David Gardner: Risk. A lot of people talk about it, but especially in the investment world, I've never found that talk very satisfying. First of all, how do you, how do I, how do they, define risk? What does it mean, even to say that's a risky stock? The definitions are often unclear. Then some professional analysts in the risk section of their stock research will say stuff like medium. As in, this is a medium risk stock. What does that mean? Well, more than a decade ago, I developed a 25 point risk rating ...

Core Insights - The podcast discusses a 25-point risk rating system developed by David Gardner to provide a more concrete and measurable understanding of investment risk, moving away from vague terms like "medium risk" [4][5]. Group 1: Risk Assessment Framework - The risk rating system consists of 25 yes or no questions, where each "no" adds a point, indicating higher risk with a higher score [5]. - The framework can be applied not only to individual stocks but also to entire portfolios by calculating a weighted average risk score [5]. - The discussion emphasizes that understanding risk is about studying quality and that lower-risk stocks can sometimes yield greater returns [5]. Group 2: Company Analysis - Etsy - Etsy reported a net income of $182 million over the past 12 months and $75 million in the last quarter, indicating profitability [12]. - The company had a free cash flow of approximately $205 million in the last quarter and $635 million over the past year [16]. - Etsy has over 93 million buyers and 8.5 million sellers, ensuring no single customer accounts for more than 20% of its revenue [22]. - However, Etsy's net promoter score is -7, indicating questionable customer sentiment, and it has seen a decline in active buyers and gross merchandise sales [26]. Group 3: Company Analysis - Duolingo - Duolingo achieved a net income of approximately $386 million over the past 12 months and was profitable in the last quarter, aided by a one-time tax benefit [13]. - The company reported a free cash flow of about $350 million, growing by 20% year over year [17]. - Duolingo has over 50 million daily active users, with 9.5 million being paid subscribers, indicating a diversified revenue base [25]. - The brand enjoys over 50% awareness in the U.S. language learning market, supported by strong word-of-mouth marketing [21]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Etsy did not increase its sales by 10%-40% annually in the previous three years, with only single-digit growth in 2023 and 2024 [30]. - Duolingo, on the other hand, has seen annual revenue growth of at least 40% over the past three years, with a compound annual growth rate of 42% [32]. - Etsy has more debt than cash and has issued convertible debt, raising concerns about its ability to operate independently without external funding [35]. - Duolingo has a strong balance sheet with over $1.1 billion in cash and short-term investments, indicating it can operate independently [36]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Etsy faces significant competition from larger companies like Amazon and Shopify, which have greater financial resources [45]. - Duolingo is considered a market leader with strong brand recognition, surpassing competitors like Babel and Rosetta Stone in user-based revenue share [46]. - While there are no true disruptors in Etsy's space, smaller alternatives exist, indicating a competitive environment [48]. - Duolingo faces potential disruption from AI technologies, although no direct competition currently exists [49]. Group 6: Stock Metrics - Etsy has a market cap of approximately $6 billion, which is below the $10 billion threshold [57]. - Duolingo's market cap is around $7 billion, also below the $10 billion mark [59]. - Etsy's beta is 0.85, indicating lower volatility compared to the market, while Duolingo's beta has fluctuated significantly, indicating higher volatility [61][62].

