Economic Indicators - Pre-market futures are positive, with major indices showing gains: Dow +77 points, S&P 500 +18, Nasdaq +107 points, and Russell 2000 flat after a +2% increase the previous day [1] - Weekly Jobless Claims reported at 216K, below expectations of 225K, indicating a resilient job market [4][3] - Continuing Claims total 1.960 million, slightly up from the previous week's revised figure, suggesting stability in longer-term jobless claims [4][5] - Durable Goods Orders increased by 0.5%, aligning with expectations, while orders excluding transportation rose by 0.6% [6] Company Performance - Deere & Co. reported fiscal Q4 results, missing earnings estimates by 3 cents at $3.93 per share, marking the first earnings miss in three years, although revenues exceeded expectations by 5.92% at $10.58 billion [8] - Shares of Deere are trading down 3.5% following the earnings report, despite a year-to-date gain of 17.6% [8] Consumer Behavior - An estimated 31 million people are expected to travel for Thanksgiving, indicating strong consumer spending on travel despite the economic climate [9]

Market Overview - Stocks are expected to move lower in early trading, extending the pullback seen in the previous sessions, with S&P 500 futures down by 0.5 percent [1] - Concerns regarding the near-term outlook for the artificial intelligence sector may continue to impact market performance [1] Company Performance - Nvidia (NVDA) and Oracle (ORCL) are leading the market decline, with pre-market trading showing a slump of 1.2 percent for Nvidia and 3.5 percent for Oracle [2] - The AI sector is facing downward pressure despite the release of positive U.S. economic data [2] Economic Data - Initial jobless claims fell to 218,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week's revised level of 232,000, contrary to economists' expectations of an increase [3] - Durable goods orders surged by 2.9 percent in August after a revised decline of 2.7 percent in July, defying expectations of a 0.5 percent decrease [4] Upcoming Reports - The Commerce Department is set to release a report on personal income and spending for August, which includes key readings on consumer price inflation [5] - A report on existing home sales for August is also anticipated, with expectations of a 1.3 percent decrease to an annual rate of 3.96 million [6] Stock Market Performance - Major averages finished lower, with the Dow down by 171.50 points (0.4 percent), the Nasdaq down by 75.62 points (0.3 percent), and the S&P 500 down by 18.95 points (0.3 percent) [7] - Asian stock markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index up by 0.3 percent, while European markets moved to the downside, with the German DAX Index down by 1.0 percent [8][9] Commodities and Currency - Crude oil futures fell by $0.42 to $64.57 a barrel, while gold futures increased by $3.60 to $3,771.70 an ounce [10] - The U.S. dollar is trading at 149.19 yen, up from 148.90 yen, and valued at $1.1701 against the euro, down from $1.1738 [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **US Economics** sector, specifically focusing on **durable goods orders** and **manufacturing activity**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Durable Goods Orders Decline**: Durable goods orders fell by **6.3% MoM** in April, which was a smaller decline than the consensus expectation of **-7.8%** but aligned with Citi's estimate of **-6.1%**. This decline was primarily due to weakness in transportation goods orders, while durable goods orders excluding transportation saw a modest increase of **0.2%** after a contraction in March [3][6][4]. 2. **Core Capital Goods Orders**: Core capital goods orders (nondefense excluding aircraft) experienced a significant decline of **1.3% MoM**, with shipments of core capital goods falling slightly by **0.1%**. However, shipments of nondefense capital goods including aircraft rose by **3.5%**, indicating some support for business equipment investment in GDP [4][6][7]. 3. **Impact of Tariffs**: The call highlighted that strong aircraft orders in March may have been a result of buyers locking in prices before anticipated tariff-related increases. The expectation is that tariffs will continue to weigh on manufacturing activity and business investment in GDP into the second half of the year [1][5][6]. 4. **Volatility in Manufacturing Activity**: There is an expectation of continued volatility in manufacturing activity data due to tariff delays, which may lead to more front-loading of activity in the coming months. However, the overall sentiment is that uncertainty surrounding tariffs will negatively impact manufacturing [5][6]. 5. **Weakness in Orders**: The decline in core capital goods orders is seen as a proxy for underlying investment demand. Continued weakness in these orders is expected to lead to a further pullback in shipments in the coming months, which would negatively affect business equipment investment in GDP [7][4]. Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes the potential conflict of interest due to Citi Research's business relationships with companies covered in its reports, advising investors to consider this when making investment decisions [2][13]. - The analysts responsible for the report certify that their views accurately reflect their personal opinions and were prepared independently [12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the current state of the US durable goods orders and the implications for the manufacturing sector.