Core Business Performance - Tesla's core business, the auto segment, is experiencing a decline in EV sales year-over-year, with margins also decreasing from historically high levels post-pandemic [1] - After several quarters of weakening momentum, Tesla's deliveries are showing signs of recovery, with expectations for new EV models to boost global sales [4] - Despite a recent rally, Tesla's stock remains down nearly 8% from its all-time high, although it has gained 16.81% in 2025 [6] Future Growth Potential - Tesla's value is seen as a call option on various growth categories, including its energy business, Full Self-Driving (FSD) platform, and robotics initiatives [7] - Analysts project a 17.5% revenue increase to $117.2 billion in 2025, driven by growing demand and energy sector expansion [15] - Tesla's deliveries for 2025 are forecasted at 1.95 million units, which is below Bloomberg's consensus of 2.08 million [15] Market and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts remain largely bullish on Tesla, with several firms raising their price targets, including Stifel to $483 and Canaccord to $490, citing progress in the Robotaxi network and FSD software [12] - The median one-year price target for Tesla shares is $365.82, indicating potential downside of 17.43% from the current price, with a consensus "Hold" rating among analysts [18] - Institutional holdings for Tesla have decreased to 47.91%, indicating a loss of favorability among smart money [17] Macro and Political Environment - Tesla's relationship with the Trump administration has been viewed positively by the market, although the stock has trended lower following the election [8] - The expiration of electric vehicle tax credits and regulatory changes may impact Tesla's near-term fundamentals [13] Competitive Landscape - Tesla faces increasing competition from companies like Waymo and has seen a decline in its EV market share, particularly in California [16] - The company has received only 600 orders since launching in India, indicating challenges in global sales [5]