An official NCAA basketball goes through the hoop during practice before their 2024 NCAA Tournament First Round game at PPG Paints Arena.Prediction markets saw strong results from the Super Bowl, but it was just an appetizer for a banquet of sporting events in 2026 that are expected to drive surging volumes in event contracts. Kalshi saw record downloads during Super Bowl week, up 1,544% from the same time period last year, according to a report from market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. Daily active users ...

Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) reports fourth-quarter results after market close on Tuesday, and traders on Polymarket are speculating on what will be mentioned.The company is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.63 per share, down from $1.01 per share in the year-ago period. The stock has fallen almost 25% this year as cryptocurrency markets have experienced a significant selloff.What Polymarket Predicts For Robinhood’s Earnings CallThe 99% probability that management will mention “prediction” duri ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CME Group achieved record revenues of $6.5 billion in 2025, a 6% increase compared to 2024, with annual revenue records in five out of six asset classes [11] - Adjusted net income reached $4.1 billion, resulting in a 9% growth in adjusted earnings per share for the year [11] - In Q4 2025, revenue was $1.65 billion, an 8% increase from Q4 2024, with an adjusted operating margin of 67% [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average daily volume increased by 6% to 2,128.1 million contracts, with record volumes in interest rate, energy, metals, agricultural, and crypto complexes [5] - Market data revenue surpassed $800 million for the first time, up 13% from 2024 [11] - Micro products saw a 59% increase in Q4 to a record 4.4 million contracts per day [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International business averaged 8.4 million contracts per day, up 8% from the previous record set in 2024 [5] - Average daily margin savings for customers reached $80 billion, an increase of approximately $20 billion over the past year [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CME Group is focused on innovation, launching Event Contracts to expand its customer base and provide greater access to markets [8] - The company plans to introduce 24/7 trading for its entire crypto suite and is evaluating whether other asset classes would benefit from 24/7 trading [10] - CME Securities Clearing is set to launch later this year, enhancing capital efficiencies for the industry [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the health of the customer base, noting that open positions are around 125 million and that retail and institutional segments are growing [18][19] - The macro landscape is complex, but CME Group remains focused on providing premier risk management tools [10] - The company is encouraged by strong activity in early 2026, continuing the momentum from a record-setting year [15] Other Important Information - CME Group repurchased $256 million in shares during Q4 and an additional $276 million in 2026 [12] - The board approved the use of OSTTRA proceeds for share repurchases over time [12] - The company expects total adjusted operating expenses to be approximately $1.695 billion in 2026 [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Health of customer base amid volatility - Management indicated that the customer base is healthy, with open positions and volume increases across all regions, despite raised margin requirements in the metals complex [18][19] Question: Engagement in prediction markets - Management noted strong interest from new individual participants and institutional market makers in prediction markets, indicating a robust pipeline for future engagement [25][26] Question: Pricing changes and market data - Management discussed a 3.5% rack rate increase for market data products and emphasized the importance of subscription revenue growth [35][37] Question: Cross-margining programs and treasury clearing - Management confirmed operational readiness for the CME FICC cross-margining program and discussed the anticipated benefits of treasury clearing for collateral balances [89][94] Question: Tokenized collateral and AI disintermediation risk - Management is exploring tokenized cash initiatives and believes AI will enhance rather than disrupt their data business [82][68]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CME Group achieved record revenues of $6.5 billion in 2025, a 6% increase compared to 2024, with annual revenue records in five out of six asset classes [11] - Adjusted net income for 2025 was $4.1 billion, resulting in a 9% growth in adjusted earnings per share [11] - Average daily volume increased by 6% to 2,128.1 million contracts, marking the fifth consecutive year of record volume [5][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Market data revenue surpassed $800 million for the first time, up 13% from 2024 [11] - Average daily margin savings for customers reached $80 billion, an increase of approximately $20 billion over the past year [6] - Retail-focused products saw significant growth, with microproducts up 59% in Q4 to a record 4.4 million contracts per day [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International business averaged 8.4 million contracts per day, up 8% from the previous record set in 2024 [5] - Average daily volume in cryptocurrency trading reached 379,000, up 92% in Q4, representing over $13 billion in notional value traded per day [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CME Group is focused on expanding its customer base through innovative products, including event contracts and 24/7 trading for cryptocurrency [8][10] - The company received approval for CME Securities Clearing, set to launch later this year, enhancing capital efficiencies for clients [7] - CME Group aims to continuously evolve its product offerings, requiring strategic investments for growth [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the health of the customer base, noting growth in both retail and institutional segments [18][19] - The company remains focused on providing premier risk management tools to navigate a complex macro landscape [10] - Management is encouraged by strong activity in early 2026, indicating a solid foundation for continued growth [101] Other Important Information - CME Group repurchased $256 million in shares during Q4 and an additional $276 million in 2026 [12] - The board approved the use of OSTTRA proceeds for share repurchases over time [12] - The company plans to evaluate transaction fees regularly, moving away from annual consolidated changes [13][39] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Health of customer base amid volatility - Management indicated that the customer base is healthy, with open positions around 125 million and significant growth in silver contracts despite margin changes [18][19] Question: Engagement with prediction markets - Management noted increased interest from new individual participants and institutional market makers in prediction markets since the launch [25][26] Question: Pricing changes and transparency - Management explained that pricing changes will be made based on business performance rather than a fixed schedule, allowing for more flexibility [44] Question: Progress on Google Cloud migration - The migration is on track, with $29 million spent in Q4 and around $100 million for the year related to cloud expenses [76][77] Question: Tokenized collateral and its implications - Management is exploring tokenized cash initiatives and will assess the risk associated with accepting different types of tokens for margin [82] Question: Cross-margining programs and collateral balances - CME Group's cross-margining program is operationally ready, with significant savings generated for participating firms, and the company anticipates further growth in collateral balances with new offerings [89][94]