Core Insights - Fiverr International (FVRR) and Etsy (ETSY) are both creator-led digital marketplaces that connect independent entrepreneurs with global demand, focusing on digital services and handmade goods respectively [1][8] - The global AI platform market is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 39%, reaching approximately $94.3 billion by 2030, prompting both companies to integrate AI into their operations to enhance engagement and monetization [2] Fiverr (FVRR) Analysis - Fiverr operates a global freelance services marketplace, connecting businesses with independent professionals across various categories, including programming and digital marketing [3] - The demand for AI specialists is concentrated in Fiverr's Programming and Tech vertical, which accounts for about 20% of its business, driven by Dynamic Matching and Managed Services [4] - Dynamic Matching generates average order values of $2,200, with 15% of briefs exceeding $1,000, while Managed Services captures projects averaging $17,000 [5] - Despite ongoing restructuring efforts to build an AI-native organization, near-term momentum is constrained due to weak spending from small and medium-sized businesses, with expectations of flat or low single-digit revenue declines in Q4 [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Fiverr's 2025 EPS is $2.9, indicating a 21.85% year-over-year improvement [7] Etsy (ETSY) Analysis - Etsy connects buyers with independent sellers of handmade goods and vintage items, with activity concentrated in home décor and personalized gifts [8] - Etsy has implemented AI-powered personalization tools to enhance engagement, with mobile applications accounting for 46% of total gross merchandise sales [9] - However, Etsy's active buyer count declined by 5% year-over-year, and gross merchandise sales fell by 2.4%, indicating ongoing structural challenges [11][12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Etsy's 2025 EPS is $1.31, reflecting a 44.26% year-over-year decline [12] Price Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, Fiverr's shares have declined by 32%, while Etsy's shares have decreased by 5.2%, reflecting Fiverr's transition towards higher-value, AI-driven services [13] - Fiverr trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2x compared to Etsy's 21.8x, suggesting a valuation gap that may not be justified given Fiverr's growth in AI services [16] - Fiverr's structural exposure to high-growth AI services and upmarket momentum positions it favorably against Etsy, which faces buyer contraction and limited growth from AI initiatives [19]

Group 1 - Etsy, Inc. is recognized as one of the 7 best jewellery stocks to buy currently [1] - Cantor Fitzgerald has reduced its price objective for Etsy from $64 to $55 while maintaining a Neutral rating, citing persistent macro issues but a more optimistic outlook for global internet equities into 2026 [2] - BTIG has maintained a Buy rating on Etsy but lowered its price target from $81 to $74, indicating a cautious assessment of valuation while still viewing the shares as inexpensive [3] Group 2 - Etsy is a top-10 e-commerce marketplace in the United States and the United Kingdom, with a significant presence in Germany, France, Australia, and Canada [4]

Core Insights - The global e-commerce landscape is rapidly evolving, with cross-border e-commerce significantly altering international trade dynamics, presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses and consumers [1] Group 1: Policy Environment - The policy environment is a crucial external factor affecting cross-border e-commerce, with varying regulations across countries creating both challenges and opportunities for enterprises [3] - In Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, 63% of consumers prefer purchasing New Year goods through e-commerce platforms, highlighting the market's growth potential [4] - Amazon has upgraded compliance requirements, increasing the on-time delivery compliance rate to 95%, which raises expectations for supplier efficiency [5][6] Group 2: Market Trends - The U.S. has become the largest online market for Korean cosmetics, holding a 51% global share, indicating a significant opportunity for cross-border e-commerce businesses to enhance procurement and marketing strategies [7] - eBay UK has adjusted customer service channels, which may impact consumer communication with the platform, while also launching a climate transition plan aiming for net-zero emissions by 2045 [7] Group 3: Logistics Challenges - Logistics remains a critical aspect of cross-border e-commerce, with long distances and multiple stages leading to high costs and delays, particularly during special circumstances like the pandemic [15] - Companies are exploring new logistics models, such as overseas warehouses, to improve delivery times and customer satisfaction [15] Group 4: Technological Innovation - Technological advancements, including AI, big data, and blockchain, are transforming cross-border e-commerce operations, enhancing customer service and operational efficiency [17][19] - AI technologies are increasingly used for smart customer service and personalized shopping experiences, while big data helps businesses understand consumer needs and market trends [17][19]

