BROOKLYN, N.Y., Feb. 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Etsy, Inc. (NYSE: ETSY), which operates two-sided online marketplaces that connect millions of passionate and creative buyers and sellers around the world, plans to release its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results before the opening of the market on Thursday, February 19, 2026. The press release can be accessed on the Etsy Investor Relations website (investors.etsy.com). Etsy will also host a video webcast conference call to discuss those results ...

What happened According to a recent SEC filing dated Feb. 2, 2026, Hussman Strategic Advisors, Inc. increased its position in Etsy (NYSE:ETSY) by 42,000 shares during the fourth quarter of 2025. The estimated value of the trade was $2.56 million based on the quarterly average share price. At quarter’s end, the fund’s Etsy holdings were valued at $4.66 million, up $1.87 million from the prior period. What else to know The fund’s purchase brought its Etsy stake to 1.13% of reportable AUM, making it Hussma ...

Core Insights - The podcast discusses a 25-point risk rating system developed by David Gardner to assess investment risks in stocks, moving beyond vague terms like "medium risk" to a more quantifiable approach [1][4][5]. Group 1: Risk Assessment Framework - The risk rating system consists of 25 yes or no questions, where each "no" adds a point, indicating higher risk with a higher score [5]. - The framework aims to provide clarity in risk assessment for both individual stocks and entire portfolios [5]. - The system challenges the notion that high risk equates to high reward, suggesting that lower risk stocks can sometimes yield greater returns [5]. Group 2: Company Analysis - Etsy - Etsy reported a net income of $182 million over the past 12 months and $75 million in the last quarter, indicating profitability [11]. - The company generated free cash flow of approximately $205 million in the last quarter and $635 million over the past 12 months [15]. - Etsy has over 93 million buyers and 8.5 million sellers, ensuring no single customer accounts for more than 20% of revenue [21][22]. - The company has seen a decline in active buyers and gross merchandise sales, with a net promoter score of -7, indicating questionable customer sentiment [25][26]. - Etsy's market cap is approximately $6 billion, which is below the $10 billion threshold considered less risky [56]. Group 3: Company Analysis - Duolingo - Duolingo achieved a net income of approximately $386 million over the past 12 months and has been profitable since 2023 [12]. - The company reported free cash flow of about $350 million, growing by 20% year over year [16]. - Duolingo has over 50% brand awareness in the U.S. language learning market and benefits from strong word-of-mouth marketing [20]. - The company has a market cap of around $7 billion, also below the $10 billion threshold [58]. - Duolingo's annual revenue growth has been at least 40% over the past three years, with a compound annual growth rate of 42% [30]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Etsy faces significant competition from larger companies like Amazon and Shopify, which have greater financial resources [44]. - Duolingo is considered a market leader with competitors like Babel and Rosetta Stone but surpasses them in user engagement and brand awareness [45]. - There are no major disruptive upstarts challenging Etsy's business model, but there are smaller alternatives [48]. - Duolingo faces potential disruption from AI technologies, particularly in language learning, but currently has no direct competition [49][50]. Group 5: Financial Metrics - Etsy's return on equity is negative due to large-scale buybacks, indicating potential management issues [41]. - Duolingo reported a return on equity of almost 40%, influenced by a one-time tax benefit, but generally shows an upward trend [42].

Core Insights - Etsy's Chief Accounting Officer, Merilee Buckley, sold 9,099 shares, fully exiting direct equity ownership after a year of double-digit returns [1][6][9] Transaction Summary - The transaction involved the sale of 5,636 shares and withholding of 3,463 shares for tax liabilities, with a total transaction value of approximately $329,400 based on a weighted average price of $58.45 per share [2][6] - Post-transaction, Buckley holds no direct or indirect shares, marking a complete exit from her equity ownership [6][9] Company Overview - As of January 5, 2026, Etsy's stock price was $58.45, with a market capitalization of $6.11 billion and a trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue of $2.85 billion and net income of $182.15 million [4] - Etsy operates online marketplaces such as Etsy.com and Depop, focusing on handmade goods, vintage items, and fashion resale, generating revenue through transaction fees, payment processing, and seller services [7][8] Recent Performance - Etsy reported a 0.9% year-over-year increase in gross merchandise sales to $2.7 billion for the third quarter, adjusting for the previous year's sale of Reverb [10] - The company's net income for the third quarter rose by $18.1 million to $75.5 million, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $1.6 billion at the end of September [11]

Core Insights - Etsy, Inc. shares declined following the release of its third-quarter earnings report, despite some analysts maintaining a positive outlook and raising price targets for the stock [1] Group 1: Analyst Insights - Canaccord Genuity analyst Maria Ripps noted a 2% year-over-year decline in the company's marketplace Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS), but highlighted a nearly 40% acceleration in GMS growth at Depop. She also mentioned that new machine learning models in the app discovery feed resulted in double-digit engagement gains [2] - Needham analyst Bernie McTernan emphasized that the partnership with OpenAI positions Etsy as a leader in agentic commerce, with ChatGPT integration facilitating direct platform purchases through instant checkout, which enhances conversion rates and brand visibility [2] - McTernan observed that GMS contraction is decreasing faster than expected, with Q3 GMS down 2.4% year-over-year compared to a 4.8% decline in Q2, supported by improved app engagement and buyer reactivation [3] Group 2: Price Target Adjustments - Canaccord Genuity maintained a Buy rating on Etsy and raised its price target from $76 to $80 [2] - Needham & Co. also reiterated its Buy rating on Etsy, increasing the price target from $72 to $76 [3] Group 3: Market Conditions and Risks - Analysts see potential for further upside if macroeconomic trends improve or if Etsy's unique growth initiatives attract more buyers or sellers [3] - Risks include intensified competition, particularly from Chinese e-commerce players, and ongoing macroeconomic challenges [3]

