Core Viewpoint - China National Pharmaceutical Group announced the acquisition of 95.09% equity in Lixin Pharmaceutical for up to $951 million, with a net payment of approximately $501 million after accounting for cash and bank deposits [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition price is set at no more than $951 million, equivalent to approximately 6.8 billion RMB [1] - After excluding estimated cash and bank deposits of about $450 million, the net payment for the acquisition will be around $501 million, or approximately 3.6 billion RMB [1] - Lixin Pharmaceutical will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of China National Pharmaceutical Group following the completion of the transaction [1] Group 2: Technology Platforms and Pipeline - Lixin Pharmaceutical has four differentiated technology platforms that will enhance the self-research capabilities of China National Pharmaceutical Group [1] - The platforms include specific antibody development for tumor microenvironment antigens, antibody development for difficult drug targets, a new generation of antibody-drug conjugates, and conditionally activated immune cell connectors [1] - Lixin has eight candidate drugs in clinical stages, with significant licensing agreements totaling $4 billion for PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody and GPRC5D ADC [1] Group 3: Clinical Trials and Market Potential - The LM-108 monoclonal antibody, a leading candidate in the pipeline, shows first-in-class potential and has demonstrated excellent efficacy in clinical trials [1] - The median progression-free survival (mPFS) for LM-108 in various patient groups reached 8.1, 13.2, and 6.9 months [1] - The global peak sales potential for LM-108 is estimated to reach $8 billion [1] Group 4: Financial Outlook - The acquisition is expected to generate licensing revenue in the short term, with a projected increase in adjusted net profit by 6-10% for 2025-2027 [2] - The DCF target price has been raised to HKD 8.0, maintaining a buy rating due to the anticipated contribution from Lixin's rich pipeline [2]

Core Viewpoint - China National Pharmaceutical Group (中生制药) has acquired the innovative drug company Lixin Pharmaceutical (礼新医药) for $950 million (approximately 6.8 billion RMB), with the deal being characterized as a high-value acquisition despite initial market skepticism regarding Lixin's product pipeline [1][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition was completed in a short span of two months, indicating strong mutual interest from both parties [1][4]. - The net cost of the acquisition is effectively reduced to $500 million after accounting for Lixin's cash reserves of $450 million and other operational expenses [4]. - Lixin Pharmaceutical has a strong track record, having raised significant funding and established partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies like AstraZeneca and Merck [1][5]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Lixin's valuation during its last funding round was approximately 2.9 billion RMB, and the acquisition price reflects a significant return for early investors, exceeding 100% [4][5]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance China National Pharmaceutical's revenue from innovative products, which is projected to rise from 16% in 2018 to 42% by 2024 [9]. Group 3: Product Pipeline and Development - Lixin has developed a robust pipeline with eight self-researched innovative drugs currently in clinical trials, including promising candidates like CCR8 monoclonal antibody LM-108 and CLDN18.2 ADC drug LM-302 [6][11]. - The acquisition will bolster China National Pharmaceutical's capabilities in large molecule drug development, particularly in oncology, where it has 36 candidates in clinical development [9][10]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning - The acquisition aligns with China National Pharmaceutical's strategy to transition from traditional pharmaceutical operations to a more innovation-driven model, aiming to launch five innovative products annually over the next three years [9]. - Lixin's integration is seen as a strategic move to enhance R&D capabilities and accelerate the commercialization of innovative drugs in a competitive market [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Biologic Products (1177 HK) with a target price of HKD 8.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.3% from the current price of HKD 6.82 [4][10][15]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Lixin Pharmaceutical for USD 5 billion is expected to enhance the company's differentiated pipeline assets and technology platforms, leading to an upward revision of the target price [2][7]. - The integration of Lixin's four unique technology platforms is anticipated to accelerate the development of China Biologic's self-researched products, with significant potential contributions to revenue growth [7][10]. - The report highlights that Lixin has eight drug candidates in clinical stages, including promising candidates with licensing agreements worth up to USD 4 billion with major pharmaceutical companies [7][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for China Biologic Products are as follows: - 2023: RMB 26,199 million - 2024: RMB 28,866 million - 2025E: RMB 34,175 million (growth of 18.4%) - 2026E: RMB 38,706 million (growth of 13.3%) - 2027E: RMB 43,606 million (growth of 12.7%) [3][16]. - Net profit estimates are projected to increase from RMB 2,332 million in 2023 to RMB 5,340 million by 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [3][16]. - The report also notes an adjustment in the net profit forecast for 2025-2027, with an increase of 6-10% due to cost reduction efforts [7][9]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value of China Biologic Products at HKD 8.00 per share, based on projected free cash flows and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [10][11]. - The enterprise value is calculated at RMB 152,132 million, with a net cash position of RMB 2,478 million [10][11]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 113.13%, with a 52-week high of HKD 6.82 and a low of HKD 2.73 [6][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights the acquisition of 95.09% of Shanghai Lixin Pharmaceutical for approximately $500 million, accelerating the company's globalization efforts [5][7] - The innovative pipeline of Lixin, including dual antibodies and ADCs, is expected to significantly enhance the company's core competitiveness in the oncology field [7] - The financial forecasts indicate a strong growth trajectory for revenue and net profit, with expected net profits of RMB 4.639 billion, RMB 5.003 billion, and RMB 5.405 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 32.56%, 7.84%, and 8.05% [6][8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 26,199 million in 2023, RMB 28,866 million in 2024, RMB 32,562 million in 2025, RMB 36,315 million in 2026, and RMB 40,723 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of -8.97%, 10.18%, 12.80%, 11.53%, and 12.14% [6][8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are RMB 0.13 for 2023, RMB 0.19 for 2024, RMB 0.25 for 2025, RMB 0.27 for 2026, and RMB 0.29 for 2027 [6][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 7.7% in 2023, increasing to 12.7% in 2025, and then slightly decreasing to 11.5% by 2027 [6][8]

