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Nvidia: Momentum Slows, but AI Tailwinds Keep Long-Term Outlook Strong
Investing· 2025-11-28 08:05
Core Viewpoint - Nvidia shares are experiencing technical fatigue after a significant rally, but the company's strong fundamentals in the semiconductor and AI sectors support a positive long-term outlook [1][5][14]. Technical Analysis - Nvidia recently closed near $180, below its 50-day moving average of approximately $187, indicating a shift in short-term sentiment [2]. - The RSI (14) is around 44, suggesting weakening bullish momentum [2]. - Key support levels are identified at $175–178, with a significant support at $153 (200-day moving average) [4][13]. Fundamental Analysis - Nvidia's data center segment, driven by H100 and GH200 GPUs, is the largest and fastest-growing revenue source, showing triple-digit year-on-year growth [6]. - Gross margins remain near historical highs due to significant operating leverage from Nvidia's fabless model and dominance in high-margin AI silicon [7]. - Management maintains a strong forward guidance, indicating continued optimism about future performance [8]. Market Position - Nvidia trades at a premium compared to the semiconductor sector based on forward P/E and price-to-sales metrics, which supports its long-term investment case despite near-term volatility [8]. - The demand for next-generation GPUs is expected to exceed supply into 2025, with Nvidia maintaining a near-monopoly in high-performance AI GPUs, enhancing its pricing power [12]. Overall Outlook - Short-term technical indicators are bearish-to-neutral, with potential for sideways movement as the market digests previous gains [9][14]. - Long-term fundamentals remain strong, anchored by Nvidia's leadership in AI computing and robust revenue growth, suggesting opportunities for investors to accumulate shares during dips [14].