Core Insights - Etsy Inc. reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings with adjusted earnings per share of $0.63, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.52 [1] - Revenue increased by 6.1% year-over-year to $678 million, exceeding expectations of $655.87 million [1] Financial Performance - Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) reached $2.72 billion, a 0.9% increase from the previous year, excluding Reverb [2] - Etsy marketplace GMS declined by 2.4%, while Depop's GMS experienced a significant surge of 39.4% [2] - The company's take rate improved to 24.9%, an increase of 220 basis points year-over-year, attributed to enhanced on-site advertising performance [2] Guidance and Projections - For the fourth quarter, Etsy projects GMS between $3.5 billion and $3.65 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 24%, down from 25.4% in Q3 [2] - The company anticipates its take rate to remain around 24.5% [2] User Metrics - Active buyers decreased by 5% year-over-year to 86.6 million, while active sellers fell by 10.9% to 5.5 million, impacted by the seller set-up fee introduced in April [3]

Core Insights - The company is undergoing a leadership change with Krissy Patel Goyle being promoted from Chief Growth Officer to CEO effective January 1, succeeding Josh Silverman who has led the company for eight years [2][3] Leadership Transition - Krissy Patel Goyle has been with the company since 2011 and has experience running Depop, a company acquired by Etsy [2] - Josh Silverman has navigated the company through various crises, including the lockdown and supply chain issues, and is now focusing on positioning the business for artificial intelligence [3] Strategic Focus - The company has already engaged in a partnership with OpenAI, indicating a strong focus on artificial intelligence [3] - There is a belief that Patel Goyle's experience in personalization and AI at Depop will be crucial for the company's future success [4] Investor Sentiment - There appears to be some nervousness among investors regarding the CEO transition and the company's forward-looking guidance related to earnings [4]

Core Insights - Etsy's shares fell nearly 9% following the announcement of a leadership change, but are still up about 30% year-to-date [1][4] - CEO Josh Silverman will step down at the end of 2025, with President and Chief Growth Officer Kruti Patel Goyal taking over [2][6] - Silverman will transition to the role of executive chair until the end of 2026, emphasizing the timing is right for new leadership [2][3] Company Performance - Etsy reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, with earnings per share of $0.63 and revenue of $678 million, a 2.4% year-over-year increase [3][6] - Despite the positive earnings, gross merchandise sales declined by 6.5% to $2.72 billion, influenced by the sale of the music gear marketplace Reverb [3][6] - Investors are likely to monitor how the new CEO will address competition and marketplace growth challenges [2][3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated GMS for Q3 2025 was $2.72 billion, exceeding guidance, with a year-over-year growth of 0.9% when excluding Reverb [26] - Consolidated revenue grew 6.1% year over year to $678 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $172 million, representing a margin of 25.4% [27][36] - Etsy Marketplace GMS declined 2.4% year over year, but improved by 300 basis points sequentially from Q2 to Q3 [27][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Etsy Marketplace GMS was $2.43 billion, down 2.4% year over year, while Depop's GMS grew 39.4% year over year to $292 million [14][27] - Services revenue increased by 12.7% year over year, driven by growth in on-site ad revenue at both Etsy and Depop [32] - Etsy Ads experienced meaningful growth, supported by model enhancements that optimized seller budget pacing and improved ad quality [33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Active buyer count was 86.6 million, down 5% year over year, but new and reactivated buyers totaled 11.4 million for the quarter [29] - GMS per active buyer was stable at $1.21, with encouraging month-by-month improvements in purchase frequency and average item values [30] - The app's contribution to total GMS increased to 46%, with app users visiting five times more often than non-app users [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on four strategic priorities: enhancing customer discovery, deepening loyalty, amplifying seller creativity, and leveraging AI for personalization [17][22] - A partnership with OpenAI aims to integrate Etsy listings into ChatGPT, enhancing the shopping experience and driving incremental growth [19][45] - The company is reallocating marketing spend towards upper funnel channels to spark engagement and inspiration, particularly during the holiday season [20][62] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding consumer spending, anticipating a stable macro environment for Q4 [36][60] - The company expects Q4 consolidated GMS to be between $3.5 and $3.65 billion, indicating further sequential improvement [37] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining profitability while also being willing to invest in growth opportunities, particularly for Depop [65][90] Other Important Information - The company completed the sale of Reverb on June 2, impacting year-over-year comparisons [26] - The transition in leadership from Josh Silverman to Kruti Patel Goyal is set to take place on January 1, 2026, with a focus on continuing growth and innovation [9][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: About the OpenAI partnership and its integration - Management highlighted the excitement around the OpenAI partnership, emphasizing that Etsy listings will be integrated into ChatGPT, allowing seamless transactions through Etsy's payment system [41][45] Question: Engagement improvements on the app - Management discussed meaningful investments in reshaping the app's home screen to enhance discovery, resulting in increased engagement metrics [50][52] Question: Fourth quarter guidance and holiday opportunities - Management noted that while consumer outlook remains uncertain, they expect continued progress in initiatives and a strong holiday campaign focused on the unique value of Etsy [60][62] Question: Balancing traffic from AI platforms versus direct mobile - Management indicated that both channels can coexist and benefit Etsy, with agentic commerce providing additional exposure to potential buyers [87][89] Question: Investments planned for Depop and margin compression - Management confirmed that the brand campaign for Depop is a long-term investment aimed at expanding awareness, which may compress margins in the near term but is expected to yield significant long-term benefits [90][91]

Core Insights - Etsy CEO Josh Silverman will step down and transition to the role of executive chairman at the end of the year [1] - Kruti Patel Goyal, currently the CEO of Etsy-owned Depop, will assume the CEO position at Etsy starting January 1, 2026 [1]