当蛋鸡养殖进入利润的下行周期的时候，市场通常将形成悲观预期一致化的特征，并表现为鸡蛋期货价 格跌向养殖现金成本，目前鸡蛋期货价格已经跌破3000元每500千克，且合约持仓总量一度突破100万 手，这也让研究蛋鸡养殖利润周期的意义显著化。 在研究鸡蛋期货11年之后，我们期待重新回顾所习得的产业知识，在这个百万持仓兑现的时刻。在下行 周期中，价格也势必反作用于产业决策，在讨论目前蛋鸡行业周期的节奏上我们初步总结了以下的研究 跟踪方法： 1、在过去15年的时间里，蛋鸡养殖共出现了7轮养殖周期，每个周期平均2-2.5年，其中利润周期略高于 亏损周期，但最近一轮存在例外从2021年4月到2025年1月，利润周期长达45个月，这在过往非常罕见， 也暗示本轮的利润去化进程或与往年有较大差异。 2、在亏损初期，养殖主体会首先在购买鸡苗的数量选择和淘汰老鸡的时间选择上表达其意愿，进而很自 觉地我们用种鸡场的鸡苗销售量和产业的淘鸡日龄来跟踪行业的供给侧去化的决心，考虑到数据的高频 有效性，淘鸡价格和鸡苗价格有很强的意义。 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 王旭军 审核 | 浦电路交易员 人们有一种倾向，将好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic agricultural futures market on May 16 showed mixed performance among various agricultural products, with notable price movements in live pigs, apples, red dates, and eggs [1] Price Movements - The main live pig futures fell by 1.12%, closing at 13,700.00 CNY/ton [1] - Apple futures increased by 0.96%, closing at 7,811.00 CNY/ton [1] - Red date futures decreased by 0.38%, closing at 9,125.00 CNY/ton [1] - Egg futures also fell by 0.38%, closing at 2,891.00 CNY/500 kg [1] Opening and Closing Prices - Egg opening price was 2,886.00 CNY, previous close was 2,885.00 CNY, and last settlement was 2,902.00 CNY [1] - Live pig opening price was 13,780.00 CNY, previous close was 13,780.00 CNY, and last settlement was 13,855.00 CNY [1] - Red date opening price was 9,115.00 CNY, previous close was 9,145.00 CNY, and last settlement was 9,160.00 CNY [1] - Apple opening price was 7,726.00 CNY, previous close was 7,730.00 CNY, and last settlement was 7,737.00 CNY [1] Basis Data - As of May 15, there was a "backwardation" phenomenon in the contracts for apples, red dates, eggs, and live pigs, indicating that spot prices were higher than futures prices [1] - For apples, the spot price was 9,100 CNY, futures price was 7,730 CNY, with a basis of 1,370 CNY and a basis rate of 15.05% [1] - For red dates, the spot price was 9,200 CNY, futures price was 9,145 CNY, with a basis of 55 CNY and a basis rate of 0.60% [1] - For eggs, the spot price was 3,375 CNY, futures price was 3,013 CNY, with a basis of 362 CNY and a basis rate of 10.73% [1] - For live pigs, the spot price was 14,680 CNY, futures price was 13,855 CNY, with a basis of 825 CNY and a basis rate of 5.62% [1]