Group 1 - The investment case for Ford is complex, balancing a low valuation and historical strength against challenges in a dynamic automotive industry [1] - Ford's segment performance in the first half of 2026 shows a strong commercial business in Ford Pro, while the Ford Model e segment is struggling with significant losses of $5.1 billion [2][3] - Ford Pro generated $34 billion in revenue with a 10.7% EBIT margin, while Ford Blue had $46.8 billion in revenue with a 1.6% EBIT margin, contrasting with Ford Model e's $3.6 billion revenue and a -60.5% EBIT margin [3] Group 2 - There is an argument for separating Ford Pro from the rest of the company to unlock value, as Ford transitions from internal combustion engines (ICE) to electric vehicles (EVs) [4] - Ford stock trades at 10.3 times estimated earnings for 2025, primarily driven by the Pro business, which has growth potential through recurring revenue from services [5] - CEO Jim Farley emphasizes the importance of keeping Ford Pro integrated, highlighting the risks of investing in Ford amid the need for significant EV investment [6] Group 3 - Ford has committed to a $5 billion investment in EV development, including a new $30,000 pickup truck planned for 2027 and a Universal EV Production System [7] - The crossover activities among Ford's segments indicate a strategic approach to leverage strengths across the business [9][10] - The growth in the auto market is shifting towards EVs, making it imperative for Ford to remain relevant and competitive against rivals [10][11] Group 4 - Ford's Pro segment is crucial for cash flow to support EV investments, and its dominant position in commercial vans and light trucks is at risk from competitors [11] - The investment in Ford is not merely a bet on hidden value but rather a commitment to becoming a significant player in the EV market [12]

Core Insights - Ford Motor Company (F) shares have increased by 23.4% over the past six months, while the Zacks Automotive – Domestic industry has grown by 38.4% [1] - In the first eight months of 2025, Ford's sales reached 1.49 million units, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.6%, driven by a 14% rise in electrified vehicle sales [2] - Ford's Model e segment saw revenues more than double to $2.4 billion in Q2, with significant margin improvements attributed to product mix and new model launches [6][7] Sales and Performance - Ford's vehicle lineup, including F-series trucks and various SUV models, is performing well, supported by a strong hybrid strategy [5] - Ford Pro, the commercial fleet solutions unit, has diversified its revenue streams, contributing to 17% of its EBIT, moving closer to a 20% target for next year [8] Challenges and Concerns - Ford anticipates a net tariff impact of $2 billion for 2025, up from a previous estimate of $1.5 billion, with a gross tariff cost forecast raised to $3 billion [10] - The company has issued over 100 recalls in 2025, including a recent recall of 1.45 million vehicles, which is expected to increase warranty and recall expenses, putting pressure on margins [11] Valuation and Estimates - Ford appears undervalued with a forward price/sales ratio of 0.29, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.66 [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford's EPS has seen slight upward adjustments for 2025 and 2026, indicating a positive outlook [13]

Core Insights - Ford Motor Company reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 37 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 34 cents but down from 47 cents in the previous year [2] - Consolidated revenues for the second quarter reached $50.18 billion, a 5% increase year over year, with total automotive revenues at $46.94 billion, surpassing estimates [2] Segment Performance - Ford Blue segment's wholesale volume decreased by 6% year over year to 696,000 units, with revenues declining 3% to $25.8 billion, although it exceeded expectations [3] - Ford Model e segment saw a significant increase in wholesale volume, rising 218% to 60,000 units, with revenues jumping 105% to $2.4 billion, despite a loss before interest and taxes of $1.33 billion [4] - Ford Pro segment's wholesale volume increased by 15% to 429,000 units, with revenues rising 11% to $18.8 billion, and earnings before interest and taxes at $2.32 billion [5] - Ford Credit unit reported revenues of $3.24 billion, an 8.3% increase year over year, with pretax earnings up 88% to approximately $645 million [6] Financial Position - Ford reported adjusted free cash flow of $2.83 billion for the quarter, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $23 billion as of June 30, 2025, and long-term debt at $16.74 billion [7] 2025 Outlook - The company expects full-year 2025 adjusted EBIT to be in the range of $6.5-$7.5 billion, down from $10.2 billion in 2024, factoring in a net tariff-related headwind of nearly $2 billion [8] - Adjusted free cash flow is anticipated to be between $3.5-$4.5 billion, down from $6.7 billion in 2024, with capital expenditures expected around $9 billion [8] Estimate Trends - Estimates for Ford have trended downward over the past month, indicating a cautious outlook [9][12] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [12] Industry Performance - Ford is part of the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry, where General Motors reported a revenue decline of 1.8% year over year, with an EPS drop from $3.06 to $2.53 [13] - General Motors is expected to post earnings of $2.32 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a year-over-year change of -21.6% [14]

