Key Takeaways Ford's Q4 EPS is seen at 17 cents, down 56% year over year, and revenues are projected to fall 8%.F faces e-mobility headwinds after tax credit withdrawal, with EV restructuring charges of $19.5B.Ford's truck, hybrid, and Ford Pro strength lifted Q4 sales by 2.7%, with hybrid volumes up 17.6% y/y.Ford (F) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results tomorrow, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and automotive revenues is pegged at 17 ce ...

Core Viewpoint - Ford Motor Company presents an attractive long-term investment opportunity due to its low price-to-earnings ratio, strong dividend yield, and potential in profitable segments like full-size trucks and electric vehicles, but it faces significant challenges that need addressing [1][2][10] Group 1: Investment Appeal - The stock is seen as a value proposition with a price-to-earnings ratio of 11 [1] - Ford offers a lucrative dividend yield of nearly 4.5%, supplemented by special dividends during strong cash flow periods [1] - The company has a strong position in profitable segments such as full-size trucks, SUVs, and its commercial Ford Pro business, which generates recurring revenue [2] Group 2: Challenges to Address - Ford recorded a significant increase in recalls, with 153 recalls affecting approximately 13 million vehicles in the previous year, which negatively impacts its brand image and customer acquisition efforts [3][4] - Warranty costs surged by $800 million in Q2 2024, contributing to missed Wall Street estimates, highlighting the financial burden of recalls [4] - The Model-e division, responsible for electric vehicles, incurred losses exceeding $5 billion in 2024, indicating a need for strategic adjustments [7] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Ford plans to launch a more affordable midsize electric pickup by 2027, priced around $30,000, with expectations of early profitability [8] - The company has taken a $19.5 billion special charge to shift its strategy towards hybrids, which may offer better profitability compared to full-electric vehicles [9] - Innovations in assembly line processes and a new low-cost Universal EV Platform are part of Ford's strategy to reverse losses in the EV segment [8]

Core Insights - Ford's European business has faced significant challenges, including a 17% decline in sales in 2024 due to weak passenger vehicle demand, slow EV adoption, and increased competition from low-cost Chinese automakers [1][10] - The company is undergoing a restructuring process that includes job cuts and plant closures to reduce costs and focus on core areas, despite running at a loss in Europe [2][10] - Unlike General Motors, Ford is committed to remaining in the European market, believing it holds strategic and financial importance if properly reshaped [3] Restructuring Strategy - Ford's restructuring plan is based on three pillars: strengthening Ford Pro (the commercial vehicle division), refreshing the passenger vehicle lineup with multi-energy models, and optimizing the industrial footprint for cost efficiency [4][10] - The Ford Pro division has expanded beyond traditional vehicle sales to include a comprehensive ecosystem of software and services, significantly increasing vehicle uptime for customers [5] Product Development and Manufacturing - Ford plans to introduce affordable, multi-energy passenger cars and commercial vehicles by 2028 to enhance competitiveness in the market [6] - The company is reshaping its manufacturing footprint, with significant investments in electric drive units and advanced engine technology at various plants in the U.K. and Spain [7] Partnerships and Collaborations - Ford is leveraging partnerships to enhance its strategy, including a collaboration with Renault to develop low-cost EVs and co-produce commercial vans [8] - Previous alliances, such as those with Koç Holding and Volkswagen, have also contributed to the value of Ford's commercial vehicle offerings and EV production [9] Financial Performance - The restructuring efforts have led to a notable improvement in financial performance, with Ford's European loss narrowing to $52 million in Q3 2025 from approximately $440 million a year earlier [11][12] - Despite ongoing challenges, the strategy is becoming clearer and more disciplined, with potential for Europe to become a more stable contributor to Ford's overall business in the future [12] Market Position - Ford's shares have increased by 33% over the past year, outperforming the industry, and the company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 0.32, indicating a favorable valuation [13][14]

