Etsy (NasdaqGS:ETSY) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 29, 2025 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsLanny Baker - CFOYgal Arounian - Director of Internet Equity ResearchEric Sheridan - Partner and Managing DirectorRobert Coolbrith - VP of Internet Equity ResearchBryan Smilek - Equity Research AssociateDeb Wasser - VP of Investor RelationsKruti Patel Goyal - President and Chief Growth OfficerYoussef Squali - Managing Director and Head of Internet and Digital Media Research GroupSteve Forbes - Senior Managing Directo ...

Core Insights - Etsy's third quarter consolidated results exceeded expectations across key financial metrics, with Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) for Etsy and Depop showing year-over-year growth [2][5] - The Etsy marketplace's GMS improved sequentially, driven by customer-centric strategies and enhanced AI-powered features [2][5] - Depop continued to gain traction in the U.S. resale clothing market, contributing to overall GMS growth [2][5] Financial Performance - Third quarter consolidated GMS was $2.7 billion, up 0.9% year-over-year excluding Reverb, with Etsy marketplace GMS improving approximately 300 basis points sequentially [5][7] - Revenue for the third quarter was $678 million, reflecting a 2.4% increase year-over-year, while the revenue take rate increased to 24.9% [6][7] - Adjusted EBITDA was $172 million, representing a consolidated margin of 25.4%, with Etsy marketplace margin just shy of 30% [5][7] User Metrics - Active sellers totaled 5.5 million, a 10.9% year-over-year decrease, while active buyers were 86.6 million, down 5.0% year-over-year [7][8] - GMS per active buyer on a trailing twelve-month basis was $121, down 1.6% year-over-year, but improved sequentially [7][8] - Depop saw significant growth with active sellers increasing by 40.8% year-over-year to 3.0 million and active buyers up 38.8% to 6.6 million [7][8] Strategic Initiatives - Etsy signed a partnership with OpenAI to allow U.S. ChatGPT users to discover and purchase items directly from Etsy sellers [7] - Key initiatives included improving search ranking models, launching new seller tools, and enhancing the Etsy App for a more personalized shopping experience [7][8] - Depop launched its largest brand campaign in September and introduced a new in-app styling feature [7][8] Fourth Quarter Guidance - For the fourth quarter of 2025, Etsy expects GMS to be between $3.5 billion and $3.65 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin around 24% [10][11] - The guidance reflects stable profitability for the Etsy marketplace and increased brand marketing investment at Depop [10][11]

Core Insights - Etsy's renewed focus on its app has positively impacted its performance, with sales increasing by 3.8% for the quarter and 2.3% for the half-year [2] - The app's gross merchandise sales (GMS) have outpaced non-app GMS, accounting for nearly 45% of total GMS in the quarter [3] - The company is leveraging a hybrid approach to artificial intelligence for product curation, combining human expertise with machine learning algorithms [5][6] Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings showed a sales increase of 3.8% and a half-year increase of 2.3% [2] - The consumer landscape appears slightly healthier, with improved spending across different income cohorts [4] User Experience and Engagement - Improved user experience has led to higher lifetime value for app users, indicating a causal relationship between app adoption and consumer spending [3] - The company aims to engage users during idle moments, encouraging them to use the app more frequently [3] Product Curation Strategy - Etsy employs a strategy called "algotorial curation," which combines staff recommendations with machine learning to enhance product visibility [5] - The curation process expands from approximately 50 human-curated listings to about 1,000 using machine learning, ensuring aesthetic cohesion and quality [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated GMS for Q2 2025 was $2.8 billion, down 4.8% year over year, while excluding Reverb, it was approximately $2.7 billion, down 2.6% year over year [25][26] - Consolidated revenue increased by approximately 4% to $673 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $169 million, representing a 25.1% margin [26][32] - Trailing twelve month active buyers in the Etsy marketplace stood at 87.3 million, down 4.6% year over year [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Etsy Marketplace GMS was down 5.4% year over year, but this was an improvement from a 6.2% decline in Q1 2025 [25][27] - Depop reported GMS growth accelerating to 35% year over year, reaching an annualized run rate of $1 billion [5][26] - Services revenue grew 15.3% year over year, driven by strong growth in on-site ads revenue at both Etsy and Depop [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., GMS for Depop grew 54% year over year, positioning it as the fastest growing player in the online fashion resale market [5] - Monthly GMS per buyer trends strengthened over the quarter, inflecting into positive year over year comparisons in May and June [28] - The proportion of Etsy GMS generated on the app increased to 44.8%, three percentage points higher than a year ago [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing the customer experience through a strategic shift to make Etsy a more delightful place to shop, emphasizing a recommendation-driven approach [4][10] - Key priorities include improving customer discovery, enhancing machine learning for better inventory matching, and retaining valuable customers through loyalty programs [12][13][19] - The company plans to shift marketing investments from traditional media to digital platforms, increasing focus on OTT, audio, and social media [14][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the recent performance and the potential for sustained growth, citing improvements in consumer spending and favorable competitive dynamics [5][27] - The company anticipates continued improvement in growth comparisons in the second half of the year, with Q3 consolidated GMS expected to be between $2.6 billion and $2.7 billion [38] - Management emphasized a disciplined approach to investments, focusing on ROI and long-term growth potential [51][49] Other Important Information - The company completed the sale of Reverb on June 2, which impacted the reported results for Q2 2025 [23][24] - The app's user experience has improved significantly, with increased satisfaction reported among users [7][9] - The company generated $90 million in free cash flow in the quarter, ending with $1.5 billion in cash and approximately $3 billion in convertible debt [36][37] Q&A Session Summary Question: What helped drive improved spending despite habitual buyers continuing to moderate? - Management noted that improved app experience, personalized marketing, and increased visibility in paid social contributed to the sequential improvement in GMS [44][46] Question: What is driving the margin compression in the core business? - Management clarified that they are managing to high twenties EBITDA margins while investing in app experience and marketing to drive long-term growth [48][49] Question: How should we think about the app's growth and its impact on GMS? - Management indicated that app adoption leads to higher lifetime value for buyers, and they are focusing on making the app a central part of the customer experience [57][62] Question: What is the demand profile across different household income cohorts? - Management observed slightly healthier consumer spending across all cohorts, with higher income households showing stronger resilience [67] Question: Can you elaborate on the personalized communication and its impact on conversion? - Management highlighted that personalized push and email notifications have shown positive results, with plans to enhance personalization further using LLMs [76][78]