Core Insights - Ford Pro is the primary growth engine for Ford Motor Company, with significant transformation in revenue streams over the past year [1][3] - The segment's disciplined investment strategy has led to increased market share in both the U.S. and Europe [2][3] - Ford Pro's revenues grew by 11% year over year, reaching nearly $19 billion, with a strong EBIT margin of 12.3% [3][9] Revenue and Market Share - Ford Pro's aftermarket parts, software, and services contributed to 17% of its EBIT, approaching the 20% target for next year [1] - Market share increased by 1 percentage point in the U.S. and 3.2 points in Europe, supported by a diverse vehicle lineup [2][9] - The segment's capital investment has accelerated, with dealers contributing $2 billion since 2022 to enhance service capacity [2][9] Performance Metrics - Uptime, a key metric for commercial customers, improved with a 20% reduction in customer repair times over the past year [2][9] - Ford Pro's EBIT margin of 12.3% was driven by a strong product lineup and disciplined pricing [3][9] - The company expects strong demand in the second half of the year, aided by policy changes and a potential recovery in small business activity [3] Competitive Landscape - Ford Pro's growth is contrasted with competitors, as General Motors retains a leading market share of 17.3% in the U.S. [5] - Tesla is losing market share, currently below 50%, down from 63% in 2022, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [6] Valuation and Estimates - Ford's stock has outperformed the Zacks Automotive-Domestic industry, gaining 18.6% year to date compared to the industry's decline of 13.9% [8] - The stock appears undervalued with a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.29, significantly below the industry's 2.79 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 EPS has increased by 2 cents and 5 cents, respectively, in the past week [11]

Core Insights - Ford Motor Company reported $46.94 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 4.8% and a surprise of +12.52% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $41.72 billion [1] - The EPS for the same period was $0.37, down from $0.47 a year ago, with an EPS surprise of +8.82% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.34 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Wholesale Units for Ford Blue reached 696 thousand, exceeding the average estimate of 635.02 thousand [4] - Wholesale Units for Ford Pro were 429 thousand, compared to the average estimate of 377.94 thousand [4] - Wholesale Units for Ford Model e totaled 60 thousand, surpassing the average estimate of 35.7 thousand [4] - Revenues excluding Ford Credit were $46.94 billion, compared to the average estimate of $41.15 billion, reflecting a +4.8% year-over-year change [4] - Revenues from Ford Credit were $3.24 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $3.11 billion, representing an +8.1% change from the previous year [4] - Adjusted EBIT for Ford Credit was $645 million, compared to the average estimate of $431.54 million [4] - Adjusted EBIT for Ford Model e was -$1.33 billion, slightly better than the average estimate of -$1.37 billion [4] - Adjusted EBIT for Corporate Other was -$155 million, compared to the average estimate of -$289.22 million [4] - Adjusted EBIT for Ford Blue was $661 million, below the average estimate of $850.84 million [4] - Adjusted EBIT for Ford Pro was $2.32 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $2.35 billion [4] Stock Performance - Ford Motor's shares have returned -2.4% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by +3.4% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record revenue of $50 billion for Q2 2025, with an adjusted EBIT of $2.1 billion, reflecting year-over-year improvement in costs [8][32] - The full-year adjusted EBIT guidance was updated to a range of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, net of tariffs [9][38] - Adjusted free cash flow was solid at $2.8 billion, with a strong balance sheet showing over $28 billion in cash and $46 billion in liquidity [36][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ford Pro's revenue grew 11% to nearly $19 billion, with a 12.3% EBIT margin driven by a strong product lineup and disciplined pricing [33] - Model E revenue more than doubled to $2.4 billion, with margins improving nearly 44 points due to a favorable product mix [34] - Ford Blue earned nearly $700 million in the quarter, reflecting profitable market share gains and higher net pricing [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., Ford's sales grew 7 times faster than the industry, with market share up 1.7 points sequentially [20] - The company sold more electrified vehicles than its two main domestic rivals combined, with EVs and hybrids making up close to 14% of the U.S. mix [21] - Outside the U.S., Ford gained market share in key regions such as Canada, Europe, South America, and the Middle East [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is shifting capital towards Ford Pro, reallocating resources from future EV programs to accelerate growth in high-margin services [10] - Ford aims to enhance its product lineup with a focus on trucks and iconic products, while also investing in low CO2 emissions technologies [14] - The company is committed to improving vehicle quality and reducing warranty costs, with a focus on achieving world-class vehicle quality [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the impact of tariffs, estimating a net headwind of about $2 billion for the year, while expressing confidence in the company's cycle plan [13][39] - The management team emphasized the importance of capital efficiency and cost improvement, with a strong balance sheet providing flexibility to invest through economic downturns [38][40] - The company is optimistic about the future, with a focus on sustainable improvements in warranty and material costs [44] Other Important Information - The company announced a regular dividend of 15 cents per share, payable on September 2, reflecting its commitment to return capital to shareholders [38] - Ford's transformation journey is well underway, with a focus on building a higher growth, higher margin, and more capital-efficient business [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers of guidance change and improvement - Management noted that the guidance reflects strong improvement in the business, particularly in cost areas, despite absorbing larger tariffs [42][43] Question: Sustainability of market share - Management expressed confidence in sustaining market share gains into the second half of the year, supported by a strong product portfolio [61][62] Question: Balancing emissions policy and EV technology - Management highlighted the importance of transforming engineering and supply chain processes to remain competitive against global OEMs, particularly Chinese manufacturers [70][71] Question: Impact of tariffs and compliance credits - Management discussed ongoing negotiations with the administration to simplify tariffs and reduce liabilities, emphasizing the potential upside for the company [83][84] Question: Electrification initiatives and regional commitments - Management indicated a focus on partnerships for EVs and a streamlined product lineup to balance investments across different regions [99]

