December 19, 2025 03:31 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy | Global Our Latest Views Morgan Stanley's top G10 FX strategy views including key fundamental catalysts and technical levels to watch. Key Takeaways We are neutral on the DXY with a bearish skew as hawkish foreign central banks and soft US economic data keep risks to the downside. USD View: Neutral | Skew: Bearish DXY downside risks are growing, but muted price action in response to soft US labor market and inflation data and hawkish foreign central banks sugg ...

Core Viewpoint - Advancements in electronic trading and algorithmic trading are significantly reducing volatility in the currency market, leading to a calmer trading environment that may impact market makers' profitability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Volatility - The foreign-exchange market, valued at $7.5 trillion a day, is experiencing near-record low volatility, marking a long-term decline despite occasional spikes due to events like US trade tariffs [2][4]. - The euro's intraday movements are currently less than half of the long-term average, contrasting with Treasury yields that are fluctuating in line with historical patterns [4]. Group 2: Impact of Electronic Trading - The ability for volatility to decrease rapidly has increased significantly, with market reactions to economic data now returning to normal within 30 seconds, compared to longer durations previously [3][5]. - The changing landscape of market participants, including the rise of pod shops and competing systematic strategies, is contributing to a more stable trading environment [6]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The rarity of significant volatility events is leading asset managers to adjust their strategies, moving away from using calm periods to acquire cheap hedges against potential market flare-ups [7].

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's foreign exchange market recorded a total transaction volume of 28.28 trillion yuan (approximately 3.96 trillion USD) [1] - The customer market transactions by banks amounted to 4.06 trillion yuan (about 0.57 trillion USD), while interbank market transactions reached 24.22 trillion yuan (around 3.39 trillion USD) [1] - The spot market had a cumulative transaction of 9.47 trillion yuan (approximately 1.33 trillion USD), and the derivatives market totaled 18.81 trillion yuan (about 2.63 trillion USD) [1] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative transaction volume in China's foreign exchange market was 179.15 trillion yuan (equivalent to 24.96 trillion USD) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market exhibits cyclical patterns driven by economic, policy, seasonal, emotional, and geopolitical factors [11] Group 1: Reasons for Cycles in the Forex Market - Economic cycles directly influence currency strength, with strong economies typically leading to currency appreciation and weak economies to depreciation [2] - Central bank policies, particularly interest rate cycles, are key drivers, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy often setting the trend for the dollar [2] - Seasonal patterns can cause specific currencies to exhibit regular fluctuations during certain months or quarters [2] - Market sentiment oscillates between greed and fear, impacting the performance of high-risk currencies versus safe-haven currencies [2] - Geopolitical events have their own cycles, affecting related currencies during periods of tension or resolution [2] Group 2: Identifying and Utilizing Forex Cycles - Monitoring central bank policies and economic indicators like GDP and inflation is crucial for understanding macro trends [3] - Technical analysis tools such as moving averages and oscillators can help identify market trends and potential reversal points [4] - Market sentiment can be gauged through the VIX index and CFTC positioning reports, indicating potential shifts in risk appetite [5][6] Group 3: Practical Applications of Cycles - Traders should align their strategies with prevailing cycles, such as capitalizing on the end of a rate hike cycle [7] - Recognizing turning points at the end of cycles can help capture new opportunities as trends shift [8] - Risk management is essential, as cyclical patterns are not foolproof and unexpected events can occur [8] Group 4: Key Reminders for Successful Trading - Cycles serve as a tool rather than a guaranteed method for success, emphasizing the need for continuous learning and system development [16] - Establishing a disciplined approach to trading, including strict adherence to plans and emotional control, is vital for long-term success [10]

Core Points - CME Group has opened registration for the 22nd annual CME Group University Trading Challenge, scheduled from October 5 to October 31, 2025, with a registration deadline of September 25, 2025 [1][2] - The Trading Challenge provides an educational platform for undergraduate and graduate students to manage market risks and protect mock investment portfolios [2][3] - Since its inception 22 years ago, over 35,000 students have participated in the challenge, highlighting the growing interest among young people in financial markets [3][4] - Last year, the challenge saw a record participation of 570 teams, comprising approximately 2,300 students from 180 universities across 24 countries, with Indiana University winning the 2024 competition [4] - CME Group is dedicated to educating future finance professionals about global derivatives markets and risk management through various initiatives, including the Trading Challenge and educational resources like Futures Fundamentals [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a high conviction level on several currency trades, including short USD/TWD and long EUR/INR, both rated at 4/5 [5][9][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a weaker USD trend supported by geopolitical developments, particularly the de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, which is expected to strengthen the softer USD theme [3][5]. - There is a notable shift in US portfolio allocation, with signs of slowing inflows into US equities and bonds, indicating potential reallocation into other global markets [7]. - The report highlights the importance of upcoming US labor market data, particularly the June nonfarm payrolls, which could significantly impact USD movements [7][20]. Summary by Sections Asia FX Strategy - The conviction level for short USD/TWD has been raised to 4/5, with a target of 27.0 by mid-July, reflecting strong foreign equity inflows and limited scope for the CBC to intervene [9][11]. - Long EUR/INR position has its target increased to 103, supported by the RBI's FX bias and expected continued foreign inflows [11][12]. - The report maintains a long USD/HKD position, anticipating continued HKD liquidity withdrawal by the HKMA [13]. G10 FX Strategy - Long EUR/GBP is maintained with a target of 0.8750 by end-October, driven by sticky inflation in the Eurozone and a weaker USD [20][24]. - Short USD/JPY is recommended, targeting 136 by end-September, as the risk of major JPY weakness has subsided [19][24]. - Long NZD/CAD is positioned with a target of 0.8520 by end-September, supported by improved global sentiment and a weaker USD [22][23]. Asia Rates Strategy - High conviction is maintained for pay 5y China NDIRS, expecting higher long-end rates due to anticipated stimulus measures from Beijing [25]. - In India, a 2y NDOIS receive position is maintained, with expectations for INR rates to trade in a narrow range due to recent RBI actions [26]. - The report suggests exiting pay Sep-IMM 5y NDIRS in Korea, as market pricing may be low relative to expected growth and fiscal policy [27].