Ryder System (NYSE:R) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 23, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsRobert Sanchez - Chairman and CEOJohn Diez - President and COOSteve Sensing - President, Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation SolutionsCristina Gallo-Aquino - EVP and CFOTom Havens - PresidentJordan Alliger - Managing DirectorCalene Candela - Vice President, Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsHarrison Bauer - Research AnalystNone - AnalystBrian Ossenbeck - Managing Director and Senior Equit ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ryder reported operating revenue of $2.6 billion in Q3 2025, up 1% from the prior year, primarily due to contractual revenue growth in Supply Chain Solutions (SCS) and Fleet Management Solutions (FMS) [13] - Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $3.57, up 4% from $3.44 in the prior year, reflecting higher contractual earnings and benefits from share repurchases [13] - Return on equity (ROE) was 17%, up from the prior year, driven by higher contractual earnings and share repurchases, partially offset by lower rental demand and used vehicle sales [14] - Year-to-date free cash flow increased to $496 million from $218 million in the prior year due to reduced capital expenditures and lower income tax payments [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fleet Management Solutions operating revenue was in line with the prior year, with pretax earnings of $146 million, up year-over-year due to higher ChoiceLease performance, offset by lower used vehicle sales and rental results [14][15] - Supply Chain operating revenue increased 4%, driven by new business in omni-channel retail, but earnings decreased 8% due to e-commerce network performance and higher medical costs [19] - Dedicated operating revenue decreased 6% due to lower fleet count, but earnings before tax (EBT) was in line with the prior year, reflecting acquisition synergies [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that 93% of its revenue is generated in the U.S., positioning it well to benefit from increased domestic industrial manufacturing [6] - Rental demand was lower than historical seasonal trends, with rental utilization on the power fleet at 70%, down from 71% in the prior year [15] - Used vehicle pricing saw a year-over-year decline of 6% for tractors and 15% for trucks, although sequential pricing for trucks increased by 7% [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ryder is focused on creating value through operational excellence and investment in customer-centric technology, aiming for earnings growth driven by resilient contractual businesses and strategic initiatives [5][6] - The company expects its transformed business model to deliver ROE in the low to mid-20s when market conditions improve, with over 90% of operating revenue generated by multiyear contracts [7] - A new discretionary $2 billion share repurchase program was authorized, reflecting the company's commitment to disciplined capital allocation [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to outperform prior cycles, citing a strong foundation from its transformed business model [8] - The outlook for 2025 includes a comparable EPS forecast of $12.85 to $13.05, driven by higher contractual earnings and benefits from strategic initiatives [29] - Management acknowledged ongoing headwinds from the freight market downturn but remains optimistic about robust sales and pipeline activity in SCS [29][30] Other Important Information - The company has returned $457 million to shareholders in 2025 through share repurchases and dividends, with a 57% increase in the quarterly dividend since 2021 [9] - The forecast for free cash flow remains unchanged at $900 million to $1 billion, reflecting lower capital expenditures and an estimated annual benefit of $200 million from tax bonus depreciation [10][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of CDL regulations on the business model - Management indicated that tighter driver markets could benefit the dedicated business as companies seek assistance in driver recruitment, with minimal impact expected on the lease side [38][40] Question: Drivers of earnings growth for next year - Management expects contractual earnings growth and strong performance in supply chain to drive revenue and earnings growth, despite muted sales in lease and dedicated due to freight market softness [42][45] Question: Used vehicle pricing and tariffs - Management noted that any price increases would likely be passed through to lease rates, and higher new truck pricing could eventually support used truck prices [52][56] Question: Supply Chain Solutions headwinds - Management acknowledged temporary headwinds in e-commerce network performance but remains optimistic about future growth and margin targets [65][66] Question: Bonus depreciation impact - The bonus depreciation is expected to provide a cash tax benefit of approximately $200 million annually, with no significant impact on operating margins [84][86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ryder reported operating revenue of $2.6 billion in Q3 2025, up 1% from the prior year, primarily due to growth in contractual revenue [11] - Comparable EPS from continuing operations increased to $3.57, up 4% from $3.44 in the prior year, reflecting higher contractual earnings and benefits from share repurchases [11] - Return on equity (ROE) was 17%, up from the prior year, driven by higher contractual earnings and share repurchases, partially offset by lower rental demand and used vehicle sales [11] - Year-to-date free cash flow increased to $496 million from $218 million in the prior year due to reduced capital expenditures and lower income tax payments [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fleet Management Solutions (FMS) operating revenue was in line with the prior year, with pre-tax earnings of $146 million, reflecting higher ChoiceLease performance [12] - Supply Chain Solutions (SCS) operating revenue increased 4%, driven by new business in omnichannel retail, but earnings decreased 8% due to e-commerce network performance and higher medical costs [15] - Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS) operating revenue decreased 6% due to lower fleet count, but EBT was in line with the prior year, reflecting acquisition synergies [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - 93% of Ryder's revenue is generated in the U.S., positioning the company to benefit from increased domestic industrial manufacturing [5] - The rental demand was lower than historical seasonal trends, with rental utilization on the power fleet at 70%, down from 71% the prior year [12] - Used vehicle pricing declined 6% for tractors and 15% for trucks year-over-year, reflecting ongoing weakness in market conditions [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ryder's balanced growth strategy focuses on operational excellence and investment in customer-centric technology, aiming to improve full-cycle returns and unlock long-term shareholder value [5] - The company expects earnings growth in 2025 driven by resilient contractual businesses and strategic initiatives, with a forecasted ROE of 17% [22] - Ryder has authorized a new discretionary share repurchase program, reflecting a commitment to