Advancements in electronic trading may be crushing volatility in the currency market, making prolonged wild swings a thing of the past. That’s the view of some of the participants at an annual industry shindig in Barcelona this week, where the impact of growing automation and algorithmic trading were the hot topics. Some warned that the lack of dramatic action creates the risk that market makers may exit as it becomes harder to generate profits. Most Read from Bloomberg The comments come as volatilit ...

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's foreign exchange market recorded a total transaction volume of 28.28 trillion yuan (approximately 3.96 trillion USD) [1] - The customer market transactions by banks amounted to 4.06 trillion yuan (about 0.57 trillion USD), while interbank market transactions reached 24.22 trillion yuan (around 3.39 trillion USD) [1] - The spot market had a cumulative transaction of 9.47 trillion yuan (approximately 1.33 trillion USD), and the derivatives market totaled 18.81 trillion yuan (about 2.63 trillion USD) [1] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative transaction volume in China's foreign exchange market was 179.15 trillion yuan (equivalent to 24.96 trillion USD) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market exhibits cyclical patterns driven by economic, policy, seasonal, emotional, and geopolitical factors [11] Group 1: Reasons for Cycles in the Forex Market - Economic cycles directly influence currency strength, with strong economies typically leading to currency appreciation and weak economies to depreciation [2] - Central bank policies, particularly interest rate cycles, are key drivers, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy often setting the trend for the dollar [2] - Seasonal patterns can cause specific currencies to exhibit regular fluctuations during certain months or quarters [2] - Market sentiment oscillates between greed and fear, impacting the performance of high-risk currencies versus safe-haven currencies [2] - Geopolitical events have their own cycles, affecting related currencies during periods of tension or resolution [2] Group 2: Identifying and Utilizing Forex Cycles - Monitoring central bank policies and economic indicators like GDP and inflation is crucial for understanding macro trends [3] - Technical analysis tools such as moving averages and oscillators can help identify market trends and potential reversal points [4] - Market sentiment can be gauged through the VIX index and CFTC positioning reports, indicating potential shifts in risk appetite [5][6] Group 3: Practical Applications of Cycles - Traders should align their strategies with prevailing cycles, such as capitalizing on the end of a rate hike cycle [7] - Recognizing turning points at the end of cycles can help capture new opportunities as trends shift [8] - Risk management is essential, as cyclical patterns are not foolproof and unexpected events can occur [8] Group 4: Key Reminders for Successful Trading - Cycles serve as a tool rather than a guaranteed method for success, emphasizing the need for continuous learning and system development [16] - Establishing a disciplined approach to trading, including strict adherence to plans and emotional control, is vital for long-term success [10]

Core Points - CME Group has opened registration for the 22nd annual CME Group University Trading Challenge, scheduled from October 5 to October 31, 2025, with a registration deadline of September 25, 2025 [1][2] - The Trading Challenge provides an educational platform for undergraduate and graduate students to manage market risks and protect mock investment portfolios [2][3] - Since its inception 22 years ago, over 35,000 students have participated in the challenge, highlighting the growing interest among young people in financial markets [3][4] - Last year, the challenge saw a record participation of 570 teams, comprising approximately 2,300 students from 180 universities across 24 countries, with Indiana University winning the 2024 competition [4] - CME Group is dedicated to educating future finance professionals about global derivatives markets and risk management through various initiatives, including the Trading Challenge and educational resources like Futures Fundamentals [5][6]

Key focus and themes Global Markets Research Foreign Exchange Asia exJapan/Euro Area/Europe Softer USD drivers back in focus Considering June NFP (3 July), Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" (4 July) and the tariff deadline (9 July), where do you expect EUR/USD to trade in two weeks (current spot: 1.17)? | | ★★★★★ | | Top 5 FX and Rates Trades | | ★★★★★ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Countries | Trade | bp move | bp move from | Target | Timeline | Conviction (0-5) | | | | from start | current | ...