For years, prediction markets lived on the fringes of finance — interesting, occasionally accurate, but easy for investors to dismiss. Danny Moses says that complacency is becoming a mistake in 2026. In an exclusive interview with Benzinga, Moses was blunt: prediction markets are no longer noise. As liquidity improves, he says they're turning into a real signal — one investors ignore at their own risk. • CME Group stock is trading in a tight range. What's ahead for CME stock? Tell-tale signs include: 1. Liq ...

Core Viewpoint - The prediction market sector is gaining traction, with significant involvement from major cryptocurrency players like Coinbase, making the Direxion Daily COIN Bull 2X ETF (CONX) a noteworthy investment opportunity for 2026 [1]. Group 1: Prediction Markets Overview - Prediction markets are exchanges where participants trade derivatives based on the outcomes of various events, including economic releases and elections [1]. - The prediction market space is increasingly intertwined with cryptocurrency activities, attracting major firms like Coinbase [1]. Group 2: Direxion Daily COIN Bull 2X ETF (CONX) - CONX aims to deliver 200% of Coinbase's daily share price movement, meaning a 1% increase in Coinbase's shares would result in a 2% increase in CONX [2]. - The ETF was launched in November and is positioned to attract risk-tolerant traders interested in prediction markets [4]. Group 3: Coinbase's Strategic Moves - Coinbase has partnered with Kalshi to offer event contracts, tapping into the existing interest of its retail clients in prediction markets and sports betting [3]. - The company is recognized for its compliance expertise and technological capabilities, which are essential for success in the prediction markets [4]. Group 4: Market Potential and Future Outlook - Research firm Clear Street identifies Coinbase as a top fintech idea for 2026, highlighting its established customer base as a catalyst for growth in prediction markets [5]. - Coinbase's 2026 Crypto Market Outlook suggests that prediction markets are entering a transformative phase, presenting multiple opportunities for CONX [6]. - The potential for increased institutional participation in prediction markets could enhance market structure and regulatory oversight, solidifying their role in the financial ecosystem [7].

Coinbase said on Wednesday it will start letting users trade stocks and event contracts tied to real-world outcomes, as the exchange expands beyond its crypto roots to compete more directly with rival... ...

Robin Hood rolling out some new prediction markets features. Mackenzie Sagalas is here with those details. Mac, >> hey Scott.So, Robin Hood users can now trade what are essentially parlays and prop bets on the NFL inside the app. These are event contracts tied to game outcomes, totals, and spreads. And they're also adding contracts on individual players, like whether someone scores a touchdown or hits a yardage mark.Now, they say early next year, it will let users build custom combos. It's that stitch toget ...

Core Viewpoint - Gemini Space Station's stock surged by over 30% following the approval of a license to launch prediction markets in the U.S. [1] Company Developments - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granted Gemini Titan, an affiliate of Gemini, a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license, allowing it to offer event contracts to U.S. customers via its website and mobile app [3]. - Event contracts will include simple "yes" or "no" questions regarding future events, such as Bitcoin price predictions and outcomes in elections, sports, and geopolitical events [4]. Industry Insights - The prediction markets industry is experiencing rapid growth, with weekly trading volumes exceeding $2 billion for the first time in October [6]. - Industry leaders, including Thomas Peterffy of Interactive Brokers Group, predict that the event-contracts market could surpass the stock market in size within the next 15 years [6][7]. - Gemini's president, Cameron Winklevoss, believes that prediction markets could become as significant as traditional capital markets [7]. - The company aims to aggressively pursue the profit opportunities presented by prediction markets [8].

Core Insights - Robinhood has experienced significant stock price appreciation, with shares up nearly 90% over the past six months and 270% in 2025, resulting in a staggering 1,400% gain over three years [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q3, Robinhood's revenue doubled to $1.3 billion, and net income increased by 271% year-over-year [2] - Transaction-based revenue surged 129% to $730 million, making up 57% of total revenue, with cryptocurrency revenue increasing by 330% to $268 million, options revenue rising by 50% to $304 million, and equities revenue growing by 132% to $86 million [5] Business Model and Diversification - Robinhood has transitioned from a trading app to a diversified financial services platform, now offering 11 business lines each generating over $100 million in annualized revenue [4] - The company aims to generate half of its revenue from outside the U.S. and institutional investors within the next decade, supported by the acquisition of Bitstamp, a global cryptocurrency exchange [16] Market Sensitivity - Robinhood's performance is closely tied to retail trading activity and market sentiment, with trading volumes increasing during market upswings and declining during downturns [6][10] - The correlation between Robinhood's stock and Bitcoin suggests that crypto volatility will significantly impact its stock performance in 2026 [8][10] Event Contracts as Growth Engine - Robinhood has introduced event contracts, allowing users to bet on specific outcomes, with contract volume doubling each quarter and reaching 2.3 billion in Q3, potentially leading to a $300 million annual run rate [11][12] - Regulatory scrutiny exists, as Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection issued cease-and-desist orders regarding illegal sports wagering, which could affect future growth [13] Valuation and Future Outlook - Robinhood's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 59, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 24.1, indicating a premium valuation for a high-growth company [15] - The company is positioned for continued growth, with a focus on expanding its core business and diversifying its revenue streams [16]

Key Takeaways Connecticut ordered Robinhood to stop offering event contracts, citing unlicensed sports gambling concerns.State officials argue the products resemble prohibited wagers and were promoted to ineligible users.Robinhood says its event contracts fall under CFTC oversight and are offered through a regulated entity.Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) and two other prediction-market operators have come under the radar of Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection. Yesterday, the agency’s gaming divis ...

