KBC Securities and Van Lanschot Kempen Investment Banking announce joint venture in equities Combination will be a leading equities broker in the Benelux and pan-European specialist in real estate and life sciences Attractive value proposition for clients based on expanded stock coverage, enhanced liquidity and increased placing power in core markets and sectors Joint venture to operate under its own license and equal ownership of KBC Securities and Van Lanschot KempenJoint venture expected to start opera ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains its investment recommendations for the Asia EM Equity Strategy despite recent geopolitical events [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights Asia's vulnerability to oil price spikes, particularly following Israel's military actions against Iran, which have led to a rise in Brent oil prices to US$75 per barrel [2]. - Iran's oil exports, ranging from 1.4 million to 1.7 million barrels per day, predominantly reach Asian markets, exacerbating the region's trade deficits [3]. - Countries most affected by oil price increases relative to GDP include Thailand (7.2%), Korea (4.4%), Taiwan (4.1%), and India (3.1%) [3]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Trade Deficits - Thailand has the highest oil and gas trade deficit at 7.2% of GDP, followed by Korea at 4.4%, Taiwan at 4.1%, and India at 3.1% [3]. - The overall commodity trade balance for Asia shows a deficit of 3.5%, with significant variations across countries [3]. Current Account Balance - The current account balance for Thailand is -1.0%, while India shows a more favorable position at 14.7% [3]. - The report indicates that the current account balance is a critical metric for assessing economic stability in the context of rising oil prices [3].

Group 1 - Moretus Research provides high-quality equity research focused on U.S. public markets, aiming to deliver clarity, conviction, and alpha for serious investors [1] - The research framework identifies companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation, emphasizing a structured and repeatable approach [1] - Valuation methods are based on sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure, prioritizing comparability, simplicity, and relevance [1] Group 2 - Research coverage focuses on underappreciated companies experiencing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where disciplined analysis can yield asymmetric returns [1] - Moretus Research aims to elevate the standard for independent investment research by providing professional-grade insights and actionable valuation [1]

Core Insights - Mizuho Americas has been awarded the 2025 Global Markets Choice Awards for Best in CLOs and Best in Equity Research, highlighting its strong performance in these sectors [1][4]. CLO Market Performance - Launched in 2022, Mizuho Americas' CLO team has quickly established itself as a top player in the CLO market, achieving a top five ranking in broadly syndicated CLO new issues by volume [2]. - The team arranged 37 deals in 2024 and 24 deals year-to-date in 2025, receiving recognition for its strong execution from CLO managers and investors [2]. - Mizuho's connections with Japanese clients, a significant investor region for CLO AAA, have contributed to its success and innovation in the market [2]. Equity Research Advancements - Mizuho Americas' Equity Research has been recognized for its advancements, which have been crucial for the success of its Equity and Banking franchises [3]. - The award for Best in Equity Research reflects the firm's ability to generate alpha through differentiated research for investor and corporate clients [4]. - Bill Featherson's leadership has significantly elevated the US Equity Research product since joining Mizuho, enhancing its research capabilities [4]. Company Overview - Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. is one of the largest financial institutions globally, with total assets of approximately $2 trillion [5]. - The company employs around 65,000 professionals worldwide, providing comprehensive financial services across 36 countries and 850 offices [5][6]. - Mizuho Americas offers a full spectrum of client-driven solutions, including strategic advisory, capital markets, corporate banking, and fixed income and equities sales & trading [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry or specific assets [4]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 experienced its best May performance since 1990, indicating strong market sentiment [9]. - US goods imports saw a significant drop of 20% in a month, marking the largest decline ever recorded [9]. - Bloomberg's Fedspeak index has reached its most dovish level in over four years, suggesting a shift in monetary policy outlook [9]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500 forecasted returns range from -15.8% (bear case) to 23.1% (bull case) with a base case return of 19% [4]. - MSCI Europe shows a bear case of -22.8% and a bull case of 23.6%, with a base case return of 16% [4]. - Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) forecasted returns range from -22.1% to 20.2%, with a base case return of 16% [4]. Foreign Exchange - The JPY is forecasted to depreciate to 144 in the bear case and appreciate to 130 in the bull case, with a base case of 143 [4]. - The EUR is expected to range from 1.13 (bear) to 1.25 (bull), with a base case of 1.14 [4]. Rates - The 10-year UST yield is forecasted to range from 4.40% (bear) to 3.45% (bull), with a base case of 4.00% [4]. - UK 10-year yields are expected to range from 4.65% (bear) to 3.95% (bull), with a base case of 4.35% [4]. Credit - US Investment Grade (IG) credit spreads are forecasted to tighten from 88 bps (bear) to 90 bps (bull), with a base case of 130 bps [4]. - US High Yield (HY) spreads are expected to range from 315 bps (bear) to 335 bps (bull), with a base case of 475 bps [4]. Commodities - Brent crude oil is forecasted to range from $64 (bear) to $55 (bull), with a base case of $45 [4]. - Gold prices are expected to range from $3,278 (bear) to $3,250 (bull), with a base case of $2,760 [4]. Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) - The MSI aggregates survey positioning, volatility, and momentum data to quantify market stress and sentiment, indicating a current negative sentiment [50][55]. Cross-Asset Positioning - In US equities, asset managers are net long at 27%, while hedge funds are net short at -7% [63]. - In commodities, positioning shows 25% net long in gold, while 7% net long in Brent [63]. Cross-Asset Correlations - The current global correlation index stands at 43%, indicating a slight increase from the previous month [72]. - Equity correlations are at 70%, while credit correlations are at 80%, reflecting strong interdependencies [72]. ETF Flows - US equities saw a net inflow of $0.7 billion over the past week, while world equities had a net inflow of $0.8 billion [37]. - Bond markets experienced a significant inflow of $15.1 billion, indicating strong demand for fixed income [37]. Volatility Monitor - The implied volatility for the S&P 500 is currently at 17.0%, reflecting market expectations of future volatility [96]. - Major equity markets show varying levels of volatility, with the Nasdaq at 21.2% [96]. Overall Market Performance - Major developed market equity indices posted gains, with TOPIX up 2.4% and NASDAQ up 2% [98]. - Commodity markets generally posted losses, with copper down 3.3% [98].