Ford Pro Business Performance - Ford Pro 是公司最大的优势，不仅仅是车辆，还包括软件和零部件业务[2] - Ford Pro 业务同比增长 20 亿美元，环比增长超过 30 亿美元[3] - Ford Pro 的利润率达到两位数，拥有近 80 万月度软件订阅用户[5] - Ford Pro 业务的利润中，非车辆业务占比接近 20%[6] Tariff Impact and Mitigation - 关税对增长的影响约为 30 亿美元，但公司能够抵消约三分之一[1] - 公司通过定价和供应商等方式来弥补关税带来的损失[1] - 美国汽车制造商面临着高达 50% 的钢铁和铝关税，以及高达 80% 的中国零部件关税[15] - 关税导致每辆车成本劣势约为 5000 美元至 1 万美元[17] EV and Hybrid Strategy - 公司将扩大混合动力产品线，尤其是在卡车混合动力方面[7] - 公司正在开发续航 100 英里的纯电动和总续航 700 英里的增程式电动汽车[8] - 公司将推出价格非常低廉的电动汽车，主要用于城市通勤和商业用途[9][10] - 公司新的经济型电池将在美国密歇根州的工厂生产[11] - 由于需求低于预期，公司已经调整了电动汽车的生产计划，专注于经济型和商用车型[12] Supply Chain - 电池供应链已经对市场变化做出了反应[12] - 公司正在寻求重新利用未使用的电池资产[12] Government Relations - 公司每天、每周、每月、每年都与政府部门进行对话，尤其是在关税政策方面[21] - 公司希望特朗普政府能够理解美国汽车制造商的困境，并在双边贸易协定中采取正确的措施[23][24] - 50% 的整车关税不足以支持在美国建立新工厂，需要 30%-40% 的关税才能实现[26]

Core Viewpoint - Ford is currently undervalued with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.26, which is below industry levels and its own 5-year average, indicating potential investment opportunities despite recent stock performance [1][3][19] Valuation Comparison - Ford's P/S ratio of 0.26 is lower than General Motors' (GM) 0.27 and significantly lower than Tesla's (TSLA) 9.88, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to peers [1][8] - Despite a year-to-date stock increase of approximately 7%, Ford's valuation remains attractive compared to the industry's decline of over 19% [3][19] Growth Drivers - Ford Pro's strong demand and successful launch of the Super Duty are key catalysts for future earnings growth, supported by a growing number of paid software subscriptions [10][11] - The company has a robust liquidity position with around $45 billion in liquidity, including $27 billion in cash, which supports its investment priorities [11] - Ford's dividend yield of over 5% is appealing for income-focused investors, especially compared to the S&P 500's average yield of just over 1% [12] Challenges - The EV segment is facing significant losses, with a reported loss of $5.07 billion in 2024, driven by competition and high development costs [13] - The traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) business is expected to see reduced sales, impacting profitability [14] - Tariff-related challenges are projected to have a net negative impact of approximately $1.5 billion on adjusted EBIT in 2025 [15] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year decline of 7% in sales and 40% in earnings for 2025 [16] - Recent revisions show a decrease in earnings estimates for the current quarter and upcoming periods, reflecting growing concerns about Ford's near-term performance [17] Conclusion - While Ford's stock appears cheap with a low P/S ratio and attractive dividend yield, the company faces headwinds in its EV and ICE segments, making the near-term outlook uncertain [19][20] - Existing investors may find reasons to hold due to the strong balance sheet and commitment to shareholder returns, while new investors may consider a wait-and-watch approach [20]

