Investment Rating - The report maintains its investment recommendations for the Asia EM Equity Strategy despite recent geopolitical events [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights Asia's vulnerability to oil price spikes, particularly following Israel's military actions against Iran, which have led to a rise in Brent oil prices to US$75 per barrel [2]. - Iran's oil exports, ranging from 1.4 million to 1.7 million barrels per day, predominantly reach Asian markets, exacerbating the region's trade deficits [3]. - Countries most affected by oil price increases relative to GDP include Thailand (7.2%), Korea (4.4%), Taiwan (4.1%), and India (3.1%) [3]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Trade Deficits - Thailand has the highest oil and gas trade deficit at 7.2% of GDP, followed by Korea at 4.4%, Taiwan at 4.1%, and India at 3.1% [3]. - The overall commodity trade balance for Asia shows a deficit of 3.5%, with significant variations across countries [3]. Current Account Balance - The current account balance for Thailand is -1.0%, while India shows a more favorable position at 14.7% [3]. - The report indicates that the current account balance is a critical metric for assessing economic stability in the context of rising oil prices [3].

Group 1 - Moretus Research provides high-quality equity research focused on U.S. public markets, aiming to deliver clarity, conviction, and alpha for serious investors [1] - The research framework identifies companies with durable business models, mispriced cash flow potential, and intelligent capital allocation, emphasizing a structured and repeatable approach [1] - Valuation methods are based on sector-relevant multiples tailored to each company's business model and capital structure, prioritizing comparability, simplicity, and relevance [1] Group 2 - Research coverage focuses on underappreciated companies experiencing structural changes or temporary dislocations, where disciplined analysis can yield asymmetric returns [1] - Moretus Research aims to elevate the standard for independent investment research by providing professional-grade insights and actionable valuation [1]

Core Insights - Mizuho Americas has been awarded the 2025 Global Markets Choice Awards for Best in CLOs and Best in Equity Research, highlighting its strong performance in these sectors [1][4]. CLO Market Performance - Launched in 2022, Mizuho Americas' CLO team has quickly established itself as a top player in the CLO market, achieving a top five ranking in broadly syndicated CLO new issues by volume [2]. - The team arranged 37 deals in 2024 and 24 deals year-to-date in 2025, receiving recognition for its strong execution from CLO managers and investors [2]. - Mizuho's connections with Japanese clients, a significant investor region for CLO AAA, have contributed to its success and innovation in the market [2]. Equity Research Advancements - Mizuho Americas' Equity Research has been recognized for its advancements, which have been crucial for the success of its Equity and Banking franchises [3]. - The award for Best in Equity Research reflects the firm's ability to generate alpha through differentiated research for investor and corporate clients [4]. - Bill Featherson's leadership has significantly elevated the US Equity Research product since joining Mizuho, enhancing its research capabilities [4]. Company Overview - Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. is one of the largest financial institutions globally, with total assets of approximately $2 trillion [5]. - The company employs around 65,000 professionals worldwide, providing comprehensive financial services across 36 countries and 850 offices [5][6]. - Mizuho Americas offers a full spectrum of client-driven solutions, including strategic advisory, capital markets, corporate banking, and fixed income and equities sales & trading [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry or specific assets [4]. Core Insights - The S&P 500 experienced its best May performance since 1990, indicating strong market sentiment [9]. - US goods imports saw a significant drop of 20% in a month, marking the largest decline ever recorded [9]. - Bloomberg's Fedspeak index has reached its most dovish level in over four years, suggesting a shift in monetary policy outlook [9]. Summary by Sections Equities - S&P 500 forecasted returns range from -15.8% (bear case) to 23.1% (bull case) with a base case return of 19% [4]. - MSCI Europe shows a bear case of -22.8% and a bull case of 23.6%, with a base case return of 16% [4]. - Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) forecasted returns range from -22.1% to 20.2%, with a base case return of 16% [4]. Foreign Exchange - The JPY is forecasted to depreciate to 144 in the bear case and appreciate to 130 in the bull case, with a base case of 143 [4]. - The EUR is expected to range from 1.13 (bear) to 1.25 (bull), with a base case of 1.14 [4]. Rates - The 10-year UST yield is forecasted to range from 4.40% (bear) to 3.45% (bull), with a base case of 4.00% [4]. - UK 10-year yields are expected to range from 4.65% (bear) to 3.95% (bull), with a base case of 4.35% [4]. Credit - US Investment Grade (IG) credit spreads are forecasted to tighten from 88 bps (bear) to 90 bps (bull), with a base case of 130 bps [4]. - US High Yield (HY) spreads are expected to range from 315 bps (bear) to 335 bps (bull), with a base case of 475 bps [4]. Commodities - Brent crude oil is forecasted to range from $64 (bear) to $55 (bull), with a base case of $45 [4]. - Gold prices are expected to range from $3,278 (bear) to $3,250 (bull), with a base case of $2,760 [4]. Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) - The MSI aggregates survey positioning, volatility, and momentum data to quantify market stress and sentiment, indicating a current negative sentiment [50][55]. Cross-Asset Positioning - In US equities, asset managers are net long at 27%, while hedge funds are net short at -7% [63]. - In commodities, positioning shows 25% net long in gold, while 7% net long in Brent [63]. Cross-Asset Correlations - The current global correlation index stands at 43%, indicating a slight increase from the previous month [72]. - Equity correlations are at 70%, while credit correlations are at 80%, reflecting strong interdependencies [72]. ETF Flows - US equities saw a net inflow of $0.7 billion over the past week, while world equities had a net inflow of $0.8 billion [37]. - Bond markets experienced a significant inflow of $15.1 billion, indicating strong demand for fixed income [37]. Volatility Monitor - The implied volatility for the S&P 500 is currently at 17.0%, reflecting market expectations of future volatility [96]. - Major equity markets show varying levels of volatility, with the Nasdaq at 21.2% [96]. Overall Market Performance - Major developed market equity indices posted gains, with TOPIX up 2.4% and NASDAQ up 2% [98]. - Commodity markets generally posted losses, with copper down 3.3% [98].