Core Insights - Ford's shares have increased over 40% in the past year, outperforming the industry, yet the company remains undervalued with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.79, lower than its peers [1] Sales Performance - Ford's U.S. vehicle sales grew by 6% year-over-year to 2.2 million vehicles in 2025, marking its best annual performance since 2019, driven by strong demand for trucks, SUVs, and hybrids [4][6] - The Ford F-Series continued to be the best-selling truck in America in 2025, with Ford ranking as the third largest automaker in the U.S. by sales volume [4] Market Outlook - Experts predict a slowdown in auto sales for 2026 due to affordability challenges, tariff issues, policy changes, and weak electric vehicle adoption [5] Strategic Shifts - Ford is pivoting towards hybrids and gas models, canceling some EV launches due to softening demand and rising costs, including redesigning the F-150 Lightning as a hybrid [8][9] - The company sold a record 228,072 hybrid vehicles in 2025, a 21.7% increase, indicating a strong hybrid strategy amid weak EV sales [7] Ford Pro Unit - Ford Pro is a key growth driver, with strong demand for Super Duty trucks and rising subscriptions, which increased by 8% to 818,000 in Q3 [10] Energy Storage Initiative - Ford is launching a battery energy storage systems business, targeting a capacity of 20 GWh by 2027, with an investment of about $2 billion over the next two years [11] Autonomy and AI Integration - The company plans to introduce Level 3 autonomous driving by 2028 and is integrating AI technology into its mobile apps and vehicles starting in 2027 [12][13] Financial Position - Ford ended Q3 2025 with approximately $54 billion in liquidity, including $33 billion in cash, and has a high dividend yield of over 4%, targeting 40-50% of free cash flow for distributions [14] Investment Potential - Despite uncertainties in the auto market for 2026, Ford's strategic initiatives and strong liquidity position it well for future growth, with a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) and a projected 31% EPS growth for 2026 [16][17]

Summary of Ford Motor Company Conference Call (November 18, 2025) Company Overview - **Company**: Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) - **Speaker**: Andrew Frick, President of Ford Blue and Model E Key Points Financial Performance and Guidance - Ford reported a strong underlying business with an EBIT guidance of **$8 billion to $8.5 billion** for the year before the Novelis fire incident, which is a **$1.5 billion to $2 billion** negative impact for Q4 [10][11] - The company managed to offset **$1 billion** of a **$2 billion** tariff headwind through market factors and pricing strategies [10][14] - The revised guidance for Q4 is **$6 billion to $6.5 billion** net of the Novelis impact [12] Tariffs and Regulatory Environment - Tariffs initially posed a significant challenge but were reduced to a **$2 billion** headwind for the year, with Ford well-positioned due to its U.S.-based manufacturing [14][18] - The company plans to incorporate tariff costs into its business model moving forward, treating them as a standard cost of doing business [19][23] - Regulatory changes are expected to provide more flexibility in production, allowing Ford to cater to natural consumer demand across various powertrains [26][29] Emissions and Electrification Strategy - Ford is adapting to changing emissions regulations, with expectations of less stringent caps under the current administration, which will allow for a broader range of vehicle offerings [29][30] - The company has invested in hybrid technology and is seeing a significant increase in hybrid vehicle sales, particularly with the F-150 [45] Ford Pro Business Segment - Ford Pro, the commercial vehicle segment, is a strategic advantage with a diverse customer base across large corporations, small businesses, and government sectors [32][33] - The company has invested over **$2 billion** in dealer infrastructure to support commercial customers, enhancing service capabilities and customer uptime [34][35] - Ford Pro Intelligence, a software offering, has led to higher customer loyalty and increased service revenue [37][38] New Product Developments - Ford is launching a **Universal Electric Vehicle (UEV)** platform aimed at producing affordable electric vehicles, with the first model expected to be a small electric pickup starting around **$30,000** [47][48] - The new manufacturing process will reduce parts and increase assembly line speed by **15%**, enhancing efficiency [49] Competitive Landscape and Market Position - Ford maintains a leading market share in the commercial vehicle sector, outselling competitors significantly [33] - The company is focused on maintaining its leadership in hybrid and electric vehicle segments while also expanding its service and software capabilities [39][40] Return to Formula 1 - Ford is excited about its return to Formula 1, which is expected to enhance brand visibility and attract top engineering talent [55][56] - The partnership with Red Bull Racing aims to leverage F1 technology for consumer vehicles, enhancing Ford's electrification efforts [56][57] Additional Insights - The company emphasizes a balanced approach to electrification, investing across multiple powertrains to meet diverse customer needs [45][51] - Ford's strategic partnerships, such as with ServiceTitan, aim to enhance fleet management solutions for commercial customers [40] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the Ford Motor Company conference call, highlighting the company's financial outlook, strategic initiatives, and market positioning.

