Core Viewpoint - Confluent, Inc. is currently a prominent AI stock on Wall Street, with IBM announcing its acquisition for $11 billion, paying $31 per share for all outstanding common shares [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - IBM's acquisition of Confluent is valued at $11 billion, with a cash offer of $31 per share for all issued and outstanding common shares [1]. - Bernstein has reiterated an "Outperform" rating on Confluent with a price target of $31.00 following the acquisition announcement [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Technology - Confluent has been a long-standing acquisition target due to its relatively low multiple and strong market position [2]. - The company's technology, particularly its open-source middleware technology like Kafka and Flink, has gained further attention after OpenAI committed to using it for its next-generation model infrastructure [3]. - Confluent's technology is crucial for generative AI, which is more effectively delivered through Cloud Native technology, reinforcing its relevance in the tech landscape [4]. Group 3: Correlation with Major Platforms - Confluent enjoys a strong correlation with AWS, enhancing its position within the technology sector [4].

We came across a bullish thesis on Confluent, Inc. on Compounding Your Wealth’s Substack by Sergey. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CFLT. Confluent, Inc.'s share was trading at $21.87 as of December 1st. CFLT’s forward P/E was 45.45 according to Yahoo Finance. Photo by Luke Chesser on Unsplash Confluent (CFLT) delivered a strong Q3 2025 performance with $298.5 million in revenue, up 19.3% year over year and ahead of estimates, driven by robust subscription growth and operational ...

Core Viewpoint - Confluent's stock surged 8% following the release of its third-quarter earnings, which exceeded analyst expectations in both earnings and sales, indicating a potential turnaround for the company after a challenging year [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Confluent reported adjusted earnings of 13 cents per share for the third quarter, a 30% increase year-over-year, surpassing estimates of 10 cents per share [2]. - Sales for the quarter rose 19% to $298.5 million, exceeding analyst expectations of $292.9 million [2]. Company Overview - Confluent specializes in cloud-based data streaming software, which is essential for enterprises to manage and process data efficiently [3]. - The company has been recognized as a potential player in the artificial intelligence sector due to the increasing demand for data-driven solutions [3]. Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Prior to the earnings report, Confluent's stock had declined 21% this year, with a significant drop of over 30% following its second-quarter earnings report due to a disappointing sales outlook [4]. - Following the recent earnings report, Confluent's stock was trading just below a buy point of 24.14, indicating a potential breakout [6]. Analyst Ratings and Outlook - Analysts have shown a positive outlook on Confluent, with Mizuho raising its price target from 24 to 26, citing strong results and growing momentum for its Flink data streaming service [8]. - Barclays also expressed optimism, raising its price target from 24 to 27, while acknowledging that the revenue beat was not exceptional [9]. - William Blair highlighted the potential for patient investors, suggesting that the current valuation may provide a safety net for the stock [10].

Core Insights - Confluent Inc reported better-than-expected earnings for Q3, with earnings of 13 cents per share, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of 10 cents per share [1] - The company achieved quarterly sales of $298.537 million, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $292.871 million [1] - Confluent raised its FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance from $0.36 to a range of $0.39-$0.40 [1] Financial Performance - Confluent experienced a 24% year-over-year growth in Confluent Cloud revenue [2] - There was a 43% year-over-year growth acceleration in remaining performance obligations, indicating strong consumption growth and customer commitment [2] Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, Confluent shares increased by 11% to $24.51 in pre-market trading [2] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Morgan Stanley maintained an Equal-Weight rating and raised the price target from $25 to $27 [5] - Piper Sandler maintained an Overweight rating and increased the price target from $27 to $28 [5] - Baird maintained a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $20 to $26 [5] - Stephens & Co. maintained an Overweight rating and boosted the price target from $25 to $29 [5] - Barclays maintained an Overweight rating and increased the price target from $24 to $27 [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 subscription revenue grew 19% to $286.3 million, with Confluent Cloud revenue increasing 24% to $161 million, representing 56% of subscription revenue compared to 54% in the previous year [20][21] - Non-GAAP operating margin expanded 3 percentage points to approximately 10%, with subscription gross margin at 81.8% [4][21] - Adjusted free cash flow margin increased 450 basis points to 8.2%, and net income per share was $0.13 [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Confluent Platform revenue grew 14% to $125.4 million, driven by strong demand in financial services [20] - Flink ARR for Confluent Cloud grew more than 70% sequentially, with over 1,000 customers using Flink [7][26] - The $100K+ ARR customer count increased to 1,487, marking the largest sequential increase in two years [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the U.S. grew 13% to $172.1 million, while revenue from outside the U.S. grew 29% to $126.4 million [21] - The company reported a net retention rate (NRR) of 114% and a gross retention rate (GRR) close to 90% [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on tightening field alignment to drive more use cases into production and expanding its Data Streaming Platform (DSP) specialist team for multi-product selling [5][7] - Confluent aims to position its Data Streaming Platform as the context layer for enterprise AI, facilitating real-time data processing and decision-making [17][19] - The company is also enhancing its partner ecosystem, with partners sourcing over 25% of new business in the last 12 months [9][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong consumption growth and the traction of the Data Streaming Platform, particularly with Flink [18][29] - The outlook for Q4 2025 includes expected subscription revenue in the range of $295.5 to $296.5 million, representing growth of approximately 18% [23] - For fiscal year 2025, subscription revenue is expected to be in the range of $1.1135 to $1.1145 billion, representing growth of approximately 21% [24] Other Important Information - The company highlighted the successful integration and growth of WarpStream, which has seen 8x growth in consumption since its acquisition [12][29] - Confluent was named a MongoDB Partner of the Year and served as an AWS Launch Partner for the new AI Agents and Tools category [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the learnings from the go-to-market changes and conversion trends? - Management noted high confidence in the late-stage pipeline, emphasizing that these are customer workloads reaching production, which will drive future consumption [32] Question: Why should RPO be considered a reliable leading indicator? - RPO is viewed as a key leading indicator for Confluent Platform, while for Confluent Cloud, the focus is on the momentum of new use cases moving into production [34][36] Question: When can growth be expected to bottom? - Management expressed optimism about the cloud business's strength and noted stability in overall growth rates, despite some customer-specific impacts [40] Question: Is there a cannibalization effect from new offerings? - Management indicated that new offerings have proven to be a substantial tailwind, leading to larger deal sizes and increased customer engagement [42] Question: What is the early response to the launch of streaming agents on Confluent Cloud? - Management believes streaming agents can become a significant part of the mix, facilitating real-time data access for AI applications [50][52] Question: How significant is the cloud service provider replacement opportunity? - Management highlighted that the total cost of ownership (TCO) improvements and enhanced Data Streaming Platform capabilities are driving customer interest in migrating from existing solutions [78] Question: How are optimization levels impacting guidance? - Management described current optimization levels as healthy and normalized compared to historical trends, indicating a balanced approach to managing customer growth [84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 subscription revenue grew 19% to $286.3 million, with Confluent Cloud revenue increasing 24% to $161 million, representing 56% of subscription revenue compared to 54% in the previous year [21][24] - Non-GAAP operating margin expanded 3 percentage points to approximately 10%, with subscription gross margin at 81.8% [4][22] - Adjusted free cash flow margin increased 450 basis points to 8.2%, and net income per share was $0.13 [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Confluent Platform revenue grew 14% to $125.4 million, driven by demand in financial services [21] - Flink ARR for Confluent Cloud grew more than 70% sequentially, with over 1,000 customers using Flink [27][28] - The count of $100K+ ARR customers increased to 1,487, marking the largest sequential increase in two years [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the U.S. grew 13% to $172.1 million, while revenue from outside the U.S. grew 29% to $126.4 million [22] - The net retention rate stabilized at 114%, with gross retention rate remaining close to 90% [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on tightening field alignment to drive more use cases into production and expanding its Data Streaming Platform (DSP) specialist team for multi-product selling [5][6] - The partner ecosystem sourced over 25% of new business in the last 12 months, indicating strong growth potential [9][29] - The company aims to position its Data Streaming Platform as the context layer for enterprise AI, enhancing real-time data capabilities [19][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong cloud consumption growth and the traction of the Data Streaming Platform, particularly with Flink [19][30] - The outlook for Q4 2025 includes expected