disciplined capital allocation [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's cycle-tested business model, which has demonstrated resiliency during the freight cycle downturn [6] - The company anticipates continued earnings growth from multi-year strategic initiatives, with expected annual pre-tax earnings benefits of approximately $150 million [24] - Management noted that while there are near-term headwinds in lease and dedicated sales due to market conditions, robust sales activity in SCS is encouraging [22] Other Important Information - Ryder's forecast for free cash flow remains unchanged at $900 million to $1 billion, reflecting lower capital spending and an annual cash flow benefit of approximately $200 million from tax bonus depreciation [8] - The company has repurchased approximately 22% of its shares outstanding since 2021 and increased the quarterly dividend by 57% [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of CDL regulations on business model - Management indicated that tighter driver markets could benefit the dedicated business as companies seek assistance in driver recruitment [30][32] Question: Drivers of earnings growth for 2026 - Management expects contractual earnings growth and benefits from strategic initiatives to drive earnings growth, with strong performance anticipated in supply chain solutions [34][35] Question: Challenges in used vehicle pricing - Management acknowledged challenges in used vehicle pricing but noted that higher new truck pricing could eventually support used truck values [39][40] Question: Supply chain performance and headwinds - Management highlighted that recent headwinds in supply chain performance were temporary and attributed to specific customer issues, with expectations for recovery [49][50] Question: Bonus depreciation impact on financials - Management clarified that the bonus depreciation will provide a cash tax benefit of approximately $200 million annually, with no significant impact on operating margins [61][62]

Core Insights - Ryder System reported total revenue of $3.17 billion, showing a slight increase from $3.168 billion a year ago, while non-GAAP earnings per share rose to $3.57 from $3.44 [1] Revenue Performance - Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS) experienced a 10% decline in revenue to $570 million, reflecting challenges in the trucking market [2] - DTS revenue decreased sequentially from $606 million in the second quarter, which was down from $635 million in the same quarter of 2024 [3] - Fleet Management Solutions saw a minor revenue drop of $5 million year-on-year, but earnings before taxes increased by 11% to $146 million [5] - Supply Chain Solutions achieved the highest revenue growth among the divisions, with a 5% increase to $1.38 billion, although earnings before taxes fell by 8% to $86 million [6] Operational Insights - Ryder's CEO noted that benefits from strong operating performance and acquisition synergies in DTS were offset by fleet reductions due to weaker freight market conditions [4] - Used vehicle pricing for tractors and trucks decreased by 6% and 15%, respectively, compared to the second quarter of 2024, although tractor pricing remained unchanged sequentially and truck pricing increased by 7% [7] Cost Management - Fuel expenses decreased significantly from $116 million a year ago to $94 million in the second quarter of 2025, providing a positive impact on Ryder's financials [8] - The company adjusted its fiscal non-GAAP EPS forecast to a range of $12.85-$13.05, slightly down from the previous range of $12.85-$13.30, while most other forecast numbers remained unchanged [8]

Core Insights - Ryder reported revenue of $3.19 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.2% and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $3.32, up from $3.00 in the same quarter last year, representing a surprise of 6.75% over the consensus estimate of $3.11 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Commercial rental utilization was reported at 70%, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of 68% [4] - Operating Revenue for Fleet Management Solutions was $1.29 billion, matching the average estimate and showing a year-over-year increase of 0.9% [4] - Operating Revenue for Dedicated Transportation Solutions was $470 million, slightly above the average estimate of $460.58 million, but down 3.1% year over year [4] - Operating Revenue for Supply Chain Solutions was $1.02 billion, aligning with the average estimate and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3% [4] - Revenues for Fleet Management Solutions totaled $1.47 billion, consistent with the average estimate but down 0.7% year over year [4] - Revenues for Supply Chain Solutions reached $1.37 billion, slightly above the average estimate of $1.36 billion, marking a 1.9% year-over-year increase [4] - Revenues from Fleet Management Solutions - SelectCare and other amounted to $178 million, close to the average estimate, with a year-over-year increase of 1.1% [4] - Revenues from Eliminations were reported at -$250 million, better than the average estimate of -$261.4 million, but down 8.1% year over year [4] - Revenues from Fleet Management Solutions - Commercial rental were $239 million, exceeding the average estimate but down 2.1% year over year [4] - Revenues from Fleet Management Solutions - ChoiceLease were $871 million, slightly below the average estimate, with a year-over-year increase of 1.8% [4] - Revenues from Fleet Management Solutions - Fuel services were $179 million, below the average estimate, reflecting an 11.4% year-over-year decline [4] - Revenues from Dedicated Transportation Solutions were $606 million, slightly above the average estimate, but down 4.6% year over year [4] Stock Performance - Ryder's shares have returned +10.9% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.7% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast that Ryder will report quarterly earnings of $3.11 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, while revenues are expected to be $3.17 billion, showing a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.3% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation of initial estimates by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts project 'Operating Revenue- Fleet Management Solutions' at $1.29 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of +0.9% [5]. - The estimate for 'Operating Revenue- Dedicated Transportation Solutions' is $460.58 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 5% [5]. - 'Operating Revenue- Supply Chain Solutions' is expected to reach $1.02 billion, showing a change of +3.3% from the previous year [6]. - The estimate for 'Revenues- Fleet Management Solutions' is $1.47 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of -0.6% [7]. - 'Revenues- Dedicated Transportation Solutions' is projected at $604.69 million, reflecting a decrease of 4.8% from the prior year [8]. - 'Revenues- Fleet Management Solutions- ChoiceLease' is expected to reach $880.92 million, indicating a year-over-year change of +2.9% [9]. Key Metrics - 'Commercial rental - Rental Utilization - Power Units' is estimated at 68.0%, down from 69.0% a year ago [10]. - Over the past month, Ryder shares have returned +9.8%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.9% change [10].