CME Group (NasdaqGS:CME) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 04, 2026 08:30 AM ET Speaker4Welcome to the CME Group fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. At this time, I would like to inform all participants that your lines have been placed on a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session of today's call. I would now like to turn the call over to Adam Minick. Please go ahead.Speaker0Good morning, and I hope you're all doing well today. We released our earnings commentary earlier this morning, which provid ...

Core Insights - Prediction markets have evolved from historical betting practices to modern platforms allowing individuals to wager on future events, with significant growth in trading volumes and mainstream acceptance [4][9][10] Group 1: Definition and Functionality - Prediction markets are exchanges for trading event contracts that pay out based on the outcome of specific real-world events, typically structured as binary "yes/no" positions [6][7] - Market prices reflect the collective probability assigned to outcomes, with trading volumes spiking around significant political and macroeconomic events [7] Group 2: Industry Growth and Main Players - Kalshi and Polymarket are the leading platforms in the prediction market space, with Kalshi operating under a federally regulated U.S. exchange model and Polymarket focusing on global access [8][9] - The average daily trading volume for Polymarket is reported at $18.3 billion, while Kalshi's is $285 million [13] Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Landscape - The rapid growth of prediction markets has led to regulatory challenges, with concerns over legality, potential insider trading, and influence on media and statistics [4][14] - Kalshi's legal victory against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has allowed for the expansion of event contracts into various sectors, including crypto and sports [11][12] Group 4: Controversies and Criticisms - Concerns about insider trading have been highlighted by incidents such as a user winning over $400,000 by betting on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before his capture [15] - Critics argue that politically based contracts can distort elections and that prediction markets may circumvent traditional gambling regulations [19][20] Group 5: Future Developments - The Trump family's involvement in prediction markets, including Donald Trump Jr.'s advisory role and the planned launch of a prediction market by Truth Social, indicates growing interest and potential for further market expansion [23][24]

