ab 3 December 2025 Global Research Global Battery Supply Chain Flattish EV; Higher BESS 2030 Global battery installation 3.8 TWh We revise 2025-30E global battery demand up 1-11%. A positive 4-37% BESS upward revision nets against a -2% to 3% revision for EV battery. In 2030 we estimate BESS (1.19 TWh) will account for 31% of total battery demand. BESS continues to see momentum with global grid-scale installations rising 29% YoY in October. On national policy tailwind and local level capacity compensation, ...

Core Insights - Toyota Motor has postponed its planned electric vehicle (EV) battery factory in Fukuoka prefecture for the second time due to softer EV demand, with the project now pushed back from an original 2028 start date [1][2] - The company is reviewing the project and may redirect some capacity at the site to vehicle or component production [2] - Toyota's global EV sales forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026 has been reduced to 277,000 units, which is 10% lower than its previous projection [3] Group 1: Project Delays and Adjustments - The planned EV battery factory in Fukuoka has been deferred as Toyota reassesses the project in light of declining EV demand [1] - The company acquired land worth approximately Y6 billion ($39 million) in an industrial park, with plans to meet construction obligations within three years [2] - A location agreement with the prefecture was intended for April but has been delayed until autumn due to the weakening demand for EVs [2] Group 2: Sales Forecast and Market Strategy - Toyota's forecast for global EV sales, including Lexus, has been adjusted to 277,000 units for the fiscal year ending March 2026, down from earlier estimates [3] - The automaker is considering revising its target of 1.5 million global EV sales by 2026 [3] - In response to stronger EV uptake in China, Toyota is increasing its development and sales efforts in that market, launching a lower-priced model in March [3] Group 3: Regional Performance and Industry Trends - Overall sales in China for Toyota declined to 860,000 vehicles between April and September last year but recovered to 910,000 in the same period of 2025 [4] - The company's EV strategy is being tailored by region, with a Lexus plant in Shanghai set to begin operations in 2027 [4] - Other automakers, such as Nissan and Honda, are also revisiting their battery investment plans amid slower EV sales [5]

Group 1 - Hyundai Motor Group's executive chairman, Chung Euisun, visited the US to support the South Korean government's efforts for better access to the US market [1] - A previous mission in August did not alter the US decision to impose a 25% import duty on South Korean imports, while Japan and the EU face lower duties of 15% and the UK at 10% [2] - Hyundai Motor and Kia Corporation, along with GM Korea, exported approximately 1.6 million vehicles to the US last year, valued at around US$ 38 billion [3] Group 2 - Despite challenging trade conditions, Hyundai Motor Group's US sales rose over 10% to 1.37 million vehicles in the first nine months of 2025, while imports from South Korea decreased by nearly 7% [4] - Key issues in the South Korea-US trade negotiations include US access to South Korean markets and the commitment to invest US$ 350 billion in US manufacturing, with only US$ 150-200 billion currently committed [5] - Hyundai Motor Group plans to increase its US investments from US$ 21 billion to US$ 26 billion, including expanding its Savannah plant's capacity to 500,000 vehicles per year by 2028 [6] Group 3 - A raid by US immigration authorities on the construction site of Hyundai's EV battery manufacturing joint venture with LG Energy Solution is expected to delay the investment completion by at least three months [7]

Group 1: China's Industrial Policies and Market Impact - China is implementing new export controls on technologies essential for electric vehicle (EV) battery production and rare-earth materials, requiring government approvals for related exports, aimed at protecting intellectual property and maintaining strategic advantages [3] - Tesla is viewed as the top U.S. automaker positioned to navigate China's rare-earth restrictions due to its significant manufacturing presence in Shanghai, which provides insulation from potential supply constraints [4] Group 2: Hong Kong's Financial Developments - The offshore RMB overnight HIBOR has surged by 107 basis points to 2.45182%, indicating tightening liquidity in the offshore yuan market, marking its highest level since April 7 [5] - HashKey Group, operator of Hong Kong's largest licensed crypto exchange, has filed for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) aiming to raise up to $500 million, reflecting the evolving regulatory environment in Hong Kong that supports crypto asset innovation [6] Group 3: Chinese Tech Sector Performance - Baidu's shares have declined over 5%, contributing to a broader drop in Chinese ADRs, as the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2%, indicating mixed market performance and profit-taking after a strong rally [7] - JD Logistics is acquiring a 36.43% stake in Kuayue-Express for up to $892 million, enhancing its on-demand delivery capabilities and competitiveness in the express logistics sector [9] Group 4: Commodity Markets and Consumer Demand - Iron ore prices have risen due to restocking at Chinese steel mills, but profit margins are under pressure from high coke prices and potential trade restrictions on steel [10] - Demand for China's baijiu is slow to recover, with a 20% year-on-year decline in holiday sell-through during the recent Golden Week, indicating challenges in the consumer market [11] Group 5: Taiwan's Defense Strategy - Taiwan is accelerating AI-powered defense upgrades and increasing military spending to counter threats from China, with plans to enhance its air defense system and develop a "Smart Defence Combat System" [12][13] - The government aims to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2030, up from a proposed 3.32% for the next year, amidst U.S. pressure for Taiwan to bolster its defense capabilities [13]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic partnership between Danantara Indonesia, the Indonesia Investment Authority (INA), and Eramet aims to establish a sustainable and integrated electric vehicle (EV) battery raw materials ecosystem in Indonesia, enhancing the country's position in the global nickel supply chain [3][4][5]. Group 1: Partnership Details - A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed to explore the establishment of a strategic investment platform in the nickel sector, covering both upstream and downstream operations [1][3]. - The signing ceremony was attended by Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and French President Emmanuel Macron, highlighting the significance of the partnership [2]. Group 2: Objectives and Goals - The partnership aims to conduct a preliminary assessment to identify suitable projects that maximize the potential of Indonesia's national EV ecosystem and prepare a roadmap for future collaboration [3]. - The collaboration emphasizes adherence to strict international standards in asset management, prioritizing efficiency and economic value [3][4]. Group 3: Contributions and Expertise - Danantara Indonesia and INA will manage long-term financing to support investment development, while Eramet will provide technical expertise and experience in large-scale mining projects [4][5]. - Eramet has been active in Indonesia since 2006, contributing to the development of the country's largest nickel deposit and supporting sustainable development initiatives [8][9]. Group 4: Strategic Importance - The partnership is seen as a crucial step in strengthening Indonesia's critical minerals supply chain, particularly in the nickel sector, aligning with INA's investment focus [6][7]. - The collaboration aims to attract high-quality investments into Indonesia's strategic sectors, combining technical excellence with long-term financing structures [7].