Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the impressive financial performance of Nvidia does not negate the existence of a potential bubble, emphasizing the distinction between wealth and money as a fundamental concept in understanding market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Understanding Wealth and Money - It is crucial to differentiate between financial wealth and money, as bubbles arise when the total financial wealth significantly exceeds the total money supply [2]. - A bubble can burst when the demand for money forces individuals to sell their wealth for cash, leading to a market collapse [2]. Group 2: Financial Wealth Dynamics - Financial wealth can be easily created, but this does not equate to real value, as seen in inflated valuations like Nvidia's $5 trillion market cap, which may not reflect true asset value [3][4]. - Financial wealth holds no value unless converted into spendable cash, highlighting the importance of liquidity in assessing market stability [3]. Group 3: Market Risks and Dynamics - The article illustrates that when everyone attempts to sell their assets simultaneously due to a liquidity crunch, prices can plummet, leading to a market crash [4]. - The current AI sector, particularly Nvidia, is amplifying risks due to wealth concentration among a few top companies and individuals, exacerbating income inequality [4]. Group 4: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia is positioned as a leading player in the AI sector, boasting a market cap that surpasses major companies like Apple and Microsoft, with a third-quarter profit of $57 billion and a 65% increase in net profit [4][5]. - Despite its strong financials, Nvidia's valuation may be unsustainable, likening it to a "tree" with shallow roots, vulnerable to market fluctuations [5][6]. Group 5: Potential Triggers for Market Correction - The article identifies three potential triggers for Nvidia's market correction: rising interest rates, the introduction of a wealth tax in California, and increased competition from other tech companies [13][14][15]. - A proposed 5% wealth tax targeting billionaires could force significant asset sales, leading to a liquidity crisis in the market [13]. Group 6: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - Nvidia's competitive edge, primarily its CUDA ecosystem, is under threat as major clients like Microsoft and Google develop their own chips, reducing dependency on Nvidia's products [10][11]. - The emergence of alternative technologies and competitors like AMD and Huawei is eroding Nvidia's pricing power and market dominance [12]. Group 7: Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment - The article highlights the contrasting behaviors of different investor groups, with hedge funds hedging their positions while retail investors remain overly optimistic about Nvidia's future [17]. - Ordinary investors, often unaware of the underlying risks, may become the most vulnerable in the event of a market downturn, as they are less prepared for potential losses [17]. Group 8: Conclusion and Market Outlook - The narrative surrounding Nvidia's growth may be built on speculative beliefs rather than solid fundamentals, suggesting that the current valuation could be unsustainable [22]. - The article concludes that while the AI revolution may be genuine, the bubble surrounding Nvidia's valuation could burst, emphasizing the importance of risk awareness in investment decisions [22].

这不仅是刘芹个人有过的困惑，也是整个中国创投圈的集体焦虑。人们在问：在这个不再有简单模式创新红利的时代，该如何自 处？是固守旧日的荣光，还是在完全陌生的领域里从零开始？ 刘芹选择了后者，但他并没有用激昂的口号来掩饰转型的痛苦，而是选择剖析自己作为一名"过时投资人"的心路历程。从他的文字 里，能看到一种与时代和自我的和解：接受焦虑是一种常态。而在所有变量都在剧烈波动的当下，唯一不变的最优策略，或许就是 保持在这个游戏里，不要离场，持续成长。 「2025尾声」仍在征集之中，欢迎商业世界和资本市场的思考者们通过后台或chenzhiyan@36kr.com与我们联系。相信，时代变幻， 唯真正的思考不灭。 「 Test early, fail fast, learn faster. 」 文 ｜ 五源资本 刘芹 又到年末，在各种年度盘点、未来预测出街之前，「暗涌Waves」邀请了一级市场里以思考性著称的投资人们，分享一年尾声时自 己最想说的话。这是第一篇，来自五源资本创始合伙人刘芹。 这篇文章来自五源资本近期的创始人年会上刘芹的开场演讲。今年大会的主题是"Prompt()·涌现"，它指向当下这个没有标准答案的 时代，AI ...

