The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday rose by +0.11%.  The dollar moved higher on Tuesday amid short covering ahead of the 2-day FOMC meeting, which ends on Wednesday.  The dollar gained ground on Tuesday after the Oct JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.  The dollar's near-term upside is limited amid expectations that the Fed will cut the federal funds target range by 25 bp at the conclusion of the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting. President Trump said last that he w ...

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) fell slightly by -0.08% on Tuesday due to a decline in T-note yields and reduced liquidity demand for the dollar as stocks strengthened [1] - The swaps market indicates a 96% chance of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10, which is bearish for the dollar [1][5] - The OECD raised its US 2025 GDP forecast to +2.0% from +1.8%, which provided some support for the dollar [2][4] Group 2 - President Trump is expected to announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, with Kevin Hassett seen as a likely candidate, which could be bearish for the dollar due to his dovish stance [3] - The euro (EUR/USD) rose by +0.12% as it recovered from early losses, supported by a stronger-than-expected Eurozone CPI and the OECD's raised Eurozone GDP estimate [6]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.33% at a 2-week low, influenced by the strength of the yen and expectations of a Fed rate cut [1] - The US Nov ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell -0.5 to a 4-month low of 48.2, weaker than the expected increase to 49.0, indicating economic contraction [3] - The markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Leadership Speculation - The dollar is under pressure due to speculation regarding Kevin Hassett as a potential candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as US Fed Chair, which is seen as bearish for the dollar [2] - Hassett's nomination could raise concerns about Fed independence, as he supports President Trump's approach to interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Euro and ECB Policy - The EUR/USD is up by +0.32% at a 2-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and hawkish comments from ECB officials [4] - ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated that Eurozone interest rates are currently in a good place, indicating a divergence in central bank policies [4][5] - The Eurozone Nov S&P manufacturing PMI was revised downward by -0.1 to 49.6, marking the steepest pace of contraction in 5 months [5]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Federal Reserve - The dollar index fell to a 1.5-week low, finishing down by -0.08% due to increased expectations of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] - Swaps markets now indicate an 83% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10, up from 30% last week [3] Group 2: Potential Fed Chair Nomination - The dollar is under pressure following reports that Kevin Hassett is a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, which is viewed as bearish for the dollar due to Hassett's dovish stance [2] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Indicators - The euro rose by +0.05% as it recovered from early losses, supported by increased inflation expectations in the Eurozone and stronger-than-expected German CPI [4] - Eurozone's October 1-year inflation expectations increased to +2.8% from +2.7% in September, contrary to expectations of a decline [5] - German October retail sales unexpectedly fell by -0.3% month-over-month, which was weaker than the anticipated +0.2% increase [5] Group 4: Japanese Yen Performance - The yen rose by -0.12% amid better-than-expected Japanese industrial production and retail sales reports, with the November Tokyo CPI remaining above 2%, indicating a hawkish outlook for BOJ policy [6]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) increased by +0.25% due to the unexpected rise in the Nov Empire manufacturing general business conditions survey, reaching a 1-year high [1][2] - The Nov Empire manufacturing survey rose by +8.0 to a level of 18.7, significantly stronger than the expected decline to 5.8 [2] - The probability of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting decreased to 41% from 70% earlier in the month, influenced by comments from Fed presidents favoring steady interest rates [1][3] Group 2: Euro and ECB Insights - The EUR/USD pair declined by -0.30% as the euro faced pressure from a stronger dollar and comments from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos regarding elevated financial stability risks in the Eurozone [4][6] - The European Commission raised its 2025 Eurozone GDP forecast to +1.3% from +0.9%, while maintaining the inflation forecast at +2.1% [5] - The ECB is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle, contrasting with the Fed's expected rate cuts through the end of 2026 [5] Group 3: Japanese Economy and Yen Performance - The USD/JPY pair increased by +0.21% as the yen was pressured by news of a significant contraction in the Japanese economy in Q3, prompting discussions for an ambitious stimulus package [7] - An upward revision to Japan's September industrial production provided some support for the yen [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to a 17-year high of 1.737%, which is supportive for the yen [7]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) increased by +0.13% on Friday, recovering from a two-week low, driven by hawkish comments from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan against further Fed rate cuts [1][2][3] - The probability