Core Insights - Ford and Toyota are major competitors in the global auto industry, with Toyota holding a significant lead in global sales and market capitalization [1][2] - In the U.S. market, Toyota sold 2.33 million vehicles in 2024, a 3.7% increase, while Ford sold 2.07 million vehicles, up 4.2% year over year [1] - On a global scale, Toyota sold 10.8 million vehicles compared to Ford's 4.5 million, with Toyota's market cap at approximately $250 billion versus Ford's $40 billion [2] Ford's Position - Ford remains a key player in the U.S. auto market, with popular models like the F-Series trucks and a strong presence in the SUV and crossover segments [6] - The company's hybrid strategy is gaining traction as full EV adoption slows, appealing to consumers seeking better fuel efficiency [7] - Financially, Ford exited Q1 2025 with $27 billion in cash and $45 billion in liquidity, allowing for investments in digital innovation and electrification [8] - Ford's dividend yield is approximately 6%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average, with plans to return 40-50% of free cash flow to shareholders [8] - The Ford Pro business, focused on commercial customers, is expected to drive earnings growth due to strong demand and successful product launches [10] - Challenges include declining sales in traditional gas-powered vehicles, significant losses in the EV division, and potential tariff impacts costing up to $2.5 billion [11][12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 7% decline in sales and a 40% decline in EPS for Ford in 2025 [13] Toyota's Position - Toyota is recognized for its reliability and has exceeded earnings expectations, projecting growth in revenues and vehicle volumes for fiscal 2026 [14] - The company anticipates a 21% decline in operating income due to rising material costs, currency headwinds, and potential tariff impacts [15] - Toyota expects to sell 9.8 million vehicles in fiscal 2026, an increase from 9.36 million in fiscal 2025, with a focus on hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales [16] - The hybrid-first strategy is exemplified by the RAV4, which will be sold exclusively as a hybrid or plug-in hybrid starting in 2026 [17] - Toyota raised its annual dividend to 90 yen per share for fiscal 2025 and plans to increase it to 95 yen for fiscal 2026 [18] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates an 8% growth in sales for Toyota in fiscal 2026, while earnings are expected to decline by 21% [18] Capital Efficiency and Valuation - Toyota has a return on invested capital of 4.8%, significantly higher than Ford's 1.77%, indicating better capital efficiency [19] - On a valuation basis, Toyota trades at a more attractive EV/EBITDA multiple compared to Ford, suggesting a more reasonable stock price relative to earnings [21] Conclusion - Both Ford and Toyota are navigating challenges in the evolving auto industry, with Ford having strong brand recognition and a high dividend yield, while Toyota benefits from global scale and a cautious electrification strategy [23][24] - Toyota's stronger capital discipline and strategic positioning provide it with a slight edge over Ford in the current market landscape [25]

Core Viewpoint - Ford's CEO Jim Farley warns that Trump's tariffs on imported cars and parts are expected to last at least three years, leading to industry-wide price increases and a potential loss of $1.5 billion for Ford this year [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Ford's Q1 adjusted EPS was $0.14, exceeding analysts' expectations of a loss of $0.043, with a net income of $471 million, down 64% year-over-year [3]. - The traditional vehicle segment (Ford Blue) and commercial vehicle segment (Ford Pro) performed strongly, achieving EBIT of $1.2 billion and $1.31 billion, respectively [3]. - The electric vehicle division (Model E) reported a loss of $849 million, but the loss was less than anticipated [3]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The tariffs are expected to increase costs for popular Ford models like the Bronco Sport and Maverick by $5,000 or more, leading to price hikes in the industry as early as this summer [1][3]. - Ford has withdrawn its 2025 earnings guidance, which previously estimated operating profits between $7 billion and $8.5 billion, due to the impact of tariffs [3][4]. - The company acknowledges that the tariffs and potential retaliatory measures from other countries pose significant risks to financial performance [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the news of Farley's pessimistic outlook, Ford's stock initially rose but closed with a gain of only 2.6% [1]. - The discussions between Canadian Prime Minister Carney and Trump have influenced the stock movements of Ford and other automotive companies [1].