预测市场正经历指数级扩张，迅速从边缘活动转变为数十亿美元规模的金融板块。受体育、政治及经济 指标押注的推动，该领域的月度交易量在过去两年内激增了130倍，标志着通过"事件合约"对公共事件 结果进行定价与交易的模式已实现结构性跨越。 据加密货币公司Dune和Keyrock发布的最新报告，Polymarket和Kalshi等平台上的月度押注金额已从2024 年初的不足1亿美元飙升至今年11月的逾130亿美元。这一数据的剧变不仅凸显了巨量用户资金正加速涌 入这一新兴交易场所，也反映了市场对于此类"事件合约"需求的爆发式增长。 交易量的井喷引发了资本市场的重新定价。Kalshi近期以110亿美元的估值完成巨额融资，而Polymarket 也获得了约80亿美元的估值。与此同时，监管环境出现关键转折，Polymarket上月获得美国商品期货交 易委员会批准在美国开展业务，这不仅赋予了该行业合法性背书，也进一步加剧了头部平台间的竞争格 局。 这一板块正加速融入更广泛的金融基础设施。通过与CNN、CNBC等主流媒体及Google Finance的合 作，预测市场正演变为衡量现实世界事件概率的公认工具，其日益增长的影响力及在各 ...

(Bloomberg) — Gemini Space Station Inc.’s (GEMI) application for a derivatives exchange was approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Wednesday, in a move that will allow the company to join the fast-growing field of prediction markets. Gemini, co-founded by billionaire twin brothers Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, will soon allow existing US customers to trade event contracts on its website and mobile app, the company said in a blog post. In a regulatory filing prior to its initial public offeri ...

CNN has chosen Kalshi as its official prediction markets partner, strengthening Kalshi’s effort to make event contracts a mainstream data source for political and economic reporting. This collaboration follows a series of October expansion moves by both companies: Kalshi raised a $300 million Series D, while Polymarket, its on-chain rival, relaunched in the US and secured major media and TradFi alliances, including Yahoo! Finance. How Will The Partnership Between CNN and Kalshi Work? Under the agreement ...

Core Insights - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is leveraging the prediction market boom to create a structural growth engine through the acquisition of a 90% stake in MIAX Derivatives Exchange in partnership with Susquehanna International Group [1][10] - The company plans to launch a dedicated futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse by 2026, positioning prediction markets as a long-term core business [3][12] Company Developments - MIAX Derivatives Exchange is a CFTC-licensed entity, and Miami International Holdings retains a 10% stake, providing regulatory credibility and a robust infrastructure [2] - Robinhood's prediction markets have become its fastest-growing product line, with approximately 9 billion contracts traded by over 1 million customers in the first year, generating over $100 million in annualized revenues [4][12] - Management anticipates a potential run rate of $300 million over time, driven by strong customer demand and engagement [4][5] Strategic Initiatives - The establishment of an independent futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse will allow Robinhood to manage clearing and execution internally, improving economics and product flexibility [5][6][10] - This move is expected to enhance the company's ability to innovate and respond to market demands, particularly in political, macroeconomic, and sports markets [6] Competitive Landscape - Robinhood faces competition from other firms in the prediction market space, notably Kalshi, which is expanding its regulated event-contract offerings [7] - Traditional derivatives market players like Cboe Global Markets and CME Group are also entering the prediction market arena, indicating a shift towards mainstream acceptance of prediction markets [8][11] - Cboe Global plans to launch event-based contracts tied to economic data, while CME Group is partnering with FanDuel to introduce a consumer-focused platform for trading event contracts [9] Market Outlook - The growing participation in prediction markets signals their transition into a mainstream asset class, characterized by increasing competition, deeper liquidity, and innovation [11] - Robinhood's prediction market business is expected to drive significant growth, appealing to younger traders and diversifying revenue streams beyond traditional models [12]

Core Insights - Polymarket has begun offering event contracts to traders through brokerage firms, indicating a shift in its operational model as it adapts to regulatory uncertainties [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The introduction of event contracts through brokerage firms marks a significant expansion of Polymarket's trading capabilities [1] - The move comes amid ongoing noncommittal stances from the CFTC regarding regulation, suggesting a cautious approach to compliance and market entry [1]

Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform, has closed a $1 billion funding round that values the company at $11 billion, according to TechCrunch. The round was led by returning investors Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, with participation from Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Anthos Capital, and Neo. The new valuation brings Kalshi closer to the $12 billion to $15 billion valuation target reportedly sought by its crypto-native rival Polymarket. The milestone also comes just a month after Kalshi announced ...