Core Insights - Etsy's Chief Accounting Officer, Merilee Buckley, sold 9,099 shares, fully exiting direct equity ownership after a year of double-digit returns [1][6][9] Transaction Summary - The transaction involved the sale of 5,636 shares and withholding of 3,463 shares for tax liabilities, with a total transaction value of approximately $329,400 based on a weighted average price of $58.45 per share [2][6] - Post-transaction, Buckley holds no direct or indirect shares, marking a complete exit from her equity ownership [6][9] Company Overview - As of January 5, 2026, Etsy's stock price was $58.45, with a market capitalization of $6.11 billion and a trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue of $2.85 billion and net income of $182.15 million [4] - Etsy operates online marketplaces such as Etsy.com and Depop, focusing on handmade goods, vintage items, and fashion resale, generating revenue through transaction fees, payment processing, and seller services [7][8] Recent Performance - Etsy reported a 0.9% year-over-year increase in gross merchandise sales to $2.7 billion for the third quarter, adjusting for the previous year's sale of Reverb [10] - The company's net income for the third quarter rose by $18.1 million to $75.5 million, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $1.6 billion at the end of September [11]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that starting from the 9th, Copilot users in the U.S. can purchase products from Etsy, Urban Outfitters, and Anthropologie directly within the chat interface [1] - A checkout feature supported by payment provider Stripe will be embedded in the chat window, allowing users to complete purchases without leaving Copilot [1] - This feature is supported by the Open Standard Agent Commercial Protocol (ACP) developed collaboratively by Stripe and OpenAI [1]

Core Viewpoint - Etsy Inc. is experiencing a resurgence in momentum after a prolonged period of stagnation, as indicated by its improved Momentum score, suggesting potential for growth in the upcoming year [1][3]. Group 1: Momentum Score - Etsy's Momentum score has increased significantly from 32.82 to 47.16 within a week, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [3]. - The stock is currently positioned within its 52-week range and is trending upward, suggesting a phase of consolidation or indecision in the market after a period of modest returns [3]. Group 2: Share Repurchase Program - The recent announcement of a $750 million share repurchase program, in addition to $200 million in pending authorizations, has contributed to the stock's momentum [4]. - On a recent trading day, Etsy's shares closed at $55.44, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14%, with an additional overnight gain of 0.69% [4]. Group 3: Performance Comparison - Despite the recent uptick, Etsy's stock has underperformed compared to peers and benchmarks over the past couple of years, with only a 4.39% increase in share price last year [1]. - The stock's performance on Momentum in Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings indicates unfavorable price trends in the short, medium, and long terms [4].

Group 1: Kroger Company - Kroger Company has shown strong performance in the grocery sector, with a notable increase in same-store sales by 5% year-over-year [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its digital capabilities, which contributed to a 30% increase in online sales [1] - Kroger's strategic partnerships with local suppliers are enhancing its product offerings and customer experience [1] Group 2: Lululemon Athletica Inc - Lululemon Athletica Inc reported a revenue growth of 23% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for its athletic apparel [1] - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly in Asia, which is expected to contribute significantly to future growth [1] - Lululemon's direct-to-consumer sales model has proven effective, with a 40% increase in online sales [1] Group 3: Etsy Inc - Etsy Inc has experienced a 15% increase in gross merchandise sales, indicating a robust performance in the e-commerce space [1] - The platform is enhancing its marketing strategies to attract more sellers and buyers, aiming for a broader market reach [1] - Etsy's focus on sustainability and unique products is resonating well with consumers, contributing to its growth trajectory [1]

Core Insights - Etsy has experienced significant changes in its business fortunes due to external events like the COVID-19 pandemic, which initially boosted online shopping and revenue growth, but has since seen a decline in financial results [1] - The stock is currently trading 82% below its all-time high, with shares rising less than 0.5% in 2025, indicating potential buying opportunities for investors [2] Financial Performance - Gross merchandise sales (GMS) peaked at $12.2 billion in 2021 but fell to $10.9 billion in 2024, with a 2.4% decline in the latest quarter ending September 30, 2025 [4] - The marketplace specializes in unique, vintage, and handcrafted goods, which are discretionary purchases and do not encourage repeat transactions, especially in a tightening economic environment [5] Future Outlook - Key metrics to monitor for Etsy's potential turnaround in 2026 include GMS and the user base, with a focus on increasing transaction volume and attracting more sellers and buyers [6] - The company's success will be influenced by the macroeconomic environment, including interest rates and consumer spending, although recent economic conditions have not benefited Etsy [7] - Investors should pay attention to the company's growth challenges and the market's low expectations for its future performance [8]