subscription revenue in the range of $295.5 million to $296.5 million, representing growth of approximately 18% [24] - For fiscal year 2025, subscription revenue is expected to be in the range of $1.1135 billion to $1.1145 billion, representing growth of approximately 21% [25] Other Important Information - The company reported a record operating margin of 9.7%, exceeding guidance by 270 basis points [22] - The WarpStream acquisition has seen 8x growth in consumption over the past year, indicating successful integration and market demand [12][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on go-to-market changes and pipeline conversion trends - Management highlighted the successful implementation of a specialization model for DSP and the importance of field execution in driving consumption pipeline [33] Question: RPO as a leading indicator for growth - RPO is considered a key leading indicator for Confluent Platform, while for Confluent Cloud, the focus is on the momentum of new use cases moving into production [37] Question: Growth stabilization and cannibalization effects - Management noted that new offerings have proven to be a substantial tailwind, leading to larger deal sizes and increased customer engagement [43] Question: Flink's growth and future potential - The company expressed excitement about Flink's growth trajectory and its potential to capture a significant market opportunity in real-time data processing [57] Question: Impact of U.S. Federal shutdown on guidance - Management indicated that the federal performance in Q3 was in line with expectations, and the impact of the shutdown is accounted for in Q4 guidance [80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 subscription revenue grew 19% to $286 million, representing 96% of total revenue [24][4] - Confluent Cloud revenue increased 24% to $161 million, accounting for 56% of subscription revenue compared to 54% in the previous year [24][4] - Non-GAAP operating margin expanded three percentage points to approximately 10% [4] - Subscription gross margin was 81.8%, above the long-term target of 80% [26] - Operating margin increased 340 basis points to a record 9.7%, exceeding guidance by 270 basis points [26] - Adjusted free cash flow margin increased 450 basis points to 8.2% [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Confluent Platform revenue grew 14% to $125.4 million, driven by demand in financial services [24] - Flink ARR for Confluent Cloud grew more than 70% sequentially, with over 1,000 customers using Flink [31][7] - The number of customers with $100k+ ARR increased to 2,533, up 36 sequentially [27] - The number of customers with $1 million+ ARR increased to 234, representing a growth acceleration of 27% [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the U.S. grew 13% to $172.1 million, while revenue from outside the U.S. grew 29% to $126.4 million [24] - Net retention rate stabilized at 114%, with gross retention rate close to 90% [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on tightening field alignment to drive more use cases into production and expanding its DSP specialist team for multiproduct selling [6][7] - The partner ecosystem sourced over 25% of new business in the last twelve months, indicating strong growth potential [10][11] - The company aims to position itself as a leader in providing real-time data context for AI applications, emphasizing the importance of data streaming in AI deployment [20][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong cloud consumption growth and the overall performance of the data streaming platform [22][36] - The company expects subscription revenue for 2025 to be in the range of $295.5 million to $296.5 million, representing approximately 18% growth [29] - For fiscal year 2025, subscription revenue is expected to be between $1.1135 billion and $1.1145 billion, indicating approximately 21% growth [29] Other Important Information - The company highlighted the successful integration and growth of WarpStream, which has seen eightfold growth in consumption since its acquisition [14][35] - The company has maintained a win rate above 90% in replacing CSP streaming offerings, with average deal sizes more than doubling over the past two quarters [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on go-to-market changes and pipeline conversion trends - Management noted that the specialization model for DSP and field execution improvements have driven strong pipeline progression, with high confidence in the late-stage pipeline [40][41] Question: RPO and CRPO as leading indicators - Management confirmed that RPO is a key leading indicator for the Confluent platform, while for Confluent Cloud, the focus is on new use cases moving into production [45][46] Question: Growth outlook and cannibalization effects - Management indicated that new offerings have proven to be a substantial tailwind, leading to larger deal sizes and increased customer engagement [54] Question: Flink adoption and future business impact - Management expressed excitement about Flink's growth and its potential to drive significant business opportunities in the future [76][78] Question: AI use cases and customer readiness - Management highlighted various AI use cases across industries, emphasizing the importance of data flow and quality in achieving successful AI deployments [86][87]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 subscription revenue grew 19% to $286.3 million, representing 96% of total revenue [19][20] - Confluent Cloud revenue increased 24% to $161 million, accounting for 56% of subscription revenue compared to 54% in the previous year [19][20] - Non-GAAP operating margin expanded 3 percentage points to approximately 10% [3] - Subscription gross margin was 81.8%, exceeding the long-term target of 80% [20] - Operating margin increased 340 basis points to a record of 9.7% [20] - Adjusted free cash flow margin rose 450 basis points to 8.2% [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Confluent Platform revenue grew 14% to $125.4 million, driven by demand in financial services [19] - Flink ARR for Confluent Cloud grew more than 70% sequentially, with over 1,000 customers using Flink [25][26] - The number of $100K+ ARR customers increased to 1,487, marking the largest sequential increase in two years [21] - The $1 million+ ARR customer count rose to 234, representing a 27% growth acceleration [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the U.S. grew 13% to $172.1 million, while revenue from outside the U.S. grew 29% to $126.4 million [20] - RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations) grew 43%, indicating strong future revenue visibility [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on tightening field alignment to drive more use cases into production, with over 40% sequential growth in late-stage pipeline [4][24] - There is a strong emphasis on expanding the Data Streaming Platform (DSP) and multi-product selling, particularly with Flink [5][26] - The partner ecosystem is contributing significantly, with over 25% of new business sourced from partners [8][26] - The company aims to position its Data Streaming Platform as the context layer for enterprise AI, facilitating the transition from AI experimentation to production [16][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong cloud consumption growth and the traction of the Data Streaming Platform, particularly with Flink [17][27] - The outlook for Q4 2025 includes expected subscription revenue in the range of $295.5 to $296.5 million, representing approximately 18% growth [22] - For fiscal year 2025, subscription revenue is expected to be between $1.1135 to $1.1145 billion, indicating approximately 21% growth [23] Other Important Information - The company ended Q3 with $1.99 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, reflecting a strong balance sheet [20] - The WarpStream acquisition has seen 8x growth in consumption since its acquisition [11][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on go-to-market changes and pipeline conversion trends - Management highlighted the effectiveness of the specialization model for DSP and the high confidence in the late-stage pipeline, which is expected to drive future consumption [29][30] Question: RPO and CRPO as leading indicators - RPO is considered a key leading indicator for Confluent Platform, while for Confluent Cloud, the focus is on the momentum of new use cases moving into production [31][32] Question: Growth stabilization and cloud business outlook - Management noted that the cloud business has shown stability, with positive trends in new use cases and product adoption [34] Question: Impact of new offerings on core streaming business - New offerings have proven to be a substantial tailwind, leading to larger deal sizes and increased customer engagement [37] Question: Flink's growth and future potential - Flink has seen significant adoption, with over 1,000 paying customers, and management is optimistic about its future growth potential [56] Question: AI use cases and customer readiness - Management indicated that AI use cases are broad, with many enterprises actively pursuing projects across various sectors [61]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Subscription revenue grew 21% to $270.8 million, representing 96% of total revenue [26] - Confluent Cloud revenue increased 28% to $150.5 million, accounting for 56% of subscription revenue compared to 52% in the previous year [26] - Non-GAAP operating margin improved to 6%, up approximately six percentage points [5][28] - Adjusted free cash flow margin increased to 3.9% [28] - Net income per share was $0.09 with a diluted share count of approximately 380 million [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Confluent Platform revenue grew 12% to $120.3 million, driven by strong performance in financial services and OEM partners [26] - Flink ARR grew approximately 3x over the past two quarters, approaching $10 million [5][16] - RPO growth accelerated to 31%, indicating deepening customer relationships [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the US grew 15% to $164.3 million, while revenue from outside the US grew 29% to $117.9 million [27] - Total customer growth was in line with the average growth rate of the previous four quarters [29] - 20k+ ARR customer count grew approximately 8% to 2,497, representing over 95% of ARR [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on three key areas: replacing CSP streaming offerings, enhancing the partner ecosystem, and expanding Flink [10][12][34] - The partner ecosystem has sourced over 20% of the business in the past year, with significant partnerships established [14][35] - The company aims to capture a meaningful share of the $100 billion data streaming market [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that larger customers are optimizing their usage, which is expected to impact consumption growth in the near term [6][30] - Despite consumption headwinds, management remains confident in the strength of the business and the potential for growth in AI workloads [23][34] - The outlook for Confluent Cloud assumes month-over-month growth rates will remain notably below historical averages for the remainder of the year [31] Other Important Information - The company is seeing early success in operational enhancements aimed at improving customer engagement and driving use case expansions [9][33] - The Flink offering is central to the company's strategy for real-time data processing, with significant growth observed [17][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the consumption optimization trends? - Management indicated that the optimization is a broader trend seen across various companies, with some customers reducing their Confluent Cloud usage due to internal changes [37][40] Question: How do you see production AI workloads impacting subscription growth? - Management believes that the relevance of streaming and processing in AI applications will positively impact subscription growth moving forward [43][45] Question: What is the outlook for NRR and GRR metrics? - Management expects near-term pressure on NRR and GRR due to current consumption patterns but sees potential tailwinds from operational improvements and customer commitments [98][99] Question: How is the company addressing the challenges in the 20k+ customer segment? - Management acknowledged the need to focus on this segment and is implementing strategies to drive growth, particularly through CSP takeouts [78][80]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Confluent reported a 21% growth in subscription revenue, reaching $270.8 million, which represented 96% of total revenue [25] - Non-GAAP operating margin increased to 6%, up approximately six percentage points year-over-year [4][28] - Adjusted free cash flow margin rose to 3.9%, reflecting operational efficiencies [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Confluent Cloud revenue grew 28% to $150.5 million, accounting for 56% of subscription revenue, up from 52% in the previous year [25] - Confluent Platform revenue increased by 12% to $120.3 million, driven by strong performance in financial services and OEM partnerships [25] - Flink ARR grew approximately 3x over the past two quarters, approaching $10 million [15][31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the US grew 15% to $164.3 million, while revenue from outside the US increased by 29% to $117.9 million [26] - Total customer growth remained consistent with previous quarters, with 20k+ ARR customer count growing 8% to 2,497 [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiencies and improving coverage ratios between account executives and post-sales roles to drive customer engagement [6][7] - Confluent is doubling down on three strategic areas: replacing CSP streaming offerings, expanding the partner ecosystem, and growing the Flink business [8][12][15] - The partner ecosystem has sourced over 20% of business in the past year, indicating a strong collaborative approach to market penetration [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged near-term consumption headwinds but expressed confidence in the long-term growth trajectory, particularly in AI workloads and DSP monetization [22][35] - The company expects production AI use cases to grow 10x across a few hundred customers, indicating a significant market opportunity [19][33] - Management raised full-year growth expectations for Confluent Platform, reflecting strong pipeline visibility [31] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $1.94 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, providing a strong financial position [29] - Non-GAAP net income per diluted share was reported at $0.09, with expectations for continued growth in the upcoming quarters [28][31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the consumption optimization trends? - Management noted that optimization efforts are similar to trends seen across the industry, with some customers focusing on maximizing value from existing purchases [40][41] Question: How do you see production AI workloads impacting subscription growth? - Management believes that the relevance of streaming in AI applications will positively influence subscription growth moving forward [43][45] Question: What is the outlook for net revenue retention (NRR)? - NRR is expected to face near-term pressure due to current consumption patterns, but management is optimistic about future tailwinds from operational improvements and customer commitments [93][94] Question: How is the go-to-market strategy evolving? - Management indicated that changes in sales compensation to focus on incremental consumption have been beneficial, and they are optimistic about driving new use cases [62][63] Question: What are the expectations for structural changes from field realignment efforts? - Management is already seeing positive momentum from recent changes and expects these adjustments to yield meaningful results in the near future [107][108]