Core Insights - Nvidia is positioning itself as the foundational platform for AI, moving beyond being just a chip vendor to becoming the operating system of AI [2][6] - The company's architecture is described as the only one capable of running every major AI model, indicating a significant competitive advantage [2][3] - Nvidia's strategy focuses on ecosystem expansion through its CUDA platform, creating a flywheel effect that strengthens its market position [4] Group 1: Market Positioning - Nvidia's platform is now integral to every major AI model, emphasizing its dominance in the AI landscape [2][3] - The company is experiencing increasing customer interest as clients explore alternatives, suggesting strong momentum in demand [6] Group 2: Strategic Focus - Nvidia's investments are aimed at expanding the reach of its ecosystem, positioning its strategic moves as essential for growth rather than financial risk [4] - The company's ubiquity in cloud services and AI models creates a significant competitive moat, as enterprises prefer a single, comprehensive platform [5]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来 源 ： 内容来自 wccftech 。 有趣的是，Jensen指出，对于云服务提供商（CSP）而言，在数据中心部署"随机ASIC"远不如选 择NVIDIA的技术栈来得理想，因为NVIDIA的产品应用范围更广。因此，Jensen最终认为，大型 科技公司提供的定制芯片在"工程"层面仍无法与NVIDIA匹敌。而且，即便他们能够复制NVIDIA 的计算能力，NVIDIA也拥有名为CUDA的强大软件栈，这才是真正吸引业界目光的关键所在。 点这里加关注，锁定更多原创内容 英伟达首席执行官再次就与谷歌和亚马逊等ASIC制造商的竞争发表评论，声称没有多少团队能做 到"绿色团队"所做的事。 自从谷歌等公司发布最新解决方案以来，围绕英伟达与ASIC芯片的争论愈演愈烈，其核心观点 是，随着世界从训练工作负载转向推理工作负载，英伟达的技术栈是可以被替代的。在最近的第三 季度财报电话会议上，首席执行官黄仁勋谈到了大型科技公司内部的ASIC芯片建设，当被问及这 些项目是否会导致实际的大规模部署时，英伟达首席执行官是这样回答的： 分析师问到：Jensen，这个问题是问你的。考虑到你宣布的与An ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来 源 ： 内容来自 wccftech 。 英伟达首席执行官再次就与谷歌和亚马逊等ASIC制造商的竞争发表评论，声称没有多少团队能做 到"绿色团队"所做的事。 自从谷歌等公司发布最新解决方案以来，围绕英伟达与ASIC芯片的争论愈演愈烈，其核心观点是， 随着世界从训练工作负载转向推理工作负载，英伟达的技术栈是可以被替代的。在最近的第三季度财 报电话会议上，首席执行官黄仁勋谈到了大型科技公司内部的ASIC芯片建设，当被问及这些项目是 否会导致实际的大规模部署时，英伟达首席执行官是这样回答的： 分析师问到：Jensen，这个问题是问你的。考虑到你宣布的与Anthropologie的交易以及你客户的整 体规模，我很好奇你对AI ASIC或专用XPU在这些架构构建中所扮演的角色有何看法？你是否注意 到，你过去一直相当坚定地认为，其中一些项目最终都无法真正部署？ 黄仁勋回应道：是的。非常感谢，我也很感激你的提问。首先，你不是在和团队竞争——抱歉，是和 公司竞争，你是在和团队竞争。而且——世界上真正擅长构建这些极其复杂系统的团队并不多。 如 果 你 仍 然 不 明 白 Jen ...

财报公布后，包括AMD、博通在内的AI生态系统相关股票最初受到提振，但随后均随大盘回落。德意志银行分析师Ross Seymore虽认可业绩亮 眼，但指出股票"估值合理"，维持中性评级。 英伟达CEO黄仁勋在财报电话会议上直言： 有很多关于AI泡沫的讨论，但从我们的角度看，情况截然不同。 这一表态试图打消市场疑虑。然而，分析认为指望黄仁勋承认泡沫存在本就不现实——没有哪个"卖铲子"的人会告诉淘金者山里没有金子。 业绩超预期但仍存争议 英伟达本次财报表现超过了市场的最乐观预期。 公司预计第四季度营收将达到约650亿美元，显著高于市场预期。更引人注目的是，黄仁勋在华盛顿的演讲中透露，未来六个财季，仅Blackwell 和Rubin产品线在海外市场的销售额就将达到5000亿美元。 Quilter Cheviot全球科技研究主管Ben Barringer表示，英伟达在财报电话会议上"试图反驳几乎所有看空理由"，包括扩展定律、超大规模客户资本 支出以及主权AI等各个层面。 华尔街见闻提及，例如面对市场关注的"循环融资"风险。黄仁勋解释称，对OpenAI、Anthropic等公司的战略投资是为了深化技术合作、扩大 CUDA ...