【导读】中国生物制药拟以不超过 9.5 亿美元的对价，收购礼新医药 95.09% 股权 中国基金报记者 卢鸰 在中国创新药的出海大潮之下，先后与知名跨国药企阿斯利康、默沙东合作，近三年对外授 权总额近 300 亿元人民币的 " 明星 Biotech" 礼新医药，被港股创新药龙头中国生物制药收 入囊中。 中国生物制药 7 月 15 日盘后发布公告称， 7 月 15 日交易时段后，买方、卖方、礼新医药 及 Ying Qin Zang 订立买卖协议。据此，中国生物制药同意以不超过 9.5 亿美元（约 68 亿 元人民币）对价，收购礼新医药 95.09% 股权。剔除 礼新 医药于交割日的估计现金及银行 存款约 4.5 亿美元，中国生物制药就收购事项待作出的付款净额约为 5 亿美元。 此前，中国生物制药在参与礼新医药 C 轮融资时，获得其 4.91% 股权。 此次交易完成后， 礼新医药将成为中国生物制药的全资子公司。 年初至今，中国生物制药股价最大涨幅达 140% 。 7 月 15 日，中国生物制药股价以 6.37 港元 / 股收盘，创三年多来新高，最新市值为 1195 亿港元。 2025 年 2 月， PD-1 经治 ...

目前礼新医药有8项资产正在开展临床中，包括重磅产品LM-299（PD-1/VEGF双抗）、LM-305 （GPRC5D ADC）、LM-108（CCR8单抗）、LM-302（Claudin 18.2 ADC）等，还有约20个项目处在临 床前研究阶段。 中国生物制药方面表示，礼新医药主要研发和管理团队，将连同其备受关注的双抗、ADC等技术平台 一起加入公司，推动公司的全面创新和国际化业务再加速。 作为一家中国本土传统药企，近年来，中国生物制药已在加大力度向创新药企转型。根据中国生物制药 今年6月份发布的公告，公司创新产品收入占比已从2018年的16%提升至2024年的42%，预期2025年将 突破50%。未来三年，公司计划每年上市约5款创新产品，到2027年创新产品收入占比有望进一步提升 至60%。 2023年12月以来，中国本土生物科技行业开始出现被并购的案例。如2023年12月底，亘喜生物以12亿美 元卖身阿斯利康，成为首家被跨国药企并购的中国创新药企。继亘喜生物之后，其他国产生物科技企业 被跨国药企并购的消息接踵而至，如信瑞诺医药并入诺华、葆元医药并入Nuvation Bio、普方生物并入 Genmab等 ...