Core Insights - Ford reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 45 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 38 cents but down from 49 cents in the same quarter last year. Consolidated revenues reached $50.5 billion, a 9.3% year-over-year increase. Total automotive revenues were $47.2 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $42.7 billion and up from $43 billion a year ago [1]. Segmental Performance - In the Ford Blue segment, total wholesale volume increased by 2% year over year to 733,000 units, exceeding expectations of 630,000 units. Revenues rose 7% year over year to $28 billion, surpassing the estimate of $23.5 billion. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) were $1.54 billion, above the projection of $925.7 million, with an EBIT margin of 5.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the same quarter in 2024 [3]. - The Ford Model e segment saw total wholesale volume rise 57% year over year to 50,000 units, though it fell short of the estimate of 57,000. Revenues jumped 52% year over year to $1.8 billion but missed the estimate of $2.6 billion. The segment reported a loss before interest and taxes of $1.4 billion, compared to an estimated loss of $1.58 billion [4]. - In the Ford Pro segment, total wholesale volume increased by 9% year over year to 373,000 units, below the expectation of 401,000. Revenues rose 11% year over year to $17.4 billion, slightly missing the expectation of $17.6 billion. EBIT was $1.98 billion, slightly below the projection of $2 billion, with an EBIT margin of 11.4% [5]. Financial Position - Ford reported adjusted free cash flow of $4.3 billion for the quarter, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $26.8 billion as of September 30, 2025. Long-term debt, excluding Ford Credit, amounted to $17.8 billion on the same date [7]. 2025 Outlook - Ford anticipates full-year 2025 adjusted EBIT in the range of $6-$6.5 billion, down from $10.2 billion in 2024 and the previous forecast of $6.5-$7.5 billion due to the impact of the Novelis plant fire. Adjusted free cash flow is expected to be between $2-$3 billion, down from prior guidance of $3.5-$4.5 billion and $6.7 billion recorded in 2024. Capital expenditures are projected to be around $9 billion [8].

Core Insights - Ford Motor Co. reported third-quarter earnings of 45 cents per share, surpassing analyst estimates of 36 cents [2] - Quarterly revenue reached $47.18 billion, exceeding the Street estimate of $43.07 billion and up from $43.06 billion in the same period last year [2] Business Segment Highlights - Ford Pro generated $2 billion in EBIT on $17.4 billion in revenue, with paid software subscriptions increasing by 8% sequentially to 818,000 subscribers [6] - Ford Model e reported a third-quarter EBIT loss of $1.4 billion, driven by new products in Europe that contributed to revenue and volume growth [6] - Ford Blue achieved $1.5 billion in EBIT, with revenue growth outpacing wholesale unit growth [6] - Ford Credit reported third-quarter earnings before taxes of $631 million, marking a 16% increase compared to the previous year [6] Management Commentary - CEO Jim Farley emphasized the strong performance with over $50 billion in revenue, attributing it to the quality of products and services, as well as a disciplined focus on cost [4] - Farley stated that the company is becoming stronger and more agile as it approaches 2026, with a commitment to strategic execution in propulsion, partnerships, and technology [4]