Core Insights - Nvidia's earnings report has alleviated some concerns regarding the sustainability of the AI stock rally, with analysts suggesting that the results will stabilize the AI trade as the year ends [1][4][6] - The market's reaction to Nvidia's report was mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite initially rising over 2% before falling nearly 2% in the afternoon, indicating ongoing uncertainty about AI stocks [1][2] Nvidia's Earnings Performance - Nvidia reported a 62% increase in revenue, reaching $57 billion last quarter, and projected sales of $65 billion for the current quarter [3][4] - Gross margins improved and are expected to widen, reflecting strong demand for AI infrastructure [3][5] Market Sentiment and Analyst Reactions - Wall Street analysts expressed optimism about Nvidia's results, suggesting that they would relieve some pressure on AI stocks and support the overall AI market [4][6] - Despite the positive outlook, some market participants remain skeptical about the long-term profitability of AI investments, questioning whether customers will generate returns from the hardware purchased [7][8] Concerns About AI Bubble - The debate surrounding the AI bubble intensified, with some arguing that Nvidia's growth could indicate an overvaluation in the sector [4][5] - Investors are advised to be discerning, as concerns about heavy spending and asset depreciation persist, particularly for companies heavily investing in data centers [8]

Nvidia (NVDA) took its detractors to task during the company's Q3 earnings call on Wednesday, with both CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress launching broadsides against investor concerns related to an AI bubble. Huang didn't dance around the topic, immediately addressing it in his prepared statement and laying out why he believes Nvidia is uniquely positioned to continue leading the AI market. "There's been a lot of talk about an AI bubble," Huang began his remarks. "From our vantage point, we see som ...

自2023年ChatGPT引爆生成式AI革命以来，智算需求呈爆炸式增长。进入2025年，随着大量AI应用上 线，高端GPU"一卡难求"，算力愈发成为核心生产资料。 "除非量子计算、光子计算能够大规模替代硅基计算，否则后摩尔时代一定是体系结构的天下。"11月14 日，容芯致远联合创始人、CTO石旭在21世纪卓越董事会（苏州站）活动上表示。 但当前，多卡协同工作依然存在不少通信瓶颈。 石旭告诉21世纪经济报道记者，传统铜互连的高速互联方式，只能提供几十厘米级的低延迟互联能力。 这不仅使得在设备内部构建8卡甚至更多GPU设备变得愈发困难，而且也对高功耗的散热设计提出了挑 战。 在石旭看来，单纯依靠提升芯片制程来提高芯片性能、进而优化计算机系统性能的路径已走到尽头，只 有算力芯片、交换芯片、软件生态协同更新，才能实现计算机系统的性能迭代。"因此英伟达不仅做算 力芯片（GPU），还做网络芯片（收购Mellanox）、交换芯片（NVSwitch）以及软件生态 （CUDA）。" 从通算到智算 据统计，2023年中国通算服务器销量为470万台，智算服务器销量为15万台。而到了2025年上半年，通 算服务器销量萎缩到100多万 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's FY26Q3 financial report indicates a robust demand for AI computing power, with a significant revenue forecast of $500 billion from the Blackwell and Rubin platforms by the end of 2026, amidst a backdrop of global GPU shortages and a backlog of 5 million orders [1][2][30]. Financial Performance - Revenue reached $57.01 billion, exceeding expectations by nearly $2 billion and showing a year-over-year increase of 62% [2][3]. - Adjusted net profit was $31.7 billion, translating to an average daily profit of $350 million, surpassing the annual revenue of many tech companies [2][4]. - Adjusted gross margin was 73.6%, with a target of 75% for FY27, reflecting improved profitability [5][7]. Business Segments - Data center revenue was $51.2 billion, accounting for 90% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 66% [9]. - The computing business grew by 56%, supported by the GB300 product line [10]. - Networking revenue doubled to $8.2 billion, driven by NVLink and Spectrum-X [13]. - Gaming revenue was $4.3 billion, up 30% year-over-year, while professional visualization and automotive segments also showed strong growth [16]. Demand and Orders - Nvidia reported a staggering demand for GPUs, with a backlog of 5 million units and a projected revenue visibility of $500 billion from AI projects through 2026 [18][30]. - Major partnerships include a 1 GW computing power agreement with Anthropic and a three-year supply deal with Saudi Arabia for 400,000 to 600,000 GPUs [18]. Technological Advancements - The Blackwell platform, particularly the GB300, is expected to dominate the market, offering performance improvements over previous models [19]. - The upcoming Rubin platform, set to launch in late 2026, aims for significant performance enhancements [19][31]. Strategic Partnerships and Supply Chain - Nvidia's growth is supported by strategic partnerships across various sectors, including collaborations with OpenAI and traditional industries like Caterpillar and Toyota [22][25]. - The company is focused on building a resilient global supply chain, with key partnerships with TSMC and other suppliers to ensure production capacity [26][27]. Future Outlook - Nvidia's financial results challenge the notion of an AI bubble, demonstrating real demand and profitability in the AI sector [30]. - Key indicators for future growth include meeting revenue targets for FY26Q4, successful launch of the Rubin platform, and maintaining supply chain stability [30][31].