of a Fed rate cut at the next FOMC meeting decreased from 70% to 42% following statements from several Fed presidents favoring steady interest rates [2][3] - The euro (EUR/USD) fell by -0.12% on Friday, influenced by the dollar's strength, although losses were mitigated by an upward revision of Eurozone Q3 GDP to +1.4% y/y from +1.3% y/y [4][5] Group 2 - The Japanese yen (USD/JPY) experienced a slight decline of -0.01% on Friday, despite modest gains supported by Japan's September tertiary industry index showing its largest increase in four months and rising government bond yields [6]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.06% on Wednesday, supported by hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who favors keeping interest rates steady [1] - The dollar is under pressure due to signs of a potential resolution to the US government shutdown, with the Senate passing a temporary continuing resolution [2] - The markets are pricing in a 64% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the next meeting on December 9-10 [3] Group 2: Euro and ECB Commentary - The EUR/USD rose by +0.06% on Wednesday, driven by hawkish comments from ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, who stated that interest rates are "absolutely" in a good place [4] - Central bank divergence is supportive of the euro, as the ECB is seen as largely finished with its rate-cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to cut rates several more times by the end of 2026 [4] - Schnabel indicated that there is positive momentum in the Eurozone economy and inflation risks are slightly tilted to the upside, with swaps pricing in a 4% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the December 18 policy meeting [5]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index fell by -0.49% on Thursday, influenced by a report showing US job cuts surged by 175% year-on-year in October, marking the largest increase in 22 years [1][3] - Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the highest since the pandemic, with employers announcing the fewest hiring plans since 2011 [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicated a preference for no additional Fed rate cuts, supporting the dollar [2][4] - Goolsbee expressed unease about ongoing interest rate cuts due to a lack of inflation data during the government shutdown, while Hammack emphasized concerns about high inflation and the need for a mildly restrictive monetary policy [4] Currency Movements - The euro rose by +0.49% on Thursday, supported by dollar weakness and optimistic comments from ECB Vice President Guindos regarding Eurozone growth [5] - However, negative factors for the euro included an unexpected decline in Eurozone retail sales and lower-than-expected German industrial production for September [5]

Core Insights - The dollar index rose by +0.27%, reaching a 2.75-month high, supported by hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve presidents and stronger-than-expected economic data [1][3] - The ongoing US government shutdown poses a risk to the economy, potentially leading to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve if prolonged [2] - The markets are currently pricing in a 63% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in December, with an overall expectation of an 82 basis point cut by the end of 2026 [3] Economic Indicators - The October MNI Chicago PMI increased by +3.2 to 43.8, surpassing expectations of 42.3, indicating stronger economic momentum [3] - Eurozone economic indicators showed improvement, with the October core CPI and German September retail sales rising more than anticipated, providing support for the euro [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid opposed the recent rate cut, citing a balanced labor market and persistent inflation [3] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan expressed skepticism about further rate cuts unless there is clear evidence of falling inflation or a cooling labor market [3] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferred to maintain current interest rates to help control inflation [3]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) is trading slightly lower by -0.05% ahead of the 2-day FOMC meeting, which may result in a dovish outcome with potential hints of further rate cuts and an end to quantitative tightening [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is putting pressure on the dollar, with concerns that prolonged shutdowns could harm the US economy and lead to interest rate cuts by the Fed [1] - The markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations of an overall 115 basis point reduction by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2 - The dollar has underlying support from a +0.6 basis point rise in the 10-year T-note yield, as well as stronger-than-expected reports from the Richmond Fed and US consumer confidence [2] - The FOMC meeting will not release a Summary of Economic Projections, meaning no updates on the Fed's dot plot will be provided, but Fed Chair Powell will address the media post-meeting [4] - There is market anticipation for an update on the potential end of the Fed's quantitative tightening, which could positively impact stock and bond markets by increasing liquidity [5] Group 3 - The August FHFA US house price index rose +0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of a -0.1% decline, while the S&P CoreLogic CS US 20-city house index rose +0.19% month-over-month and +1.58% year-over-year, also surpassing expectations [6] - The October Richmond Fed manufacturing index increased by 13 points to -4, which was stronger than market expectations of a 5-point rise to -12 [6]