Core Insights - The CFTC has been involved in regulating prediction markets, particularly event contracts related to elections and sports, which have seen rapid growth following legal victories against prohibitions [1][2][3] - The emergence of various prediction market platforms, such as Polly Market, indicates a diversification in the types of events that can be bet on, expanding beyond elections to include sports and other performances [2][4] - Recent legal cases involving allegations of performance manipulation by athletes highlight the risks associated with prediction markets, particularly in sports betting [5][6][15] Regulation and Compliance - The CFTC has a core competency in regulating designated contract markets, but there is a learning curve as these prediction markets are relatively new [11][12] - There is a need for increased awareness and training regarding compliance and the risks of insider trading within these markets [9][10][15] - Registered prediction markets must ensure their contracts are not susceptible to manipulation and comply with regulatory obligations to avoid liability [17][18] Market Growth and Trends - Prediction markets have gained popularity and are now considered a permanent asset class, with their influence evident in various sectors, including politics and sports [19][20] - The ability of prediction markets to provide early insights into outcomes, such as election results, demonstrates their growing significance compared to traditional sources [20]

Core Viewpoint - Kalshi Inc. is suing New York's gaming commission, claiming the state is overstepping its authority by attempting to regulate sports-betting operations that are under federal jurisdiction [1]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Claims - Kalshi filed a lawsuit in Manhattan US District Court, asserting its operations are legal under federal law and seeking to block state enforcement actions [2]. - The company alleges that state regulators have threatened it with criminal action and civil penalties unless it ceases its event contracts in New York [3]. - Kalshi argues that regulation by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) preempts state authorities due to the nature of its contracts as binary options [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Context - The New York gaming commission issued a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi, claiming the company is operating an unlicensed sports wagering operation in violation of state law [6]. - The lawsuit reflects a growing number of legal challenges regarding the legitimacy of prediction markets, particularly in states that traditionally regulate sports betting [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The popularity of sports-themed event contracts surged this year, significantly increasing trading volumes and leading to acquisitions and partnerships within the industry [9]. - DraftKings Inc. has acquired Railbird Technologies Inc., which recently obtained a CFTC license, indicating a trend of consolidation in the market [9]. - Federal courts in Nevada and New Jersey have previously blocked state regulators from halting Kalshi's offerings, suggesting a potential precedent for the current case [8].

Core Insights - Robinhood Markets (HOOD) faces increased competition in the event-contracts business from DraftKings Inc. (DKNG), which is entering the prediction market through the acquisition of Railbird Technologies Inc. and its subsidiary Railbird Exchange, LLC [1] - DraftKings aims to leverage its acquisition to offer event prediction trading in states where sports betting is banned, targeting retail users with the upcoming "DraftKings Predictions" app [2] - Robinhood maintains a first-mover advantage with its partnership with Kalshi, offering over 100 CFTC-regulated event contracts to 12 million monthly users, nearly double DraftKings' user base [3] Competition Landscape - The competition between Robinhood and DraftKings is intensifying as both companies target young, mobile, risk-tolerant users [4] - While Robinhood offers lower fees and broader access, DraftKings may differentiate itself with an entertainment-focused, gamified approach to event-based prediction markets [4] - DraftKings' entry into the market validates prediction markets as a mainstream asset class, potentially leading to multi-billion-dollar growth across various sectors [5] Financial Performance - Interactive Brokers (IBKR) has seen rapid growth in its Forecast business, reporting record net revenues of $1.66 billion in Q3 2025, with a 27% sequential increase in tradable Forecast events [6][7] - Unlike Robinhood and DraftKings, Interactive Brokers focuses on economic, financial, government, and climate indicators, appealing to a more analytical trading demographic [8] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past year, Robinhood's shares have increased by 367.4%, significantly outperforming the industry average of 33.4% [9] - Currently, Robinhood's shares trade at a premium, with a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 15.43X compared to the industry average of 2.93X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 64.2% for 2025 and 17% for 2026, with upward revisions in earnings estimates for both years [12]

Core Insights - Robinhood is exploring opportunities in the prediction markets space to diversify its offerings beyond retail trading [1][2] - The company is considering growth through acquisition, joint ventures, partnerships, or developing its own products [2] - Interest in prediction markets has increased significantly since the U.S. presidential election, with various venues allowing investors to wager on diverse topics [3] Company Developments - Robinhood has partnered with prediction marketplace Kalshi and Interactive Brokers Group's ForecastEx to enhance its prediction markets capabilities [2][3] - The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a no-action letter in September, which may positively impact the trajectory of prediction markets [4] - Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) invested $2 billion in Polymarket, positioning itself as a key player in the distribution of event-driven data [6] Market Trends - The surge in interest in prediction markets is partly attributed to regulatory changes under the Trump administration [3] - Novig, a peer-to-peer sports prediction market, raised $18 million in Series A funding to expand its market presence and features [6][7] - Fawzi Itani from Forerunner highlighted that Novig is well-positioned within key trends in gaming and entertainment, reflecting consumer engagement with financial products [7]