Core Insights - Ford Motor Company is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.38 per share, reflecting a decline of 22.5% year over year, with revenues forecasted at $42.26 billion, a decrease of 1.9% compared to the previous year [1] Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for 'Revenues- Company excluding Ford Credit' is $41.30 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of -4.1% [4] - Analysts project 'Revenues- Ford Credit' to be $3.26 billion, suggesting a year-over-year increase of +4.2% [4] - 'Revenues- External Revenues- Ford Blue' is estimated at $24.12 billion, reflecting a decline of -8.1% from the prior-year quarter [4] - 'Revenues- Ford Pro' is expected to reach $16.37 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of +4.5% [5] - 'Revenues- External Revenues- Ford Model e' is projected at $2.36 billion, showing a significant increase of +101% from the previous year [5] Wholesale Units - 'Wholesale Units - Ford Blue' is estimated to be 612.82 thousand, down from 721.00 thousand year-over-year [5] - 'Wholesale Units - Ford Pro' is expected to reach 361.30 thousand, compared to 342.00 thousand in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Wholesale Units - Ford Model e' is forecasted at 56.36 thousand, up from 32.00 thousand in the same quarter of the previous year [6] Adjusted EBIT Estimates - 'Adjusted EBIT- Ford Credit' is projected to be $595.47 million, compared to $544.00 million year-over-year [6] - 'Adjusted EBIT- Ford Blue' is expected to reach $1.08 billion, down from $1.63 billion in the previous year [7] - 'Adjusted EBIT- Ford Pro' is forecasted at $2.00 billion, an increase from $1.81 billion year-over-year [7] Stock Performance - Ford Motor shares have returned +2.6% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which saw a +1.1% change [7]

Group 1 - The investment case for Ford is complex, balancing a low valuation and historical strength against challenges in a dynamic automotive industry [1] - Ford's segment performance in the first half of 2026 shows a strong commercial business in Ford Pro, while the Ford Model e segment is struggling with significant losses of $5.1 billion [2][3] - Ford Pro generated $34 billion in revenue with a 10.7% EBIT margin, while Ford Blue had $46.8 billion in revenue with a 1.6% EBIT margin, contrasting with Ford Model e's $3.6 billion revenue and a -60.5% EBIT margin [3] Group 2 - There is an argument for separating Ford Pro from the rest of the company to unlock value, as Ford transitions from internal combustion engines (ICE) to electric vehicles (EVs) [4] - Ford stock trades at 10.3 times estimated earnings for 2025, primarily driven by the Pro business, which has growth potential through recurring revenue from services [5] - CEO Jim Farley emphasizes the importance of keeping Ford Pro integrated, highlighting the risks of investing in Ford amid the need for significant EV investment [6] Group 3 - Ford has committed to a $5 billion investment in EV development, including a new $30,000 pickup truck planned for 2027 and a Universal EV Production System [7] - The crossover activities among Ford's segments indicate a strategic approach to leverage strengths across the business [9][10] - The growth in the auto market is shifting towards EVs, making it imperative for Ford to remain relevant and competitive against rivals [10][11] Group 4 - Ford's Pro segment is crucial for cash flow to support EV investments, and its dominant position in commercial vans and light trucks is at risk from competitors [11] - The investment in Ford is not merely a bet on hidden value but rather a commitment to becoming a significant player in the EV market [12]

Core Insights - Ford Motor Company (F) shares have increased by 23.4% over the past six months, while the Zacks Automotive – Domestic industry has grown by 38.4% [1] - In the first eight months of 2025, Ford's sales reached 1.49 million units, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.6%, driven by a 14% rise in electrified vehicle sales [2] - Ford's Model e segment saw revenues more than double to $2.4 billion in Q2, with significant margin improvements attributed to product mix and new model launches [6][7] Sales and Performance - Ford's vehicle lineup, including F-series trucks and various SUV models, is performing well, supported by a strong hybrid strategy [5] - Ford Pro, the commercial fleet solutions unit, has diversified its revenue streams, contributing to 17% of its EBIT, moving closer to a 20% target for next year [8] Challenges and Concerns - Ford anticipates a net tariff impact of $2 billion for 2025, up from a previous estimate of $1.5 billion, with a gross tariff cost forecast raised to $3 billion [10] - The company has issued over 100 recalls in 2025, including a recent recall of 1.45 million vehicles, which is expected to increase warranty and recall expenses, putting pressure on margins [11] Valuation and Estimates - Ford appears undervalued with a forward price/sales ratio of 0.29, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.66 [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford's EPS has seen slight upward adjustments for 2025 and 2026, indicating a positive outlook [13]