Core Insights - Prediction markets allow individuals to bet on the outcomes of various events, providing a platform for financial speculation based on collective insights [1][7][13] Prediction Market Basics - Prediction markets operate as exchanges where participants can purchase binary contracts that pay out based on the occurrence of specific events [1][15] - The cost of an event contract is typically lower than its payout, with the difference reflecting the odds based on market sentiment [2][15] Value of Prediction Markets - Transaction fees vary by platform, with Kalshi charging $0.02 for a $0.40 contract, while Polymarket operates without fees, profiting from the bid-ask spread [6] - Platforms require users to fund accounts before purchasing contracts, with Kalshi accepting various funding methods, including bank transfers and cryptocurrencies [6] - Some platforms may offer interest on uninvested cash, enhancing the value proposition for users [6] - Users can sell contracts before events occur if they change their outlook, allowing for flexibility in trading [6] Risks of Prediction Markets - Financial losses are a significant risk, as event contracts are speculative and may favor well-funded market makers [8] - The legality of prediction markets is under scrutiny, with the CFTC regulating real-money markets in the U.S. and past fines imposed on operators like Polymarket [9][10] Prediction Market Platforms - Notable platforms for U.S. users include Polymarket, which recently gained CFTC approval to relaunch, and Kalshi, which offers a wide range of event categories [11][14] Trading in Prediction Markets - Participants can assess contract costs to gauge event probabilities, with lower costs indicating higher perceived risk [18] - The ability to sell contracts as event dates approach allows traders to capitalize on changing market sentiments [19]

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced modest gains in technology and growth sectors, while small caps and blue chips showed stagnation as investors prepared for significant economic data releases, particularly the September labor market report [1] - The S&P 500 rose by 0.3% to 6,660, and the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.6%, leading the major indexes [2] Notable Company Performances - Robinhood Markets Inc. surged by 9% after CEO Vlad Tenev announced over four billion event contracts traded on the platform since launch [2] - Kellanova gained over 5% following Italy's Ferrero Group's completion of a $3.1 billion acquisition of WK Kellogg Co. [2] - Carnival Corp. slid more than 5% despite exceeding Wall Street's quarterly expectations [3] Commodity and Digital Asset Movements - Precious metals saw significant increases, with gold rising nearly 2% to $3,830, marking an 11% increase for September, the best month since 2012; silver also increased by 2.1% above $47 [3] - Oil prices fell by 3.6% as crude exports resumed from Iraq's Kurdistan region and OPEC+ indicated potential supply increases [4] - Bitcoin advanced by 1.6% to $114,000, recovering some of last week's 2.6% decline [4] Performance of Major Indices and ETFs - The Dow Jones decreased by 0.1% to 46,220.76, while the Russell 2000 also fell by 0.1% to 2,430.84 [8] - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF rose by 0.1% to $609.59, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average inched down by 0.1% to $461.75 [8] Top Gainers and Losers in S&P 500 - Top gainers included Robinhood Markets Inc. (+8.89%), Western Digital Corp. (+6.76%), and Coinbase Global Inc. (+5.80%) [6] - Top losers included Carnival Corporation (-4.72%) and Williams-Sonoma Inc. (-4.65%) [9]

CME Group Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: CME Group (CME) - **Industry**: Futures Exchange Key Points Industry Performance - CME Group has experienced strong trading volumes, with a record year in 2024 and a record month in May 2025 [3][4] - Open interest has significantly increased, indicating robust market activity [3] Macro Economic Concerns - There are significant macroeconomic risks, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, which could impact market stability [4][5] - The U.S. faces a substantial debt of $37 trillion and a $2 trillion annual deficit, raising concerns about future economic conditions [6][40] Retail Trading Dynamics - Retail trading is evolving, with a notable shift from cash equities to options and now to futures, driven by technological advancements [8][9] - The sophistication of retail traders has increased, leading to a more stable participation in the markets [10][14] - Event contracts are gaining popularity among retail participants, but CME needs to target the right audience for these products to succeed [16][17] International Growth - CME's average daily volume (ADV) overseas has grown by 19% year-over-year, driven by both macroeconomic factors and internal initiatives [19][20] - The company has expanded its sales force significantly to enhance international outreach and education about its products [20] Crypto Market Position - CME is recognized as a leading player in the crypto derivatives market, with a cautious but optimistic outlook on the future of cryptocurrencies [22][25] - The importance of stablecoins and their potential to enhance the crypto market's efficiency is emphasized [26][33] Competitive Landscape - CME remains vigilant about competition, particularly in the interest rate complex, where new challengers have emerged [34][36] - The company has achieved significant efficiencies in its operations, saving clients $60 billion daily across various asset classes [36][40] Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) - CME is open to M&A opportunities but emphasizes the need for strategic alignment with user benefits [42][44] - The company has successfully integrated past acquisitions, enhancing its market position [42] Leadership and Succession - The current CEO, Terry Duffy, is focused on ensuring a smooth succession plan for the future leadership of CME [46][49] Additional Insights - The integration of technology and the rise of retail trading are reshaping the financial services landscape, with implications for how CME operates and competes [10][12] - The potential for marrying spot and derivatives markets in crypto is still under consideration, reflecting the evolving nature of these markets [28][30]