Summary of WH Group and Shuanghui 2Q25 Earnings Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Consumer Staples industry, specifically the pork and packaged meat sectors, highlighting the performance of WH Group and Shuanghui in 2Q25. WH Group Key Points 1. **Revenue Growth**: WH Group's revenue increased by 12% year-on-year to US$6,834 million, exceeding expectations by 2% due to higher US hog production, despite weaker fresh pork sales in China [2] 2. **EBIT Performance**: EBIT rose by 3% year-on-year to US$656 million, 6% above expectations, attributed to lower SG&A expenses and improved profitability in both China and US packaged meat businesses [2] 3. **EBIT Margin**: The implied EBIT margin for 2Q25 was 9.6%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year but 0.4 percentage points above expectations [2] 4. **Net Income**: Group level net income increased by 2% year-on-year to RMB 398 million, 7% above expectations [2] 5. **Positive Management Outlook**: Management expressed optimism regarding packaged meats in China, anticipating volume and unit profit growth in the second half of 2025 [4] 6. **US Hog Production Guidance**: Full-year guidance for US hog production profits was raised to a range of $0-$100 million, reaffirming other segment guidance amid market volatility [4] 7. **Dividend Announcement**: An interim dividend of HK$0.2 per share was announced, up from HK$0.1 in 1H24, with management indicating that full-year dividends will be based on cash flow and will not be less than 50% of net profit [4][5] Shuanghui Key Points 1. **Revenue Performance**: Shuanghui's revenue increased by 6% year-on-year, although it was 5% below expectations due to weak fresh pork sales [3] 2. **EBIT Growth**: EBIT grew by 12% year-on-year, 2% above expectations, with gross profit margin 0.9 percentage points higher than expected, partially offset by increased selling costs [3] 3. **Market Dynamics**: The overall slaughtering business faced challenges due to declining profits from frozen products and increased competition, with a noted 3% decrease in industry slaughter volume [12] Additional Insights 1. **Hog Price Outlook**: Hog prices are expected to trend downwards in the second half of 2025, with a slight rebound anticipated in July-August, but not exceeding RMB 16/kg [12] 2. **Packaged Meat Volume Growth**: In the US, packaged meat volume grew by 4.5% year-on-year in 2Q25, supported by a later Easter holiday, with management maintaining cautious full-year guidance [12] 3. **European Market Trends**: In Europe, live hog supply is expected to increase in 2025, leading to a decrease in pork prices, with sales volumes for meat products continuing to grow despite lower farming profits [12] 4. **Investment Risks**: Key risks include competition intensity in packaged meat, demand fluctuations for fresh pork, and potential food safety issues that could impact consumer trust and financial performance [15][18] This summary encapsulates the key financial metrics and management insights from the earnings call, providing a comprehensive overview of WH Group and Shuanghui's performance and outlook in the consumer staples sector.

Core Viewpoint - Smithfield Foods, Inc. has announced a quarterly dividend payment of $0.25 per share, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] Company Overview - Smithfield Foods, Inc. is a leading American food company specializing in packaged meats and fresh pork products, with a diverse brand portfolio and strong relationships with U.S. farmers and customers [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on WH Group with a 12-month price target of HK$8.6 per share, indicating an upside of 15.9% from the current price of HK$7.42 [7]. - A "Neutral" rating is assigned to Shuanghui with an unchanged 12-month price target of Rmb25.2 per share, reflecting a modest upside of 2.4% from the current price of Rmb24.62 [8][18]. Core Insights - WH Group is expected to see a cyclical recovery in its US hog production business, with full-year profit forecasts uplifted to US$67 million, significantly above the company's guidance range [9][14]. - The China operations of WH Group are projected to return to a growth trajectory, with operating profit expected to grow by 8% year-over-year in 2Q25, following a decline of 14% in 1Q25 [9][10]. - The report anticipates WH Group's recurring operating profit in 2Q25 to grow approximately 13% year-over-year, one of the highest among traditional food companies [9][15]. Summary by Sections WH Group Financials - WH Group's market capitalization is HK$95.2 billion (approximately US$12.1 billion) with a revenue forecast of US$25.9 billion for 2025 [7]. - The company is expected to achieve an EBITDA of US$3.2 billion in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 8x for 2025E and a dividend yield of 7% [7]. - The report highlights a projected EPS of US$0.12 for 2025, with a consistent growth trajectory anticipated in subsequent years [7]. Shuanghui Financials - Shuanghui's market capitalization is Rmb85.3 billion (approximately US$11.9 billion) with a revenue forecast of Rmb59.7 billion for 2025 [8]. - The company is expected to achieve an EBITDA of Rmb8.8 billion in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 17.8x for 2025E and a dividend yield of 5.5% [8]. - The report projects an EPS of Rmb1.48 for 2025, indicating stable performance in the coming years [8]. Operational Insights - WH Group's China business is expected to stabilize in packaged meat and narrow upstream losses, although fresh meat remains under pressure due to a tough comparison base [9][10]. - The US business is projected to see a 3% year-over-year sales growth in packaged meat, with EBIT expected to decline by 3% year-over-year [13][14]. - The international segment is anticipated to trend upwards sequentially, with efficiency enhancements contributing to stable performance [15].

Investment Rating - The report initiates a Buy rating for WH Group with a 12-month target price (TP) of HK$8.6 per share, and a Neutral rating for Shuanghui with a TP of Rmb25.2 per share [4][25]. Core Insights - WH Group is the largest pork player globally, with a vertically integrated business model spanning hog production to packaged meat, and a significant presence in China, the US, and Europe [1][15]. - The company offers compelling shareholder returns with a dividend yield of 6%, one of the highest in the consumer staples sector, and potential share price upside of 26% [2][20]. - WH Group's operating profit (OP) is expected to grow at 6% year-on-year in 2025, driven by 4% growth in China, 7% in the US, and 10% in Europe, supported by favorable feed costs and ongoing operational efficiencies [2][24]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - WH Group operates a vertically integrated business model from hog production to packaged meat, with significant market shares in China (32% of sales), the US (53% of sales), and Europe (15% of sales) [1][15]. Financial Performance - The report anticipates WH Group's OP growth of 6% year-on-year in 2025, with specific growth rates of 4% in China, 7% in the US, and 10% in Europe, primarily due to stable hog prices and resilient packaged meat demand [2][24]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow, supporting its dividend payout ratio, with a forecasted free cash flow conversion rate of approximately 80% in 2026-27 [20][71]. Valuation - WH Group is valued attractively at 4x EV/EBITDA and 7x PE, with a potential re-rating opportunity as the US business stabilizes [3][25]. - The report highlights a significant valuation gap, with WH Group's current trading value reflecting only 40%-50% of the proportionate Smithfield Foods (SFD) market cap [3][27]. Market Dynamics - The report identifies three key themes affecting WH Group: the pork cycle, competition dynamics, and operating efficiency, with a focus on the company's leading market share and comprehensive product portfolio [16][17]. - Shuanghui, as the largest processed packaged meat player in China, is expected to maintain defensiveness amid pork cycles, with a track record of passing through inflation during hog upcycles [5][12]. Growth Outlook - The report projects a small decline in packaged meat OP in China, offset by growth in fresh meat OP, with expectations of breakeven in hog and poultry production [24][23]. - The US business is anticipated to recover from losses in 2024 to profits in 2025, while Europe is expected to see a 10% growth driven by acquisitions and favorable market conditions [24][25].