Summary of Etsy (ETSY) FY Conference Call - May 13, 2025 Company Overview - Etsy is a leading two-sided marketplace with approximately 95 million active buyers and over 100 million listings from more than 8 million active sellers, primarily focused on unique, creative, and handmade goods [2][2] - Estimated to generate $12 billion in Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) for the year, with 26% adjusted EBITDA margins and $600 million in free cash flow [2][2] Macro Environment and Consumer Trends - The macro environment remains volatile, but Etsy has not observed significant changes in consumer spending despite market fluctuations [6][6] - Etsy experienced substantial growth during the pandemic, with GMS increasing from $4.9 billion pre-pandemic to nearly $11 billion in 2024 [5][5] - The company has shown resilience against supply shocks and inflation, with sellers not passing on price increases as seen in other markets [7][8] Competitive Landscape - The e-commerce market is highly competitive, with major players like Amazon and Walmart actively participating [11][11] - Etsy is focusing on local sellers to mitigate tariff impacts, with over 90% of supplies sourced domestically [16][16][20][20] - The advertising market remains strong, and Etsy is enhancing its marketing technology to improve performance [12][12] Growth Strategies - Etsy is recalibrating its strategy to balance near-term conversions with long-term initiatives, particularly focusing on app development and personalized experiences [24][24][41][41] - The company has shifted resources to improve the app experience, with 44.5% of GMS now coming from app purchases [38][38] - Emphasis on quality and personalization through a new search engine architecture that prioritizes customer experience [30][30] Advertising and Revenue Growth - Etsy has seen growth in revenue despite GMS declines, primarily through Etsy Payments and Etsy Ads, which enhance seller profitability [57][57][58][58] - The company is exploring off-site ads as a cooperative advertising program to further drive sales for sellers [62][62] Financial Performance and Profitability - Etsy has maintained a strong take rate and gross margins, with expectations for continued profitability in 2025 [65][65][76][76] - The divestiture of Reverb is expected to improve overall profit margins for Etsy [71][71][73][73] Future Outlook - Etsy's unique marketplace model positions it as a valuable alternative in a consolidating e-commerce landscape [78][78] - The company is optimistic about its growth potential, leveraging its distinct offerings to attract consumers seeking alternatives to traditional e-commerce [78][78]

Core Insights - Etsy's first quarter 2025 financial results met expectations, showing solid adjusted EBITDA performance despite revenue pressure [2][3] - The company is leveraging AI and machine learning to enhance the app experience and drive user engagement [2] - Etsy's resilient two-sided marketplace model is positioned to navigate macroeconomic challenges [2] Financial Performance - Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) for Q1 2025 was $2.8 billion, a decline of 6.5% year-over-year [4][5] - Revenue reached $651.2 million, up 0.8% compared to Q1 2024, with a take rate of 23.3%, an increase of 170 basis points [4][5] - Adjusted EBITDA was $171.1 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.3%, slightly up from 26.0% in the previous year [4][5] Operational Highlights - Active sellers decreased by 11.3% year-over-year to 8,095, while active buyers fell by 3.4% to 88.5 million [4][5] - The number of habitual buyers dropped by 11.0% year-over-year to 6.2 million [5] - Depop experienced strong growth, achieving its highest GMS since acquisition in 2021 [5][12] Strategic Initiatives - Etsy is focusing on enhancing customer engagement through improved product experiences and strategic marketing initiatives [7][8] - The company has established a task force to address tariff changes and improve buyer and seller experiences [9] - Significant investments are planned to support GMS improvement and enhance the marketplace experience [3] Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, Etsy anticipates GMS to decline at a rate similar to Q1 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin around 25% [14]