Core Insights - Prediction markets are under scrutiny following a significant bet on Nicolás Maduro's political fate, raising questions about potential insider trading and market manipulation [1][4][10] - The regulatory landscape for prediction markets in the U.S. remains unsettled, with ongoing lobbying and legal battles [4][6][9] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is the primary regulator for prediction markets, but existing rules may not adequately address the unique nature of these markets [5][6][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Prediction markets are gaining mainstream attention, with their data being featured on major news networks like CNN [3] - There is a growing debate on whether insider trading could enhance the accuracy of prediction markets, contrasting with traditional views on market integrity [10][11] - Operators of prediction markets are forming coalitions to establish regulations that prevent insider trading and ensure fair participation [10] Group 2: Regulatory Challenges - The CFTC has the authority to shut down contract categories deemed contrary to public interest, but the definition of "gaming" remains contentious [7] - Recent legal actions have involved state gambling regulators asserting authority over sports-related event contracts offered by prediction markets [8] - The Supreme Court may ultimately resolve the regulatory status of prediction markets, as they assert federal regulation [9]

Core Insights - The prediction market is experiencing exponential growth, transitioning from a niche activity to a multi-billion dollar financial sector, driven by betting on sports, politics, and economic indicators [1] - Monthly betting amounts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi surged from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion by November, indicating a structural shift in pricing and trading public event outcomes through "event contracts" [1] - The influx of capital and rising valuations reflect a strong belief in prediction markets as a new type of financial derivative trading platform [3] Market Dynamics - Kalshi raised $1 billion at a valuation of $11 billion, with notable investors including Paradigm, Sequoia, and Andreessen Horowitz, while Polymarket received a potential $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, valuing it at approximately $8 billion [3] - The regulatory environment is evolving, with Polymarket recently obtaining approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate in the U.S., enhancing the legitimacy of the industry [4] Competitive Landscape - Despite Polymarket's previous dominance in trading volume, Kalshi has rapidly gained ground, with both platforms now holding roughly equal market shares, collectively reaching about $9 billion in total bets last month [5] - Both companies are intensifying their marketing efforts and forming partnerships with major sports leagues and media outlets, with Google Finance beginning to display betting data probabilities from these platforms [5] Betting Diversity - In addition to political elections, economic data and pop culture have become popular betting subjects, with Kalshi users predicting an 80% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January [7] - The reach of prediction markets has expanded into niche areas, with users betting on various topics, including movie ratings and social media activity [7]

Core Insights - Gemini Space Station Inc. has received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a derivatives exchange, marking its entry into the prediction markets sector [1][4] - The company plans to allow US customers to trade event contracts related to economic, financial, political, and sports forecasts through its website and mobile app [2] - Following the approval, Gemini's shares surged by as much as 28% in extended trading, indicating strong market interest [3] Company Developments - Gemini aims to expand its derivatives offerings to include crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts, which are already popular in overseas markets [3] - The approval process for Gemini's derivatives exchange took over a year, highlighting the regulatory challenges in launching such platforms [4] - Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini, has been appointed to the CFTC's CEO Innovation Council, which includes other notable figures from the digital assets industry [6] Industry Context - The approval of Gemini's derivatives exchange reflects a growing interest in prediction markets and crypto-related derivatives, despite ongoing legal uncertainties in the sector [4] - The move positions Gemini alongside other crypto-native firms like Polymarket, which are exploring the intersection of digital assets and prediction markets [4]

Group 1 - CNN has partnered with Kalshi to integrate real-time probabilities into its programming, enhancing Kalshi's position in the prediction market space [1][2] - The partnership will feature a Kalshi-powered ticker and provide real-time access to various event data for CNN's newsroom [2] - Kalshi recently raised $300 million in a Series D funding round and reported a 200-fold increase in trading volumes over the past year, capturing over 60% of global prediction-market activity [3] Group 2 - Kalshi is facing legal challenges, including a class-action lawsuit alleging market manipulation and illegal sports betting [4] - Polymarket has relaunched in the US, securing a partnership with Yahoo! Finance and preparing for a significant investment from Intercontinental Exchange, potentially valuing the platform near $10 billion [5][6] - The competition between Kalshi and Polymarket is intensifying as both platforms seek to establish themselves as leaders in institutional prediction-market data [6]