Regulated event contracts let users trade on market-implied probabilities for the big game NEW YORK, Jan. 27, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Webull (NASDAQ: BULL), an online investment platform, offers sports prediction markets through its partnership with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange. Webull gives users access to event contracts across sports, economic indicators, cryptocurrency, and other markets, including the Big Game, allowing them to trade on market-implied probabilities for major live e ...

Group 1: Robinhood Markets - Robinhood experienced significant growth in the past year, with third-quarter revenue approximately doubling year over year to about $1.27 billion and net income increasing by over 270% [2] - The company expanded its offerings, including popular event contracts and tokenization, contributing to strong customer engagement and a growing asset base [3] - Despite the growth, Robinhood's stock has become expensive, trading at 42.8 times forward earnings [3] Group 2: Tradeweb Markets - Tradeweb operates a professional trading platform that has achieved substantial growth and market share, finishing 2024 as the leading platform for U.S. electronic high-grade credit markets and holding a 22% share of U.S. Treasury trading volume [4] - Tradeweb faced challenges last year, with its stock declining 31% from its April peak due to high market volatility and decreased activity stemming from a government shutdown [5] - The company anticipates further growth opportunities as geopolitical tensions remain high, expecting normalized volatility and constructive conditions heading into 2026, supported by December trading volume hitting $63 trillion and a 27.5% year-over-year increase in average daily volume [6]

Core Insights - Event contracts are providing investors with more direct methods to trade based on corporate earnings results this season [1] Group 1 - The most popular bets among investors may be unexpected [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - Prediction markets are evolving from a niche interest to a significant financial signal, with increasing liquidity making them more relevant for investors [1][2] - The structural change in prediction markets is marked by a rise in liquidity, which is essential for these markets to transition from curiosity to tradable assets [2] - Event contracts are being recognized as a legitimate way to express investment convictions, similar to traditional stock investments, indicating a shift in mindset towards their utility [3] Group 2: Institutional Developments - There is growing institutional validation for prediction markets, highlighted by significant investments from major players like Intercontinental Exchange Inc and partnerships such as CME Group with FanDuel [4][5] - Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are achieving multi-billion-dollar valuations, further indicating the increasing acceptance and potential of prediction markets [4] Group 3: Changing Investor Behavior - Investor behavior is shifting, with event contracts being integrated into daily information consumption, akin to reading major financial publications [6] - As liquidity improves, this new habit of utilizing prediction markets is expected to spread, influencing trading behaviors and market perceptions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The prediction market sector is gaining traction, with significant involvement from major cryptocurrency players like Coinbase, making the Direxion Daily COIN Bull 2X ETF (CONX) a noteworthy investment opportunity for 2026 [1]. Group 1: Prediction Markets Overview - Prediction markets are exchanges where participants trade derivatives based on the outcomes of various events, including economic releases and elections [1]. - The prediction market space is increasingly intertwined with cryptocurrency activities, attracting major firms like Coinbase [1]. Group 2: Direxion Daily COIN Bull 2X ETF (CONX) - CONX aims to deliver 200% of Coinbase's daily share price movement, meaning a 1% increase in Coinbase's shares would result in a 2% increase in CONX [2]. - The ETF was launched in November and is positioned to attract risk-tolerant traders interested in prediction markets [4]. Group 3: Coinbase's Strategic Moves - Coinbase has partnered with Kalshi to offer event contracts, tapping into the existing interest of its retail clients in prediction markets and sports betting [3]. - The company is recognized for its compliance expertise and technological capabilities, which are essential for success in the prediction markets [4]. Group 4: Market Potential and Future Outlook - Research firm Clear Street identifies Coinbase as a top fintech idea for 2026, highlighting its established customer base as a catalyst for growth in prediction markets [5]. - Coinbase's 2026 Crypto Market Outlook suggests that prediction markets are entering a transformative phase, presenting multiple opportunities for CONX [6]. - The potential for increased institutional participation in prediction markets could enhance market structure and regulatory oversight, solidifying their role in the financial ecosystem [7].

Group 1 - Coinbase announced it will allow users to trade stocks and event contracts linked to real-world outcomes, marking a significant expansion beyond its cryptocurrency origins [1] - This move aims to enhance Coinbase's competitive position against rival exchanges in the financial market [1]

Robin Hood rolling out some new prediction markets features. Mackenzie Sagalas is here with those details. Mac, >> hey Scott.So, Robin Hood users can now trade what are essentially parlays and prop bets on the NFL inside the app. These are event contracts tied to game outcomes, totals, and spreads. And they're also adding contracts on individual players, like whether someone scores a touchdown or hits a yardage mark.Now, they say early next year, it will let users build custom combos. It's that stitch toget ...

Core Viewpoint - Gemini Space Station's stock surged by over 30% following the approval of a license to launch prediction markets in the U.S. [1] Company Developments - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granted Gemini Titan, an affiliate of Gemini, a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license, allowing it to offer event contracts to U.S. customers via its website and mobile app [3]. - Event contracts will include simple "yes" or "no" questions regarding future events, such as Bitcoin price predictions and outcomes in elections, sports, and geopolitical events [4]. Industry Insights - The prediction markets industry is experiencing rapid growth, with weekly trading volumes exceeding $2 billion for the first time in October [6]. - Industry leaders, including Thomas Peterffy of Interactive Brokers Group, predict that the event-contracts market could surpass the stock market in size within the next 15 years [6][7]. - Gemini's president, Cameron Winklevoss, believes that prediction markets could become as significant as traditional capital markets [7]. - The company aims to aggressively pursue the profit opportunities presented by prediction markets [8].

Core Insights - Robinhood has experienced significant stock price appreciation, with shares up nearly 90% over the past six months and 270% in 2025, resulting in a staggering 1,400% gain over three years [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q3, Robinhood's revenue doubled to $1.3 billion, and net income increased by 271% year-over-year [2] - Transaction-based revenue surged 129% to $730 million, making up 57% of total revenue, with cryptocurrency revenue increasing by 330% to $268 million, options revenue rising by 50% to $304 million, and equities revenue growing by 132% to $86 million [5] Business Model and Diversification - Robinhood has transitioned from a trading app to a diversified financial services platform, now offering 11 business lines each generating over $100 million in annualized revenue [4] - The company aims to generate half of its revenue from outside the U.S. and institutional investors within the next decade, supported by the acquisition of Bitstamp, a global cryptocurrency exchange [16] Market Sensitivity - Robinhood's performance is closely tied to retail trading activity and market sentiment, with trading volumes increasing during market upswings and declining during downturns [6][10] - The correlation between Robinhood's stock and Bitcoin suggests that crypto volatility will significantly impact its stock performance in 2026 [8][10] Event Contracts as Growth Engine - Robinhood has introduced event contracts, allowing users to bet on specific outcomes, with contract volume doubling each quarter and reaching 2.3 billion in Q3, potentially leading to a $300 million annual run rate [11][12] - Regulatory scrutiny exists, as Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection issued cease-and-desist orders regarding illegal sports wagering, which could affect future growth [13] Valuation and Future Outlook - Robinhood's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 59, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 24.1, indicating a premium valuation for a high-growth company [15] - The company is positioned for continued growth, with a focus on expanding its core business and diversifying its revenue streams [16]

Key Takeaways Connecticut ordered Robinhood to stop offering event contracts, citing unlicensed sports gambling concerns.State officials argue the products resemble prohibited wagers and were promoted to ineligible users.Robinhood says its event contracts fall under CFTC oversight and are offered through a regulated entity.Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) and two other prediction-market operators have come under the radar of Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection. Yesterday, the agency’s gaming divis ...