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos regarding elevated financial stability risks in the Eurozone [4][6] - The European Commission raised its 2025 Eurozone GDP forecast to +1.3% from +0.9%, while maintaining the inflation forecast at +2.1% [5] - The ECB is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle, contrasting with the Fed's expected rate cuts through the end of 2026 [5] Group 3: Japanese Economy and Yen Performance - The USD/JPY pair increased by +0.21% as the yen was pressured by news of a significant contraction in the Japanese economy in Q3, prompting discussions for an ambitious stimulus package [7] - An upward revision to Japan's September industrial production provided some support for the yen [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to a 17-year high of 1.737%, which is supportive for the yen [7]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) increased by +0.13% on Friday, recovering from a two-week low, driven by hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan against further Fed rate cuts [1][2][3] - The probability of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting decreased from 70% to 42% following statements from several Fed presidents favoring steady interest rates [2][3] - The euro (EUR/USD) fell by -0.12% on Friday, influenced by the dollar's strength, although losses were mitigated by an upward revision of Eurozone Q3 GDP to +1.4% y/y from +1.3% y/y [4][5] Group 2 - The Japanese yen (USD/JPY) experienced a slight decline of -0.01% on Friday, despite modest gains supported by Japan's September tertiary industry index showing its largest increase in four months and rising government bond yields [6]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.06% on Wednesday, supported by hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who favors keeping interest rates steady [1] - The dollar is under pressure due to signs of a potential resolution to the US government shutdown, with the Senate passing a temporary continuing resolution [2] - The markets are pricing in a 64% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the next meeting on December 9-10 [3] Group 2: Euro and ECB Commentary - The EUR/USD rose by +0.06% on Wednesday, driven by hawkish comments from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, who stated that interest rates are "absolutely" in a good place [4] - Central bank divergence is supportive of the euro, as the ECB is seen as largely finished with its rate-cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to cut rates several more times by the end of 2026 [4] - Schnabel indicated that there is positive momentum in the Eurozone economy and inflation risks are slightly tilted to the upside, with swaps pricing in a 4% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the December 18 policy meeting [5]